Brexit Consequences

[sheldrake]

I have a nice chat about whether her back still hurts / poofs are the problem / I'm not sure about that I know some nice gay people / the illegals are the problem / well, my family comes from another country and we're ok / your dog is playing with my dog / isn't that nice / can I borrow a poo bag / thanks you look after yourself / hope your back feels better soon

now we can also talk about how the remoaners aren't driving enough lorries or whatever batshit route the Brexit lot are taking on their journey to common sense.

There's a touching warmth and generosity of spirit undernearth right there. Well done. I don't think it's actually remoaners or brexiters causing supply problems, mind you. Covid lockdown rules and formerly inadequate pay I reckon. These supply issues are showing up all over the world https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... on-squeeze

That link is from July and it mentions semiconductors not food.

It talks quite generally about supply problems, it isn't limited to semiconductors. Here's another article, from a liberal-leaning source, pointing out shortages in western europe https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... a4cbcd70b3

Here's another article from July talking about supply chain fears in Germany https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ge ... 021-07-26/

[shpalman]

That first link is about possible shortages of actual drivers. Not sure if the second one is really about food either.

There aren't any shortages in Italy and there weren't any in Slovakia in August and I didn't notice any in Germany or Austria when I passed through.

[sheldrake]

That first link is about possible shortages of actual drivers. Not sure if the second one is really about food either.

There aren't any shortages in Italy and there weren't any in Slovakia in August and I didn't notice any in Germany or Austria when I passed through.

I haven't notice any shortages where I live in the UK, so if I was going to base it off personal anecdotes I'd say the shortages were a myth.

I think what's actually happened is that a circuit of pro-Remain newspapers are obsessively blaming almost any problem on Brexit, even when it's one that we see in other countries. These are the same kinds of newspapers that use headlines like 'a fall in UK exports' when they've actually grown, on the basis that they found a group of economists who believe they can show exports would've been even higher if...

[plodder]

Enough of that drivel. Research suggests that we're currently several thousand HGV drivers down because of Brexit, which make up a good chunk of the shortfall.

Independent research carried out on behalf of Logistics UK, a transport association, by RepGraph estimates that 14,000 EU drivers left the UK in the year up to June 2020, with just 600 returning by the second quarter of 2021.

Referenced here:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/3 ... -in-the-uk

Report here:
https://logistics.org.uk/logisticsreport

[sheldrake]

Enough of that drivel. Research suggests that we're currently several thousand HGV drivers down because of Brexit, which make up a good chunk of the shortfall.

Did you read my links? If you had, you'd see that Poland is also very short and many other causes for the driver shortages. You would also see documented supply chain problems in other western european countries.

[sheldrake]

I went and read the second link. Here is the page about staff recruitmemt's summary

"There is an ongoing, historical problem in the sector with
filling driver vacancies. In order to drive a HGV, drivers
must pass a vocational driving test. HGV drivers employed
or used in commercial capacity also need to acquire
and then maintain a Driver CPC; however, with testing
suspended for a year, supply of licensed drivers has fallen
even further behind demand. Comparing calendar years,
the average pass rate has remained fairly consistent,
averaging at 57.7% from 2015-2019. It is only higher in
2020 because of the very high average pass rate from
April to June, averaging 79.4% and skewing the overall
average higher, when testing rates collapsed.
Compared to 2019, there were 43% less tests conducted
in 2020. 35% of these were conducted in the first quarter
(January to March), when more than 15,000 tests were
carried out, prior to the pandemic. However, during the
first lockdown period of April through June, only 631 tests
took place. By comparison, in 2019, 18,625 tests were
conducted over a similar period. Testing structures were
reinstated from April, but there is now a significant backlog
of drivers seeking tests which will take time to clear,
causing further delays."

The page on staffing, from the report which your journalistic link cites, makes no mention of Brexit. The factors cited here do of course impact in other countries, like the other European countries cited as experiencing driver shortages and supply problems in the links I shared above.

Keep in mind I'm scrupulously avoiding any source that would be considered 'conservative' or 'pro-brexit' here because I don't think anybody would bother reading them or dismiss the content out of hand if I did.

[Gfamily]

I haven't notice any shortages where I live in the UK, so if I was going to base it off personal anecdotes I'd say the shortages were a myth.

Yup!

[lpm]

Lol. Even The Daily Mail has blamed Brexit.

When you've gone loonier than The Daily Mail it's time to tuck yourself into bed and hope you're better in the morning.

[sheldrake]

Lol. Even The Daily Mail has blamed Brexit.

When you've gone loonier than The Daily Mail it's time to tuck yourself into bed and hope you're better in the morning.

The Daily Mail's editor is an outspoken remainer. But even the Daily Mail is running stories about lorry driver shortages in Spain, Germany and France
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... 0-000.html

You can do better than that, LPM. You didn't even attempt to examine real sources.

[Gfamily]

Doesn't really match with your claim that the shortages are a myth.

[sheldrake]

Doesn't really match with your claim that the shortages are a myth.

