General Election '24
Re: General Election '24
When you’ve lost Bramhall Parkrun…
(Bramhall is fairly well to do, for those who aren’t lucky enough to be from Stockport and environs.)
(Bramhall is fairly well to do, for those who aren’t lucky enough to be from Stockport and environs.)
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where once I used to scintillate
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- tenchboy
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Re: General Election '24
From the same:jimbob wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 7:58 am
At least one was Andrea Leadsom so not the brightest (even amongst the population of Tory MPs)
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-ministe ... s-13142247
Where do you start?Meanwhile, former leader of the Scottish Conservatives Ruth Davidson criticised those plotting against the prime minister.
"This group of people are being such paper tigers," she told the podcast.
"At any other point that they could have stepped in to really do something, to think they can now do a rear-guard action to stop a general election once Pandora is out of the bl..dy box."
If you want me Steve, just Snapchat me yeah? You know how to Snapchap me doncha Steve? You just...
Re: General Election '24
Ouch.tenchboy wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 9:01 amFrom the same:jimbob wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 7:58 am
At least one was Andrea Leadsom so not the brightest (even amongst the population of Tory MPs)
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-ministe ... s-13142247Where do you start?Meanwhile, former leader of the Scottish Conservatives Ruth Davidson criticised those plotting against the prime minister.
"This group of people are being such paper tigers," she told the podcast.
"At any other point that they could have stepped in to really do something, to think they can now do a rear-guard action to stop a general election once Pandora is out of the bl..dy box."
That is painful to read
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: General Election '24
I agree, and in addition to a decisive majority there would need to be a cross party consensus on rejoining. After everything that's happened, Britain wouldn't be credible if any progress in negotiations was likely to be reversed at the next election.jimbob wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 6:27 amYes the UK sentiment towards applying to join has to be overwhelming. Probably 2/3 majority in any referendum.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 5:57 amAnd minimal interest in the EU on reopening negotiations in the near future. Of course they’d like Britain to rejoin eventually. But right now it’s an issue that they’d like to remain on the back burner while the EU and it’s members deal with more pressing problems.Grumble wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2024 10:00 pm
Whatever you think of Brexit it’s not a good idea to rerun the referendum on it so soon. It’s entirely plausible that we can have a decent relationship with Europe outside of the EU. Maybe in another 10 years, possibly more, we can have another think about it. If you think there’s a popular mood of returning to the EU then you’re in a bubble.
It's not there yet but might be by the end of the next parliament
Of course the consensus wouldn't have to include Reform or whoever the Faragists are called in the future, nor the Ulster unionist parties. But there would need to be agreement on rejoining, and broadly under what terms, among Labour and the Conservatives, and most or all of the others (Greens, Liberals, Scottish and Welsh nationalists). If all those parties were on board there would likely be a long-term rejoin majority in parliament whatever the outcome of an election. The EU and its members wouldn't have to worry about the UK bouncing in and out again.
Such a cross-party consensus isn't unfeasible, it has existed concerning NATO for decades.
Re: General Election '24
So Corbyn has decided to run as an independent in Islington: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c288xxvrdz7o
Of course he has. His ego wouldn't allow him not to. What will be funny is how this screws over his supporters in the party and outside it. They'll either need to risk expulsion from the party for supporting him, or risk the ire of their own supporters online if they choose not to. Either way, it's very very funny.
Of course he has. His ego wouldn't allow him not to. What will be funny is how this screws over his supporters in the party and outside it. They'll either need to risk expulsion from the party for supporting him, or risk the ire of their own supporters online if they choose not to. Either way, it's very very funny.
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Re: General Election '24
On the other hand, (assuming it's still true) a sitting MP who get defeated gets a larger MP's pension than if they don't stand at all. Could be just enhancing his pension.
WOULD CUSTOMERS PLEASE REFRAIN FROM SITTING ON THE COUNTER BY THE BACON SLICER - AS WE'RE GETTING A LITTLE BEHIND IN OUR ORDERS.
Re: General Election '24
Little bit from column A, little bit from column B.
Though I do thing there's a big ego element to it. His ego is huge.
- El Pollo Diablo
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Re: General Election '24
Two new polls today, from Techne and WeThink. Both show a tory drop and a Labour rise, putting the new 14-day average tory support at 22.6%. Just half a point to go for it to be their lowest in this parliament, even accounting for Truss.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
Re: General Election '24
I am skeptical about the getting paid more thing if you stand, given the large number of Tories who have decided to go "Nah f.ck that sh.t".
Re: General Election '24
I have just looked at the candidate list (so far) for our shiny new constituency. Unless there's a typo, the Tory and Green candidates appear to have exactly the same name. That's going to confuse some of the more hard of thinking members of the electorate.
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- Dorkwood
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Re: General Election '24
I wonder how many more rats will leave the sinking ship?
The Tories are going to have as bad a time as Reform fielding candidates at this rate (although with Reform, it was mainly through people digging into their initial list's backgrounds and finding they were out and out racists/fascists).
The Tories are going to have as bad a time as Reform fielding candidates at this rate (although with Reform, it was mainly through people digging into their initial list's backgrounds and finding they were out and out racists/fascists).
Re: General Election '24
It’s quite amazing that Gove is not standing. Next we’ll hear that Hunt isn’t standing (I hope).
where once I used to scintillate
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- bob sterman
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Re: General Election '24
Many keen to avoid their own "Portillo-moment" on TV.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 6:35 pmI wonder how many more rats will leave the sinking ship?
Re: General Election '24
All those missed 'Portillo moments' though - but I guess, too many would dilute them.
