Blyatskrieg

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by headshot » Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:08 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:32 am
I bought iodine pills a while back. Go get some folks.
What sort do you need??

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:15 pm

headshot wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:08 pm
bjn wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:32 am
I bought iodine pills a while back. Go get some folks.
What sort do you need??
Potassium Iodide 130 mg.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:20 pm

I’m not currently worried by a nuclear war, more a deliberately induced repeat of Chernobyl.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by headshot » Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:25 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:20 pm
I’m not currently worried by a nuclear war, more a deliberately induced repeat of Chernobyl.
Indeed. Iodine isn’t going to help if humanity is wiped out.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:26 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:20 pm
I’m not currently worried by a nuclear war, more a deliberately induced repeat of Chernobyl.
Indeed. No point in a city dweller taking Iodine in a nuclear war between Russia and the UK. But in the event of a nuclear power station catastrophe iodine would be a good way to reduce your risk of getting cancer.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by WFJ » Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:30 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:26 pm
bjn wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:20 pm
I’m not currently worried by a nuclear war, more a deliberately induced repeat of Chernobyl.
Indeed. No point in a city dweller taking Iodine in a nuclear war between Russia and the UK. But in the event of a nuclear power station catastrophe iodine would be a good way to reduce your risk of getting cancer.
For someone living in nearby Ukraine maybe. But even if there were problems at the plant, it's not going to go bang and spread radioactive material across Europe like Chernobyl did.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:32 pm

This is ridiculous. It is 2,500 km away.

There's more risk from Sizewell or a French plant.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:43 pm

Depends on what the Russians do and the wind direction. I bought mine early on in the piece before the reactors were shut down and were being dickheads.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:44 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:32 pm
This is ridiculous. It is 2,500 km away.

There's more risk from Sizewell or a French plant.
Similar to Chernobyl, which affected parts of the UK. Agriculture restrictions continued until 2012.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jun 06, 2023 1:01 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:32 pm
This is ridiculous. It is 2,500 km away.

There's more risk from Sizewell or a French plant.
Neither of those are a) occupied by the Russian military, who have installed military equipment in the vicinity of the reactors, b) dependent on a cooling pond that is vulnerable to damage and no longer able to be refilled due to the destruction of the primary reservoir, c) dependant on external energy sources to maintain cooling of the shutdown reactors, the cabling providing which has been repeatedly damaged over the period of the occupation, or d) subject the nuclear brinkmanship.

The Russians have shown a willingness to destroy what they cannot possess. BJN notes the possibility of a deliberately induced Chernobyl type scenario. That's a possibility - perhaps not the likeliest, but precautions against it cost little. There's also the genuine risk of a Chernobyl type scenario induced by recklessness and brinkmanship on the behalf of the Russian occupiers, who have repeatedly demonstrated a flagrant disregard for nuclear safety during their occupation of Enerhodar.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Tue Jun 06, 2023 1:13 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:44 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:32 pm
This is ridiculous. It is 2,500 km away.

There's more risk from Sizewell or a French plant.
Similar to Chernobyl, which affected parts of the UK. Agriculture restrictions continued until 2012.
... which has nothing to do with taking iodine pills.

Come on, when has this forum exaggerated the risks from SCARY RADIOACTIVITY?
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Tue Jun 06, 2023 1:16 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 1:01 pm
but precautions against it cost little.
On the contrary, precautions would cost Europe billions. Probably cost more than the pathetic amount of military aid given to Ukraine.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:37 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 5:28 pm
A Russian source posted a photo to indicate that they were under attack from Leopard 2s. Problem is it was actually an AMX-10RC. There also isn't any context for the picture, other than that it is an AMX-10RC. It's going to be like Panzer-IVs and Tigers all over again, isn't it.

ETA: It's hard to know exactly what's going on, but it does look like we have reached the probing attacks phase of the offensive - this isn't going to be the main effort, unless a weakness is found that can be exploited. It's also important to remember that a) Ukrainian OPSEC is good enough most of the sources we have are Russian and b) Russian sources just f.cking lie all the f.cking time and not always in predictable or logical directions. They invent attacks that they then later repulse, and so on.

