Blyatskrieg

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dyqik
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:51 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:33 pm
*Ukraine needs more place names. Perhaps NATO could send some?
We could send them Bedford, MA; New Bedford, MA; Bedford, Bedfordshire; Bedford, IN; Bedford, NS; Bedford, QC; the other Bedford, QC; Bedford Basin, NS; Bedford, IA; Bedford, Greater Manchester; Bedford, KY; Bedford, NY; Bedford, NH; Bedford Park, NY; Bedford, OH; Bedford, PA, Bedford, TN; Bedford, TX; Bedford, VA; Bedford, WY; Bedford Township, AK; Bedford Township, IN; Bedford Township, IA; Bedford Township, MI; the other Bedford Township, MI; Bedford Township, MS; Bedford Township, OH; Bedford Township (defunct), OH; yet another Bedford Township, OH; Bedford Township, PA; New Bedford, OH; New Bedford, IL; New Bedford, NJ; New Bedford, PA; Bedford Falls (It's A Wonderful Life).

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:58 pm

Iranian drone downed by either malfunction or electronic warfare.


This might be the same one that was found floating near Odesa, in which case it was probably directing Shahed-136 missiles*.

It takes more than just an airframe to make a good drone. Security of communications is utterly vital.


*Stop calling something with no capacity to land, that attempts to hit its target to attack it with an onboard warhead and that has no sensors a drone. Stop it.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:01 pm

Driving a lot faster than I would have: https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... pMP2CRcV6Q

The Ukrainian advance toward Kherson shouldn’t have been so fast because the Russians should have mined the roads.

It looks like their attempt was more quantity than quality.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:06 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:01 pm
Driving a lot faster than I would have: https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... pMP2CRcV6Q

The Ukrainian advance toward Kherson shouldn’t have been so fast because the Russians should have mined the roads.

It looks like their attempt was more quantity than quality.
:shock:

It's increasingly looking like Russian defences in the north of the oblast were thin and brittle, so once ruptured, there was open ground beyond.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:30 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:01 pm
Driving a lot faster than I would have: https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... pMP2CRcV6Q

The Ukrainian advance toward Kherson shouldn’t have been so fast because the Russians should have mined the roads.

It looks like their attempt was more quantity than quality.
Sappers almost certainly went through first, shunting mines to the side the road.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:32 pm

bjn wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:30 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:01 pm
Driving a lot faster than I would have: https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... pMP2CRcV6Q

The Ukrainian advance toward Kherson shouldn’t have been so fast because the Russians should have mined the roads.

It looks like their attempt was more quantity than quality.
Sappers almost certainly went through first, shunting mines to the side the road.
Certainly. But it looks like none of them were buried or concealed, or surrounded with anti-personnel mines. So that task would have been completed quickly.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:36 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:32 pm
bjn wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:30 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:01 pm
Driving a lot faster than I would have: https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... pMP2CRcV6Q

The Ukrainian advance toward Kherson shouldn’t have been so fast because the Russians should have mined the roads.

It looks like their attempt was more quantity than quality.
Sappers almost certainly went through first, shunting mines to the side the road.
Certainly. But it looks like none of them were buried or concealed, or surrounded with anti-personnel mines. So that task would have been completed quickly.
With TM-62s it can be as simple as just kicking them aside, as we've seen before. They are designed to react only to the weight of vehicles. You could most likely use them for a game of curling without serious danger, though I wouldn't recommend it.

The problem is when some devious bugger booby traps them.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:15 pm

Image

Schevchenkivka. West of the T0403 road. Russian sources were talking about Ukrainka and Bilyaivka being liberated last night, which are yet further west. The advance doesn't look too narrow, which is good.



ETA: Credit

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:19 pm

Russian source now saying Dudchany not just reached but liberated.

"The Russian army left Dudchany on the Southern Front. There are no reinforcements. The situation is critical."

The same source then suggests that Russian positions in northern Kherson oblast are untenable and Russian units are forced to retreat.

Please remember that Russian sources sometimes overstate Ukrainian advances, as well as the other issues with them.

However, if the Russians can't throw up a new defensive line, and throw it up fast, the Ukrainians may have the sort of freedom to manoeuvre we saw back at the start of last month in Kharkiv oblast. Moving in new troops across the Dnipro is extremely dangerous, and if you remember I mentioned the option of pinning Russian forces at Chornobaivka. If the Russians pull those troops to reinforce positions east of the Inhulets, it opens up a Ukrainian advance directly on Kherson. And the hammering the bridge at Dar'ivka took means moving troops from one side of the Inhulets to the other won't be quick anyway.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:03 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:15 pm
Russian sources were talking about Ukrainka and Bilyaivka.
Any guesses to how many troops Russia would have placed in a village like Ukrainka or Bilyaivka?

