General Election '24

[bob sterman]

ON the timing, is one effect to make it harder for (undergraduate) students to vote? If they are registered in their university town but away for the summer, less likely to make a special trip back. Or, probably, get registered at out-of-term address.,

I would think the most apathetic students - i.e. the ones least likely to make a special trip to vote - are probably still registered at their parents' homes as they never got round to registering in their university town.

[Gfamily]

ON the timing, is one effect to make it harder for (undergraduate) students to vote? If they are registered in their university town but away for the summer, less likely to make a special trip back. Or, probably, get registered at out-of-term address.,

Students can register at both uni and home constituencies, many universities offer the chance to enter their details on the electoral roll when they register.
For local elections they can vote at both places (as they are deemed to have local interest in both), but for parliamentary elections/national referendums they can only vote at one or the other.
I'm in 'discussion' with someone on that twitter about whether they 'have to choose in advance' where to vote. They don't.

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/ ... e/students

[Lew Dolby]

sorry - posted at bottom of prev page - already covered !!

[El Pollo Diablo]

So, we're six weeks away from an election - where are we?

GE24 May.png (673.83 KiB) Viewed 1053 times

My theory about why Sunak has called the election is that the polls continue to get worse and worse for him, and there isn't anything on the horizon to suggest that that will change. Today, with the new YouGov poll out, the Tories have dropped to their lowest 14-day all-poll average since October 2022. They're now at 22.9%, and just seven tenths of a point away from their lowest under Truss. Meanwhile, Labour have recorded a tiny boost in support this week, so the lead has grown to 21 points on average. If the trends continued until October, they'd be destroyed. They'll still be destroyed, but maybe a tiny glob of the T2000 will remain active if he goes now rather than later.

Remember, back in 1997, the Tories had been in something of a recovery for about 8 months or so. The economy was picking up, the advent of the election meant people thought more about politics and the Tories didn't seem quite so bad. In 1992, the polls (which predicted a hung parliament or a small Labour lead) showed the Tories nearer 40% support.

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For smaller parties, Reform have dropped in support recently, so the trends aren't very valid for them. They've dropped by a point on average in the last month. They do seem to be topping out now, and are likely to drop down again, I suppose. Let's see. But here's the thing: this isn't helping the Tories. The Tories have also dropped, by about half a point, in the last month. The Lib Dems have risen by about 0.7 points, and the Greens are around the same. Labour have risen by about a point too. Probably, at this point, the electorate remembering that the Lib Dems exist is the worst possible outcome for the Tories, because that's the mark of a true annihilation. Plus, of course, tactical voting.

Some seat scenarios, courtesy of electoral calculus:

- Today's 14-day average voting intention: LAB 488, CON 79, LIB 48, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 326 (link)
- plus 25% tactical voting Lab/Lib/Grn: LAB 505, CON 55, LIB 55, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 360 (link)
- Trend point for 4 July: LAB 473, CON 90, LIB 51, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 296 (link)
- plus 25% tactical voting Lab/Lib/Grn: LAB 492, CON 65, LIB 58, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 334 (link)
- Five point election period recovery for the Tories, five point loss for Labour from the 4 July trend point, plus tactical voting: LAB 407, CON 159, LIB 47, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 164 (link)
- Tory worst-case current polling scenario (today's YouGov poll), with tactical voting: LAB 534, CON 32, LIB 49, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 418 (over the Lib Dems) (link)
- Tory best-case current polling scenario (Monday's More In Common poll), without tactical voting: LAB 435, CON 146, LIB 33, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 220 (link)
- That last one plus a seven-point election period recovery, seven point loss for Labour, without tactical voting (Con 34%, Lab 36%): LAB 330, CON 267, LIB 16, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 10 (link)

So, basically, the election is going to have to go really, really badly for Labour for them not to get a majority. It's quite hard for them not to win. There will be tactical voting, and it's very unlikely that the Tories will recover seven points past the best-case polling, in my view. Add tactical voting onto that last scenario and the Labour majority becomes 22. But let's see. My current guess is that fifth scenario - a small Tory recovery, ending up in only a 1997-level landslide for Labour.