Also note that this stage will likely see some Ukrainian probing attacks/reconnaissance in force missions go wrong. There will be losses, sadly, but it is also important to keep the scope of it in perspective. If you see an abandoned vehicle or two, it doesn't mean the offensive has failed. We saw a lot of doom-mongering about the Kherson counteroffensive from irresponsible journalists based on extremely fragmented evidence, yet ultimately the Ukrainian forces advanced through a significant part of Kherson oblast and in conjunction with operations against the bridges, forced the Russians to retreat across the Dnipro.
Well, some of these Leopard 2 tanks were actually combine harvesters.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/leopard-t ... y-tractors
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:41 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:37 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 5:28 pm
A Russian source posted a photo to indicate that they were under attack from Leopard 2s. Problem is it was actually an AMX-10RC. There also isn't any context for the picture, other than that it is an AMX-10RC. It's going to be like Panzer-IVs and Tigers all over again, isn't it.

ETA: It's hard to know exactly what's going on, but it does look like we have reached the probing attacks phase of the offensive - this isn't going to be the main effort, unless a weakness is found that can be exploited. It's also important to remember that a) Ukrainian OPSEC is good enough most of the sources we have are Russian and b) Russian sources just f.cking lie all the f.cking time and not always in predictable or logical directions. They invent attacks that they then later repulse, and so on.

Also note that this stage will likely see some Ukrainian probing attacks/reconnaissance in force missions go wrong. There will be losses, sadly, but it is also important to keep the scope of it in perspective. If you see an abandoned vehicle or two, it doesn't mean the offensive has failed. We saw a lot of doom-mongering about the Kherson counteroffensive from irresponsible journalists based on extremely fragmented evidence, yet ultimately the Ukrainian forces advanced through a significant part of Kherson oblast and in conjunction with operations against the bridges, forced the Russians to retreat across the Dnipro.
Well, some of these Leopard 2 tanks were actually combine harvesters.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/leopard-t ... y-tractors
I remember the one time they actually hit something Nazi related - when they announced the destruction of a boat full of Ukrainian saboteurs but it was actually a cormorant-covered concrete pier from when the Nazis tried to build a Dnipro bridge during the war.

I hope those combines were empty when hit. Ukrainian farmers have suffered far too much already.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:03 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:41 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:37 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 5:28 pm
A Russian source posted a photo to indicate that they were under attack from Leopard 2s. Problem is it was actually an AMX-10RC. There also isn't any context for the picture, other than that it is an AMX-10RC. It's going to be like Panzer-IVs and Tigers all over again, isn't it.

ETA: It's hard to know exactly what's going on, but it does look like we have reached the probing attacks phase of the offensive - this isn't going to be the main effort, unless a weakness is found that can be exploited. It's also important to remember that a) Ukrainian OPSEC is good enough most of the sources we have are Russian and b) Russian sources just f.cking lie all the f.cking time and not always in predictable or logical directions. They invent attacks that they then later repulse, and so on.

Also note that this stage will likely see some Ukrainian probing attacks/reconnaissance in force missions go wrong. There will be losses, sadly, but it is also important to keep the scope of it in perspective. If you see an abandoned vehicle or two, it doesn't mean the offensive has failed. We saw a lot of doom-mongering about the Kherson counteroffensive from irresponsible journalists based on extremely fragmented evidence, yet ultimately the Ukrainian forces advanced through a significant part of Kherson oblast and in conjunction with operations against the bridges, forced the Russians to retreat across the Dnipro.
Well, some of these Leopard 2 tanks were actually combine harvesters.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/leopard-t ... y-tractors
I remember the one time they actually hit something Nazi related - when they announced the destruction of a boat full of Ukrainian saboteurs but it was actually a cormorant-covered concrete pier from when the Nazis tried to build a Dnipro bridge during the war.

I hope those combines were empty when hit. Ukrainian farmers have suffered far too much already.
Indeed, but it's also quite likely that they would be deliberately targeting them if they knew they were tractors with civilians.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:10 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:03 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:41 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:37 pm


Well, some of these Leopard 2 tanks were actually combine harvesters.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/leopard-t ... y-tractors
I remember the one time they actually hit something Nazi related - when they announced the destruction of a boat full of Ukrainian saboteurs but it was actually a cormorant-covered concrete pier from when the Nazis tried to build a Dnipro bridge during the war.

