Blyatskrieg

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EACLucifer
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:09 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:52 pm
I'm guessing there's no fortified Russian positions in any of that vast farm land. There will be camps and mobile patrols, but nothing of value to actually defend except for the acreage.

Ukraine has won movement and is doing a bit of Blitzkreiging, If Russia can't orchestrate air support or artillery then their mobile units will quickly run for it. Their moral is terrible. They won't die to hold what in their eyes is an obscure village.

I suspect Ukraine has swept all the way to the line from Mylove to Davydiv Brid. The real victory is that Russia won't have retreated in good order from Davydiv Brid and will now be trying it in a panic.
Reportedly they would garrison villages, and not patrol between them. Their positions were strung out and not mutually supporting. Much like with Operation Compass back in WWII, the more mobile force can overcome these garrisons. Unlike the Italians then, the Russians have motor transport, and thus are able to flee more easily.

The Ukrainians once again appear to have created and used a mobile, hard hitting tank force. An armoured spearhead of the sort many were saying was obsolete. One key factor will have been keeping Russian aviation away, especially attack helicopters, which are designed to counter armoured spearheads.

The question is where can they stabilise the line? Because if the Ukrainians get much closer to Nova Kakhovka, things start to get very interesting, and getting Russian helicopter bases and logistics nodes on the southern/eastern side of the Dnipro in GMLRS range is looking pretty likely too.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:17 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:52 pm
Their moral is terrible.
Agreed, their morale is pretty bad too!

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:18 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:09 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:52 pm
I'm guessing there's no fortified Russian positions in any of that vast farm land. There will be camps and mobile patrols, but nothing of value to actually defend except for the acreage.

Ukraine has won movement and is doing a bit of Blitzkreiging, If Russia can't orchestrate air support or artillery then their mobile units will quickly run for it. Their moral is terrible. They won't die to hold what in their eyes is an obscure village.

I suspect Ukraine has swept all the way to the line from Mylove to Davydiv Brid. The real victory is that Russia won't have retreated in good order from Davydiv Brid and will now be trying it in a panic.
Reportedly they would garrison villages, and not patrol between them. Their positions were strung out and not mutually supporting. Much like with Operation Compass back in WWII, the more mobile force can overcome these garrisons. Unlike the Italians then, the Russians have motor transport, and thus are able to flee more easily.

The Ukrainians once again appear to have created and used a mobile, hard hitting tank force. An armoured spearhead of the sort many were saying was obsolete. One key factor will have been keeping Russian aviation away, especially attack helicopters, which are designed to counter armoured spearheads.

The question is where can they stabilise the line? Because if the Ukrainians get much closer to Nova Kakhovka, things start to get very interesting, and getting Russian helicopter bases and logistics nodes on the southern/eastern side of the Dnipro in GMLRS range is looking pretty likely too.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:21 pm

Grumble wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:18 pm
When the problem actually is a nail then the solution actually is a hammer, no matter how old those two things might be.
Exactly. When the situation calls for rapid manoeuvre across country, firepower and resilience, what is needed is a tank.

I'd add the reconnaissance groups the Russians are so scared of aren't really any more than what you get if you incorporate light vehicles into the Stoßtruppen concept.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:01 pm

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... w1Q9B_EWfA
Christo Grozev
@christogrozev
Normal
4%
Palpably mutinous moods among the Russian troops post Lyman. Auto translation via
@vidtranslator
6:59 PM · Oct 4, 2022
·Twitter for Android
and a screenshot I took from that video.
FeP9g2YXEBQFkbs.png
FeP9g2YXEBQFkbs.png (298.29 KiB) Viewed 948 times
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:24 am

Makes you wonder if they're given just four rounds because the Russians are low on Ammo or because the officers don't want their men too well armed in case they turn on their commanders.

Could be both of course. Either way its a sure fire way to lose.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:31 am

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:24 am
Makes you wonder if they're given just four rounds because the Russians are low on Ammo or because the officers don't want their men too well armed in case they turn on their commanders.

Could be both of course. Either way its a sure fire way to lose.
How long does a machine take to fire four rounds? I’m guessing about 0.5 seconds
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:41 am

Presumably it was a rifle, not a machine gun, and they didn't have the training to know the difference.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:48 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:41 am
Presumably it was a rifle, not a machine gun, and they didn't have the training to know the difference.
More likely an issue with translation. They probably gave him a Kalashnikov, and an assault rifle is called an ‘automat’ in Russian which translates as ‘machine’.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:50 am

My guess is the next task is to divide the Russian occupying force into two. Hit towards Tyahynka, say.