I didn't make that claim. I said 'I would if I was using personal anecdotes to decide' in response to somebody who'd concluded, based on their personal anecdotes, that there were no shortages in several European countries.

[Gfamily]

Doesn't really match with your claim that the shortages are a myth.

I didn't make that claim. I said 'I would if I was using personal anecdotes to decide' in response to somebody who'd concluded, based on their personal anecdotes, that there were no shortages in several European countries.

Did they just base on personal experience though? Re-read what was reported.

[sheldrake]

Did they just base on personal experience though?

Yes, they did. If they were going to base it on objective data they'd at least paste at least a link to it. What they actually wrote was

There aren't any shortages in Italy and there weren't any in Slovakia in August and I didn't notice any in Germany or Austria when I passed through.

This is a set of unreferenced personal impressions.

[sheldrake]

https://www.eureporter.co/health/food-2 ... ys-draghi/

"COVID-19 crisis has led to food crisis, says Italy's Draghi"

[shpalman]

Links from July aren't really relevant but he wasn't talking about Europe.

[sheldrake]

Links from July aren't really relevant.

Why? Do you think this breakdown in logistics caused by Covid lockdowns materialised all of a sudden in September?

He didn't name any country specifically, but I've given other sources in this thread which *do* quote figures for specific western and central european countries.

[shpalman]

Links from July aren't really relevant.

Why? Do you think this breakdown in logistics caused by Covid lockdowns materialised all of a sudden in September?

What you need is stories about empty supermarket shelves in mainland Europe like there have been recently for the UK. Or was the UK already running low on food in July? I don't remember.

[Bird on a Fire]

I've not seen any reports of empty shelves in Portugal, though I couldn't find any frozen sweetcorn yesterday.

[sheldrake]

Links from July aren't really relevant.

Why? Do you think this breakdown in logistics caused by Covid lockdowns materialised all of a sudden in September?

What you need is stories about empty supermarket shelves in mainland Europe like there have been recently for the UK. Or was the UK already running low on food in July? I don't remember.

These claims have been circulating in the press since the beginning of the year.

Germany had them back in February
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/13 ... -shortages

The International Road Transport Organization has been warning about driver shortages across Europe since 2019 https://www.politico.eu/article/roadblo ... -truckers/

[Gfamily]

I've not seen any reports of empty shelves in Portugal, though I couldn't find any frozen sweetcorn yesterday.

To be honest, while we were in France we were found very little in the way of Samosas, Bhajis, Poppadoms and Naans in the supermarkets to go with our curry; similarly, we were struggling to find the sliced water chestnuts we usually include in our stir-frys.

But seriously, despite being in a relatively low population department, we didn't have a problem with basic food/salad/dairy foodstuffs. And this is relatively commonplace now in UK

[sheldrake]

But seriously, despite being in a relatively low population department, we didn't have a problem with basic food/salad/dairy foodstuffs. And this is relatively commonplace now in UK

It hasn't happened at all to me. I was in a supermarket this evening. I live in medium-sized town in the east midlands. What is your data source?

[Gfamily]

These claims have been circulating in the press since the beginning of the year.
Germany had them back in February
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/13 ... -shortages

The International Road Transport Organization has been warning about driver shortages across Europe since 2019 https://www.politico.eu/article/roadblo ... -truckers/

Yes, I think the search was for actual reports of empty arguments shelves

[sheldrake]

These claims have been circulating in the press since the beginning of the year.
Germany had them back in February
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/13 ... -shortages

The International Road Transport Organization has been warning about driver shortages across Europe since 2019 https://www.politico.eu/article/roadblo ... -truckers/

Yes, I think the search was for actual reports of empty arguments shelves

Which is exactly what the first link is. You're not really engaging in good faith examination of sources presented to you and repeating personal anecdotes. I can't force you to read things, but if you keep not reading them then I won't bother replying to your requests any more.

You opened this discussion with me with the un-referenced argument 'don't be a f.cking idiot!' when referring to shortages in western europe. I've documented logistics problems and shortages extensively so far and you've not acknowledged any of it.

[Gfamily]

if you keep not reading them then I won't bother replying to your requests any more.

You opened this discussion with me with the un-referenced argument 'don't be a f.cking idiot!' when referring to shortages in western europe. I've documented logistics problems and shortages extensively so far and you've not acknowledged any of it.

feel free to not bother replying -

You gave historic posts about "the threat" of driver shortages elsewhere - did they arise?
Others here gave real life posts about "actual" driver shortages in UK - that did arise.

[sheldrake]

if you keep not reading them then I won't bother replying to your requests any more.

You opened this discussion with me with the un-referenced argument 'don't be a f.cking idiot!' when referring to shortages in western europe. I've documented logistics problems and shortages extensively so far and you've not acknowledged any of it.

feel free to not bother replying -

You gave historic posts about "the threat" of driver shortages elsewhere - did they arise?

Yes, read the sources. Poland alone has 120,000 driver vacancies unfilled