Blyatskrieg

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:38 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:50 am
There's reports of explosions at two Russian airbases, Engels-2 and Ryazan, that are used to attack Ukraine. There's talk of it being done with drones - Ukraine was talking about long range loitering munitions (aka suicide drones) - so that feels possible. Reportedly a couple of Tu-95 "Bear" strategic bombers were damaged at Engels-2, but this is still very unconfirmed.
Here's a link. There definitely was an explosion, but yes, some uncertainty as to what caused it: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... 11bJObNCkA

If Ukraine does have a weapon with a 1000 km range then there will be hundreds of potential Russian logistics targets. If Russia tries to defend even some of them then its going to have to withdraw air defence facilities from Ukrainian territory.

A 1000 km range is plausible. That's within what's claimed about some of the Iranian drones. Though their warheads aren't very big.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:46 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:25 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:58 pm

Reportedly these are brand new 152mm shells in Ukrainian service. I haven't bothered to translate them, but if these are reaching the frontlines, it takes the strain off 155mm supplies and keeps Ukraine's older artillery in the fight.

Might be worth seeing if the Small Diameter Bomb can be paired with an Uragan or Smerch motor, for that matter.
They aren't just new shells, it appears that Ukraine has recently restarted production of 152mm ammunition, which means that it won't be so reliant upon external supplies. I hope Russia isn't able to attack the production line.
Apparently some videos of the production. Looks pretty small scale.
https://t.me/bochkala_war/10213

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:52 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:46 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:25 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:58 pm

Reportedly these are brand new 152mm shells in Ukrainian service. I haven't bothered to translate them, but if these are reaching the frontlines, it takes the strain off 155mm supplies and keeps Ukraine's older artillery in the fight.

Might be worth seeing if the Small Diameter Bomb can be paired with an Uragan or Smerch motor, for that matter.
They aren't just new shells, it appears that Ukraine has recently restarted production of 152mm ammunition, which means that it won't be so reliant upon external supplies. I hope Russia isn't able to attack the production line.
Apparently some videos of the production. Looks pretty small scale.
https://t.me/bochkala_war/10213
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... 11bJObNCkA
Video includes the sound of something overflying at about 0:15, the light from an explosion at about 0:40 and sound from the explosion at about 20 seconds later. Of course the overflight could be coincidental. But if it is what hit the airbase then its jet powered (sound and apparent speed).

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:54 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:46 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:25 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:58 pm

Reportedly these are brand new 152mm shells in Ukrainian service. I haven't bothered to translate them, but if these are reaching the frontlines, it takes the strain off 155mm supplies and keeps Ukraine's older artillery in the fight.

Might be worth seeing if the Small Diameter Bomb can be paired with an Uragan or Smerch motor, for that matter.
They aren't just new shells, it appears that Ukraine has recently restarted production of 152mm ammunition, which means that it won't be so reliant upon external supplies. I hope Russia isn't able to attack the production line.
Apparently some videos of the production. Looks pretty small scale.
https://t.me/bochkala_war/10213
Small scale production isn't necessarily a problem if it can be replicated across multiple sites. While not ideal in terms of efficiency, it is harder for Russia to knock out in one blow.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:58 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:52 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:46 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:25 pm


They aren't just new shells, it appears that Ukraine has recently restarted production of 152mm ammunition, which means that it won't be so reliant upon external supplies. I hope Russia isn't able to attack the production line.
Apparently some videos of the production. Looks pretty small scale.
https://t.me/bochkala_war/10213
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... 11bJObNCkA
Video includes the sound of something overflying at about 0:15, the light from an explosion at about 0:40 and sound from the explosion at about 20 seconds later. Of course the overflight could be coincidental. But if it is what hit the airbase then its jet powered (sound and apparent speed).
Assuming the overflight is connected, then we've got a munition flying at mach 0.8, which is exactly in the expected speed range for a jet powered munition of this sort (I'm saying munition, because a fast-ish subsonic single use jet powered flying object that carries a warhead and aims to dive into the target to deploy that warhead isn't really a loitering munition in the conventional sense - it's probably better to think of this as a manually controlled cruise missile - and that's assuming that it is manually controlled. If it it's GPS or GPS/INS guided, or has either guidance like TERCOM or radar/IR/optical terminal guidance, then it's just a cruise missile).