I hope those combines were empty when hit. Ukrainian farmers have suffered far too much already.
Indeed, but it's also quite likely that they would be deliberately targeting them if they knew they were tractors with civilians.
Yes. They quite deliberately targetted food infrastructure in Syria, and creating food shortages and chaos they can exploit, as well as damaging the agrarian economy of Ukraine, may have been among the motives for destroying the Kakhovsky Dam. Hundreds were killed in Syria in strikes against bakeries and breadlines alone.

Given the continued threat Russia poses to the global food supply, we should ensure that the entirety of their Black Sea Fleet, down to the smallest dinghy, is sunk as soon as possible.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:32 pm

Looks like Russia is struggling in Belgorod with mutinies

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 02339?s=20

Thread here
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:47 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:32 pm
Looks like Russia is struggling in Belgorod with mutinies

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 02339?s=20

Thread here
Makes you wonder if that shouldn't be the tactic... for Ukraine to invade Russia, go for Belgorod and force Russia to pull units from Ukraine to defend it's territory... thus making it easier for Ukraine to take back its land. Or give it something to negotiate handing back if that time comes.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:16 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:47 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:32 pm
Looks like Russia is struggling in Belgorod with mutinies

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 02339?s=20

Thread here
Makes you wonder if that shouldn't be the tactic... for Ukraine to invade Russia, go for Belgorod and force Russia to pull units from Ukraine to defend it's territory... thus making it easier for Ukraine to take back its land. Or give it something to negotiate handing back if that time comes.
Yes it makes a lot of sense from a lot of angles. It is something that the Kremlin can't ignore. They need significant materiel to protect against such incursions, and as the second raid was far larger than the first, it's a message that the next one might be even bigger. It is damaging some important Russian industry and completely negated any propaganda value of capturing Bakhmut. It's a great distraction, and if they don't do anything about it, I guess a lot of the Russian defensive lines might be bypassable by going through Russia.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 07, 2023 11:43 am

Australia, the US and Ukraine are discussing sending 41 Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 Hornets to Kyiv helping fulfil part of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for fighter jets, rather than sending them to the scrapheap as planned.

[...]

The retired F/A-18s are sitting in a hangar at the Williamtown RAAF base outside Newcastle and unless sent to Ukraine, will either be scrapped or sold to a private sector aviation company, RAVN Aerospace, to use in the US as “enemies” for military aviators to train against

Robert Potter, an Australian security expert advising the Ukrainian government, confirmed negotiations were underway, but a specific deal is yet to be finalised.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/re ... 605-p5de0h

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Jun 07, 2023 5:49 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 07, 2023 11:43 am
Australia, the US and Ukraine are discussing sending 41 Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 Hornets to Kyiv helping fulfil part of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for fighter jets, rather than sending them to the scrapheap as planned.

[...]

The retired F/A-18s are sitting in a hangar at the Williamtown RAAF base outside Newcastle and unless sent to Ukraine, will either be scrapped or sold to a private sector aviation company, RAVN Aerospace, to use in the US as “enemies” for military aviators to train against

Robert Potter, an Australian security expert advising the Ukrainian government, confirmed negotiations were underway, but a specific deal is yet to be finalised.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/re ... 605-p5de0h
Needless to say the F/A-18 is a good jet and would be a fine addition to Ukraine's arsenal. That's enough for two squadrons even if some are stripped for parts to keep the others flying. They are probably a better option than early-model F-16s, too, not least because their design heritage as carrier capable aircraft means they have strongly built landing gear that can also cope with rough runways, something Australia liked about the design when choosing it. Additionally, Ukrainian fighter pilots are all going to be used to operating twin engine aircraft already.

