Getting Brexit done

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sTeamTraen
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:48 pm

Does anyone have a link to a good explanation of the issues around fishing?

I have no clue what it means to say that "British fishermen sold their quota to the Dutch 20 years ago" (or whatever). It seems to me that fishing rights are either a commercial thing that can be traded freely, or they aren't. If a Dutch company owns the right to some square mile just off Lowestoft, because a UK boat sold their corner of the sea, then I don't see how Brexit would affect that. But I don't know if that is what really happened.

All I see is one lot saying "We want to take back control of our waters" and others saying "We can't, we sold them all". But clearly there is something non-trivial to negotiate about, because the EU and UK have been negotiating about it. Where do the sovereignty issues end and the contract laws between businesses begin? Help!
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snoozeofreason
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by snoozeofreason » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:26 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:48 pm
Does anyone have a link to a good explanation of the issues around fishing?

I have no clue what it means to say that "British fishermen sold their quota to the Dutch 20 years ago" (or whatever). It seems to me that fishing rights are either a commercial thing that can be traded freely, or they aren't. If a Dutch company owns the right to some square mile just off Lowestoft, because a UK boat sold their corner of the sea, then I don't see how Brexit would affect that. But I don't know if that is what really happened.

All I see is one lot saying "We want to take back control of our waters" and others saying "We can't, we sold them all". But clearly there is something non-trivial to negotiate about, because the EU and UK have been negotiating about it. Where do the sovereignty issues end and the contract laws between businesses begin? Help!
There's this, if it helps https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52420116
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?

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TimW
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by TimW » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:31 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:48 pm
All I see is one lot saying "We want to take back control of our waters" and others saying "We can't, we sold them all".
Somewhere along the line I have gleaned that although "our waters" traditionally extended 12 miles from the coast, in recent decades - while we were in the EU - 200 miles has become the new standard. So "take back control" might not be the best way of describing what "we" are looking to do. Down South there aren't 200 miles worth of water to argue about, but around Scotland potentially "we" (i.e. UK, not just Scotland, as it stands) can take control of areas of sea that have *always* been fished by various nearby nations, and now we're looking to kick them out for the first time.

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Brightonian
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Brightonian » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:54 pm

A resident of a former parish reports that sea fishing is just 0.04% of the economy:
https://twitter.com/BarumDean/status/13 ... 86368?s=19

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sTeamTraen
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:32 pm

snoozeofreason wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:26 pm
There's this, if it helps https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52420116
Great, thanks. That sorts a lot of things out (and I now know what the unsorted things are!).
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bjn
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by bjn » Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:17 am

Brightonian wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:54 pm
A resident of a former parish reports that sea fishing is just 0.04% of the economy:
https://twitter.com/BarumDean/status/13 ... 86368?s=19
So whiny little brexiters don’t like it that someone sold their fishing license to a non British company. They now want the UK government to confiscate that property and/or significantly change the conditions attached to owning that property.

f.ck ‘em.

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veravista
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by veravista » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:47 am

Yep, how else are they going to keep all those African and Chinese deck hands working (see Fishtown, BBC2 early evenings)

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:04 am

Sciolus wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:31 pm
There's the possibility that he's doing what he did a year ago: bullshitting that he's negotiating exactly what he wants, caving in to the EU's demands at the last moment, and then lying that it was the EU that blinked. But there really doesn't seem to be time for that now.
The big difference between now and last year is that in 2019 the UK and EU agreed multiple extensions to the deadline. Back then getting an extension was a relatively simple procedure- request by the UK and a vote in the EU Council.

This round Johnson could have asked for an extension earlier in summer 2020. He ruled that out so there is no straightforward way to get the deadline shifted. It might still be possible but then there would need to be enough goodwill and time. Both of which are lacking.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:08 am

plodder wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:34 pm
He’s basically demanding the EU look at loads of things they’ve already said they’re prepared to look at. Bluster. We’ll get a sort of micro deal.
Perhaps, there might be an attempt to decouple the elements already agreed. We can wait and see when or if they start to negotiate doing that.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:22 am

I checked the dates for 2019.

Johnson and Varadkar made a political agreement on 10 October.

The Withdrawal Agreement bill was passed by the UK Parliament on 22 January, by the European Parliament on 29 January, and by the European Council on 30 January. Britain left on 31 January 2020.

That was in legislative terms a white knuckle ride and it took 16 weeks.

The transition period ends on 31 December. There are ten and a half weeks left and parliaments etc are due to be in recess over Christmas.

A deal would still be possible if there was a political agreement. But we’re lacking one of those.

There is still time but it’s rapidly slipping away. Conventional wisdom seems to be 2-4 weeks.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by headshot » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:39 am

Just in time for a Biden win and a “this changes everything” announcement to save face.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:28 am

headshot wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:39 am
Just in time for a Biden win and a “this changes everything” announcement to save face.
I think 3 November is getting rather late for a political agreement. Even after Johnson and von det Leyen were to agree on something in principle there would still be a huge number of details to negotiate. Could be done if the UK just agrees to whatever the EU wants, like last time.