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:01 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:54 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:46 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:25 pm


They aren't just new shells, it appears that Ukraine has recently restarted production of 152mm ammunition, which means that it won't be so reliant upon external supplies. I hope Russia isn't able to attack the production line.
Apparently some videos of the production. Looks pretty small scale.
https://t.me/bochkala_war/10213
Small scale production isn't necessarily a problem if it can be replicated across multiple sites. While not ideal in terms of efficiency, it is harder for Russia to knock out in one blow.
Yes, certainly. A huge WW2 style production line would just be a big target for Russian missiles.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:37 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:58 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:52 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:46 am


Apparently some videos of the production. Looks pretty small scale.
https://t.me/bochkala_war/10213
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... 11bJObNCkA
Video includes the sound of something overflying at about 0:15, the light from an explosion at about 0:40 and sound from the explosion at about 20 seconds later. Of course the overflight could be coincidental. But if it is what hit the airbase then its jet powered (sound and apparent speed).
Assuming the overflight is connected, then we've got a munition flying at mach 0.8, which is exactly in the expected speed range for a jet powered munition of this sort (I'm saying munition, because a fast-ish subsonic single use jet powered flying object that carries a warhead and aims to dive into the target to deploy that warhead isn't really a loitering munition in the conventional sense - it's probably better to think of this as a manually controlled cruise missile - and that's assuming that it is manually controlled. If it it's GPS or GPS/INS guided, or has either guidance like TERCOM or radar/IR/optical terminal guidance, then it's just a cruise missile).
https://ukrjet.ua/eng#topaz
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:54 am

jimbob wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:37 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:58 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:52 am

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... 11bJObNCkA
Video includes the sound of something overflying at about 0:15, the light from an explosion at about 0:40 and sound from the explosion at about 20 seconds later. Of course the overflight could be coincidental. But if it is what hit the airbase then its jet powered (sound and apparent speed).
Assuming the overflight is connected, then we've got a munition flying at mach 0.8, which is exactly in the expected speed range for a jet powered munition of this sort (I'm saying munition, because a fast-ish subsonic single use jet powered flying object that carries a warhead and aims to dive into the target to deploy that warhead isn't really a loitering munition in the conventional sense - it's probably better to think of this as a manually controlled cruise missile - and that's assuming that it is manually controlled. If it it's GPS or GPS/INS guided, or has either guidance like TERCOM or radar/IR/optical terminal guidance, then it's just a cruise missile).
https://ukrjet.ua/eng#topaz
They list the radius of controlled flight as 100km, though. On the other hand, they list the flight time as 90 min and with a speed of 600-800km/h, that would give a range of 1000km - and 1000km is conjecture, Engels-2 and Ryazan are in the 450-600km range from the border.

They also give the maximum flight time in minutes, underneath the entry where they give it in min, as 20, like this;

"Maximum flight time, min Up to 90
Maximum flight time, minutes 20"

So something doesn't add up on that page, but it could even just be a type of 100 for 1000, or it could be something else.

That looks exactly like the sort of system that one would expect to be used for this, weird stats notwithstanding. Also, though it probably isn't truly stealthy, it probably doesn't have a huge radar cross section. One of those loaded with explosives would give something similar in performance to a cruise missile, save for the radically smaller warhead. On the other hand, the blast at Engels-2 looked pretty big, and if it damaged two Tu-95s, it was big, because those things are huge. Grafting on a third hand, however, it should be noted that if they were able to hit fuel or ammunition stores, they don't need anything like as much warhead.

Also, if the stats listed are correct and the limiting factor is the base station range, then modifying it to fly to specific coordinates and hit them without human intervention - turning it into a true cruise missile - would allow it to operate beyond the range of base stations anyway.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:09 pm

I've seen a few more articles discussing contracts are being inked over GLSDB's - anyone seen anything more definitive on these concerning supply to Ukraine? Rumour is they'll be coming next year.

Given how much much a fairly limited number (12?) of HIMAR's / MLRS systems have turned the tide... I can only expect that these will make a huge difference, given they have 2x range, and apparently will feature a containerized firing platform, suggesting they'll be able to be fired from anything capable of carrying a container... e.g. lorry trailers and transport boats, and that it seems the lower cost / complexity means it will be possible to supply significantly more of them and their munitions'.

HIMAR's turned the tide, but I see this weapon in particular as the tide coming in thick and fast against Russia, as the Russian advantage in numbers of artillery pieces could be worth very little in a few months time, as the number of pieces they have could be eroded very quickly and /or pushed out of range so as to be utterly ineffective.

Perhaps that's the plan... establish Ukrainian long range fires superiority, then give them more APC's / Tanks to push infantry back with less risk to those forces.

ETA - promotional video from Saab - shows mock up of containerized platform.

https://twitter.com/SaabFI/status/15972 ... rike-range
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:39 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:09 pm
I've seen a few more articles discussing contracts are being inked over GLSDB's - anyone seen anything more definitive on these concerning supply to Ukraine? Rumour is they'll be coming next year.

Given how much much a fairly limited number (12?) of HIMAR's / MLRS systems have turned the tide... I can only expect that these will make a huge difference, given they have 2x range, and apparently will feature a containerized firing platform, suggesting they'll be able to be fired from anything capable of carrying a container... e.g. lorry trailers and transport boats, and that it seems the lower cost / complexity means it will be possible to supply significantly more of them and their munitions'.

