Blyatskrieg

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:29 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:13 pm
Meanwhile, some conscripts are not impressed with their weapons

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/stat ... AOvS82EmTQ
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#Ukraine: Apparently this is the condition of some of the AKMs that mobilised Russian men have been receiving. Pretty surprising they're not AK-74.

Although these could be probably just fine within hours, not a great look! Also, note 74-style refurb stock.
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Er no, worse than I thought. Internals
With a bunch of work, it might be possible to get that running again, though if there's enough rust in the rifling, or worse, at the crown, to cause pitting, it won't shoot straight. There's also the fire control group, which contains lots of small and very important parts like the sear, auto-sear and disconnector that all sit next to each other, and the fire control group isn't generally something one would expect the troops to service.

Also this is an AKM. It uses the older 7.62 soviet cartridge, whereas the frontline troops use the AK-74 and Ak-12, which use the more modern and entirely incompatible 5.45 cartridge.

That could indicate they might not actually go into battle with these, they may be just for training. I don't think the troops trained by the British will be using the Yugoslavian M70s or Chinese Type 56s they were training with, they were just what was available with the same handling as the Ak-74, which is also the standard weapon used in Ukraine.

Still, this should tell you something about the condition of all that kit stored out in the open the Russians have in reserve. They wouldn't be using T-62s if the T-72s were all functional.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:00 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:29 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:13 pm
Meanwhile, some conscripts are not impressed with their weapons

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/stat ... AOvS82EmTQ
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#Ukraine: Apparently this is the condition of some of the AKMs that mobilised Russian men have been receiving. Pretty surprising they're not AK-74.

Although these could be probably just fine within hours, not a great look! Also, note 74-style refurb stock.
0:14 / 0:21
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Er no, worse than I thought. Internals
With a bunch of work, it might be possible to get that running again, though if there's enough rust in the rifling, or worse, at the crown, to cause pitting, it won't shoot straight. There's also the fire control group, which contains lots of small and very important parts like the sear, auto-sear and disconnector that all sit next to each other, and the fire control group isn't generally something one would expect the troops to service.

Also this is an AKM. It uses the older 7.62 soviet cartridge, whereas the frontline troops use the AK-74 and Ak-12, which use the more modern and entirely incompatible 5.45 cartridge.

That could indicate they might not actually go into battle with these, they may be just for training. I don't think the troops trained by the British will be using the Yugoslavian M70s or Chinese Type 56s they were training with, they were just what was available with the same handling as the Ak-74, which is also the standard weapon used in Ukraine.

Still, this should tell you something about the condition of all that kit stored out in the open the Russians have in reserve. They wouldn't be using T-62s if the T-72s were all functional.
Yes but it is a great way to ruin the morale of the new recruits. Similarly with the beds in the open. Proper beds, but not even a tent.

We know that the client militias with their bolt action rifles will be using different calibre ammunition, which also strikes me as inefficient
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:08 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:00 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:29 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:13 pm
Meanwhile, some conscripts are not impressed with their weapons

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/stat ... AOvS82EmTQ

With a bunch of work, it might be possible to get that running again, though if there's enough rust in the rifling, or worse, at the crown, to cause pitting, it won't shoot straight. There's also the fire control group, which contains lots of small and very important parts like the sear, auto-sear and disconnector that all sit next to each other, and the fire control group isn't generally something one would expect the troops to service.

Also this is an AKM. It uses the older 7.62 soviet cartridge, whereas the frontline troops use the AK-74 and Ak-12, which use the more modern and entirely incompatible 5.45 cartridge.

That could indicate they might not actually go into battle with these, they may be just for training. I don't think the troops trained by the British will be using the Yugoslavian M70s or Chinese Type 56s they were training with, they were just what was available with the same handling as the Ak-74, which is also the standard weapon used in Ukraine.

Still, this should tell you something about the condition of all that kit stored out in the open the Russians have in reserve. They wouldn't be using T-62s if the T-72s were all functional.
Yes but it is a great way to ruin the morale of the new recruits. Similarly with the beds in the open. Proper beds, but not even a tent.
Absolutely. Things like issuing a horrifically rusty rifle will permanently shape people's impression of the service, especially when they didn't want to join in the first place.r
We know that the client militias with their bolt action rifles will be using different calibre ammunition, which also strikes me as inefficient
True, though 7.62x54R - used in those Mosin-Nagant M91*s - is still used in frontline Russian service in various PK-variant GPMGs, and in designated marksman and sniper rifles.