Australian Hornets were also pretty heavily upgraded and can operate AMRAAMs for long range air-to-air combat and the very capable ASRAAM for short range air to air combat. For ground attack they can operate Paveways and, more likely useful in the Ukrainian context, JDAMs and JDAM-ERs. They can also operate Harpoons, which gives options for threatening Russian war ships even when they stay away from the Ukrainian coast, and JASSM air-launched low-observable cruise missiles - very roughly the American equivalent of Storm Shadow. These would be ideal for many strikes and would allow a substantial increase in that sort of strike, as America has a lot of early JASSMs that are due to be replaced by more advanced variants which are being produced at a significant rate, just so long as America can be persuaded to part with long range missiles...

And so long as Australia can be persuaded to part with some aircraft that would otherwise be scrap. Given the AUKUS deal, hopefully the UK and USA can lean on them and perhaps raise some funds to help cover some of the costs involved or downright purchase them.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 07, 2023 7:50 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Jun 07, 2023 5:49 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 07, 2023 11:43 am
Australia, the US and Ukraine are discussing sending 41 Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 Hornets to Kyiv helping fulfil part of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for fighter jets, rather than sending them to the scrapheap as planned.

[...]

The retired F/A-18s are sitting in a hangar at the Williamtown RAAF base outside Newcastle and unless sent to Ukraine, will either be scrapped or sold to a private sector aviation company, RAVN Aerospace, to use in the US as “enemies” for military aviators to train against

Robert Potter, an Australian security expert advising the Ukrainian government, confirmed negotiations were underway, but a specific deal is yet to be finalised.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/re ... 605-p5de0h
Needless to say the F/A-18 is a good jet and would be a fine addition to Ukraine's arsenal. That's enough for two squadrons even if some are stripped for parts to keep the others flying. They are probably a better option than early-model F-16s, too, not least because their design heritage as carrier capable aircraft means they have strongly built landing gear that can also cope with rough runways, something Australia liked about the design when choosing it. Additionally, Ukrainian fighter pilots are all going to be used to operating twin engine aircraft already.

Australian Hornets were also pretty heavily upgraded and can operate AMRAAMs for long range air-to-air combat and the very capable ASRAAM for short range air to air combat. For ground attack they can operate Paveways and, more likely useful in the Ukrainian context, JDAMs and JDAM-ERs. They can also operate Harpoons, which gives options for threatening Russian war ships even when they stay away from the Ukrainian coast, and JASSM air-launched low-observable cruise missiles - very roughly the American equivalent of Storm Shadow. These would be ideal for many strikes and would allow a substantial increase in that sort of strike, as America has a lot of early JASSMs that are due to be replaced by more advanced variants which are being produced at a significant rate, just so long as America can be persuaded to part with long range missiles...

And so long as Australia can be persuaded to part with some aircraft that would otherwise be scrap. Given the AUKUS deal, hopefully the UK and USA can lean on them and perhaps raise some funds to help cover some of the costs involved or downright purchase them.
I agree, assuming the report is correct the only problems may be the costs of refurbishing them and who would have to pay for that.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Herainestold » Thu Jun 08, 2023 4:29 am

bjn wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:20 pm
I’m not currently worried by a nuclear war, more a deliberately induced repeat of Chernobyl.
Its salami slicing. First the destruction of a major dam. Next will be the destruction of the Zaporizha nuke plant.
Then a tactical nuclear weapon, to make parts of Ukraine uninhabitable for generations.
After that is just another small escalation to the big one.

Iodine might be useful for the first two scenarios, after that you want to be on a different continent. Or planet.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Thu Jun 08, 2023 5:44 am

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Jun 08, 2023 4:29 am
bjn wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:20 pm
I’m not currently worried by a nuclear war, more a deliberately induced repeat of Chernobyl.
Its salami slicing. First the destruction of a major dam. Next will be the destruction of the Zaporizha nuke plant.
Then a tactical nuclear weapon, to make parts of Ukraine uninhabitable for generations.
After that is just another small escalation to the big one.

Iodine might be useful for the first two scenarios, after that you want to be on a different continent. Or planet.
f.ck off tankie.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jun 08, 2023 2:00 pm

So far still in the realm of probing attacks - basically pushing on doors and trying doorhandles to see if anything's unlocked - and preliminary fires, but it's pretty safe to say the Ukrainian summer offensive is underway.

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