Blyatskrieg

[jimbob]

While we're on the subject of things the west should do, this is one of them.

Obviously Brimstone is very effective when deployed from aircraft, but being able to take a relatively small vehicle and give it that much precision firepower allows ground forces to very effectively control a wide area against all sorts of vehicles. This is a stopgap, but I know there's proposals to mount similar on a Boxer chassis, and it seems to be a good idea.

no a link to a particular tweet, just the account

[EACLucifer]

While we're on the subject of things the west should do, this is one of them.

Obviously Brimstone is very effective when deployed from aircraft, but being able to take a relatively small vehicle and give it that much precision firepower allows ground forces to very effectively control a wide area against all sorts of vehicles. This is a stopgap, but I know there's proposals to mount similar on a Boxer chassis, and it seems to be a good idea.

no a link to a particular tweet, just the account

And the wrong account, not sure how I managed that. This is the correct link. Van full of Brimstone missiles.

Of all the things I could have accidentally pasted in, an open-source mapmaker's twitter account is not the most embarassing.

[jimbob]

It looks as though the Vsevolod Bobrov ( a logistics ship) has caught fire after being hit near Snake Island.

[EACLucifer]

In other news, a Project 11356R Frigate was seen in Sevastopol yesterday. Grey radomes, so more likely to be Admiral Makarov than Admiral Essen.

[lpm]

While we're on the subject of things the west should do, this is one of them.

Obviously Brimstone is very effective when deployed from aircraft, but being able to take a relatively small vehicle and give it that much precision firepower allows ground forces to very effectively control a wide area against all sorts of vehicles. This is a stopgap, but I know there's proposals to mount similar on a Boxer chassis, and it seems to be a good idea.

no a link to a particular tweet, just the account

And the wrong account, not sure how I managed that. This is the correct link. Van full of Brimstone missiles.

Of all the things I could have accidentally pasted in, an open-source mapmaker's twitter account is not the most embarassing.

I assume that's a training exercise. It can't be a good idea to crowd round with your mobile phones if counter battery fire is going to come in.

[headshot]

It literally says in the tweet that it's likely to be a training exercise.

[TopBadger]

A new instrument of war... the E-bike!

Looks pretty handy.

[lpm]

It literally says in the tweet that it's likely to be a training exercise.

So it does. I was looking at the fireworks going whoosh.

[EACLucifer]

It looks like Israel has now allowed Estonia to transfer a state of the art Blue Spear missile complex to Ukraine. Blue Spear is a development of the Israeli Gabriel anti-shipping missile, with a range of almost 300km and the ability to hit sea and land targets, and is reportedly designed to be difficult to counter. Estonia acquired the system less than a year ago, and this would probably be the most advanced weapon transferred to Ukraine so far, more so even than Brimstone.

This will make things much, much more difficult for the Black Sea Fleet, as it puts even Sevastopol in range of Ukraine held coastline. Though it has the range to threaten the Kerch Straits bridge, it probably does not have a sufficient warhead to destroy it.

[EACLucifer]

A new instrument of war... the E-bike!

Looks pretty handy.

The use of small motorbikes and even bicycles in warfare goes back a very long way, both as despatch riders and ways to improve infantry mobility. Bicycles allowed troops to cover more ground for less effort, and then generally dismount, though attempts to mount weapons directly onto bicycles have happened, and of course there's armed sidecar combos. I read a genuine and serious discussion not long ago about how insurgents can overcome counter-insurgency operations by using swarms of motorcycle dragoons.

An e-bike is a logical extension of that, as it's smaller and handier than a motorcycle, faster and less effort than a bicycle, and nearly silent.

It also allows for various cycle of violence related jokes.

[EACLucifer]

Thread about the destruction of a tank deep inside Russian occupied territory

The destruction of the tank has been geolocated to Novoazovsk, occupied by Russia since 2014 and about 100km from the front line. It's not clear what destroyed it, and it could be SOF or partisans. It's also not clear how it was done, but IED and AT mine are both possibilities. The thread discusses possible use of loitering munitions. If that's the case, then Ukrainian SOF are confident in their ability to sneak deep into occupied territory.

[EACLucifer]

I'm not in any particular state to dig out the details of what's going on yet, but there's reports that Ukraine is now conducting a counter-offensive around Izium.

Recently, Ukrainian counterattacks have driven the Russians back to the border around Kharkiv.

Directing their attention is interesting. It could be an attempt to cut off the troops that have crossed the Seversky Donets there, but it could also be an attempt to hit the largest Russian concentration of troops and bleed them white with attritional warfare.

[bjn]

A new instrument of war... the E-bike!

Looks pretty handy.

