Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

[IvanV]

Hamas has apparently said it is accepting Israel's ceasefire offer just as offered, but Netanyahu is saying it is unacceptable. The difficulty is over what might happen next. Hamas wants to use the ceasefire to talk about an end to hostilities, but Israel will not contemplate an end to hostilities until Hamas is destroyed, whatever that means.

I assume that what Israel is looking to repeat is when in 1982 about 15000 PLO members and leadership were expelled from Lebanon after the country was invaded by Israel and Beirut besieged. I'm not sure where Hamas might go to though.

There were some rather different circumstances. They were on Lebanese territory and a large number of Lebanese were dying in the cross-fire. The PLO were fighting with Lebanese factions as well as the Israelis. That might explain why there was a broad interest in getting them out of Lebanon. A mainly Muslim multi-national arrived to enforce their removal, and Tunisia was willing to take them.

Currently they are on their own land, the people dying in the cross-fire are Palestinians, there is no one willing to take them, and no mainly Muslim multi-national force is willing to act as peacekeeper. Some might be happy to leave, but they are largely civilians, and probably Hamas would wish to impede not facilitate that.

When I think if some Israelis might have a historical comparison in mind, I wonder if they are thinking of the defeat of the Nazis, where everything became nice again after that. (Except, umm, in the large areas of Europe that Stalin annexed.) And the Germans did have some more successful prior experience of parliamentary government. And more widely, very few wars have ended like that.

[Imrael]

Hamas has apparently said it is accepting Israel's ceasefire offer just as offered, but Netanyahu is saying it is unacceptable. The difficulty is over what might happen next. Hamas wants to use the ceasefire to talk about an end to hostilities, but Israel will not contemplate an end to hostilities until Hamas is destroyed, whatever that means.

I assume that what Israel is looking to repeat is when in 1982 about 15000 PLO members and leadership were expelled from Lebanon after the country was invaded by Israel and Beirut besieged. I'm not sure where Hamas might go to though.

There were some rather different circumstances. They were on Lebanese territory and a large number of Lebanese were dying in the cross-fire. The PLO were fighting with Lebanese factions as well as the Israelis. That might explain why there was a broad interest in getting them out of Lebanon. A mainly Muslim multi-national arrived to enforce their removal, and Tunisia was willing to take them.

Currently they are on their own land, the people dying in the cross-fire are Palestinians, there is no one willing to take them, and no mainly Muslim multi-national force is willing to act as peacekeeper. Some might be happy to leave, but they are largely civilians, and probably Hamas would wish to impede not facilitate that.

When I think if some Israelis might have a historical comparison in mind, I wonder if they are thinking of the defeat of the Nazis, where everything became nice again after that. (Except, umm, in the large areas of Europe that Stalin annexed.) And the Germans did have some more successful prior experience of parliamentary government. And more widely, very few wars have ended like that.

Lots of ethnic Germans displaced in the aftermath of the war. Mostly into East Germany, so perhaps less visible to western historians. Which of course might be exactly the precedent some more militant Israelis are thinking of.

[Fishnut]

It seems impossible given how awful things already are, but things are going to get an awful lot worse very quickly,

UN officials told the Guardian on Wednesday afternoon that their warehouses were now completely empty south of the river dividing the northern third of the Gaza from the south, with no likelihood of resupply as long as the main entry points into the territory remain closed after Israeli offensives launched in recent days.

An entirely man-made famine is underway. Food is waiting to be delivered, it's sitting there on the other side of the wall but Israel is refusing to let it in. This is genocide and it needs to end.

[Woodchopper]

The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for three senior Hamas leaders and two Israeli leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity. This is a big deal.

For those that aren't legal nerds, the previous case was in the International Court of Justice which covers disputes between governments. The International Criminal court was specifically set up to investigate and prosecute war crimes and other gross violations of human rights. Merely by issuing arrest warrants the court has indicated that there is good evidence that the parties are guilty.

As often happens, the ICC asked for advice from an independent panel. They have published their report and a short article, I'll quote from the latter:

[...]

For months, we have engaged in an extensive process of review and analysis. We have carefully examined each of the applications for arrest warrants, as well as underlying material produced by the prosecution team in support of the applications. This has included witness statements, expert evidence, official communications, videos and photographs. In our legal report published today, we unanimously agree that the prosecutor’s work was rigorous, fair and grounded in the law and the facts. And we unanimously agree that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the suspects he identifies have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity within the jurisdiction of the ICC.

[...]

The Panel unanimously agrees with the prosecutor’s conclusion that there are reasonable grounds to believe that three of Hamas’s most senior leaders — Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh — have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity for the killing of hundreds of civilians, the taking of at least 245 hostages and acts of sexual violence committed against Israeli hostages. The Panel also unanimously agrees that the evidence presented by the prosecutor provides reasonable grounds to believe that Netanyahu and Israel’s minister of defence Yoav Gallant have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. This includes the war crime of intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare and the murder and persecution of Palestinians as crimes against humanity.

[...]

