Where is politics going?

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lpm
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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by lpm » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:56 am

noggins wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:19 am
& bojo is lazy
Yes, which is why I don't get it. It's a huge amount of hard work to get the NHS running properly, very difficult to articulate your improvements, and then an election campaign scrap with Starmer about health policy during an election campaign.

While it's so easy to do the big gestures with taxpayer money, doesn't need him to do more than 30 seconds work. Then nothing to do in the election campaign because whenever Starmer raises the failure to protect the NHS, the electorate say "Are you mad? Boris loves the NHS. He gave the nurses a pay rise."
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by plodder » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:40 am

One plausible explanation is that, given the state of the cabinet, everything's a f.cking shambles. Throw in the uncertainties about what the future will bring from Brexit, other trade deals etc the shambles becomes a complete inability to plan. Bung in Covid and the complete inability to plan becomes a complete inability to manage. Not so easy to strategize, that.

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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by plodder » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:08 am

On a broader trend, libertarians have become so mainstream that simple comments like this one are full of free-market bros in the comments explaining how things couldn't possibly be any different:

https://twitter.com/AngharadWatson/stat ... 5690202113

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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by noggins » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:58 am

- Bojo has an 80 seat majority.

- He would have to expend effort and political capital.

- He has no actual Idea he wants to Achieve , apart from general adoration and some shags


Why not keep it up his sleeve until its really needed ?

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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by dyqik » Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:09 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:48 am
I worry when I can't figure out an opponent's strategy.
To figure out the strategy, first you need to identify what the strategy is trying to achieve.

With Trump, the narcissism and risk of bankruptcy, prosecution and Russian oligarchs largely explains why he wanted political power and wanted to keep it once he got it. The detailed things he did in office were largely dictated by others and his personal culture war/racism/bigotry.

With Boris, the only real political aims I can identify are "become Prime Minister because it's owed to me". He doesn't seem to really deeply believe in much, and he doesn't have Trump's risk of failure, prosecution or assassination on leaving office.

Crucially, the political powerbase around him also doesn't believe in a whole lot except low taxes, cushy government contracts, and getting out of the EU. It doesn't have the GOP's overwhelming rabid desire to destroy the central government for anything except keeping Christian white people on top (possibly because the Tories just assume that that's the natural order of things and they don't have to do anything to maintain it except feed the right wing press a bit - the GOP are right wing radicals rebelling against the system, while the Tories are Tories in every sense).

As such, the reason I don't think you can identify a strategy is that he doesn't really have any deeply held personal aims left to tick off, and doesn't care enough to work hard to stay in power at all costs. So that there isn't an strong strategy at all.

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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by dyqik » Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:09 am

noggins wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:58 am
- Bojo has an 80 seat majority.

- He would have to expend effort and political capital.

- He has no actual Idea he wants to Achieve , apart from general adoration and some shags


Why not keep it up his sleeve until its really needed ?
I was typing my longer post when this was posted.

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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by dyqik » Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:17 am

dyqik wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:09 am
lpm wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:48 am
I worry when I can't figure out an opponent's strategy.
To figure out the strategy, first you need to identify what the strategy is trying to achieve.

With Trump, the narcissism and risk of bankruptcy, prosecution and Russian oligarchs largely explains why he wanted political power and wanted to keep it once he got it. The detailed things he did in office were largely dictated by others and his personal culture war/racism/bigotry.

With Boris, the only real political aims I can identify are "become Prime Minister because it's owed to me". He doesn't seem to really deeply believe in much, and he doesn't have Trump's risk of failure, prosecution or assassination on leaving office.

Crucially, the political powerbase around him also doesn't believe in a whole lot except low taxes, cushy government contracts, and getting out of the EU. It doesn't have the GOP's overwhelming rabid desire to destroy the central government for anything except keeping Christian white people on top (possibly because the Tories just assume that that's the natural order of things and they don't have to do anything to maintain it except feed the right wing press a bit - the GOP are right wing radicals rebelling against the system, while the Tories are Tories in every sense).

As such, the reason I don't think you can identify a strategy is that he doesn't really have any deeply held personal aims left to tick off, and doesn't care enough to work hard to stay in power at all costs. So that there isn't an strong strategy at all.
I suspect that the tl;dr version of part of this is that the difference between BoJo/Tories and Trump/GOP is that the Tories are CofE and the GOP are evangelicals.

ETA: The other difference is that the GOP went decades without trifecta power in DC, while the Tories have never really been out of power for very long.

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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by Fishnut » Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:04 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:09 am
Crucially, the political powerbase around him also doesn't believe in a whole lot except low taxes, cushy government contracts, and getting out of the EU.
I have to disagree with this. I think that's what they want us to think but if you look at the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill, the Nationality and Borders Bill, the voter ID legislation, and now the potential changes to the Official Secrets act we have a government that is pushing through an incredibly authoritarian and anti-democratic programme without any real opposition or proper scrutiny. I really think that the Right is far more clever than the Left gives it credit for. They let the self-important amoral ones take the stage and behind the scenes there's a lot of very smart people with a lot of long-term goals and clear, detailed strategies to achieve them. They want us to underestimate them and we do, every time.
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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by dyqik » Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:10 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:04 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:09 am
Crucially, the political powerbase around him also doesn't believe in a whole lot except low taxes, cushy government contracts, and getting out of the EU.
I have to disagree with this. I think that's what they want us to think but if you look at the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill, the Nationality and Borders Bill, the voter ID legislation, and now the potential changes to the Official Secrets act we have a government that is pushing through an incredibly authoritarian and anti-democratic programme without any real opposition or proper scrutiny. I really think that the Right is far more clever than the Left gives it credit for. They let the self-important amoral ones take the stage and behind the scenes there's a lot of very smart people with a lot of long-term goals and clear, detailed strategies to achieve them. They want us to underestimate them and we do, every time.
Yes, this is definitely happening, but I'm not sure if that's directly from Boris and his base that are driving the headline political strategy, or if that's opportunism from a somewhat separate wing of the Tory party/civil service/establishment.