The use of small motorbikes and even bicycles in warfare goes back a very long way, both as despatch riders and ways to improve infantry mobility. Bicycles allowed troops to cover more ground for less effort, and then generally dismount, though attempts to mount weapons directly onto bicycles have happened, and of course there's armed sidecar combos. I read a genuine and serious discussion not long ago about how insurgents can overcome counter-insurgency operations by using swarms of motorcycle dragoons.

An e-bike is a logical extension of that, as it's smaller and handier than a motorcycle, faster and less effort than a bicycle, and nearly silent.

It also allows for various cycle of violence related jokes.

The Japanese used bicycles to great effect when advancing down the Malaysian peninsular against British imperial forces.

[EACLucifer]

The more that comes out about the failed river crossing at Bilohorivka, the more dramatic it appears to have been.

In footage from the ground, someone is describing about a hundred losses of Russian equipment. OSINT accounts have now identified approximately eighty, including a row of tanks driven into the river and abandoned, possibly to prevent their capture.

Judging by the amount of equipment, and by the degree to which Russian Batallion Tactical Groups are understrength, it looks like a brigade got mauled. Aside from preventing the Russian attempt to cross the Seversky Donets and encircle Lyschansk, it is an enormous loss of material and - inevitably - manpower, which Russia can ill afford at present.

[EACLucifer]

It looks like Israel has now allowed Estonia to transfer a state of the art Blue Spear missile complex to Ukraine. Blue Spear is a development of the Israeli Gabriel anti-shipping missile, with a range of almost 300km and the ability to hit sea and land targets, and is reportedly designed to be difficult to counter. Estonia acquired the system less than a year ago, and this would probably be the most advanced weapon transferred to Ukraine so far, more so even than Brimstone.

This will make things much, much more difficult for the Black Sea Fleet, as it puts even Sevastopol in range of Ukraine held coastline. Though it has the range to threaten the Kerch Straits bridge, it probably does not have a sufficient warhead to destroy it.

This was widely reported, but - much like the idea of Britain sending Harpoons - does not appear to be true, which doesn't surprise me, as Blue Spear's basically a prototype at this point. However, Estonian Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets has denied previous reports that Israel is stopping them sending weapons originally made in Israel. Perhaps the most likely is the Spike missile, but Estonia - which has gone above and beyond compared to most countries aiding Ukraine - also has more legit worries about Russian threats than most NATO countries.

[jimbob]

The more that comes out about the failed river crossing at Bilohorivka, the more dramatic it appears to have been.

In footage from the ground, someone is describing about a hundred losses of Russian equipment. OSINT accounts have now identified approximately eighty, including a row of tanks driven into the river and abandoned, possibly to prevent their capture.

Judging by the amount of equipment, and by the degree to which Russian Batallion Tactical Groups are understrength, it looks like a brigade got mauled. Aside from preventing the Russian attempt to cross the Seversky Donets and encircle Lyschansk, it is an enormous loss of material and - inevitably - manpower, which Russia can ill afford at present.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ent-may-14

Russian forces made significant tactical mistakes during the attempted large-scale crossing of the Siverskyi Donets River from Kreminna. The Russian command reportedly sent 550 servicemen of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in order to encircle Ukrainian forces near Rubizhne from the northwest.[3] Ukrainian artillery destroyed the Russian pontoon bridges and tightly-concentrated Russian troops and equipment around them on May 11, which reportedly resulted in 485 casualties and damages to over 80 pieces of equipment.[4] The 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade had previously attempted a river crossing (over the Desna River in Chernihiv Oblast on March 8) without suffering such setbacks.[5] The unit’s command and staff may have failed to recognize the dangers that Ukraine’s improving artillery capabilities posed two months later, or may simply have been incompetent or unable to control their troops.

Prominent pro-Russian Telegram channels (with approximately 300 thousand followers) largely criticized Russian General Staff for failing to learn from previous combat mistakes and expressed concern that censorship and self-censorship was depriving them of situational awareness.[6] Other pro-Russian Telegram channels noted the slow pace of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast, blaming it in part on ineffective aerial reconnaissance and the negative effects of bad morale within the Russian military.[7] Some Telegram channels reported receiving criticism for “misrepresenting” the performance of the Russian military.[8] The Russian Defense Ministry posted a video that it claimed showed that Russian forces in turn destroyed Ukrainian pontoon crossings on May 14, although we have no independent confirmation of these claims.[9]

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... RhMd3_aYmA

Looks like Russia is issuing voluntary call up papers to men of military age

[EACLucifer]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... RhMd3_aYmA

Looks like Russia is issuing voluntary call up papers to men of military age

They are suffering from significant losses - UK estimates are now something like a third of their invasion force, which would equate to sixty thousand or more out of service. Ukrainian estimates are >25000, and Ukrainian estimates appear to included killed missing and captured, but not wounded. The two seem quite compatible given the expected ratios of killed to wounded, and that some wounded early on might be back in service now.