*Yes, that's model 1891, for those wondering. Generally M91/30s, ie the design was updated in 1930.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:13 pm

Another sign of Russian tactical desperation is the increased risks they are taking with crewed aircraft. Yesterday, footage emerged of a Ka-52 damaged and forced to land while on fire and an Mi-8 also hit, and today we have footage of a valuable Su-30 with flames streaming from one engine and the pilot struggling to maintain control. There's also claims of an Su-25 today, and while I've not found any footage to verify it yet, the Su-30 footage also features exactly the kind of smoke plume you get from a downed plane, and they were reportedly downed in the same incident.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:34 pm

Another fast jet downed. It's a Sukhoi, claimed to be an Su-30. That makes it two Sukhoi variants today at a minimum. There's footage of one burning for ages - specifically it looks like the internals of one engine are knackered as its basically pissing burning fuel rather than compressing and burning it - and there's footage of one going down quickly after it's hit.

There's also footage of one burning on the ground, and of something striking the ground and going up in a fireball, and in the footage of the jet spending some time with a burning engine, there's a smoke plume of the sort created by an aircraft that's gone down.

That's in addition to a Ka-52 that might be an additional one to yesterday. The Russians are not acting like a confident armed forces that can afford not to take desperate risks.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:40 am

Here's one of the Su-30s, incidentally. Reportedly downed with a stinger - to think that the US initially held them back, if they'd been there on 24/02/2022 that assualt on Hostomel would have looked very different.

Pilot and co-pilot eject, by the way.

Not counting incidents like the first couple of Chornobaivka bombardments and the Saki strike where airframes were destroyed on the ground, yesterday might well have been the worst day for Russian aviation so far in the war, at least for fast jets - the first couple of days saw a number of helicopters downed.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:47 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:40 am
Here's one of the Su-30s, incidentally. Reportedly downed with a stinger - to think that the US initially held them back, if they'd been there on 24/02/2022 that assualt on Hostomel would have looked very different.

Pilot and co-pilot eject, by the way.

Not counting incidents like the first couple of Chornobaivka bombardments and the Saki strike where airframes were destroyed on the ground, yesterday might well have been the worst day for Russian aviation so far in the war, at least for fast jets - the first couple of days saw a number of helicopters downed.
I think 5 March may have have been worse: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 0YJHUPSy3Q

Depends upon how the time period is counted.

As far as I remember the US didn’t supply Stingers until early March 2022.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:17 pm

Zelensky has stated that the NASAMS air defence system has arrived in Ukraine.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:36 pm

It's interesting that Russian media are reporting that quisling former MP Oleksii Zhuravko was killed in a missile strike in Kherson.

That suggests Ukraine feels it has sufficient precision weapons to expend on such target.

Coupled with Russia's use of Iranian drones for an attack on Odesa - It does look like a military target, but they're not exactly the much touted hypersonic missiles, or even Kalibr missiles.

Which suggests Russia is struggling with precision weaponry
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:40 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:17 pm
Zelensky has stated that the NASAMS air defence system has arrived in Ukraine.
Effective system, and one that does require quite a lot of training, so not a terrible surprise it took a while. Apparently, it had to be newly made, too, which would have been another source of delay. Two systems were pledged, followed later by a pledge for either another six or another eight, can't remember which. One might expect the latter group to arrive later, or they may arrive as fast as they can be built.

They fire the same AMRAAM missile used by a lot of NATO jets, which means ammunition availability should be ok, and over time they can be upgraded from the older model AMRAAMs to newer ones to increase their capability.

Even all the systems won't protect the whole frontline, though, and there will be tension between the need to protect cities, and the need to shoot down Russian planes attacking the front line.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:45 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:47 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:40 am
Here's one of the Su-30s, incidentally. Reportedly downed with a stinger - to think that the US initially held them back, if they'd been there on 24/02/2022 that assualt on Hostomel would have looked very different.

