US politics - support for Republicans and racial realignment

[noggins]

The major factor seems to be people not turning up to vote. Trumps numbers were down over a million as compared to 2020, but Harris's were down over 12 million. So more a swing from Democrats to not voting as opposed to from Democrats to Republican.

I thought that. But it all boils down to a few thousand votes in a handful of states.


.....2024...............2020

Wisconsin
D... 1,668,757...... 1,630,866
R... 1,697,237...... 1,610,184

Michigan
D... 2,715,809...... 2,804,040
R... 2,800,060...... 2,649,852

Penn
D... 3,341,432...... 3,459,923
R... 3,475,740...... 3,378,263

Georgia
D... 2,540,269...... 2,473,633
R... 2,657,253...... 2,461,854

[Woodchopper]

The best source on who voted for whom is the exit polls produced at each election. They've got a huge sample and no concerns about how likely an interviewee is to vote. Of course there are issues, but there are with any other source as well.

Here's a summary from the last few elections, probably best to ignore small changes which could just be due to noise.

Exit polling.jpg

Overall, white voters have been pretty consistent.

Hispanic and Asian voters have become much more positive to Republicans. Black voters have also become more likely to vote Republican as well, but to a much lesser degree. Its possible that the 2012 may have been a high point given that Obama was the candidate.

If you're looking for an explanation, in many ways the voters who are persons of colour share similar demographics with core white Republican voters. People aren't defined by the colour of their skin. Many persons of colour are deeply religious and may vote for the party which is opposed to abortion. Others hold traditional views and may assume that the Republicans are the party which is more likely to support marriage. Others may run small businesses and vote for the party which is associated with low taxes and a dislike of regulation. These are just three examples, there will be many other.

Sources

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e ... exit-polls
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/e ... al-results
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/r ... exit-polls
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2012

The major problem with exit polls is that they don't capture the absentee vote by mail/drop box in anything like that same way as in person voters, and may have trouble with early votes. Which is the entire of the electorate in some states, the majority in some swing states, and a small number in others.

Yes, of course. It’s still the best source we have.

We can also see similar trends by looking counties where a majority is an ethnic minority at a national level.

In Hispanic majority counties support for Trump is up 13.3 percentage points compared to 2020, while in black majority counties support for Trump is up a much more modest 2.7 points. In Native American majority counties support for Trump was up by 10 points.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ticleShare

[Woodchopper]

Random thought.

We’ve been making analogies with European populists. But there are of course many other examples in the Americas. Milei in Argentina is the most high profile current example, and a few years back there was Bolsonaro in Brazil or Calderón in Mexico. Juan Perón wrote much of the script that others followed.

Posting this here as if we are looking to explain the level of support for Trump among Latinos then perhaps the kind of people who would have voted for a Latin American populist might also vote for the US equivalent after they emigrated.

[Woodchopper]

The latest episode of the Ezra Klein Show podcast features an interview with Patrick Ruffini, the author of the book 'Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP.' The podcast was recorded after the election and features lots of discussion on why persons of colour are increasingly voting Republican.

[Woodchopper]

John Burn Murdoch has produced some pretty graph which illustrate some of the points made earlier.

To be clear: the main reason the Democrats lost the US election is that inflation kills political incumbents. But that doesn’t mean there are not other lessons in the results.

GcZ4vwcW4AAOMOB Graph 1.jpeg (36.87 KiB) Viewed 1351 times

Some counter that this is simply what progressive politics is, but the evidence suggests otherwise. America’s decades-long progress towards racial and sexual tolerance and equality has been a gradual shift, led by progressives with the centre and right quickly following.

The pivots of the past decade, by contrast, have been abrupt and are leaving the majority behind. They are better characterised not as moves towards greater tolerance and equality but as shifts in rhetoric or proposed solutions for addressing disparities, where there is plenty of room for disagreement without bigotry.

Many of these pivots originated with the activists and non-profit staffers that surround the Democratic party. In an invaluable piece of research carried out in 2021, political scientists Alexander Furnas and Timothy LaPira at the think-tank Data for Progress found that these “political elites” or tastemakers hold views often well to the left of the average voter — and even the average Democratic voter — on cultural issues.

GcZ5E6PWEAAQdWz Graph 2.jpeg (34.42 KiB) Viewed 1351 times

This can create situations where policies and rhetoric alienate the very groups they’re aimed at. While 73 per cent of white progressive Democrats favour cutting the size and scope of police forces, only 37 per cent of Black Americans agree. A new study by Amanda Sahar d’Urso and Marcel Roman, at Georgetown and Harvard universities respectively, found that the use of the gender-neutral term “Latinx” used by some progressives was not only deeply unpopular with many Hispanic Americans but may have actively pushed some towards Trump.

[...]