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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by discovolante » Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:18 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:04 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:09 am
Crucially, the political powerbase around him also doesn't believe in a whole lot except low taxes, cushy government contracts, and getting out of the EU.
I have to disagree with this. I think that's what they want us to think but if you look at the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill, the Nationality and Borders Bill, the voter ID legislation, and now the potential changes to the Official Secrets act we have a government that is pushing through an incredibly authoritarian and anti-democratic programme without any real opposition or proper scrutiny. I really think that the Right is far more clever than the Left gives it credit for. They let the self-important amoral ones take the stage and behind the scenes there's a lot of very smart people with a lot of long-term goals and clear, detailed strategies to achieve them. They want us to underestimate them and we do, every time.
Nearly all of those are from the Home Office. Priti Patel is ideological and dangerous and she's being left to it. How much of the rest of the cabinet is actively behind her rather than just happy to let her get on with it I don't know. That said I'm not sure i disagree that Johnson has an authoritarian streak when it comes to things that could lead to him being held to account.
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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by cvb » Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:21 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:10 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:04 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:09 am
Crucially, the political powerbase around him also doesn't believe in a whole lot except low taxes, cushy government contracts, and getting out of the EU.
I have to disagree with this. I think that's what they want us to think but if you look at the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill, the Nationality and Borders Bill, the voter ID legislation, and now the potential changes to the Official Secrets act we have a government that is pushing through an incredibly authoritarian and anti-democratic programme without any real opposition or proper scrutiny. I really think that the Right is far more clever than the Left gives it credit for. They let the self-important amoral ones take the stage and behind the scenes there's a lot of very smart people with a lot of long-term goals and clear, detailed strategies to achieve them. They want us to underestimate them and we do, every time.
Yes, this is definitely happening, but I'm not sure if that's directly from Boris and his base that are driving the headline political strategy, or if that's opportunism from a somewhat separate wing of the Tory party/civil service/establishment.
I do not think it is coming from Boris, as he does not give a toss, but it is moving quite scarily into proto right wing dictatorship. I do think he would like to be dear leader for life if he could monetise it enough.

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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by lpm » Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:45 pm

Being dear leader for life would have been possible for a Boris-type character, given FPTP, England's right wing nature and the struggles of Labour.

Wave the flag, blame the immigrants, stoke up tensions - but also do grand gestures. Spend taxpayer money on bribes for your coalition of voters.

It's amazing that Mussolini is still associated with making the trains run on time. A hundred years later. He didn't even need to make the trains run on time. He just did the bare minimum, blatantly lied that trains run on time and repeated it endlessly. Simple gaslighting. The fictional story became more deeply seated than unpleasant realities.

The character of "Boris" is also fictional, endlessly repeated until it's believed and unpleasant realities are crowded out. "Got Brexit done" is believed by casual voters in the same way that "trains run on time" was believed. Obviously Johnson is odds-on to win the next election due to the popularity of "Boris" in England but he could be absolutely miles ahead. He's popular despite giving nurses only 1%, he could be even more popular because of giving nurses 5%.

I'm glad he's f.cking it up but if Johnson played it right he could be into "so popular you can rig the election and people won't care" territory. Even "so popular you can re-write the constitution" territory, thanks to the compliant Telegraph, BBC and tabloid rags. I mean, he's already successfully deploying the preliminary stages of "use government resources for campaigning" and "make national broadcaster biased towards the govt", the starting points for any wannabe dear leader for life.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by IvanV » Thu Jul 22, 2021 5:20 pm

DAG Judicial Review Bill Published and DAG Trying to explain it points out that all of the illiberal measures proposed in the consultations on Judicial Review reform have been left out in the actual 2-clause bill that has been published. He seems disappointed not to have an illiberal measure to complain about. He wonders if it's a trick. Will they add illiberal amendments? Was it a stalking horse to show what they might do, and so get the judiciary more compliant?

Or maybe the levels of checks and balances are such that there is only so much that they can get away with? Too many bills like that and too many people would hate them.

It does remind me of the consultation they had on bringing in an offence of causing death by dangerous cycling, closely matched on the driving offence, doubtless to appeal to anti-cycling bigots. The criticisms that were published were devastating. A sledgehammer that doesn't even crack the very rare nuts. It was quietly dropped, I assume, since we've never heard a whisper of it since. They never even published a conclusion to the consultation. Maybe the whole point was to appeal to the bigot vote at that time, and sod actually following through, in traditional Johnsonian short attention span fashion.

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Re: Where is politics going?

Post by nekomatic » Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:28 pm

Given that Johnson moves in very different circles to (one imagines) most of us, it’s possible he’s just not as good at reading the room as people give him credit for. Until quite recently ragging on public sector workers of any kind was safe territory for energising the Conservative vote, remember. It’s even what cuddly voice-of-reason Ken Clarke made his name with.

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