HIMAR's turned the tide, but I see this weapon in particular as the tide coming in thick and fast against Russia, as the Russian advantage in numbers of artillery pieces could be worth very little in a few months time, as the number of pieces they have could be eroded very quickly and /or pushed out of range so as to be utterly ineffective.

Perhaps that's the plan... establish Ukrainian long range fires superiority, then give them more APC's / Tanks to push infantry back with less risk to those forces.

ETA - promotional video from Saab - shows mock up of containerized platform.

https://twitter.com/SaabFI/status/15972 ... rike-range
There's nothing solid about GLSDB yet. Saab are talking about getting contracts, Ukraine are asking to buy it. Early 2023 is the earliest any quantity can be produced, I think. Ukraine aren't the only people that are likely to want it, though, so Saab getting contracts doesn't guarantee they'll be Ukrainian ones. I think it's quite likely Ukraine get it, but I wouldn't be certain as, if nothing else, it potentially relies on multiple countries giving the go ahead.

Oryx keeps a running total of heavy weapons sent to Ukraine, incidentally, and it is a very useful resource.
They list 38 M142 HIMARS and 13 M270 MLRS. All the M270s have been delivered, but I think delivered HIMARS numbers are something like 20 or 24.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Dec 05, 2022 7:40 pm

The U.S. secretly modified the advanced Himars rocket launchers it gave Ukraine so they can’t be used to fire long-range missiles into Russia, U.S. officials said, a precaution the Biden administration says is necessary to reduce the risk of a wider war with Moscow.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-altere ... 1670214338

Rest of the article is paywalled.

If so we can rule out ATACMS use against Saky or the Kerch Bridge.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:12 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 7:40 pm
The U.S. secretly modified the advanced Himars rocket launchers it gave Ukraine so they can’t be used to fire long-range missiles into Russia, U.S. officials said, a precaution the Biden administration says is necessary to reduce the risk of a wider war with Moscow.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-altere ... 1670214338

Rest of the article is paywalled.

If so we can rule out ATACMS use against Saky or the Kerch Bridge.
The "secret modification" is probably just a software installation switch that removes the targeting model for particular kinds of ordnance. It's almost certainly easy to undo by US techs.

But it shows that the US does/did not want to provide that capability.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:29 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:12 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 7:40 pm
The U.S. secretly modified the advanced Himars rocket launchers it gave Ukraine so they can’t be used to fire long-range missiles into Russia, U.S. officials said, a precaution the Biden administration says is necessary to reduce the risk of a wider war with Moscow.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-altere ... 1670214338

Rest of the article is paywalled.

If so we can rule out ATACMS use against Saky or the Kerch Bridge.
The "secret modification" is probably just a software installation switch that removes the targeting model for particular kinds of ordnance. It's almost certainly easy to undo by US techs.

But it shows that the US does/did not want to provide that capability.
Yes, I agree. A software update is most likely.

A consequence would be that Ukraine couldn’t use an ATACMS that had earlier been exported by the US to a third party.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:41 am

The attack on Dyagilevo airbase near Ryazan appears to have damaged a Tu-22M3 bomber

Russian sources claim a Tu-141 drone was used for this. The Tu-141 is a very old fashioned drone, it was designed to overfly parts of the battlefield with a camera then return to allow the images to be processed. Conveniently, the airframe needed to do that is actually about the same as the airframe needed for a cruise missile. Small, high subsonic, and with a reasonable range; potentially around 1000km, though it depends on the warhead fitted.

Dyagilevo airbase is about 450km from Ukraine's borders, a similar distance away from Ukraine, in fact, as Moscow.

Shortly after the strikes on Dyagilev and Engels-2 airbases, Russian strategic bombers took off to attack Ukraine. Some are phrasing this as retaliation - this is false. I takes time to plan and ready a massed missile attack. It's at the point where satellite recon is giving some advanced recon as it takes them time to bomb up the planes. Instead, it appears that the Ukrainian attacks anticipated the use of strategic bombers, perhaps in the hope of doing more damage when the targets were armed and fuelled and outside of any hardened shelters.

Anyway, Ukraine appear to have damaged as many as three strategic bombers - a Tu-22M3 "Backfire" at Dyagilevo is confirmed by satellite imagery and thus on the Oryx list and two Tu-95 "Bear"s at Engels-2. The Tu-95 was right up there with Sarmat TELs and Typhoon class subs on the list of things we did not expect to see on the Oryx list. Hitting at Russia's strategic bombers is a remarkably impressive feat of arms, all the more so for using improvised weapons. Given that Ukraine used to have strategic bombers and their associated standoff missiles but instead of mothballing them they were destroyed under western pressure in return for western security guarantees, we should transfer to Ukraine the arms needed to hit those strategic bombers on the ground and assist wherever we can in developing more munitions like the ones used.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:45 am


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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:55 am


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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:40 pm

EACL

You've mentioned a few times that Ukraine received security guarantees from the West.