[dccarm]

ON the timing, is one effect to make it harder for (undergraduate) students to vote? If they are registered in their university town but away for the summer, less likely to make a special trip back. Or, probably, get registered at out-of-term address.,

Certainly makes it more difficult for some families with children in Scotland as it falls after the start of the Scottish school holidays.

[dyqik]

ON the timing, is one effect to make it harder for (undergraduate) students to vote? If they are registered in their university town but away for the summer, less likely to make a special trip back. Or, probably, get registered at out-of-term address.,

They can be registered in both places, and anyone bothered enough to register to vote at uni probably was bothered to register to vote at home as well.

[lpm]

Thank you EPD, that's really useful to have the range of scenarios.

[bolo]

Plus, of course, tactical voting.

Is it reasonable to expect significant tactical voting this time?

I can equally well imagine that people who have previously voted tactically might decide that the Tories are doomed anyway this time, so they might as well revert to not voting tactically. In which case a "tactical voting rebound" effect might actually reduce Labour votes at the expense of some third party like the Lib Dems or Greens.

If I were making up a list of scenarios I would be inclined to include one like this, but I don't follow UK politics very closely, so it may be bollocks.

[TopBadger]

The Tory worst case scenario is delicious, I'd love to see the LD's beat them to become the party of opposition.

[Lew Dolby]

Oh yes, my new dream scenario !

Meanwhile Mr Integrity today . . .

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... uros-wales

[El Pollo Diablo]

Plus, of course, tactical voting.

Is it reasonable to expect significant tactical voting this time?

I can equally well imagine that people who have previously voted tactically might decide that the Tories are doomed anyway this time, so they might as well revert to not voting tactically. In which case a "tactical voting rebound" effect might actually reduce Labour votes at the expense of some third party like the Lib Dems or Greens.

If I were making up a list of scenarios I would be inclined to include one like this, but I don't follow UK politics very closely, so it may be bollocks.

Yes, it is. The motivating factor for a good chunk of voters this time is much more anti-Tory than pro-Labour. Estimates of tactical voting levels have put them at around 33% or even higher in by-elections (which can be quite special), but it's an indicator of what can be expected. The last time the levels of anti-Tory feeling were this high were 1997, when the Labour vote suddenly became very efficient.

[FlammableFlower]

I was impressed with my daughter - she's turning 18 next month, but will be abroad when the election happens - so she called me yesterday to ask about setting up postal voting.

[IvanV]

I was impressed with my daughter - she's turning 18 next month, but will be abroad when the election happens - so she called me yesterday to ask about setting up postal voting.

Mine is 4 weeks too young...

[lpm]

There will be 26 year olds voting in this General Election you were too young to vote in the Brexit Rederendum.

[dyqik]

There will be 26 year olds voting in this General Election you were too young to vote in the Brexit Rederendum.

And quite a few "70 year old at the time" Brexit voters who won't be voting this time.

[TopBadger]

Oh yes, my new dream scenario !

Meanwhile Mr Integrity today . . .

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... uros-wales

Unsurprising... he fouls up the stage managed stuff with friendly stooges. Can't let him operate unscripted with Joe Public.

[jimbob]

There will be 26 year olds voting in this General Election you were too young to vote in the Brexit Rederendum.

Yup, my eldest daughter.

Her siblings are also able to vote as well

[Sciolus]

There will be 26 year olds voting in this General Election you were too young to vote in the Brexit Rederendum.

I'm sure they'll be delighted to be able to choose between Hard Brexit and Hard Brexit.

[Grumble]

There will be 26 year olds voting in this General Election you were too young to vote in the Brexit Rederendum.

I'm sure they'll be delighted to be able to choose between Hard Brexit and Hard Brexit.

Whatever you think of Brexit it’s not a good idea to rerun the referendum on it so soon. It’s entirely plausible that we can have a decent relationship with Europe outside of the EU. Maybe in another 10 years, possibly more, we can have another think about it. If you think there’s a popular mood of returning to the EU then you’re in a bubble.

