The UK already has very good trade deals for those, via the EU.
Getting Brexit done
Re: Getting Brexit done
It's nothing to do with WTO rules or tariffs.
It's to do with large-scale manufacturers needing guaranteed supply of goods to accepted and recognised quality levels.
It's the red tape that being in the EU removed
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
- veravista
- Catbabel
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Re: Getting Brexit done
Indulge me and my ignorance Shelley. Couple of examples of goods we already trade outside the EU?
Re: Getting Brexit done
The UK quality levels won't change. You're muddling paperwork with reality.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Armaments. Pharmaceuticals. Booze. Nuclear reactor components. industrial chemicals...
Start here and look at our existing exports to the US
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kin ... ted-states
- veravista
- Catbabel
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Re: Getting Brexit done
OK. So that's around 11% of our current exports, so not much cash really. 64Bn ish and dropping.
Nuclear is going to be problematical as we've decided to leave Euratom and have no other regulatory body in place.
Automotive is mainly completely assembled cars made by Honda (for now), Toyota, Nissan, BMW etc. Oops. Oh, and First Bus (Ooops again).
Aerospace is heavily regulated and no one in the world will accept non conforming parts from the UK on their aircraft*.
Not sure about how pharma will be affected, I'm sure someone will be along soon.
Not very reassuring is it.
* Since the near demise of the 737max, Airbus need to up the production of the A320 family to about 62 a month to satisfy existing and transferred orders. Most of the wings are made in Broughton. Given that Airbus already have production facilities in China and Spain, how long do you think the UK plant will last when it becomes more expensive to make them here than in China, especially as they've already said they'd pull out if we left the EU?
Nuclear is going to be problematical as we've decided to leave Euratom and have no other regulatory body in place.
Automotive is mainly completely assembled cars made by Honda (for now), Toyota, Nissan, BMW etc. Oops. Oh, and First Bus (Ooops again).
Aerospace is heavily regulated and no one in the world will accept non conforming parts from the UK on their aircraft*.
Not sure about how pharma will be affected, I'm sure someone will be along soon.
Not very reassuring is it.
* Since the near demise of the 737max, Airbus need to up the production of the A320 family to about 62 a month to satisfy existing and transferred orders. Most of the wings are made in Broughton. Given that Airbus already have production facilities in China and Spain, how long do you think the UK plant will last when it becomes more expensive to make them here than in China, especially as they've already said they'd pull out if we left the EU?
Re: Getting Brexit done
Since (a) we already have a trade surplus with the USA, and (b) the UK is a much smaller economy than the USA, is it remotely credible that the USA will sign off on a trade deal that maintains or increases that trade surplus?
Re: Getting Brexit done
sheldrake wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:20 amThe UK quality levels won't change. You're muddling paperwork with reality.
Are you the sort of engineer who has to design products that get sold to customers?
I said nothing about the quality levels dropping but when customers' customers mandate proven levels of quality, it's not enough just having a good product, you need to demonstrate that your product meets their quality requirements. It would be possible to get that sorted out, but it would be an additional cost, which will be carried by UK manufacturers.
If there are alternatives, not manufactured in the UK, they will become more attractive. So UK products are already being designed-out for non-UK alternatives. That's not a good route to prosperity.
And given that a lot of UK exports are services, problems with standards and paperwork etc are even worse.
But apart from secondary and tertiary industry - and primary industries*, a few things (money laundering, possibly) will be fine.
*Farming and fishing exports would be very difficult.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Getting Brexit done
Maybe things would get clearer if Shelly expanded a bit on what he meant by "deregulation" making us more competitive. Maybe we're talking past each other. So how about an example?
- GeenDienst
- Dorkwood
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Re: Getting Brexit done
It' not listening to you. It's only purpose in life is to get you to reply to it.
Just tell 'em I'm broke and don't come round here no more.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Another remain myth. The UK is party to agreements on things contraband inspection via the EU. It does not have FTAs with significant partners via it's EU membership, in particular not with the US.
Re: Getting Brexit done
They will if it means their own producers can sell more to us in absolute terms.
Re: Getting Brexit done
No, the long term trend on trade with the US is growth.
We declarde we were leaving Euratom some time ago. Hasn't affected trade with the US.Nuclear is going to be problematical as we've decided to leave Euratom and have no other regulatory body in place.
The UK already sells goods in all of these sectors to countries that don't follow EU standards.
Automotive is mainly completely assembled cars made by Honda (for now), Toyota, Nissan, BMW etc. Oops. Oh, and First Bus (Ooops again).
Aerospace is heavily regulated and no one in the world will accept non conforming parts from the UK on their aircraft*.
Not sure about how pharma will be affected, I'm sure someone will be along soon.
Re: Getting Brexit done
The UK already sells goods approved as EU standard to countries that don't follow EU standards.
It's not at all clear the UK can sell goods marked as "UK standard" to countries that don't follow EU standards.
It's not at all clear the UK can sell goods marked as "UK standard" to countries that don't follow EU standards.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
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- Stargoon
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Re: Getting Brexit done
If I'm going to be pushed off a cliff I would rather walk away unhurt*, that doesn't mean I'm going to welcome the shove without resisting.
*considering that the ongoing situation, not limited too but massively influenced by Brexit has already cost my wife her job and been part of a significant decline in income from one of mine, it's a bit late to hope for 'unhurt'.
Re: Getting Brexit done
I don't think there's any evidence that the US would sign a trade deal that merely upped their own exports to a value that, at best, was equivalent to that of the likely increased imports unless it was for products that they could not procure anywhere else but I'm willing to be proved wrong.
