Blyatskrieg

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dyqik
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:28 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:13 pm
Grumble wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:05 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:58 pm


Suggestion they may be staged: https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1577 ... dvFfO_nyww
So what would Wagner group get out of undermining the mobilisation?
Head of Wagner wants to replace Shoigu, Minister of Defence.

The courtiers are fighting for influence.
Or for power to allow them to depose Putin

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:53 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:13 pm
Grumble wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:05 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:58 pm


Suggestion they may be staged: https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1577 ... dvFfO_nyww
So what would Wagner group get out of undermining the mobilisation?
Head of Wagner wants to replace Shoigu, Minister of Defence.

The courtiers are fighting for influence.
Looks like an internal struggle going on now. The loser may be announced by the traditional method of falling out of a window.
earlier today in Moscow police detained an employee of Prigozhin's media group Patriot Aleksey Slobodenyuk who runs a network of telegram channels known for attacking Shoigu, Volodin and others. So a hot war among Russia's elite is very much a reality at this point
https://twitter.com/tadeuszgiczan/statu ... j4F3uv9UvQ

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Oct 06, 2022 4:57 am

Video from last week but the side effects of HIMARS. Russians trying to disperse their ammo everywhere they could. Even tho then moving that ammo to units in need is almost impossible
https://twitter.com/lostweapons/status/ ... j4F3uv9UvQ

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:47 am

Russians appear to be digging in between Beryslav and Odradokam'yanka, near the Kakhovsky bridges/dam. This doesn't mean they've retreated there, not yet, but it does mean they currently intend to try and hold those positions.

The problem for them is twofold.

Firstly, this would not stop Ukrainian forces occupying the rest of the area north/west of the Dnipro and east of the Inhulets, from which they could bring substantial artillery against what's left of the Antonivsky bridges, as well as any attempts to cross with ferries. It would also of course stop supplies being brought across the Kakhovsky bridges and sent onwards to Kherson city and its defences.

Secondly, the supply lines for this position would be extremely tenuous - the dam at Nova Kakhovka, where the bridges over the lock are already done for and they are using temporary girder bridges and trying to fill the lock with rubble, and feries across the Dnipro below the dam, or potentially above it I suppose but for the moment they are operating below. Those ferries have already been fired upon, but it's one thing being within GMLRS range, it's another being in mortar range. Supply vehicles and reinforcements will come under heavy fire from units close enough to easily react to the movement of convoys.

In short, digging in between Odradrokam'yanka and Beryslav will not give the Russians much chance of holding on long there or in Kherson city.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:58 am

TopBadger wrote:
Tue Jul 12, 2022 1:57 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jul 12, 2022 1:42 pm

M30A1/M30A2 rockets would be good too. Though they don't have any greater range than the M31s already in use, they do have a very effective warhead. They are, essentially, a re-introduction of shrapnel to frontline service after about eighty years of blast-frag and cluster munitions dominating. As the rocket comes in at several times the speed of sound, an explosive bursts it open to release more than a hundred and eighty thousand tungsten pellets, which gain their effectiveness from the carrier rocket's velocity. These allow it to cover a wide area without the UXO concerns of cluster warheads. Once Ukraine has run out of ammo depots to destroy, a few pods of M30A1 would make it very difficult for Russian troops to concentrate for the attack.
So they're essentially a massive supersonic air delivered claymore mine... scary sh.t. How big an area to they usually cover?
A Forbes article reported "Four Football Fields", and also noted that a salvo of six could cover half a square mile.

So an M270 with these wouldn't just be a grid square removal system, it would be able to remove more like two and half of them, at least when it came to infantry in the open and soft skinned vehicles.

And, unlike in this discussion we had back in July, they have now been provided to the Ukrainian armed forces.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by FlammableFlower » Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:48 am

WSJ wrote:One Ukrainian battalion, the Carpathian Sich, seized 10 modern T-80 tanks and five 2S5 Giatsint 152-mm self-propelled howitzers after it entered the town of Izyum last month, said its deputy chief of staff, Ruslan Andriyko.

“We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them,” he said. “We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.”

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:19 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:47 am
Russians appear to be digging in between Beryslav and Odradokam'yanka, near the Kakhovsky bridges/dam. This doesn't mean they've retreated there, not yet, but it does mean they currently intend to try and hold those positions.

The problem for them is twofold.

Firstly, this would not stop Ukrainian forces occupying the rest of the area north/west of the Dnipro and east of the Inhulets, from which they could bring substantial artillery against what's left of the Antonivsky bridges, as well as any attempts to cross with ferries. It would also of course stop supplies being brought across the Kakhovsky bridges and sent onwards to Kherson city and its defences.

Secondly, the supply lines for this position would be extremely tenuous - the dam at Nova Kakhovka, where the bridges over the lock are already done for and they are using temporary girder bridges and trying to fill the lock with rubble, and feries across the Dnipro below the dam, or potentially above it I suppose but for the moment they are operating below. Those ferries have already been fired upon, but it's one thing being within GMLRS range, it's another being in mortar range. Supply vehicles and reinforcements will come under heavy fire from units close enough to easily react to the movement of convoys.

In short, digging in between Odradrokam'yanka and Beryslav will not give the Russians much chance of holding on long there or in Kherson city.
That defence clearly isn't going to work. Ukraine's artillery will cut supply lines between that northern bridgehead and the Kherson force.

It looks like conflicting goals.