Pilot and co-pilot eject, by the way.

Not counting incidents like the first couple of Chornobaivka bombardments and the Saki strike where airframes were destroyed on the ground, yesterday might well have been the worst day for Russian aviation so far in the war, at least for fast jets - the first couple of days saw a number of helicopters downed.
I think 5 March may have have been worse: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 0YJHUPSy3Q

Depends upon how the time period is counted.

As far as I remember the US didn’t supply Stingers until early March 2022.
Yes, you are right. Worst since that, though, I think. That first couple of weeks quickly established that Russian aviation couldn't safely operate over the front lines. One presumes then there must have been a reason for the risks they took yesterday, and there were reports from the Russian side of Ukrainian breakthroughs from the Oskil line north of Lyman. Ukraine's also reportedly been using MANPADS with infiltration teams, so that jets operating behind the front line aren't safe either. They have to fly low - within MANPADS range - because heavier systems like the Buk will hit them if they fly above the radar horizon.

Re: stingers - Ukraine was asking for them in late 2021. Had they been provided in reasonable quantity, the assault on Hostomel would have gone very differently.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:00 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SooynsCBOr0

"The Russian victory missed by everyone"
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In the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 the Russian Armed Forces were successful in two major operations that were missed by most people, namely the decapitation of the strategic communication system and the disruption of the air defense system. To learn more about this, I talked to the cyber security expert the grugq.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:19 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:00 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SooynsCBOr0

"The Russian victory missed by everyone"
Military History not Visualized
161K subscribers

In the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 the Russian Armed Forces were successful in two major operations that were missed by most people, namely the decapitation of the strategic communication system and the disruption of the air defense system. To learn more about this, I talked to the cyber security expert the grugq.
Also this video pointing out how knocking out the Ukrainian integrated air defence system didn't actually give Russian aviation that much freedom of the air.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yArJ-tH06d0
MANPADS (Man-portable Air Defense Systems) are amongst the most respectable and cost-effective air defense systems out there . Although simple in comparison to the more impressive long-range systems, the versatility and pop-up threat posed by MANPADS makes them a special threat to pilots.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:36 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:19 pm
Also this video pointing out how knocking out the Ukrainian integrated air defence system didn't actually give Russian aviation that much freedom of the air.
The later-era Soviet air defence systems are all designed to be mobile, and can generally operate independently quite effectively.
MANPADS (Man-portable Air Defense Systems) are amongst the most respectable and cost-effective air defense systems out there . Although simple in comparison to the more impressive long-range systems, the versatility and pop-up threat posed by MANPADS makes them a special threat to pilots.
This is true, but without more capable systems, most aircraft can just fly above their reach. Won't do much good for attack helicopters, but fixed wing planes can easily overfly the MANPADS engagement ceiling - if there's nothing bigger to force the planes down below the radar and back into MANPADS range.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:16 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:36 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:19 pm
Also this video pointing out how knocking out the Ukrainian integrated air defence system didn't actually give Russian aviation that much freedom of the air.
The later-era Soviet air defence systems are all designed to be mobile, and can generally operate independently quite effectively.
MANPADS (Man-portable Air Defense Systems) are amongst the most respectable and cost-effective air defense systems out there . Although simple in comparison to the more impressive long-range systems, the versatility and pop-up threat posed by MANPADS makes them a special threat to pilots.
This is true, but without more capable systems, most aircraft can just fly above their reach. Won't do much good for attack helicopters, but fixed wing planes can easily overfly the MANPADS engagement ceiling - if there's nothing bigger to force the planes down below the radar and back into MANPADS range.
Yes, the video covered that. It was an interesting counterpoint how constrained the Russian air force has been.

Many weapons have their main utility as a threat or with other weapons.

Just as in Napoleon's time, cavalry and artillery provided threats to infantry that the required opposite counters.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:23 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:45 pm
Re: stingers - Ukraine was asking for them in late 2021. Had they been provided in reasonable quantity, the assault on Hostomel would have gone very differently.
I'm not sure about that. Ukraine had a lot of its own short range air defence missiles in February 2022. Certainly Stingers are more capable then SA7s or SA14s. But would they have made a big difference when shooting at low flying helicopters? Ukraine also used its heavier longer range missiles.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:51 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:23 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:45 pm
Re: stingers - Ukraine was asking for them in late 2021. Had they been provided in reasonable quantity, the assault on Hostomel would have gone very differently.
I'm not sure about that. Ukraine had a lot of its own short range air defence missiles in February 2022. Certainly Stingers are more capable then SA7s or SA14s. But would they have made a big difference when shooting at low flying helicopters? Ukraine also used its heavier longer range missiles.
I was mostly thinking about increasing the quantity available so they could cover more places at once.

The MANPADS that would have made the most difference, had it been present, is Starstreak, as the pattern of the engagement, at least above the reservoir, was that a MANPADS would down a helicopter, at which point the survivors would start dispensing flares and preventing a followup shot. Starstreak uses a totally different guidance system that is unaffected by countermeasures. However, given how training intense it is, I'm not sure there was much chance pre-february-escalation of Starstreak being sent.

It remains the case, though, that military aid to Ukraine before 22-02-2022 was largely a missed opportunity. Javelins and N-LAWs were extremely good, but there was so much more that could have been done once it became clear what Russia's plans were.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:09 pm

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... nl4Dcf6CdA

Not only are these two troops complaining about being cannon fodder with no equipment other than rifles, ammunition and a bayonet, they are also complaining about being sent to the front line without food or water.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:11 am

jimbob wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:09 pm
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... nl4Dcf6CdA

Not only are these two troops complaining about being cannon fodder with no equipment other than rifles, ammunition and a bayonet, they are also complaining about being sent to the front line without food or water.
It's going to be pretty horrible when winter gets going.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin_B » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:57 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:11 am
jimbob wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:09 pm
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... nl4Dcf6CdA

Not only are these two troops complaining about being cannon fodder with no equipment other than rifles, ammunition and a bayonet, they are also complaining about being sent to the front line without food or water.
It's going to be pretty horrible when winter gets going.
Sounds like a number of low-ranking Russian officers may get shot and then the conscripted troops surrender to the Ukrainians, desperate for a meal.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:04 am

NASAMS news was premature. CBS apparently cocked up a translation. It's due in the next couple of months, not there yet.

Meanwhile, the Russians continue to use Iranian propellor-power-triangular-cruise-missiles* against Odesa. I'm honestly wondering at this point if they could be countered by old-fashioned air defences like 23mm autocannon. They fly slow and straight and level, so if not manually targetted ones, radar guided guns like Gepards or Shilkas ought to be able to knock them down.



*Stop calling Shahed-136s drones. They aren't drones in any meaningful sense of the word.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:07 pm

In the Kharkiv-Northern Donetsk-Western Luhansk direction the Russians are still clinging to Lyman. Here's Andrew Perpetua's map. Most other OSINT maps are quite similar.Image

If one were to zoom out a little, it would be immediately apparent why the Russians want to hold Lyman.

The Ukrainians want to liberate Svatove to gain control of transport routes, outflank Russian positions to the south around Severodonetsk, and as another step on the way to Starobilsk. Starobilsk's liberation would in turn cut the last Russian rail route from the north - which runs from Valyuki down through Starobilsk to the Siverskyi Donets near Luhansk. Additionally, Svatove and Starobilsk are both in north-south valleys flanked by escarpments, those escarpments, like most of those in eastern Ukraine, having the steep side to the east. These would make ideal positions for a Ukrainian defensive line to secure the liberated territory.

But the Ukrainians can't advance on Svatove safely yet. If they were to do so, it would leave Lyman on their flank, threatening the flank of such an advance. However, much as the Russians want to hold Lyman, the question remains as to whether or not they can hold Lyman. There's been various reports of troops being partially encircled, with Ukrainian fire control over their GLOCs.

The Ukrainians aren't so far from reaching the Zherebets river (highlighted in cyan on this map) to the north of Lyman. If they were able to also reach Zarichne, that would limit Russian lines of retreat to those over the Zherebets. The Zherebets may not be the most formidable obstacle, and several crossings are marked, however, retreating by these crossings would still funnel the Russians into corridors within range of the Ukrainian artillery. After the Russian treachery at Illovaisk, I can imagine the Ukrainians would quite like to shell some retreating invaders.