On the other hand, Sunak OK'd significant levels of dilution during his announcement.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
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Re: General Election '24
For a dream "Portillo-moment"
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ is giving me Jacob Rees-Mogg on current polling numbers
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_e_biggrin.gif)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ is giving me Jacob Rees-Mogg on current polling numbers
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_e_biggrin.gif)
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_e_biggrin.gif)
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_e_biggrin.gif)
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_e_biggrin.gif)
Re: General Election '24
Oh no, how will parliament cope without the talents of Andrea Leadsom? (Rhetorical)
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
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Re: General Election '24
Hell's teeth, I hope that site's predictions are accurate, they've got Labout overturning a 14% lead to boot out the Tories where I live!bob sterman wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 8:50 pmFor a dream "Portillo-moment"
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ is giving me Jacob Rees-Mogg on current polling numbers![]()
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Re: General Election '24
And now Rish! is taking a day off from campaigning after a gruelling 3 days.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
Re: General Election '24
Hunt has said that he's standing, although the changes to the electorate boundaries means that he's probably more secure than before.
He is currently the MP for Surrey South West, which includes Farnham, Godalming and Haslemere. Godalming and Haslemere are pretty secure Tory areas, while Farnham is leaning LibDem with some wards (the council estates) decidedly Labour.
Godalming has been moved to a new electorate where it's joining with the area south of Guildford and will remain a safe Tory seat. Hunt is standing in here. Farnham is joining with Bordon, in East Hampshire, which is also more LibDem/Labour leaning.
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Re: General Election '24
It has Labour still 3rd in my constituency, but only 1-2 points behind the Tories. If we could push the Tories into 3rd that would be a result.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 10:08 pmHell's teeth, I hope that site's predictions are accurate, they've got Labout overturning a 14% lead to boot out the Tories where I live!bob sterman wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 8:50 pmFor a dream "Portillo-moment"
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ is giving me Jacob Rees-Mogg on current polling numbers![]()
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where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
Re: General Election '24
All depends on EPDs tactical voting percentage. Hunt's new constituency has a reasonable Labour component. A 20% switch to LibDem would kick Hunt out.Martin_B wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 10:46 pmHunt has said that he's standing, although the changes to the electorate boundaries means that he's probably more secure than before.
He is currently the MP for Surrey South West, which includes Farnham, Godalming and Haslemere. Godalming and Haslemere are pretty secure Tory areas, while Farnham is leaning LibDem with some wards (the council estates) decidedly Labour.
Godalming has been moved to a new electorate where it's joining with the area south of Guildford and will remain a safe Tory seat. Hunt is standing in here. Farnham is joining with Bordon, in East Hampshire, which is also more LibDem/Labour leaning.
It is prime LibDem territory. They will win Guildford easily (it has previously been a LibDem seat). They'll get Woking. Esher. The south west corridor out of London is for some reason LibDemy, all the way to Winchester.
What looks like prosperous stockbroker Surrey is these days Labour/LibDem. University educated, well-off, remain, socially Liberal, economically Conservative but walloped by mortgage costs.
Re: General Election '24
This election is a write off. If their unsatisfied ambitions want another chance in future it might help to be untainted by humiliating defeat this time.bob sterman wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 8:40 pmMany keen to avoid their own "Portillo-moment" on TV.FlammableFlower wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 6:35 pmI wonder how many more rats will leave the sinking ship?
Re: General Election '24
Rishi's day off to reset is interesting.
No idea what they might try. I've got nothing. All options are bad.
1. Keep on with Sunak presidential touring, a one man band. Trouble is he's terrible at it. And it gets boring. This isn't America, with a big entertaining show.
2. Cabinet ministers doing the usual rounds. But they're all hopeless. Because they change jobs every 6 months few people know who the education minister is or the Home Office or any of the cast. Cameron is a big name but has checked out already. Will be interesting to see if Hunt goes national for the party or stays home to save his own seat. Mordaunt is known but she tends to keep her head down.
3. Unleash the fascist wing. Let Badenoch and Co bash immigrants and wokies. But culture war hasn't been working for them, why would it suddenly start now? Reform wants an election fought on that battlefield. It is unusual for any election to stray too far from NHS, education and the economy - but this year if it does it'll be on sewage.
4. "Labour is an uncertain risk, stick with what you know". Just doesn't play, because Tory infighting means nobody expects stable government. Hunt could stand up to say trust me with the economy - but Reeves will point out he'll be fired in 6 months. Change is more stable than continuity.
5. Dirty tricks. Too late in the day. Crooks and liars can't plausibly throw mud.
Anyone got any ideas I can pass on to Tory HQ?
No idea what they might try. I've got nothing. All options are bad.
1. Keep on with Sunak presidential touring, a one man band. Trouble is he's terrible at it. And it gets boring. This isn't America, with a big entertaining show.
2. Cabinet ministers doing the usual rounds. But they're all hopeless. Because they change jobs every 6 months few people know who the education minister is or the Home Office or any of the cast. Cameron is a big name but has checked out already. Will be interesting to see if Hunt goes national for the party or stays home to save his own seat. Mordaunt is known but she tends to keep her head down.
3. Unleash the fascist wing. Let Badenoch and Co bash immigrants and wokies. But culture war hasn't been working for them, why would it suddenly start now? Reform wants an election fought on that battlefield. It is unusual for any election to stray too far from NHS, education and the economy - but this year if it does it'll be on sewage.
4. "Labour is an uncertain risk, stick with what you know". Just doesn't play, because Tory infighting means nobody expects stable government. Hunt could stand up to say trust me with the economy - but Reeves will point out he'll be fired in 6 months. Change is more stable than continuity.
5. Dirty tricks. Too late in the day. Crooks and liars can't plausibly throw mud.
Anyone got any ideas I can pass on to Tory HQ?
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Re: General Election '24
Plant some drugs on starmer, that's it.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued