Starmer

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Post Reply
sheldrake
Dorkwood
Posts: 1464
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Starmer

Post by sheldrake » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:03 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:22 pm
The gain in 2017 was 2015's UKIP voters wandering around, approx a quarter going back to Labour, a quarter going to Conservative and a half staying with UKIP.

- LAB went up from 36% to 53%, so as you say +17%
- CON went up from 21% to 34%, gaining +13%
- UKIP retained 12% of the vote share

Then in 2019 Brexit Party came to play in Hartlepool instead of UKIP. LAB lost 14.8% but CON also lost 5%. Labour won the seat because of the old CON-UKIP split that for some reason Hartlepool continued in 2019 instead of going for Boris like most of the rest of the red wall.

- In 2019 CON and Brexit Party won a combined 55%
- In the 2021 by-election, CON and Brexit Party won a combined 52%
- CON captured the seat in 2021, because the split moved from 29% CON/26% Brexit Party to 52% CON/0% Brexit Party
Hang on, labour lost 14.8% in 2019. Who do you think they lost them to?

Are you suggesting that when UKIP voters wander into Labour, then wander out to BXP 2 years later, that brexit is not a significant factor?

I find that very hard to believe. Doesn't chime with what any of my vaguely working class midlands or northern relatives thought/think either.

User avatar
lpm
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3696
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Starmer

Post by lpm » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:25 pm

Obviously these are UKIP voters. Who would also have been Leave voters.

UKIP triumphed in 2015, succeeding beyond their dreams in delivering the biggest foreign and trade policy change of our lifetimes. Farage became one of the most successful post-war politicians. As a result of this triumph, in 2017 there was no point to UKIP and Farage. All their voters shifted to no fixed abode. Then in 2019 there was a point to UKIP again, under the slogan Get Brexit Done, and so all these voters came back and voted UKIP again (this time voting for the Boris-branded version).

How is this hard?
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

sheldrake
Dorkwood
Posts: 1464
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Starmer

Post by sheldrake » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:44 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:25 pm
Obviously these are UKIP voters. Who would also have been Leave voters.

UKIP triumphed in 2015, succeeding beyond their dreams in delivering the biggest foreign and trade policy change of our lifetimes. Farage became one of the most successful post-war politicians. As a result of this triumph, in 2017 there was no point to UKIP and Farage. All their voters shifted to no fixed abode. Then in 2019 there was a point to UKIP again, under the slogan Get Brexit Done, and so all these voters came back and voted UKIP again (this time voting for the Boris-branded version).

How is this hard?
How does this disagree with the narrative that being anti-Brexit cost Labour votes? They literally won back Brexit voters, then lost them again as their policy changed.

User avatar
lpm
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3696
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Starmer

Post by lpm » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:56 pm

It was the Conservatives who changed their policy, from May confusion to Boris rebranded UKIP.

Labour didn't change at all, they went from useless incompetence in 2017 to incompetent uselessness in 2019.
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 2058
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Starmer

Post by plodder » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:08 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:56 pm
It was the Conservatives who changed their policy, from May confusion to Boris rebranded UKIP.

Labour didn't change at all, they went from useless incompetence in 2017 to incompetent uselessness in 2019.
Right. The idea that Corbyn nearly beat May is nothing like so compelling as the idea that May only just beat Corbyn.

sheldrake
Dorkwood
Posts: 1464
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Starmer

Post by sheldrake » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:12 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:56 pm
It was the Conservatives who changed their policy, from May confusion to Boris rebranded UKIP.

Labour didn't change at all, they went from useless incompetence in 2017 to incompetent uselessness in 2019.
The conservatives did change. I am prepared to split the difference with you. I still have a weird soft-spot for Jeremy Corbyn. It's the sincerity.

monkey
Catbabel
Posts: 867
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:10 pm

Re: Starmer

Post by monkey » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:44 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:58 am
I'm pleased to hear Starmer is going to set out his vision for Britain at last. Though I'm not going to pay £6 for it, or read 11k words.
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-leade ... y-12414746

Sounds like "Big Society but different" driven by public-private partnerships, but maybe that's just the language being used to try to persuade Tories to vote Labour. Or something.

Looking forward to hearing what his green policy ideas are.
It's free to download - clicky - It's 6 quid for the hard copy.