It's quite possible we may see another Balakliya-Kupyans'k-Izyum type rout here, should the encirclement succeed or appear about to succeed, where the Russians, rather than risking the above scenario of retreat under fire, steal civilian vehicles and abandon their equipment*. I AM NOT SAYING THIS WILL HAPPEN. I'm saying it could happen.


Meanwhile in the south, the eternal question of the war - What Airdefence Doing? - continues to plague the Russian. Here, a pair of Su-24 "Fencers" conduct a low level bombing run with parachute retarded bombs. Usual warnings about combat footage apply. The attack definitely struck a Russian tank, but it's likely there were more vehicles there or Ukraine wouldn't have sent a pair of Fencers. This is something MANPADS struggle with. Those Sukhois came through low, and very fast. The Igla does not lock on instantly, and has a short range. Finally, both planes released flares during the attack.

Nonetheless, from a Russian perspective, attacks like that oughtn't be possible. However, their air defence is probably more degraded west of the Dnipro than it is anywhere else on the front. They may have tried to reinforce air defences in this area, as there are claims that three Pantsirs were destroyed trying to cross the Dnipro on a barge, though I can't verify this claim.


*Russian losses round Izyum are still being documented, and Russian losses round Kupyans'k apparently haven't even been largely recorded yet. What's recorded so far, though, is the loss of hundreds of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles and significant quantities of artillery and ammunition, such that the Ukrainians captured rather more functional materiel than they lost in that offensive.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:14 pm

I’m seeing tweets in the last hour about Lyman being nearly encircled, with only a narrow corridor left to get out. Treat with caution because Twitter + fog of war

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:55 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:14 pm
I’m seeing tweets in the last hour about Lyman being nearly encircled, with only a narrow corridor left to get out.
Even some of the most cautious OSINT mappers have the Ukrainians almost in contact with the Zherebets north of Lyman. That gives the Russians a fairly narrow lane of retreat across the Zherebets. If the Ukrainians really have reached Kolodyazi, then they are only about three kilometres form the Zherebets reservoir, which they might reach at a small village named, yet again, Bilohorivka. This Bilohorivka isn't one that's been discussed much yet, unlike the two south of the Donets in Luhansk oblast.

If there is a Ukrainian presence in Kolodyazi, then the crossings at Myrne are probably non-viable for the Russians. I'm not 100% what the Zherebets is doing here, it looks like it has multiple pools rather than a single reservoir. Either way there's crossings of the Zherebets between Zarichne and it's confluence with the Siverskyi Donets near Bilohorivka. On the other hand, the Ukrainians are also trying to advance from the south from bridgeheads over the Siverskyi Donets.

So IF the Ukrainians have liberated Kolodyazi, there's a corridor scarcely ten kilometres wide between the start of the available crossings and known Ukrainian positions near Yampil. That means any military vehicle trying to pull out from Lyman would be within range of artillery, heavy mortars and missiles like Javelins and Stugna-Ps.
Treat with caution because Twitter + fog of war
Absolutely, and apply this warning to all of this post and my previous post.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:34 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:07 pm
l
Meanwhile in the south, the eternal question of the war - What Airdefence Doing? - continues to plague the Russian. Here, a pair of Su-24 "Fencers" conduct a low level bombing run with parachute retarded bombs. Usual warnings about combat footage apply. The attack definitely struck a Russian tank, but it's likely there were more vehicles there or Ukraine wouldn't have sent a pair of Fencers. This is something MANPADS struggle with. Those Sukhois came through low, and very fast. The Igla does not lock on instantly, and has a short range. Finally, both planes released flares during the attack.

Nonetheless, from a Russian perspective, attacks like that oughtn't be possible. However, their air defence is probably more degraded west of the Dnipro than it is anywhere else on the front. They may have tried to reinforce air defences in this area, as there are claims that three Pantsirs were destroyed trying to cross the Dnipro on a barge, though I can't verify this claim.


Also the Russians presumably hadn't been attacking the far easier target of the drone that filmed this attack from a far higher altitude.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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