Survey data shows that in every election from 1948 to 2012, American voters’ image of the Democrats was as the party that stood up for the working class and the poor. In 2016 that flipped. Now it is seen primarily as the party of minority advocacy.

[...]

This evolution has reduced the salience of class and economic solidarity — a domain in which Furnas and LaPira find Democratic elites more in tune with the public than their Republican counterparts — and elevated sociocultural issues, where the GOP is on firmer ground.

As predicted, this resulted in racial realignment on November 5, with Hispanic and Black conservatives voting increasingly in line with their social values rather than their economic priorities.

Whether or not progressives are ready to accept it, the evidence all points in one direction. America’s moderate voters have not deserted the Democrats; the party has pushed them away.

Graph 4.jpg (139.76 KiB) Viewed 1351 times

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/73a1836d-0fa ... 4e2ca3a227

[Woodchopper]

We can also see similar trends by looking counties where a majority is an ethnic minority at a national level.

In Hispanic majority counties support for Trump is up 13.3 percentage points compared to 2020, while in black majority counties support for Trump is up a much more modest 2.7 points. In Native American majority counties support for Trump was up by 10 points.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ticleShare

Lengthy map based NY Times analysis of county level data in: Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Miami, Milwaukee, New York City, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Francisco

Harris didn't improve much over Biden, but where she did it was in counties with a majority white electorate. These gains were offset by improvements swings away from the Democrats which mainly occurred in counties where there is a majority of Latino voters, and in San Francisco and Philadelphia counties with majority Black or Asian electorates, respectively (in addition to Latino majority counties).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... -maps.html

[headshot]

We can also see similar trends by looking counties where a majority is an ethnic minority at a national level.

In Hispanic majority counties support for Trump is up 13.3 percentage points compared to 2020, while in black majority counties support for Trump is up a much more modest 2.7 points. In Native American majority counties support for Trump was up by 10 points.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ticleShare

Lengthy map based NY Times analysis of county level data in: Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Miami, Milwaukee, New York City, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Francisco

Harris didn't improve much over Biden, but where she did it was in counties with a majority white electorate. These gains were offset by improvements swings away from the Democrats which mainly occurred in counties where there is a majority of Latino voters, and in San Francisco and Philadelphia counties with majority Black or Asian electorates, respectively (in addition to Latino majority counties).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... -maps.html

I hope those people enjoy seeing their friends and family being deported. Who knows, they may even be forced join them...

Absolutely mad.

[Woodchopper]

We can also see similar trends by looking counties where a majority is an ethnic minority at a national level.

In Hispanic majority counties support for Trump is up 13.3 percentage points compared to 2020, while in black majority counties support for Trump is up a much more modest 2.7 points. In Native American majority counties support for Trump was up by 10 points.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ticleShare

Lengthy map based NY Times analysis of county level data in: Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Miami, Milwaukee, New York City, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Francisco

Harris didn't improve much over Biden, but where she did it was in counties with a majority white electorate. These gains were offset by improvements swings away from the Democrats which mainly occurred in counties where there is a majority of Latino voters, and in San Francisco and Philadelphia counties with majority Black or Asian electorates, respectively (in addition to Latino majority counties).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... -maps.html

I hope those people enjoy seeing their friends and family being deported. Who knows, they may even be forced join them...

Absolutely mad.

Its unlikely to be their friends and family who are deported.

Firstly, 'Latino' is a convenient label which covers very diverse people who really don't have much in common. People whose ancestors come from, for example, Mexico, Puerto Rico or Cuba have very different backgrounds, identities, interests and loyalties.

Secondly, I can't remember if I posted it, but as far as I remember in surveys Latino Americans expressed similar levels of resentment toward illegal immigration as the white population. They're not seen as kith and kin.

Sorry to be rude but what you expressed is a good example of the kind of attitude that is deeply resented and loses elections:

Brown people, they're all the same, and I understand their interests better then they do.

[Grumble]

Plenty of right wing governments in Latin America, quite far right in many cases. Absolutely no reason for Latin American immigrants to the USA to default to left wing.

[headshot]

Ok, fair enough calling me out on the generalisation, but I’ve seen videos and articles interviewing non-documented Latinos who encouraged their documented friends and family to vote for Trump because they thought he’d be better on the economy.

There will be Latino Trump voters whose friends and family are at risk from deportation.

Also, do they think their specific Latino ancestry will matter to a Govt hell bent on kicking anyone out they don’t like?

[shpalman]

I'm sure they won't deport the "wrong people" this time.

I was trying to find that "he's hurting the wrong people" quote but it was probably actually "he's not hurting the people he needs to be hurting" and relates to the government shutdown of 2019. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... er-florida

[discovolante]

And I wonder how many men who voted for Trump have wives, sisters or daughters?

[shpalman]

And I wonder how many men who voted for Trump have wives, sisters or daughters?

And they all have mothers. But I started a new thread to discuss why young men in general have gone more right-wing.