- Ukraine's goal is attrition of Russian forces. The purpose of capturing acres isn't those acres, it's to improve their ability to steadily destroy Russian equipment. Ukraine wouldn't mind a northern Russian bridgehead that persists because that accelerates attrition. Far easier to destroy a Russian supply truck trying to cross on a ferry or the dam, than a supply truck in the streets of Kherson city.
- Putin's goal is to survive in power, which means not losing face, which means ordering the military to hold on to land west of the Dnipro. The fact that this requires a lot of resources doesn't matter to him, which brings his goals into conflict with the military.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by plodder » Fri Oct 07, 2022 6:30 am

Which presumably means generals falling out of windows

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Oct 07, 2022 8:22 am

plodder wrote:
Fri Oct 07, 2022 6:30 am
Which presumably means generals falling out of windows
Colonel-General Gennady Zhidko, who replaced Dvornikov when it became clear he couldn't get things under control, is getting a lot of criticism right now. It remains to be seen if it is the sort of criticism that will involve poisoned umbrellas or fatal falls from basement windows.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Fri Oct 07, 2022 8:48 am

Seems dangerous to be a Russian General these days.

Which is odd - given the number of troops they command. One would think it should be dangerous to defenestrate Generals instead.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:33 am

TopBadger wrote:
Fri Oct 07, 2022 8:48 am
Seems dangerous to be a Russian General these days.

Which is odd - given the number of troops they command. One would think it should be dangerous to defenestrate Generals instead.
I'm not sure to what extent any generals have been defenestrated, or otherwise bumped off. The main cause of death for generals in Ukraine appears to have been drones and artillery, and good targetting and intel from the Ukrainian side.

Though there was a colonel who received a fairly firm criticism of his leadership style from his troops when they ran him over with a tank, which he apparently survived.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:30 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:33 am
TopBadger wrote:
Fri Oct 07, 2022 8:48 am
Seems dangerous to be a Russian General these days.

Which is odd - given the number of troops they command. One would think it should be dangerous to defenestrate Generals instead.
I'm not sure to what extent any generals have been defenestrated, or otherwise bumped off. The main cause of death for generals in Ukraine appears to have been drones and artillery, and good targetting and intel from the Ukrainian side.

Though there was a colonel who received a fairly firm criticism of his leadership style from his troops when they ran him over with a tank, which he apparently survived.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:03 am


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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:24 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:03 am
Apparently an explosion on the Kerch bridge. Cause unknown.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... OPhFzgs4GA
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... OPhFzgs4GA
If it’s been hit by a Ukrainian missile, it’s longer range than is known for one that accurate. Perhaps the same thing that hit Saky airbase.

Alternative explanations are sabotage by special forces or partisans, or an accidental explosion or fire.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:26 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:24 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:03 am
Apparently an explosion on the Kerch bridge. Cause unknown.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... OPhFzgs4GA
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... OPhFzgs4GA
If it’s been hit by a Ukrainian missile, it’s longer range than is known for that accurate. Perhaps the same thing that hit Saky airbase.

Alternative explanations are sabotage by special forces or partisans, or an accidental explosion or fire.
Looks like damage in two places: https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... OPhFzgs4GA
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... OPhFzgs4GA

Damage to the road bridge and a train on the rail bridge. Fire could be from the cargo or an oil pipeline.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... OPhFzgs4GA
https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/sta ... OPhFzgs4GA
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... PpXzqFkASQ

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:44 am

Definitely serious damage to the road bridge and what looks like fuel trucks on fire on the rail bridge.
https://twitter.com/am_misfit/status/15 ... PpXzqFkASQ

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:59 am

I think we can rule out an accidental explosion damaging the road and railway.

A long range missile strike that hit a moving fuel train would be very lucky. But a missile that hit the road could have set the train on fire.

So maybe special forces?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:10 am

Photo of damage to the road bridge.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... PpXzqFkASQ

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:27 am

Dashcam footage claiming to be of the strike on the bridge appears to be is fake. Bridge was attacked at dawn and the footage is in daylight.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:56 am

Oh dear, how sad.


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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:27 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:44 am
Definitely serious damage to the road bridge and what looks like fuel trucks on fire on the rail bridge.
https://twitter.com/am_misfit/status/15 ... PpXzqFkASQ
Which means that span on the rail bridge will be seriously weakened, concrete doesn’t like being burned, and you can seriously screw up steel if the fire is hot enough.

Whatever it was, it looks like it went off in the middle of the fallen span, you can see damage to the guard rails on the adjacent surviving section. There may be damage to that section as well.

So at best they have 1/2 the road capacity they had yesterday and no rail. I am not a civil engineer, so i’ve no idea how long that would take to fix, but hopefully months, and the bridge might be hit again (and again (and again)j.

They can still supply Crimea by ferry across the straight, and by road and rail from the north, but it’s will add more strain to logistics in those areas which will hopefully soon come under fire from advancing UKR forces.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Imrael » Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:38 am

I find the timing interesting. Maybe they did this as soon as they could, but if they could have done it anytime is it.

1. Directly military. Further logistics strain on the land routes. Doesn't seen likely they could cut the land routes on the ground soon.
2. For internal consumption. A strike back after recent wave of russian attacks on civilians and power infrastructure.
3. To pressure Putin and increase russian civilian dissent

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:43 am

bjn wrote:
Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:27 am

They can still supply Crimea by ferry across the straight, and by road and rail from the north, but it’s will add more strain to logistics in those areas which will hopefully soon come under fire from advancing UKR forces.
Definitely, Russia now has a huge logistics problem for the forces in southern Ukraine.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:49 am

How could special forces deliver enough explosives for that?
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:53 am

Close up video of the damage: https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... PpXzqFkASQ

Severe fire damage to the rail bridge.

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