Only skimmed it so far. It's got some good complaints about the Tories, but it's a bit wooly. Pretty much no policy, but some of that might come in his conference speech. Bear in mind that this one isn't really aimed at your average voter.

As far as green policy goes, there's a few GND motions gone to conference from the CLPs*, who get to do one each. One authored by Labour for a Green New Deal was nearly booted by the Conference Arrangements Committee, this annoyed people but they reversed the decision in the end. The similar ones will be composited by the delegates proposing them before they get voted on. Mostly they are about nationalising the energy sector and investing in green jobs, so you should expect some of that. However, conference policies might not end up in the manifesto, as that is chosen by the Clause V meeting, which can choose not to prioritise, water down, or leave out what was decided at conference. So even if you get excited next week, you still can't be certain about what the policy will be in the end. The clause V meeting will be dominated by Starmer people (the shadow cabinet will be there), but includes everyone on the NEC, so you'll get some some Left wingers and trade unionists too.


*Constituency Labour Party - your local Labour Party.

User avatar
Iron Magpie
Buzzberry
Posts: 39
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:02 pm

Re: Starmer

Post by Iron Magpie » Sun Sep 26, 2021 2:07 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:56 pm
It was the Conservatives who changed their policy, from May confusion to Boris rebranded UKIP.

Labour didn't change at all, they went from useless incompetence in 2017 to incompetent uselessness in 2019.
They went from a policy of trying to do the Brexit thing but on much more friendly terms with Europe in 2017 to the Starmer driven policy of Brexit only after another referendum maybe in 2019.
Plus a further two years of Labour back stabbers such as Campbell, Blair, Hodge, Watson and the rest of the liberal capitalists pretending to be socialists slinging mud at the leader, with the help of a compliant media owned by billionaires.

You seem to be denying reality a bit (lot) here.

Still you will be happy to know that at the next election you will have a choice of Far right Capitalists, right wing capitalists and liberal capitalists. Each making sure that the flow of money upwards toward the already super wealthy continues unabated.

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 2058
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Starmer

Post by plodder » Sun Sep 26, 2021 2:16 pm

haha ace. you’ve forgotten the Corbyn leadership team who did more (and continue to do more) to get ultra capitalists elected than almost anyone.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Princess POW
Posts: 7223
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: Portugal

Re: Starmer

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Sep 26, 2021 2:52 pm

What's needed, I think, is some unity on the left.

The left needs everyone, from student activists (oh noes! not educated young people!) to traditional working class folks to centrist nerds who understand boring things, because it's faced with a struggle so uphill it's practically vertical.

All this Corbyn vs Blair sh.t is boring af.

Corbyn had flaws, was attacked by the media and undermined by Labour politicians to the right of him. Starmer has flaws, is largely ignored by the media, and disliked by a lot of the grassroots. Pick your poison.

If there were a one-year moratorium on internecine pissing matches Labour might have a chance of putting across a consistent, coherent counter-narrative. You know, if they had one.
He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

sheldrake
Dorkwood
Posts: 1464
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Starmer

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 4:00 pm

Needs to start with a hard look at the personal qualities of the front bench, over the ideologies. Many of the post-war Labour giants like Dennis Healey, Harold Wilson, Tony Benn had all either been war heroes or seriously academically accomplished, or both, in addition to having social consciences. There was no sense that their politics was rooted in some angry projection of their own personal failings (e.g. Corbyn).

There was also no sense that their politics was rooted in a dislike of their own society and the ordinary people in it, and that's the vibe that people like Corbyn and the more slick post-Blairite progressives give off to a lot of people.

They came across as accomplished people who cared about their fellow citizens, and the country, and had a positive vision for the future. And they didn't all agree on lots of things, and it was okay.

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 2058
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Starmer

Post by plodder » Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:22 pm

I find it fascinating the different advice people have for Labour as opposed to the Tories, when of course all that matters is the one party needs to be more basically competent in order to win.

sheldrake
Dorkwood
Posts: 1464
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Starmer

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:28 pm

The Tories have a strange built in advantage of not setting themselves up to try and improve the country, but merely to keep it broadly the same whilst tinkering with a few %s here and there in the economy and waving the Union Jack around whenever America would like us to carry the water and bandages when they invade somewhere. That is a much easier sell than an improved 'future Britain', even when it's a really good future. The last time there was a real change of power from the Tories to Labour, things had degenerated so far that Tory MPs were actually brazenly selling parliamentary questions for envelopes full of money, and the Labour leader still had to pretend to be a Tory to win.