[jimbob]

There will be 26 year olds voting in this General Election you were too young to vote in the Brexit Rederendum.

I'm sure they'll be delighted to be able to choose between Hard Brexit and Hard Brexit.

Whatever you think of Brexit it’s not a good idea to rerun the referendum on it so soon. It’s entirely plausible that we can have a decent relationship with Europe outside of the EU. Maybe in another 10 years, possibly more, we can have another think about it. If you think there’s a popular mood of returning to the EU then you’re in a bubble.

Absolutely.

I suspect we might have to be rule takers like Norway for some time beforehand. And a crushing Tory defeat is the first step.

[Woodchopper]

There will be 26 year olds voting in this General Election you were too young to vote in the Brexit Rederendum.

I'm sure they'll be delighted to be able to choose between Hard Brexit and Hard Brexit.

Whatever you think of Brexit it’s not a good idea to rerun the referendum on it so soon. It’s entirely plausible that we can have a decent relationship with Europe outside of the EU. Maybe in another 10 years, possibly more, we can have another think about it. If you think there’s a popular mood of returning to the EU then you’re in a bubble.

And minimal interest in the EU on reopening negotiations in the near future. Of course they’d like Britain to rejoin eventually. But right now it’s an issue that they’d like to remain on the back burner while the EU and it’s members deal with more pressing problems.

[jimbob]

I'm sure they'll be delighted to be able to choose between Hard Brexit and Hard Brexit.

Whatever you think of Brexit it’s not a good idea to rerun the referendum on it so soon. It’s entirely plausible that we can have a decent relationship with Europe outside of the EU. Maybe in another 10 years, possibly more, we can have another think about it. If you think there’s a popular mood of returning to the EU then you’re in a bubble.

And minimal interest in the EU on reopening negotiations in the near future. Of course they’d like Britain to rejoin eventually. But right now it’s an issue that they’d like to remain on the back burner while the EU and it’s members deal with more pressing problems.

Yes the UK sentiment towards applying to join has to be overwhelming. Probably 2/3 majority in any referendum.

It's not there yet but might be by the end of the next parliament

[Grumble]

Whatever you think of Brexit it’s not a good idea to rerun the referendum on it so soon. It’s entirely plausible that we can have a decent relationship with Europe outside of the EU. Maybe in another 10 years, possibly more, we can have another think about it. If you think there’s a popular mood of returning to the EU then you’re in a bubble.

And minimal interest in the EU on reopening negotiations in the near future. Of course they’d like Britain to rejoin eventually. But right now it’s an issue that they’d like to remain on the back burner while the EU and it’s members deal with more pressing problems.

Yes the UK sentiment towards applying to join has to be overwhelming. Probably 2/3 majority in any referendum.

It's not there yet but might be by the end of the next parliament

I think it will be another term after that at least. Next election I expect “closer ties” might be an issue, and it would take at least one or two more cycles to think about rejoining.

It’s not really about economics, more about whether people feel they are in control. That doesn’t necessarily relate to who is actually in control, but changing the narrative on that is hard work, especially given the absolute flood of misinformation and conspiracy theories currently.

[bjn]

I was impressed with my daughter - she's turning 18 next month, but will be abroad when the election happens - so she called me yesterday to ask about setting up postal voting.

Mine is 4 weeks too young...

6 weeks for mine. She was quite annoyed at missing the chance of giving the Tories a kicking.

[jimbob]

Could they even undissolve Parliament?

I think the idea is that they would remove Sunak before the dissolution of Parliament actually happens 25 days before the election.

Tory MPs have zero ability to remove someone from position as Prime Minister.

Doesn't matter what internal party rules they have, with silly letters or votes of confidence in leadership. They might fire him as leader of their political party. But it does not follow that he would stop being PM.

At least one was Andrea Leadsom so not the brightest (even amongst the population of Tory MPs)


https://news.sky.com/story/tory-ministe ... s-13142247