It is important to understand that the charges have nothing to do with the reasons for the conflict. The charges concern waging war in a manner that violates the long-established rules of international law that apply to armed groups and the armed forces in every state in the world. And, of course, the warrant applications announced today are just the first step. We hope that the prosecutor will continue to conduct focused investigations including in relation to the extensive harm suffered by civilians as a result of the bombing campaign in Gaza and evidence of sexual violence committed against Israelis on October 7. 

https://www.ft.com/content/aa2089c5-638 ... 68f3a788ce

The full report can be found here. https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/f ... rt-eng.pdf
Its quite brief and fairly clearly written.

The ICC tends to be the court that leaders do worry about. Of course they are all relatively safe if they can stay protected at home. But especially for Netanyahu and Gallant an arrest warrant will affect how they can interact with other countries. Netanyahu for example shouldn't be able to visit a state that is part of the ICC. This would last indefinitely (eg after he has stopped being prime minister).

[Gfamily]

The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for three senior Hamas leaders and two Israeli leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity. This is a big deal.

Just to clarify; an application has been made by the chief ICC prosecutor for an arrest warrant to be issued.
This will go to three ICC judges to consider, and it is likely to be a couple of months before a decision is made.
Yes, a big deal, but the application has yet to be considered.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/article ... war-crimes

[Woodchopper]

The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for three senior Hamas leaders and two Israeli leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity. This is a big deal.

Just to clarify; an application has been made by the chief ICC prosecutor for an arrest warrant to be issued.
This will go to three ICC judges to consider, and it is likely to be a couple of months before a decision is made.
Yes, a big deal, but the application has yet to be considered.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/article ... war-crimes

Thanks, I seem to have been sidetracked by the panel report.

[Woodchopper]

A good summary:

Nuts & Bolts of Int’l Criminal Court Arrest Warrant Applications for Senior Israeli Officials and Hamas Leaders
https://www.justsecurity.org/95864/inte ... ael-hamas/

[El Pollo Diablo]

All the rhetoric about the ICC "comparing" Israel to Hamas is deliberate b.llsh.t, and it's disappointing that Biden has been so hasty to decry the ICC on that basis. The ICC may have made an error in putting the two warrant applications in the same document, which in turn has allowed Netanyahu, slimy slippery sh.t that he is, to claim comparison. But there is none. Yes, there is a big difference between a proscribed terrorist organisation and a democratic state. But Hamas have committed war crimes, and Israel have committed war crimes. Both deserve to be addressed, tested, tried and, if found guilty, punished.

[discovolante]

All the rhetoric about the ICC "comparing" Israel to Hamas is deliberate b.llsh.t, and it's disappointing that Biden has been so hasty to decry the ICC on that basis. The ICC may have made an error in putting the two warrant applications in the same document, which in turn has allowed Netanyahu, slimy slippery sh.t that he is, to claim comparison. But there is none. Yes, there is a big difference between a proscribed terrorist organisation and a democratic state. But Hamas have committed war crimes, and Israel have committed war crimes. Both deserve to be addressed, tested, tried and, if found guilty, punished.

Absolutely.

Joshua Rozenberg has said that the panel have no way of testing the credibility of the evidence they have assessed (i.e. the evidence against Netanyahu may have come from Hamas). But the report was just in relation to whether warrants should be issued, not conviction. I'm not sure what alternatives are available in this situation and I don't think Joshua Rozenberg suggested any.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Tbf I think a lot of the evidence against Netanyahu comes from Netanyahu

[discovolante]

Tbf I think a lot of the evidence against Netanyahu comes from Netanyahu

Well, that too.

[Al Capone Junior]

Israel would do well to get rid of netan-f.cking-yahoo and get someone who is more interested in actually achieving peace. It's pretty obvious that the hard liner kill em all approach ain't working.

The Palestinians would also do better to get rid of Hamas, although Hamas is probably the inevitable result of the situation they have faced for a long time, which pretty much just keeps getting worse and worse. But still, Hamas hasn't really achieved much in terms of making it better or achieving peace.

I still remain on the side of the Palestinians, flawed as they may be in terms of taking actions that bring about peace.

But if what you're doing proves not to work, try something else. In both cases, ditching the hard liner approach seems like an obvious avenue they haven't tried yet.

[Al Capone Junior]

Oh, and the USA perhaps not blindly supporting the netan-f.cking-yahoo hard liner kill em all plan might also help. Good f.cking luck with that.

[Trinucleus]

Israel would do well to get rid of netan-f.cking-yahoo and get someone who is more interested in actually achieving peace. It's pretty obvious that the hard liner kill em all approach ain't working.

The Palestinians would also do better to get rid of Hamas, although Hamas is probably the inevitable result of the situation they have faced for a long time, which pretty much just keeps getting worse and worse. But still, Hamas hasn't really achieved much in terms of making it better or achieving peace.

I still remain on the side of the Palestinians, flawed as they may be in terms of taking actions that bring about peace.

But if what you're doing proves not to work, try something else. In both cases, ditching the hard liner approach seems like an obvious avenue they haven't tried yet.

Netanyahoo knows hes finished once the fighting stops, so he's keeping going, and his allies aren't calling him out