I assume that you refer to the Budapest memorandum. That agreement didn't involve any state guaranteeing Ukraine's security. You can read the text here: https://treaties.un.org/Pages/showDetai ... 0280401fbb

The signatories, the UK, US and Russia only stated that they would respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and borders (Article 1) and that they will refrain from the use of force or economic coercion against Ukraine (Articles 2 and 3). Those Articles refer to what each signatory shouldn't do, and not to what they should do if Ukraine was attacked.

The only commitment if Ukraine was to be attacked is that the signatories would seek UN Security Council assistance for Ukraine (Article 5) and that the UK, US and Russia would consult with each other (Article 6). Article 5 is an empty commitment as the Security Council would normally debate any act of aggression, and 'seek' is a very weak verb.

These are not security guarantees.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:54 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:40 pm
EACL

You've mentioned a few times that Ukraine received security guarantees from the West.

I assume that you refer to the Budapest memorandum. That agreement didn't involve any state guaranteeing Ukraine's security. You can read the text here: https://treaties.un.org/Pages/showDetai ... 0280401fbb

The signatories, the UK, US and Russia only stated that they would respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and borders (Article 1) and that they will refrain from the use of force or economic coercion against Ukraine (Articles 2 and 3). Those Articles refer to what each signatory shouldn't do, and not to what they should do if Ukraine was attacked.

The only commitment if Ukraine was to be attacked is that the signatories would seek UN Security Council assistance for Ukraine (Article 5) and that the UK, US and Russia would consult with each other (Article 6). Article 5 is an empty commitment as the Security Council would normally debate any act of aggression, and 'seek' is a very weak verb.

These are not security guarantees.
That's fair enough, yes, guarantees is too strong a word for that level of commitment. I never meant to suggest anything equivalent to NATO article five or anything like that.

Nonetheless, at this point there was heavy pressure put on Ukraine to disarm especiallyy from the US who had bought into the idea that the end of communism meant the end of threat and ignored Muscovite imperialism. This meant that Ukraine's Tu-22Ms were destroyed. Ukraine reactivated a number of cold war relics after 2014 - their 2S7 Pions being an obvious example - and the Tu-22Ms would have been a useful deterrent/strike option, as unlike anything Ukraine ended up left with, they were capable of operating standoff munitions.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:33 pm

Per CNN reporting, US appear to be going to supply the Patriot missile system to Ukraine. This is something Ukraine have been asking for for a long time. It won't be a quick process, though. It's a complicated system, and it will be even more complicated to integrate it into Ukraine's air defences especially re: risk of friendly fire. It's a system that's pretty notorious for a couple of shootdowns of friendly planes, and an another attempted one.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:24 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:33 pm
Per CNN reporting, US appear to be going to supply the Patriot missile system to Ukraine. This is something Ukraine have been asking for for a long time. It won't be a quick process, though. It's a complicated system, and it will be even more complicated to integrate it into Ukraine's air defences especially re: risk of friendly fire. It's a system that's pretty notorious for a couple of shootdowns of friendly planes, and an another attempted one.
"Shoot first - ask questions later... like a True PatriotTM" - The NRA (probably)

But seriously - about bl..dy time. How much infrastructure would still be working if these were provided 6 months ago...
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:34 am

Russian logistics are still being attacked

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... dApp_Other

Bridge near Melitopol collapsed.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:19 am

And an Italian SAMP-T air defence too, apparently. It's a land-based SAM system with the same sort of air defence capability and missiles as the Royal Navy's Type 45 Destroyer.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:14 am

jimbob wrote:
Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:34 am
Russian logistics are still being attacked

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... dApp_Other

Bridge near Melitopol collapsed.
It's a good tactic that's working well for them - keep reducing supply lines so that Russian positions become untenable and they have to fall back...

Following this logic to it's conclusion it makes me wonder how far back to their own border the Russians will get before deciding to withdraw entirely...
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:00 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:14 am
jimbob wrote:
Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:34 am
Russian logistics are still being attacked

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... dApp_Other

Bridge near Melitopol collapsed.
It's a good tactic that's working well for them - keep reducing supply lines so that Russian positions become untenable and they have to fall back...

Following this logic to it's conclusion it makes me wonder how far back to their own border the Russians will get before deciding to withdraw entirely...
Yup, it's been the most consistent part of Ukrainian strategy. Corrode Russian capabilities, especially by hampering logistics.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:07 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:14 am
Following this logic to it's conclusion it makes me wonder how far back to their own border the Russians will get before deciding to withdraw entirely...
Though the closer they get to their border the shorter the supply lines. Donetsk will be much easier for them to supply than was Kherson.

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