Labour needs impeccable people like Oxford professors, war heroes etc.. to get the public trust needed to bring people over the fence into a brighter world. Even somebody like Boris Johnson can sell 'just like now really but I promise not to be ordered about by the EU'.
Last edited by sheldrake on Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 2058
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Starmer

Post by plodder » Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:40 pm

that’s incorrect. The Tories simply have a lazer focus on winning elections and Labour don’t.

sheldrake
Dorkwood
Posts: 1464
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Starmer

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:43 pm

I can see that in the Corbyn era, but would you say that about the Kinnock era and back? We've spent most of our lives under Tory governments, and I don't think it's all down to professionalism and organisation on their part.

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 2058
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Starmer

Post by plodder » Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:46 pm

that’s exactly what it’s down to and it’s also why Tony Blair was so successful. The winners have been the ones who focussed on winning, it’s f.ck all to do with policy.

sheldrake
Dorkwood
Posts: 1464
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Starmer

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:33 pm

You may be right, but it's somehow depressing. I'd still rather vote for my imaginary heroic cabinet of trustworthy conviction politicians.

'Focussing on winning' is mostly about faking belief in the most popular policies in a highly organised way.

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 2058
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Starmer

Post by plodder » Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:50 pm

No it isn't, it's about basic competence.

sheldrake
Dorkwood
Posts: 1464
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Starmer

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:53 pm

plodder wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:50 pm
No it isn't, it's about basic competence.
Competence to do what? During a campaign all anybody has is talk and promises

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 2058
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Starmer

Post by plodder » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:18 pm

run a country you muppet.

sheldrake
Dorkwood
Posts: 1464
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Starmer

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:23 pm

plodder wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:18 pm
run a country you muppet.
Yes, but that comes after you win the election. How do you think it's demonstrated on the campaign trail ?

I've got a sneaking suspicion you're going to say 'competence'.

Tony Blair competently pretended to be a one-nation Tory and competently made sure everybody got pagers which competently told them what to say on particular topics so that they could sound like one-nation tories right before important interviews.

Millennie Al
Dorkwood
Posts: 1020
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:02 am

Re: Starmer

Post by Millennie Al » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:36 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:33 pm
You may be right, but it's somehow depressing. I'd still rather vote for my imaginary heroic cabinet of trustworthy conviction politicians.
Then go do that in an imaginary election in an imaginary country - not here.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

sheldrake
Dorkwood
Posts: 1464
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:48 am

Re: Starmer

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:36 pm

Millennie Al wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:36 pm
sheldrake wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:33 pm
You may be right, but it's somehow depressing. I'd still rather vote for my imaginary heroic cabinet of trustworthy conviction politicians.
Then go do that in an imaginary election in an imaginary country - not here.
Starmer's main coverage today was him gently rebuking one of his female MPs who has been threatened by transgender activists and couldn't come to the conference. He needed to correct her on whether only women can have a cervix, because if he hadn't, then other labour activists might think he was anti-Trans.

This party is so f.cked it's beyond belief.

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 2058
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Starmer

Post by plodder » Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:28 am

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:23 pm
plodder wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:18 pm
run a country you muppet.
Yes, but that comes after you win the election. How do you think it's demonstrated on the campaign trail ?

I've got a sneaking suspicion you're going to say 'competence'.

Tony Blair competently pretended to be a one-nation Tory and competently made sure everybody got pagers which competently told them what to say on particular topics so that they could sound like one-nation tories right before important interviews.
Not really. Tony Blair competently looked like a PM in waiting whilst the derelict incumbents were trousering freebies and shagging around and generally being loathsome (the sword of truth, the shield of justice etc).

Plus Blair’s lot had enthusiasm and ideas. No one normal thinks too hard about policy, they go for a sense of whether they leaders will be better at being in charge. No point in having fine words if they can’t deliver.

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 2058
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Starmer

Post by plodder » Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:55 am

the only people who care about policy who actually matter are the donors and the media barons and the shadowy string-pulling spider people.

Post Reply