The Death Of Fossil Fuels

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bjn
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Wed May 15, 2024 10:49 am

Global battery based grid storage deployment is accelerating rapidly. In terms of GWh it is set to overtake pumped hydro next year.
In 2020 17.6GW BESS vs 159.5GW PHES (90% PHES)
In 2021 27.3GW BESS vs 165.0GW PHES (86% PHES)
In 2022 44.9GW BESS vs 175.0GW PHES (80% PHES)
In 2023 89.2GW BESS vs 185.5GW PHES (68% PHES)
In 2024e 156.6GW BESS vs 196.6GW PHES (56% PHES)
Battery electricity storage systems are still dropping down the learning curve and are much faster to deploy than pumped hydro. Pumped hydro does store more GWh, but for diurnal and short term storage, batteries are going to take over. Pumped hydro complements battery electric storage quite well, filling in for longer durations.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Wed May 15, 2024 12:27 pm

bjn wrote:
Wed May 15, 2024 10:49 am
Global battery based grid storage deployment is accelerating rapidly. In terms of GWh it is set to overtake pumped hydro next year.
In 2020 17.6GW BESS vs 159.5GW PHES (90% PHES)
In 2021 27.3GW BESS vs 165.0GW PHES (86% PHES)
In 2022 44.9GW BESS vs 175.0GW PHES (80% PHES)
In 2023 89.2GW BESS vs 185.5GW PHES (68% PHES)
In 2024e 156.6GW BESS vs 196.6GW PHES (56% PHES)
Battery electricity storage systems are still dropping down the learning curve and are much faster to deploy than pumped hydro. Pumped hydro does store more GWh, but for diurnal and short term storage, batteries are going to take over. Pumped hydro complements battery electric storage quite well, filling in for longer durations.
Missed the edit window. That second sentance should read In terms of GW not GWh.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by IvanV » Wed May 15, 2024 12:38 pm

bjn wrote:
Wed May 15, 2024 10:49 am
Battery electricity storage systems are still dropping down the learning curve and are much faster to deploy than pumped hydro. Pumped hydro does store more GWh, but for diurnal and short term storage, batteries are going to take over. Pumped hydro complements battery electric storage quite well, filling in for longer durations.
Most grid batteries have about 2 to 4 hours storage at their maximum output rate, though occasionally you see longer. Their cost is such that the longer period is not usually economic.

Whilst PHES operates well over a longer time period, it typically has only about 12 hours storage. We need a kind of storage that is economic over much longer periods to smooth out the supply from intermittent renewables. I suspect the practical mechanism for that will be some kind of chemical storage, because storing energy-dense substances is the more practical method for long-term, as such things can be much cheaper to store. Essentially, things you can store like you can store relatively easily like coal, methane, etc, but used in a round-trip rather than burnt once.

Hydrogen is an example of that, though storing it is harder than methane. I recently saw an article recently on using elemental sulphur for chemical storage, simply because it is so easy to store - you can just leave it in an outdoor heap. Though the chemical round trip is more complicated than with hydrogen. A demonstration scheme for using elemental iron has as storage has been exhibited also, though I've not come across anyone replicating it. Probably it isn't going to happen until we get a bit more desirous of cutting down on methane.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Wed May 15, 2024 1:17 pm

bjn wrote:
Wed May 15, 2024 12:27 pm
bjn wrote:
Wed May 15, 2024 10:49 am
Global battery based grid storage deployment is accelerating rapidly. In terms of GWh it is set to overtake pumped hydro next year.
In 2020 17.6GW BESS vs 159.5GW PHES (90% PHES)
In 2021 27.3GW BESS vs 165.0GW PHES (86% PHES)
In 2022 44.9GW BESS vs 175.0GW PHES (80% PHES)
In 2023 89.2GW BESS vs 185.5GW PHES (68% PHES)
In 2024e 156.6GW BESS vs 196.6GW PHES (56% PHES)
Battery electricity storage systems are still dropping down the learning curve and are much faster to deploy than pumped hydro. Pumped hydro does store more GWh, but for diurnal and short term storage, batteries are going to take over. Pumped hydro complements battery electric storage quite well, filling in for longer durations.
Missed the edit window. That second sentance should read In terms of GW not GWh.
No, it shouldn't. Because you can't store power, you can only store energy.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Wed May 15, 2024 1:45 pm

I’m well aware of the difference between power and energy. Apart from my stupid typo, how is that statement incorrect? It was explicitly a statement about power, not energy.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Wed May 15, 2024 1:56 pm

bjn wrote:
Wed May 15, 2024 1:45 pm
I’m well aware of the difference between power and energy. Apart from my stupid typo, how is that statement incorrect? It was explicitly a statement about power, not energy.
The corrected sentence would read "Pumped hydro does store more power, but for diurnal and short term storage, batteries are going to take over."

You cannot store power. Do you mean that it stores more energy (in GWh) or do you mean that it can release stored energy at a higher rate (in GW)? As corrected, the sentence does not say either of those things.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Wed May 15, 2024 3:48 pm

The second sentence, where my typo was, should have read....
Global battery based grid storage deployment is accelerating rapidly. In terms of GW it is set to overtake pumped hydro next year.
I said nothing about changing GWh -> GW in the second paragraph.

I should have just reposted the whole thing.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by IvanV » Wed May 15, 2024 4:16 pm

Electricity storage has two aspects, the energy stored measured in Wh, and the output, measured in W. For the kind of short-term grid services that grid scale batteries are mostly designed to supply, their power in W is more important than their capacity in Wh, because they are mostly only called for short periods of time. So their owners tend to size them by reporting their power in W, rather than their capacity in Wh, as it is the W that earns them money.

This has an unfortunate effect that the less informed tend to go, look how huge this battery storage is, it is on the way to solving our renewable intermittency problems. But clearly to know if we have a solution to renewable intermittency problems, then capacity becomes important. And these batteries have relatively low capacity in comparison to their power output.

In fact, we are reaching the point in Britain that there is so much grid scale battery already available, that the grid has about as much of that kind of short-term storage as it needs. The market price of that kind of service is starting to drop more because of supply conditions than demand conditions.

Another place where large scale batteries can be useful is for smoothing demand and supply at EV fast charging stations. Probably they will be used over a somewhat longer period than for supplying grid services.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Wed May 15, 2024 6:16 pm

bjn wrote:
Wed May 15, 2024 3:48 pm
The second sentence, where my typo was, should have read....
Global battery based grid storage deployment is accelerating rapidly. In terms of GW it is set to overtake pumped hydro next year.
I said nothing about changing GWh -> GW in the second paragraph.

I should have just reposted the whole thing.
Sorry, I didn't even see that paragraph.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Wed May 15, 2024 7:07 pm

My bad, I should have made the edit explicit in the text, less chance for talking at cross porpoises angry dolphins.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Wed May 15, 2024 8:01 pm

Back to the topic. Talking of grid services, batteries can help alleviate transmission capacity bottle necks. Transmission is traditionally built to service peak demand, but peak demand doesn’t last for days on end. So you are seeing batteries installed at the “far end” of distribution systems to service peak demand and so avoid having to upgrade trunk power lines. For example one of the inhabited island off the USA (Martha’s Vineyard I think) has a a battery system built to avoid spending a small fortune upgrading the power cable from the mainland.

In Sydney they are installing batteries in neighbourhoods near the transformers, which lets them avoid upgrading distribution lines which were getting overloaded both ways. On sunny days they couldn’t handle all the solar being dumped back into the grid, on peak days they couldn’t cope with demand placed on the grid.