From the aerial images all the villages in this endless Steppe are weird places. Presumably a Soviet centre of the area's collective farm - single storey houses, statue of Lenin, memorial to WW2 and nothing else. Every now again one of the villages has a school and football pitch, the next one along has a village hall, the next one has a shop.

Wiki says Ukrainka had 313 residents, Bilyaivka had 684.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:16 pm

People are saying Russia has blown the bridge at Dudchany.

But it's not a bridge. It's a causeway. Looks like one section has pipe under the road or maybe an actual bridge. But looks trivially easy to repair any damage?

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.1841628 ... 312!8i6656
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:30 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:16 pm
People are saying Russia has blown the bridge at Dudchany.

But it's not a bridge. It's a causeway. Looks like one section has pipe under the road or maybe an actual bridge. But looks trivially easy to repair any damage?

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.1841628 ... 312!8i6656
It's only a tiny stream there. It looks big on the map because it's valley was flooded by the dam at Nova Kakhovka, but the stream itself is very small.

I can't see anywhere it would be easy to make a large hole in that causeway. Anything less than about eighteen metres, and an Armoured-Vehicle Launched Bridge could cross it. I'd be surprised if Ukraine doesn't have MT-55s or MTU-72s already in inventory, and Germany has sent Bibers. These are basically tank hulls with bridges carried on top that can be unfolded and launched into the gap, allowing a crossing in just a few minutes strong enough to support main battle tanks. The MT-55 and MTU-72 are based on the T-55 and T-72 respectively, while the Biber is based on the Leopard 1.

There's also various bridging systems like the MGB, which are conceptually similar to the Bailey Bridge of WWII fame. Basically giant meccano bridge kits that don't take machinery or skilled labour to assemble.

If it's not somewhere water's flowing, then bulldozers can be used to fill the gap. If it is, then it's possible to lay pieces of pipe for the water to flow through, then cover them in rocks and gravel with bulldozers, as was done to restore the crossing at Irpin after the Russian collapse in the north.

Still, I'd want the first vehicle over to be a mine flail. Thankfully, the Ukrainians have a good one, based on a T-64 hull.



ETA: It's also not a particularly long drive to go round.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:37 am

Russian military bloggers complain that Ukraine used widespread deception in Kherson. For example painting Russian tactical marks of vehicles.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... nK4gOw47TA

Speculation that they used NATO IFF: https://twitter.com/nickdm/status/15771 ... nK4gOw47TA

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin_B » Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:49 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:37 am
Russian military bloggers complain that Ukraine used widespread deception in Kherson. For example painting Russian tactical marks of vehicles.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... nK4gOw47TA

Speculation that they used NATO IFF: https://twitter.com/nickdm/status/15771 ... nK4gOw47TA
I'm guessing that they've never read Sun Tzu, then.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bob sterman » Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:07 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:37 am
Russian military bloggers complain that Ukraine used widespread deception in Kherson. For example painting Russian tactical marks of vehicles.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... nK4gOw47TA

Speculation that they used NATO IFF: https://twitter.com/nickdm/status/15771 ... nK4gOw47TA
Bit of a stretch there! Fleeing Russians in disarray complain they couldn't tell which tanks were friend or foe - therefore Ukraine must have highly sophisticated battle control system. Otherwise how could they bamboozle these elite Russian units?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:47 am

bob sterman wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:07 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:37 am
Russian military bloggers complain that Ukraine used widespread deception in Kherson. For example painting Russian tactical marks of vehicles.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... nK4gOw47TA

Speculation that they used NATO IFF: https://twitter.com/nickdm/status/15771 ... nK4gOw47TA
Bit of a stretch there! Fleeing Russians in disarray complain they couldn't tell which tanks were friend or foe - therefore Ukraine must have highly sophisticated battle control system. Otherwise how could they bamboozle these elite Russian units?
Yes, its more notable about what Russians think is happening rather than an assessment of Ukrainian capabilities.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:10 am

Apparently the Russian forces have abandoned Dudchany and have set up a new defensive line at the ironically named Mylove.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:42 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:10 am
Apparently the Russian forces have abandoned Dudchany and have set up a new defensive line at the ironically named Mylove.
Next flooded valley along the reservoir's shore. Any position north of Novokairy - the flooded valley south of Mylove - will be vulnerable so long as the Ukrainians hold their bridgehead south of Davydiv Brid.