- Little waster
- After Pie
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Re: Getting Brexit done
Just Japan, Brazil, Israel, Norway, South Korea, Canada etc.
Still we’ve got the Faroe Islands sorted, although somehow the mighty Faroese managed to get the upper hand in those negotiations. I bet China and the US will be a doddle in comparison.
Sheldrake was wondering why the Remainers refuse to accept what a wonderful idea Leave is, it is almost like after 4 tedious years of the Tories psychodrama being inflicted on the rest of the country all we still get from the Leave apologists is vague aspirations which don’t stand up to a moments scrutiny.
The numbers speak for themselves 45% of our trade goes to the EU through supply chains and distribution networks 40 years in the making, another 15% goes via EU trade deals and despite all the promises by the Leavers and three years worth of effort only half have been rolled over, despite most of them requiring nothing more than access to a photocopier. Japan (2% of our trade) have already stated they do not want to roll their deal over as they want a new deal more favourable to them. The 20 continuity deals, the only real “success” story of Brexit, aren’t improved deals merely the same deals we already had, the same deals the Brexiteers were so desperate to leave.
Now we now need to negotiate a new deal with the EU from a position of weakness and, due to the idiocy of the Leave side we now have a clock ticking too. Even the most comprehensive trade deal with the EU will fail to match membership of the SM and CU, the Norway-plus deal we were promised by the Leave campaign was vapour the day after the referendum (so much for the Will of the People), and we aren’t being offered a comprehensive trade deal, Johnson’s moronic deadline means we have a choice between a bare-bones basic deal on terms of the EUs choosing or no-deal at all.
The remaining deals could be years or decades in the making while the EU will likely continue to expand the SM and sign further and better trade deals as to be expected by the worlds #1 trade bloc, meanwhile a UK economy, which has already dropped from 5th to 7th will continue to sink into insignificance, will be running to just stand still.
And the cherry on the cake, WTO. Even 3 months ago anybody expounding the benefits of falling back on the basic floor WTO tariffs was merely demonstrating they had no idea what they are talking about and then that orange-tinged sack of shite the Brexiteers idolise went and f.cked the WTO so even that option has gone.
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
- GeenDienst
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Re: Getting Brexit done
I really don't know why you bother with this clueless c.nt.
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/count ... dex_en.htm
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/count ... dex_en.htm
Just tell 'em I'm broke and don't come round here no more.
Re: Getting Brexit done
GeenDienst wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:45 pmI really don't know why you bother with this clueless c.nt.
Re: Getting Brexit done
Because he's also the most articulate proponent of Brexit I have come acrossGeenDienst wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:45 pmI really don't know why you bother with this clueless c.nt.
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/count ... dex_en.htm
At least I can parse most of his arguments. They're still bobbins though.
As a fellow engineer, I'm also intrigued as to what field he's in that doesn't need to care about meeting the standards mandated by the customers.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Getting Brexit done
I'm a software engineer. Most of our exports go to non-EU countries. Why do you believe that leaving the EU will stop us being able to export to countries that don't depend on EU standards ?jimbob wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:03 pmBecause he's also the most articulate proponent of Brexit I have come acrossGeenDienst wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:45 pmI really don't know why you bother with this clueless c.nt.
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/count ... dex_en.htm
At least I can parse most of his arguments. They're still bobbins though.
As a fellow engineer, I'm also intrigued as to what field he's in that doesn't need to care about meeting the standards mandated by the customers.
Re: Getting Brexit done
I presume you still need an audit trail.sheldrake wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:05 pmI'm a software engineer. Most of our exports go to non-EU countries. Why do you believe that leaving the EU will stop us being able to export to countries that don't depend on EU standards ?jimbob wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:03 pmBecause he's also the most articulate proponent of Brexit I have come acrossGeenDienst wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:45 pmI really don't know why you bother with this clueless c.nt.
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/count ... dex_en.htm
At least I can parse most of his arguments. They're still bobbins though.
As a fellow engineer, I'm also intrigued as to what field he's in that doesn't need to care about meeting the standards mandated by the customers.
With physical goods, you need an audit trail of certified components. If I'm making something to automotive-standard, then any critical components will need to be automotive-compliant. If the parts are mandated to be lead-free, then I need to be able to demonstrate that they meet the specification. That needs a paper trail. If my precursor parts have a shelf-life, I need to show that I am using them within the shelf life.
If you are using a certification lab to demonstrate this, then the certification lab needs to be recognised. If its recognition currently comes from the EU, via the BSI, then you need the BSI to be recognised itself. That is possible, but needs to actually be done. If you decide to use, say the DIN instead, you are adding additional costs to your product development. You are also adding delay whilst this is happening.
Whilst this is happening, you are getting designed out.
Meanwhile, you are also skipping over the problems that customs clearance delays would have on the supply line. And the fact that most of the UK's trade is with the EU. Geography says it will continue to be like this.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Getting Brexit done
Most of the UK's trade isn't with the EU. Most of the UK's exports go to non-EU countries and that proportion has been growing for years.
Re: Getting Brexit done
When do we get to elect the people who write and enforce the WTO rules?
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.
Fintan O'Toole
Fintan O'Toole
Re: Getting Brexit done
Sorry, I meant to type that the UK's most important market is the rest of the EU.
Also the UK will have to make trade deals with these other countries from a standing start, when the UK currently has access due to its status as an EU member. And you also seem to underestimate the importance of compliance in the trade of physical goods. If there's a reciprocal agreement that EU standards are recognised, but no agreement that UK standards are recognised, then the goods need to meet EU standards, and that will take time and cost more.
Any type of Brexit is going to cause economic harm, and the harder the Brexit, the worse the harm.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation