General Election 2019

[El Pollo Diablo]

Probably the best thing that Labour can do for this election is to tie up McCluskey and leave him in a shipping container for the next two weeks.

[Little waster]

Probably the best thing that Labour can do for this election is to tie up McCluskey and leave him in a shipping container for the next two weeks.

FTFY

[El Pollo Diablo]

Another prediction, this time with the latest Scottish poll included.

Basically, Labour can see a 6-point lead of the Tories over them, and still find a way into power, just, if only to sort out a referendum.

[GeenDienst]

...still find a way into power, just, if only to sort out a referendum.

As stated, if you believe they will.

[dyqik]

Joke already done.

Some actual content:

Tactical voting works because it shifts the seat counts away from the seat counts that the national polling suggests. I don't think you can easily put that into the prediction sites? I see there's a way with that particular site - some arbitrary but reasonable numbers with Right wing voters unlikely to vote tactically, but Lib Dems and Greens particularly likely) make a 6 seat swing away from the Tories with your latter prediction.

[bolo]

This discussion reminds me of the Republicans in 2012 explaining to each other that the polls were weighted wrong and Romney might beat Obama.

The Tories are heading for a solid majority. Labour is heading for a crushing loss. And you're all f.cked.

Here's hoping I'm wrong.

[JQH]

This discussion reminds me of the Republicans in 2012 explaining to each other that the polls were weighted wrong and Romney might beat Obama.

The Tories are heading for a solid majority. Labour is heading for a crushing loss. And you're all f.cked.

Here's hoping I'm wrong.

Unfortunately, I don't think you are.

[El Pollo Diablo]

I don't think you're wrong either. But the numbers are weird this time. And I'm still laughing from June 2017, to be honest. So if I get another laugh then so be it.

ETA: Worth bearing in mind though that the Tories need something like a six or seven point lead to get an overall majority, so it's not definitely, definitely f.cked. Just probably.

[dyqik]

I don't think you're wrong either. But the numbers are weird this time. And I'm still laughing from June 2017, to be honest. So if I get another laugh then so be it.

ETA: Worth bearing in mind though that the Tories need something like a six or seven point lead to get an overall majority, so it's not definitely, definitely f.cked. Just probably.

Also, the polling in the UK is much less reliable than in the US, and tactical voting is a thing that works in the UK.

Party ID is also a lot weaker. That makes the distribution on polls much wider, as more people are convincible.

[P.J. Denyer]

How the UK are predicted to vote is the image of Homer in his muumuu and I can’t unsee it

I laughed
I paused
I cried

[P.J. Denyer]

At the very least, it might make it harder for Johnson to give the NHS away once in power.

if Johnson does get his majority, it will because people dislike Corbyn, there's not much trust in him. His MPs will get this.

Unfortunately I think the plan is to allow themselves to wind up in a position where it is no longer avoidable, then claim it wasn't deliberate or their fault.

[Pucksoppet]

This discussion reminds me of the Republicans in 2012 explaining to each other that the polls were weighted wrong and Romney might beat Obama.

The Tories are heading for a solid majority. Labour is heading for a crushing loss. And you're all f.cked.

Here's hoping I'm wrong.

Unfortunately, I don't think you are.

I share your pessimism.

[Little waster]

At the very least, it might make it harder for Johnson to give the NHS away once in power.

if Johnson does get his majority, it will because people dislike Corbyn, there's not much trust in him. His MPs will get this.

Unfortunately I think the plan is to allow themselves to wind up in a position where it is no longer avoidable, then claim it wasn't deliberate or their fault.

Or if Brexit is anything to go by, claim that the sale of the NHS to the Americans was exactly what people definitely voted for, that they were completely open about it at the time and that it would be anti-democratic to do anything less now than gift it to Donald Trump in exchange for half a bag of rancid Hershey Kisses.

And if the Labour Party is against this then perhaps they should have mentioned it at the time.

[Woodchopper]

Joke already done.

Some actual content:

Tactical voting works because it shifts the seat counts away from the seat counts that the national polling suggests. I don't think you can easily put that into the prediction sites? I see there's a way with that particular site - some arbitrary but reasonable numbers with Right wing voters unlikely to vote tactically, but Lib Dems and Greens particularly likely) make a 6 seat swing away from the Tories with your latter prediction.

Most of the polls though already take that into account as most of the companies shift their method at the start of a campaign.

For example, before the campaign starts YouGov will ask people about whether they’d vote for parties. Once the campaign has started, it will present someone with a choice between the candidates in their constituency.

This is one reason why in the polls the national share of the vote for the Brexit Party crashed. Once they decided not to stand in Tory held seats the Brexit Party was removed as an option for almost half the country.

[GeenDienst]

Were were in a caff today and were approached by a 20-something lady bearing a leaflet about her candidacy in the coming GE, which is news to me. She is an "Independent", and it says the right things about the NHS and other local stuff.

f.ck it, I'm voting for her. The spittle-flecked ERG incumbent is going to win by miles as usual, so no no tactical voting options, and there's no party I'm inclined to vote for right now anyway.

I've no idea why she's pissing away her deposit in this manner, she probably won't make double figures. Spending it to buy beer for me would have been a more productive use.

[Martin Y]

Our Green candidate is actually a friend of Mrs Y. I might even vote for him as saving his deposit would be a positive outcome where no other seems possible.

But there's just the ghost of a chance that things might shift enough to give our Labour candidate hope and it would be agony if it was close and I hadn't helped.

But really this feels like 1987 again for Labour: this time they really believe they can do it. No. Wake up. You're going to get a kicking.
LibDems too. Swinson getting dangerously close to saying "go back to your constituencies and prepare for government" but then sees it running through her fingers like sand.

The funny thing is that one aspect of this election doesn't feel like deja vu all over again and it's Johnson. While there are plenty of previous prime ministers I've disliked more or less vehemently for their politics, he's in a different category. I feel utter contempt for him. I think he's far too stupid for this job, entirely lacking in honour and decency and I don't trust him to do even the wrong thing competently. It's like he entered office closely followed by a leaking supertanker of disrepute to bring the job into.

It's a curious new feeling for me. And of course it breaks my heart that he's going to win because people vote with their gut and Britain's guts are stupid.

[FlammableFlower]

^ this a million times over

Everything about Johnson screams unsuitability. The Tory campaign has also been a joke. It's like they're just going through the motions. And yet... it's highly unlikely they're going to lose.

[GeenDienst]

Also got a leaflet from the Green today.

It felt sort of right chucking that in the recycling.

[jimbob]

^ this a million times over

Everything about Johnson screams unsuitability. The Tory campaign has also been a joke. It's like they're just going through the motions. And yet... it's highly unlikely they're going to lose.

Yup.

I have no love for Corbyn, but compared to Johnson, he's not personally a racist misogynist and there's no reason to think he's corrupt or a serial philanderer and sex pest and congenital liar.

[Opti]

I'm really pissed that Molly Scott Cato is running in Stroud. She ain't gonna win, despite Stroud Greenies hopes, and she's going to deliver the seat to some f.cking blow in Conservative candidate. David Drew (Lab and Co-op) has his faults, but he's sound on the important things. I know him well, but the Greens are going to f.ck this this right up the arse. Homeopathic, Steiner c.nts.

[GeenDienst]

I'm really pissed that Molly Scott Cato is running in Stroud. She ain't gonna win, despite Stroud Greenies hopes, and she's going to deliver the seat to some f.cking blow in Conservative candidate. David Drew (Lab and Co-op) has his faults, but he's sound on the important things. I know him well, but the Greens are going to f.ck this this right up the arse. Homeopathic, Steiner c.nts.

I get where you're coming from, but there does seem to be this belief among Labour supporters that the other, smaller national parties exist to help them to limp over the line into power.

[FairySmall]

I'm in a marginal and you wouldn't believe the amount of crap we're getting through the door. Except from the Labour Party who should really do better if they want to keep this seat. It's almost like they're relying on the fact that we're a Remain area.

Said crap through the door included a letter from Boris Johnson*. I feel unclean having read it.

* not handwritten obvs

[Opti]

I'm really pissed that Molly Scott Cato is running in Stroud. She ain't gonna win, despite Stroud Greenies hopes, and she's going to deliver the seat to some f.cking blow in Conservative candidate. David Drew (Lab and Co-op) has his faults, but he's sound on the important things. I know him well, but the Greens are going to f.ck this this right up the arse. Homeopathic, Steiner c.nts.

I get where you're coming from, but there does seem to be this belief among Labour supporters that the other, smaller national parties exist to help them to limp over the line into power.

Not in Stroud they don't. They're up against the fruitcakeist of them all. Really, Stroud greens are f.cking out there.

[P.J. Denyer]

^ this a million times over

Everything about Johnson screams unsuitability. The Tory campaign has also been a joke. It's like they're just going through the motions. And yet... it's highly unlikely they're going to lose.

Yup.

I have no love for Corbyn, but compared to Johnson, he's not personally a racist misogynist and there's no reason to think he's corrupt or a serial philanderer and sex pest and congenital liar.

This. Plus I bet Corbyn's father didn't think the British public were insufficiently literate to understand a reference to Pinocchio...

[Gfamily]

This. Plus I bet Corbyn's father didn't think the British public were insufficiently literate to understand a reference to Pinocchio...

I thought it was not literate enough to spell it.