This scales down to the domestic level. People are building electric cookers with batteries on board. You don’t run a cooker at full power for hours on end, it heats up and then maintains a steady temperature with a much lower power draw, but you need a dedicated circuit handle that peak power. Bung an appropriately sized battery in the thing and you can run a cooler off a standard plug.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by IvanV » Thu May 16, 2024 11:21 am

bjn wrote:
Wed May 15, 2024 8:01 pm
Back to the topic. Talking of grid services, batteries can help alleviate transmission capacity bottle necks. Transmission is traditionally built to service peak demand, but peak demand doesn’t last for days on end. So you are seeing batteries installed at the “far end” of distribution systems to service peak demand and so avoid having to upgrade trunk power lines. For example one of the inhabited island off the USA (Martha’s Vineyard I think) has a a battery system built to avoid spending a small fortune upgrading the power cable from the mainland.

In Sydney they are installing batteries in neighbourhoods near the transformers, which lets them avoid upgrading distribution lines which were getting overloaded both ways. On sunny days they couldn’t handle all the solar being dumped back into the grid, on peak days they couldn’t cope with demand placed on the grid.

This scales down to the domestic level. People are building electric cookers with batteries on board. You don’t run a cooker at full power for hours on end, it heats up and then maintains a steady temperature with a much lower power draw, but you need a dedicated circuit handle that peak power. Bung an appropriately sized battery in the thing and you can run a cooler off a standard plug.
Using large batteries to alleviate transmission capacity bottlenecks is one of the most valuable uses of batteries, according to some research leading energy economist David Newbery showed me a few years ago. But this only works if they are in the right place. So if you have some big battery in some random place, it can't provide that service. Which is why I'm saying the market for big batteries in (kind of) random places, able to provide high level short term grid services, is being exhausted. But that doesn't mean that there isn't substantial value for batteries in other locations.

A problem in many places is that there aren't mechanisms for remunerating batteries that provide bottleneck alleviation services. Often this is something that is required and goes on down at the distribution level, rather than high level transmission level, where charging mechanisms are very flat, and there is no mechanism for doing this. So it is down for distribution companies to do this off their own bat, and maybe the regulatory mechanisms don't suit it either.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bolo » Thu May 16, 2024 11:45 am

In California, there are enough houses with PV on the roof, selling their excess back to the grid, that on some days the daytime price of electricity is zero. As a result, some homeowners are buying batteries so they can save up their excess and sell it back at night instead.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Fri May 17, 2024 2:34 pm

bolo wrote:
Thu May 16, 2024 11:45 am
In California, there are enough houses with PV on the roof, selling their excess back to the grid, that on some days the daytime price of electricity is zero. As a result, some homeowners are buying batteries so they can save up their excess and sell it back at night instead.
California could do with electrifying a lot more stuff from what I read.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by IvanV » Fri May 17, 2024 3:54 pm

bolo wrote:
Thu May 16, 2024 11:45 am
In California, there are enough houses with PV on the roof, selling their excess back to the grid, that on some days the daytime price of electricity is zero. As a result, some homeowners are buying batteries so they can save up their excess and sell it back at night instead.
In Britain, these days it is now pretty much routine to get a battery when you install solar, even though we don't have that issue. It's mostly about being able to use more of your own electricity, and reducing the amount you sell back to the grid, as the price you get for selling is typically rather less than the price you buy electricity at. Time of use tariffs are relatively uncommon for domestic customers, and certainly not yet enforced on them.

But time-of-use tariffs are available for domestic customers, if they choose, and that gives them the ability to arbitrage the price. Typically you top up your battery from the grid - rather than PV - in the middle of the night when electricity is cheap to sell it back in when it is more expensive. So a similar idea, except the cheap excess electricity is typically at a different time of day. A friend of mine is doing that. My own equipment is insufficiently smart to do it. Of course it cycles your battery a lot more, so may reduce the life of your battery.

Though they have just brought in a new regulation that you must not put batteries in lofts, roofspaces, or voids. Presumably there is some greater fire risk. But this is typically the most convenient place to put them. My friend got his battery installed in his loft very shortly before that came in. So that is likely to complicate solar installations... Mine is in an outdoor cabinet, such was the difficulty of finding somewhere acceptable in the house.

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