Whether they'll be able to get enough people - or refurbished equipment - into service quickly enough to take control of a situation that is turning against them is another issue.

Some of the same military analysts (Including Maj. Gen. (rtd) Mick Ryan, who posts under @warinthefuture) who predicted the Russian culmination around Kyiv are now predicting the culmination of the entire invasion. That doesn't mean its over, by any stretch, but it does mean they will be unable to press home large scale attacks, while Ukraine will be in a position to counterattack more widely, especially as Ukraine will likely be moving to the defensive around newly liberated areas northeast of Kharkiv as they reach the border, and so free up some of the units used for that counterattack to operate in the east or south.

The other interesting development lately is the increasing confidence of the Ukrainian airforce. There's been more sightings lately, and they were reportedly involved in the victory at Bilohorivka, and also reportedly thwarted a Russian attempt to bridge the Inhulets between Mykolaiv and Kherson.

[EACLucifer]

More 4th Guards Tank Division "Kantemirovskaya" details, and implications for overall loss calculation on this rather good thread.

The short version;

4th GTD only formation that uses T80Us (in the 6 Tank Companies that form its 2 Tank Regiments, the remaining Tank Company in the Motor Rifle Regiment uses a different T80 variant).

Ukrainian military intelligence published losses for the 1st Tank Army on the 15th of March. Along with 758 killed, wounded, captured and missing, they reported equipment losses that include 62 T80Us and subvariants. At this point, the Oryx list included 46. Allowing for a week's lag in counting, that becomes 49.

In other words, the Oryx list undercounted the tank losses of the 4th GTDs Tank Regiments, counting ~80% of them. If this is consistent, it can be inferred that Russia's lost between eight and nine hundred tanks.

It's inevitable that the Oryx list undercounts, as they are careful to avoid duplicates, and only include things with photographic evidence. It isn't clear whether or not the rate at which things are undercounted varies from category to category.

[EACLucifer]

Russian sources now talking about Ukrainians on the eastern side of the Seversky Donets in the north, advancing on Vovchans'k. Even just a raid to damage communications in that area would seriously imperil Russian lines of supply in the direction of Izium.

[Woodchopper]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... RhMd3_aYmA

Looks like Russia is issuing voluntary call up papers to men of military age

Thread here suggests they are calling on veterans and putting pressure on them to sign contracts:
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... ICdF-klt1g

Another sign that Russia is running short of personnel

[bjn]

Russian sources now talking about Ukrainians on the eastern side of the Seversky Donets in the north, advancing on Vovchans'k. Even just a raid to damage communications in that area would seriously imperil Russian lines of supply in the direction of Izium.

A few tweeks on that.

No idea of the veracity.

[FlammableFlower]

Russian attempt at mimicking the Ukrainian drone bombers

tl;dr - it's cheap quadcopter dropping a grenade in a china mug and is about as accurate as you might imagine. The idea being that with the pin removed, but the lever kept down in the mug, it will activate when the mug breaks on impact.

Whereas, the Ukrainian drone octocopters can carry 4 kg mortar bombs that have been modified with 3D printed fins to stabilise them and make them very accurate (i.e. dropping one through a stolen vehicle's sunroof).

[sTeamTraen]

Russian attempt at mimicking the Ukrainian drone bombers

tl;dr - it's cheap quadcopter dropping a grenade in a china mug and is about as accurate as you might imagine. The idea being that with the pin removed, but the lever kept down in the mug, it will activate when the mug breaks on impact.

Whereas, the Ukrainian drone octocopters can carry 4 kg mortar bombs that have been modified with 3D printed fins to stabilise them and make them very accurate (i.e. dropping one through a stolen vehicle's sunroof).

The Ukrainians are apparently also using quadcopters with considerably smaller munitions.

[EACLucifer]

Russian attempt at mimicking the Ukrainian drone bombers

tl;dr - it's cheap quadcopter dropping a grenade in a china mug and is about as accurate as you might imagine. The idea being that with the pin removed, but the lever kept down in the mug, it will activate when the mug breaks on impact.

Whereas, the Ukrainian drone octocopters can carry 4 kg mortar bombs that have been modified with 3D printed fins to stabilise them and make them very accurate (i.e. dropping one through a stolen vehicle's sunroof).

Mortar bombs usually have fins attached already, as most mortars are smoothbore. The main use of 3d printed fins has been to turn obsolete shaped charge antitank grenades into a very dangerous weapon, as while they've not got the penetration to take on the frontal armour of a modern tank, they can easily pierce the thin top armour.

The most absurd approach I've seen evidence of the Russians using is dropping grenades from fixed wing drones. A multicopter can hover over the target - with a fixed wing drone, there's significant forward motion to account for, something which has long been understood to need well designed bombsights, yet a surveillance drone that's been bodged into a drone bomber won't have any.