US Election 2024

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Who will contest the US Election in 2024?

Dem: Joe Biden
4
11%
Dem: Kamala Harris
13
35%
Dem: Pete Buttigieg
0
No votes
Dem: Some other schmuck
3
8%
Rep: Donald Trump
5
14%
Rep: Donald Trump Jnr
1
3%
Rep: Ted Cruz
2
5%
Rep: Mike Pence
2
5%
Rep: Matt Gaetz
1
3%
Rep: Some other schmuck
6
16%
 
Total votes: 37

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El Pollo Diablo
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US Election 2024

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:19 pm

Might as well start discussing this now - the US election process does take up most of each democratic cycle after all.
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lpm
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Re: US Election 2024

Post by lpm » Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:27 pm

Oh god no delete this thread
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: US Election 2024

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:31 pm

you know you love this sh.t
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Re: US Election 2024

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:37 pm

I for one can't wait for the next fivethirtyeight election calculator
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Re: US Election 2024

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:34 pm

It'll be Harris v Trump.

Too early to say how it'll go.
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Re: US Election 2024

Post by dyqik » Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:44 pm

Harris v Cruz v Trump (running as a 3rd party from jail).

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Re: US Election 2024

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:52 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:44 pm
Harris v Cruz v Trump (running as a 3rd party from jail).
I'm pretty sure he's not going to jail.
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Re: US Election 2024

Post by dyqik » Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:06 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:52 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:44 pm
Harris v Cruz v Trump (running as a 3rd party from jail).
I'm pretty sure he's not going to jail.
OK, exile then.

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Re: US Election 2024

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:10 pm

Lol. For what?

AFAIAA the only thing he's being investigated for is dodgy tax stuff, which as the Pandora papers etc. show is business-as-usual for billionaires - so depressingly unremarkable that we don't even have a thread on it. How many US billionaires have been jailed or exiled for tax stuff lately?

Then bear in mind that the Democrats are going to want to avoid the optics of looking like they're persecuting (a) a recent former president, and (b) a future presidential candidate.

He's going to live out his days in comfort in Mar a Lago, with a possible second stint in the White House.
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Re: US Election 2024

Post by sheldrake » Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:38 pm

I don't think Trump will be back. Cruz will get background help from the more effective Trump strategists and possibly give Ivanka a role in his team as a sign to the die-hard Trump fans that he's 'carrying on the legacy'.

Cruz will drop most of the populist economic nationalism of Trump/Bannon and get the corporate sector back onside. The left will never vote republican anyway. Noisy peacocking about how he's fighting the culture war without any business problems with China for the big donors. That will probably be enough.

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Re: US Election 2024

Post by plodder » Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:27 am


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Re: US Election 2024

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:47 pm

I'm wondering if AOC will make her first run for the Democratic nomination in 2024, or leave it for later.
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Re: US Election 2024

Post by dyqik » Fri Oct 15, 2021 1:04 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:47 pm
I'm wondering if AOC will make her first run for the Democratic nomination in 2024, or leave it for later.
Hopefully later. 2028 will either be against the last vestiges of Trumpism, or against the first reasonable* Republican candidate of the post Trumpism era. A far less divisive candidate would have a better chance in both cases.

Or went happen at all.

*As far as centrist possibly swingy voters are concerned.

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Re: US Election 2024

Post by monkey » Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:19 pm

We've got mid terms to get through first.
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:47 pm
I'm wondering if AOC will make her first run for the Democratic nomination in 2024, or leave it for later.
It will be Biden, unless something happens to him. There will be no serious challenges.

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Re: US Election 2024

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:59 pm

monkey wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:19 pm
We've got mid terms to get through first.
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:47 pm
I'm wondering if AOC will make her first run for the Democratic nomination in 2024, or leave it for later.
It will be Biden, unless something happens to him. There will be no serious challenges.
It's not all about winning, though. Sanders et al successfully changed the debate, and his popularity with under-40s was probably a factor in Biden's last-minute adoption of some climate policies.

Just because the old white men generally have the game sewn up doesn't mean that other voices can't make useful contributions to shaping policy, and there seems to be a pretty significant generation split that AOC et al understand quite well.
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Re: US Election 2024

Post by monkey » Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:13 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:59 pm
monkey wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:19 pm
We've got mid terms to get through first.
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:47 pm
I'm wondering if AOC will make her first run for the Democratic nomination in 2024, or leave it for later.
It will be Biden, unless something happens to him. There will be no serious challenges.
It's not all about winning, though. Sanders et al successfully changed the debate, and his popularity with under-40s was probably a factor in Biden's last-minute adoption of some climate policies.

Just because the old white men generally have the game sewn up doesn't mean that other voices can't make useful contributions to shaping policy, and there seems to be a pretty significant generation split that AOC et al understand quite well.
I agree that it's important that Left and Left leaning voices get heard. It's just I think it's very unlikely that AOC will decide that running against an incumbent president who is already listening to them is a good way to do it.

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Re: US Election 2024

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:16 pm

Good time to do a practice run, I'd say.

With the obvious caveat that I don't know what I'm talking about ;)
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Re: US Election 2024

Post by dyqik » Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:55 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:16 pm
Good time to do a practice run, I'd say.

With the obvious caveat that I don't know what I'm talking about ;)
Realistically, any candidate for President needs some experience of elected executive office. Even Sanders has that, as mayor of Burlington. Trump obviously didn't, and failed at some of the things he tried to do because of that.

Remember, the president is not a legislator, and they do not have the power to change the law, or even to introduce laws (unlike the Prime Minister).

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Re: US Election 2024

Post by monkey » Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:12 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:55 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:16 pm
Good time to do a practice run, I'd say.

With the obvious caveat that I don't know what I'm talking about ;)
Realistically, any candidate for President needs some experience of elected executive office. Even Sanders has that, as mayor of Burlington. Trump obviously didn't, and failed at some of the things he tried to do because of that.

Remember, the president is not a legislator, and they do not have the power to change the law, or even to introduce laws (unlike the Prime Minister).
Here's a list - wiki clicky

Seems from the last 50 years or so, being Veep or State Governor is your best bet. Only one President ever has gone from Representative to President (Garfield). There are a few Senators on the list, the most recent being Obama.

I wonder how much of that is a recognition thing though? AOC has plenty of that - she even has the three letter name. Governors, Senators and Veeps are a lot more prominent positions than Member of Congress.

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Re: US Election 2024

Post by dyqik » Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:16 pm

monkey wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:12 pm
dyqik wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:55 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:16 pm
Good time to do a practice run, I'd say.

With the obvious caveat that I don't know what I'm talking about ;)
Realistically, any candidate for President needs some experience of elected executive office. Even Sanders has that, as mayor of Burlington. Trump obviously didn't, and failed at some of the things he tried to do because of that.

Remember, the president is not a legislator, and they do not have the power to change the law, or even to introduce laws (unlike the Prime Minister).
Here's a list - wiki clicky

Seems from the last 50 years or so, being Veep or State Governor is your best bet. Only one President ever has gone from Representative to President (Garfield). There are a few Senators on the list, the most recent being Obama.

I wonder how much of that is a recognition thing though? AOC has plenty of that - she even has the three letter name. Governors, Senators and Veeps are a lot more prominent positions than Member of Congress.
Yeah, Obama is one with no previous executive position, and Kennedy was the one before that. You could suggest that both had some issues early on where previous executive experience might have been helpful (Bay of Pigs, for example).

Eisenhower's experience doesn't really fit the mold, but he basically did have executive experience, managing Churchill, Roosevelt/Truman and Stalin, as well as multinational military staffs.

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