The northern group would presumably withdraw back across the river. But the southern group would be entrenched in Kherson. Have to besiege them for months? Priority would probably be given to sweeping south towards Melitopol?
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:05 am

Grumble wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:31 am
TopBadger wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:24 am
Makes you wonder if they're given just four rounds because the Russians are low on Ammo or because the officers don't want their men too well armed in case they turn on their commanders.

Could be both of course. Either way its a sure fire way to lose.
How long does a machine take to fire four rounds? I’m guessing about 0.5 seconds
Less... if they were wise they'd have the rifle set to repetition rather than automatic... single shots.

If they were wiser still they'd remove the mag, put the rifle down and start walking slowly to the front line with their hands raised.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:56 am

Grumble wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:31 am
TopBadger wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:24 am
Makes you wonder if they're given just four rounds because the Russians are low on Ammo or because the officers don't want their men too well armed in case they turn on their commanders.

Could be both of course. Either way its a sure fire way to lose.
How long does a machine take to fire four rounds? I’m guessing about 0.5 seconds
Not far off. Yes, I am nerdy enough to actually check.

For an RPK it's .4 seconds. For a PKM it's .37 seconds. For a heavy NSV, it's only .32 seconds.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:58 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:48 am
lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:41 am
Presumably it was a rifle, not a machine gun, and they didn't have the training to know the difference.
More likely an issue with translation. They probably gave him a Kalashnikov, and an assault rifle is called an ‘automat’ in Russian which translates as ‘machine’.
Quite likely. One burst from an AK-74 could use up those rounds in a little under .4 seconds if fired on auto. Assuming it's not used that way, we're still talking a fraction of the ammunition that would be carried in the 18th century, let alone the modern era.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:00 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:58 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:48 am
lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:41 am
Presumably it was a rifle, not a machine gun, and they didn't have the training to know the difference.
More likely an issue with translation. They probably gave him a Kalashnikov, and an assault rifle is called an ‘automat’ in Russian which translates as ‘machine’.
Quite likely. One burst from an AK-74 could use up those rounds in a little under .4 seconds if fired on auto. Assuming it's not used that way, we're still talking a fraction of the ammunition that would be carried in the 18th century, let alone the modern era.
Even 4 magazines would be pretty poor
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:05 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:50 am
My guess is the next task is to divide the Russian occupying force into two. Hit towards Tyahynka, say.

The northern group would presumably withdraw back across the river. But the southern group would be entrenched in Kherson. Have to besiege them for months? Priority would probably be given to sweeping south towards Melitopol?
The current offensive threatens Kherson from the east. Currently, the area north/west of the Dnipro is divided in two by the Inhulets, which is reasonably large at its southern end. The bridge at Darivka is already largely impassible for vehicles. Ukrainian forces may seek to clear out all the Russian forces east of the Inhulets. That directly stop up the dam/bridge at Nova Kakhovka, which has been rendered sort of usable with the use of temporary girder bridging over the lock, and the ferry point at L'vove. From east of the Inhulets, the Antonivsky road and rail bridges, which are both still passable at least to people on foot, could be targetted with every sort of artillery larger than a medium mortar, which would enable their complete destruction, but also make life exceptionally nasty for those trying to cross; there's no cover or concealement on a bridge.

That would leave the garrison in Kherson with just ferries in the city itself, and vehicles queueing for ferries would be very vulnerable to artillery east of the Inhulets, or northwest of the current lines. That would mean that as time went on the garrison in Kherson would run out of basically everyhing. One would hope for a negotiated surrender at that point, but Putin is imitating Hitler in a number of ways now, and blocking the surrender of troops when it would save lives and otherwise they are done for is one of those ways.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:25 am


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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:52 am

jimbob wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:00 am
Even 4 magazines would be pretty poor
Well, that depends on role. IIRC you'd expect to have 4 full mags (120 rounds) in your webbing if in a combat service support role (Logistics, Communications, etc) where you might have to defend yourself from enemy troops operating behind the lines but generally don't expect to be "going kinetic".

Infantry would usually have 8 mags (240 rounds) in their webbing (perhaps a few more in a day sack) and they'd have bandoliers on them (and Bayonets for when it gets up close and personal), plus their mates in reserve would have that plus more in their Bergan's.

At least it's clear why Russian troops learn hand to hand combat know though... they expect to Judo throw their way to victory.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Imrael » Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:44 am

This graph of recent Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses on the Oryx list is quite remarkable
Traditionally retreating armies do lose more - mostly to do with not being able to recover and repair stuff.