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bjn
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by bjn » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:42 am

bjn wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:17 am
Brightonian wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:54 pm
A resident of a former parish reports that sea fishing is just 0.04% of the economy:
https://twitter.com/BarumDean/status/13 ... 86368?s=19
So whiny little brexiters don’t like it that someone sold their fishing license to a non British company. They now want the UK government to confiscate that property and/or significantly change the conditions attached to owning that property.

f.ck ‘em.
Dumb question. Could the U.K. government have imposed more conditions on U.K. fishing license while in the EU? There are currently conditions attached about landing some proportion of the catch in the U.K. or having some proportion of U.K. resident crew. If so, then the whole fishing thing is a complete and utter red herring that is down purely to the U.K. government.

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headshot
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by headshot » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:33 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:28 am
headshot wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:39 am
Just in time for a Biden win and a “this changes everything” announcement to save face.
I think 3 November is getting rather late for a political agreement. Even after Johnson and von det Leyen were to agree on something in principle there would still be a huge number of details to negotiate. Could be done if the UK just agrees to whatever the EU wants, like last time.
I’m talking about giving Johnson a reason to delay, or ask for an extension.

The GFA alone means that he can’t make a No Deal work as well as an American trade deal.

He’s going for the strongman look, knowing he has an opportunity to call things off and claim political capital because the landscape has changed with Biden in power. He can save face and still say he tried to Get Brexit Done, but was prevented by world events.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by dyqik » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:18 pm

bjn wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:42 am

If so, then the whole fishing thing is a complete and utter red herring that is down purely to the U.K. government.
This is a reliable prior on everything to do with Brexit.

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by plodder » Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:06 am

headshot wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:33 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:28 am
headshot wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:39 am
Just in time for a Biden win and a “this changes everything” announcement to save face.
I think 3 November is getting rather late for a political agreement. Even after Johnson and von det Leyen were to agree on something in principle there would still be a huge number of details to negotiate. Could be done if the UK just agrees to whatever the EU wants, like last time.
I’m talking about giving Johnson a reason to delay, or ask for an extension.

The GFA alone means that he can’t make a No Deal work as well as an American trade deal.

He’s going for the strongman look, knowing he has an opportunity to call things off and claim political capital because the landscape has changed with Biden in power. He can save face and still say he tried to Get Brexit Done, but was prevented by world events.
Literally the only people supporting Johnson at the moment are people who don’t follow the news and journalists who don’t write the news. He doesn’t need sophisticated tactics to deal with these guys, he just needs a couple of wins he can shout about. They’ll just print money and deregulate like crazy.

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Martin Y
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Martin Y » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:53 pm

Glanced at that URL and thought Gove-is-a-what-now?

PS Hi, first-poster.

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sTeamTraen
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:48 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:53 pm
Glanced at that URL and thought Gove-is-a-what-now?

PS Hi, first-poster.
??
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discovolante
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by discovolante » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:51 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:48 pm
Martin Y wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:53 pm
Glanced at that URL and thought Gove-is-a-what-now?

PS Hi, first-poster.
??
A post got removed due to potentially being spam.
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

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Martin Y
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Martin Y » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:52 pm

On reflection I may have replied to a message that was adjudged to be spam.

Ah. It seems so.

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discovolante
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by discovolante » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:59 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:52 pm
On reflection I may have replied to a message that was adjudged to be spam.

Ah. It seems so.
Well, if it wasn't, hopefully we will find out!
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:49 pm

Frost and Barnier have spoken on the phone.

Gove now talking tough in the Commons, reiterates that there will need to be a fundamental change from the EU and that the UK will prepare to trade on WTO terms.

But the door remains ajar.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:51 pm

He doesn’t want “no deal” and he doesn’t want this deal. Since these are the only options available he has to choose between not having his cake or not eating it either.
https://twitter.com/Brendandonn/status/ ... 44674?s=20

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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Little waster » Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:59 pm

If you cast your mind way back to ancient prehistory, you know like last Friday, you might vaguely recall a lot of excitement about some sort of Australia-style deal.

The biggest difference between an Australia-style deal and crashing out with a catastrophic No Deal is probably the spelling. However a couple of the rough edges of this can be be knocked off with a series of microdeals over areas of mutual benefit which don't real impact on the major issues of trade and sovereignty, things such as aviation and policing, you know common sense obvious stuff.

Anyway Gove has just dropped his trousers and squeezed a Cummings out on one of those microdeals, because well of course he would. May wasn't impressed.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... xit-claims
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Woodchopper
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Re: Getting Brexit done

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:07 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:49 pm
Frost and Barnier have spoken on the phone.

Gove now talking tough in the Commons, reiterates that there will need to be a fundamental change from the EU and that the UK will prepare to trade on WTO terms.

But the door remains ajar.

Give on areas of disagreement:
we cannot accept proposals that would require us to: Provide full permanent access to our fishing waters with quotas substantially unchanged to those imposed by EU membership; Operate a state aid system essentially the same as the EU’s, with great discretion given to the EU to retaliate against us if it thought we were deviating from it; And more broadly, stay in step with laws proposed and adopted by the EU across areas of critical national importance.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/ ... -committee

Some wiggle room in the vague terms: ‘substantially unchanged’, ‘essentially the same’, ‘ stay in step’.

But still, it looks like Gove expects tariff free access to the single market along with weak or nonexistent level playing field rules regarding state aid and regulations on things like environmental protection. Which I doubt will happen.

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