The garrison at Davydiv Brid, which the Russians have put a lot of effort into holding, is in very real danger now. Not only are Ukrainian forces knocking on the door from the bridgehead, but Ukrainian positions around Dudchany are threatening the supply lines that run to Davydiv Brid through Tryfonivka. It's also unlikely the Russians have much air defence capability in this area now, so convoys to Davydiv Brid will face a gauntlet of drones and drone-correct artillery.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin_B » Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:36 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:37 am
Russian military bloggers complain that Ukraine used widespread deception in Kherson. For example painting Russian tactical marks of vehicles.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... nK4gOw47TA

Speculation that they used NATO IFF: https://twitter.com/nickdm/status/15771 ... nK4gOw47TA
Or possibly re-using the vehicles abandoned by fleeing Russians?
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:00 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:42 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:10 am
Apparently the Russian forces have abandoned Dudchany and have set up a new defensive line at the ironically named Mylove.
Next flooded valley along the reservoir's shore. Any position north of Novokairy - the flooded valley south of Mylove - will be vulnerable so long as the Ukrainians hold their bridgehead south of Davydiv Brid.

The garrison at Davydiv Brid, which the Russians have put a lot of effort into holding, is in very real danger now. Not only are Ukrainian forces knocking on the door from the bridgehead, but Ukrainian positions around Dudchany are threatening the supply lines that run to Davydiv Brid through Tryfonivka. It's also unlikely the Russians have much air defence capability in this area now, so convoys to Davydiv Brid will face a gauntlet of drones and drone-correct artillery.
Apparently Russia has ordered a general retreat from the northern section of the salient. We’ll have to see how much actually is able to get out.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by headshot » Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:16 am

Without wishing to channel Herainestold here...is anyone concerned about what sort of ordnance might be thrown at the areas that the Russians are retreating from?

I just wonder if it's useless defence, or part of a larger plan to withdraw and chuck in a nuke, or chemical attack.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:27 am

headshot wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:16 am
Without wishing to channel Herainestold here...is anyone concerned about what sort of ordnance might be thrown at the areas that the Russians are retreating from?

I just wonder if it's useless defence, or part of a larger plan to withdraw and chuck in a nuke, or chemical attack.
Unlikely for a few reasons.

Firstly, withdrawal is the only militarily sane thing to do. They'll have seen the footage from Lyman, where they left it too late. Spoiler, because I'm describing something appalling.

Spoiler:


They won't want to have repeated that. In addition, they need those troops to hold areas more valuable to them than the vast open fields of the Pontic Steppe.

Secondly, we can pretty much discount chemical weapons. In the flat, open country chemical agents would disperse too much to achieve lethal concentrations.

As for nukes, even if we were to discount the political consequences - which we'll come to in a moment - the idea of using a tactical nuke on the battlefield means to hit concentrations of troops, and this an area where much of the fighting is quite dispersed.

Then we get to the political fallout. NATO could ruin Russia, and Russia knows. NATO has the ability to hammer their positions all over Ukraine with vast quantities of cruise missiles, some of which are stealthy. NATO SEAD/DEAD could tear apart what is left of Russia's air defences, or simply ignore it. F-35s, F-22s and B-2s represent a problem for which Russia currently has no solution. And NATO combat air patrols could ground what's left of the Russian airforce in the area, and that's all assuming the response is confined to Ukraine.

To use weapons of mass destruction would risk that sort of a response.

It's reasonable to worry about this sort of thing. I can't be certain Russia won't do something stupid or unexpected, but their behaviour does not point to it at the moment.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Matatouille » Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:33 am

headshot wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:16 am
Without wishing to channel Herainestold here...is anyone concerned about what sort of ordnance might be thrown at the areas that the Russians are retreating from?

I just wonder if it's useless defence, or part of a larger plan to withdraw and chuck in a nuke, or chemical attack.
The prevailing wind direction is against the Russians, towards the East. Not the best place for them to lob things like that when their troops and territory is not far downwind much of the time. Additionally, if winter kit is in short supply, one wonders at the state of their chemical warfare protective gear.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:37 am


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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:52 pm

I'm guessing there's no fortified Russian positions in any of that vast farm land. There will be camps and mobile patrols, but nothing of value to actually defend except for the acreage.

Ukraine has won movement and is doing a bit of Blitzkreiging, If Russia can't orchestrate air support or artillery then their mobile units will quickly run for it. Their moral is terrible. They won't die to hold what in their eyes is an obscure village.

I suspect Ukraine has swept all the way to the line from Mylove to Davydiv Brid. The real victory is that Russia won't have retreated in good order from Davydiv Brid and will now be trying it in a panic.
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