Looking at the South, I do wonder about the UKR logistics tail. Wiki says max endurance of a T-72 is 700 km with external fuel drum, which sounds like loads but I suspect they get through it much quicker maneuvering. Do armoured units still "lager up" at night? (In the sense of going into camp not drinking unpleasant beer).

I suppose I'm imagining a "tail" of ammo trucks and fuel bowsers, withing striking range of medium artillery across the river and fairly easily observed by aircraft/drones. This doesnt seem to be happening but I do wonder why not.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Oct 05, 2022 12:04 pm

Imrael wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:44 am
This graph of recent Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses on the Oryx list is quite remarkable
Traditionally retreating armies do lose more - mostly to do with not being able to recover and repair stuff.
The retreat also exposes earlier losses to documentation.
Looking at the South, I do wonder about the UKR logistics tail. Wiki says max endurance of a T-72 is 700 km with external fuel drum, which sounds like loads but I suspect they get through it much quicker maneuvering. Do armoured units still "lager up" at night? (In the sense of going into camp not drinking unpleasant beer).
These days with reconnaissance assets what they are I suspect it's safer to disperse when not actively fighting.

The Ukrainian tank spearhead hasn't been resting at night. That's when it's been striking Russian positions. Since 2014 Ukraine's invested heavily in night fighting capabilities including for their armoured fighting vehicles. Fighting at night nullifies the threat of a lot of anti-tank weapons as the Russians don't have enough night vision equipment to go around.
I suppose I'm imagining a "tail" of ammo trucks and fuel bowsers, withing striking range of medium artillery across the river and fairly easily observed by aircraft/drones. This doesnt seem to be happening but I do wonder why not.
The distances involved aren't at the level it would tax the fuel systems of the tanks, except perhaps the turbine powered T-80 variants, not sure what they are doing regarding fuelling, provision of ammo and rations and so on, but the we're talking movements in the tens of kilometres, not hundreds.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:25 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:52 am
jimbob wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:00 am
Even 4 magazines would be pretty poor
Well, that depends on role. IIRC you'd expect to have 4 full mags (120 rounds) in your webbing if in a combat service support role (Logistics, Communications, etc) where you might have to defend yourself from enemy troops operating behind the lines but generally don't expect to be "going kinetic".

Infantry would usually have 8 mags (240 rounds) in their webbing (perhaps a few more in a day sack) and they'd have bandoliers on them (and Bayonets for when it gets up close and personal), plus their mates in reserve would have that plus more in their Bergan's.

At least it's clear why Russian troops learn hand to hand combat know though... they expect to Judo throw their way to victory.
The thing is, giving the Russian conscripts four rounds is probably a deliberate choice. There’s a long history of mutiny and rioting by conscripts in Russia. Probably foolhardy to give them all guns and hundreds of rounds.

They can be issued with ammunition on the front line when it’s time to fight.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:33 pm

A picture of a bucket of pulled gold teeth has been going round the interwebs.

It appears that they were looted from a dentist who had kept them over the years. https://twitter.com/ronzheimer/status/1 ... uZNVjCiKuw

The linked article also contains accounts from Ukrainians who were tortured. So it doesn’t appear to be a whitewashing attempt.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:33 pm

400 Russian conscripts abandoned in a forest for six days with no supplies. https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/statu ... dvFfO_nyww

500 Russian conscripts abandoned by a railway without food and other supplies. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... dvFfO_nyww

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:58 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:33 pm
400 Russian conscripts abandoned in a forest for six days with no supplies. https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/statu ... dvFfO_nyww

500 Russian conscripts abandoned by a railway without food and other supplies. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... dvFfO_nyww
Suggestion they may be staged: https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1577 ... dvFfO_nyww

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:05 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:58 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:33 pm
400 Russian conscripts abandoned in a forest for six days with no supplies. https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/statu ... dvFfO_nyww

500 Russian conscripts abandoned by a railway without food and other supplies. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... dvFfO_nyww
Suggestion they may be staged: https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1577 ... dvFfO_nyww
So what would Wagner group get out of undermining the mobilisation?
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:13 pm

Grumble wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:05 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:58 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:33 pm
400 Russian conscripts abandoned in a forest for six days with no supplies. https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/statu ... dvFfO_nyww

500 Russian conscripts abandoned by a railway without food and other supplies. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... dvFfO_nyww
Suggestion they may be staged: https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1577 ... dvFfO_nyww
So what would Wagner group get out of undermining the mobilisation?
Head of Wagner wants to replace Shoigu, Minister of Defence.

The courtiers are fighting for influence.

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