Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

Just seen a photo of a Gepard with digital camouflage. What’s the idea there then? To confuse digital imaging systems by making something appear pixelated?
https://twitter.com/aloha9916/status/16 ... 38560?s=20

It's a quick way of painting a pattern that works pretty well at breaking up outlines to human vision.

Here "digital" just means "painted on rectilinear blocks". More usually it means "multiscale camouflage", which is fractal like and works at a variety of resolutions/distances.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-scale_camouflage

This is the main reason behind the various "pixel" camouflages in service round the world - a quick, easy way of doing a camouflage designed so that our vision processes it as part of the background, which means irregular sizes and features in different scales to work at different distances.

There's another factor here, though, and that's that Russians aren't using pixel. Ukrainians notably are. That means those that can see it properly know what side it is on. In that regard it functions like a recognition mark, akin to the Zs, Os and Vs, the Russians have used, and the +, and now also an arrow, that the Ukrainians use.

[EACLucifer]

Per claim, JDAMs in use against Russian storage and staging positions in the Bakhmut area.

Two pairs of bombs come in, suggesting they've been released by two jets, though whether that's by toss bombing or dropping from altitude is not clear. There's discussion of both JDAM and ER-JDAM being supplied, the latter of which is a glide bomb with the addition of a wing kit, I'm not sure which these are. The last bomb is visible on film coming in pretty steeply, and does look a lot like footage of other JDAM strikes I've seen in other conflicts.

[EACLucifer]

A Ukrainian naval drone made it into Sevastopol harbour and exploded. It's not clear from the footage if it reached a target, or was intercepted. A previous attack saw drones break into the harbour, but they were intercepted before they could sink anything.

These drones are remarkably good at sneaking up on Russian positions, sadly they seem to struggle with the very last bit of the attack. I do wonder if a drone that could carry a small torpedo (perhaps create a catamaran from two of the existing hulls and sling it between), or one armed with a rocket instead of just a warhead. Given how close these drones are getting, all a rocket-firing drone would need is an unguided rocket aimed ever so slightly upwards. I'm not sure of the warhead size of these naval drones, but it's pretty big. An S-25 - which is used in Ukrainian service - and a single use launch tube would weigh less than half a tonne and hit pretty hard against a ship.

Alternatively, it might be possible to make a (presumably, though not necessarily) one way drone boat armed with a launcher for some kind of longer ranged weapon, to enable attacks on Sevastopol and airbases in occupied Crimea, something like a single tube carrying an M31 guided rocket or something. f.ck knows, just speculating.

Alternatively you could use the same sort of tech as is used for the drone boats to make drone torpedos. It's not clear how these sense targets, or how developed they are, but it is worth noting that prototype to in service for the drone boats was pretty damn quick. Several models have been mentioned with ranges of up to 2000km and warheads of up to 5000kg for the largest model.

[Martin_B]

A Ukrainian naval drone made it into Sevastopol harbour and exploded. It's not clear from the footage if it reached a target, or was intercepted. A previous attack saw drones break into the harbour, but they were intercepted before they could sink anything.

These drones are remarkably good at sneaking up on Russian positions, sadly they seem to struggle with the very last bit of the attack. I do wonder if a drone that could carry a small torpedo (perhaps create a catamaran from two of the existing hulls and sling it between), or one armed with a rocket instead of just a warhead. Given how close these drones are getting, all a rocket-firing drone would need is an unguided rocket aimed ever so slightly upwards. I'm not sure of the warhead size of these naval drones, but it's pretty big. An S-25 - which is used in Ukrainian service - and a single use launch tube would weigh less than half a tonne and hit pretty hard against a ship.

Alternatively, it might be possible to make a (presumably, though not necessarily) one way drone boat armed with a launcher for some kind of longer ranged weapon, to enable attacks on Sevastopol and airbases in occupied Crimea, something like a single tube carrying an M31 guided rocket or something. f.ck knows, just speculating.

Alternatively you could use the same sort of tech as is used for the drone boats to make drone torpedos. It's not clear how these sense targets, or how developed they are, but it is worth noting that prototype to in service for the drone boats was pretty damn quick. Several models have been mentioned with ranges of up to 2000km and warheads of up to 5000kg for the largest model.

Spain has a spare submarine which has a ~20 te payload: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65337215. Needed a crew, but I'm sure that could be fixed with some tech.

[Woodchopper]

Good thread on the defence of Bakhmut: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[Woodchopper]

A year ago Volodymyr and his men were firing all 40 barrels of their BM-21 Grad rocket launcher in one go. Now they can only afford to fire a few at a time at Russian targets.

[…]

He says Ukraine has already burned through its own stocks of Grad ammunition, so is relying on rockets sourced from other countries. Volodymyr says supplies are coming from the Czech Republic, Romania and Pakistan. He complains the rockets originating from Pakistan are "not of a good quality".

[…]

A cache of classified US documents was leaked online earlier this month - maps, charts and photos - revealing detailed intelligence gathered on the war.

I ask Josef if these were correct in highlighting an acute shortage of Buk missiles. "No, that's not true," he insists. But he does admit that the Buk is proving hard to maintain and Ukraine needs more.

"We haven't got enough," he says. "Parts break and we haven't got spares because the factories that produce them are not in Ukraine."

Josef doesn't only dispute some of the contents of those leaked US intelligence reports. He questions whether they have really revealed any secrets.

"Why should we be angry with the Americans?" he asks. "Because they gave information the Russians have had for 20 years? Ridiculous!" Russia, he believes, has always known about the capabilities of Ukraine's armed forces.

[…]

At another location near Bakhmut, Ukrainian troops from its 80th Brigade are already expending hundreds of artillery rounds a day, to try to repel Russia's advances.

They are already using some of the weapons supplied by the West. Serhiy and his men are operating a British made L119 light artillery gun. But Serhiy says they too are having to ration rounds. He says they're firing on average 30 rounds a day.

"We've got enough people for the moment", he says. "But we need ammunition. Ammunition is the most important."
I ask Serhiy if this is the make or break year for Ukraine. "If we go on the offensive this year and retake our land, then we'll win," he replies. "But, if that doesn't happen, then we don't have the resources for the war to go on for another five to ten years."

Volodymyr, the commander of the Grad, is even more blunt. "The country is exhausted, the economy too," he says.
And he fears that if Ukraine's action on the battlefield are not decisive this year then Western support may falter. "We are also worried our Western allies are getting tired of helping us."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65347835

[Woodchopper]

Nearly all the combat vehicles Ukraine’s Western allies promised to deliver in time for Kyiv’s expected spring counteroffensive have arrived, NATO’s top military commander said on Wednesday.

“Over 98 percent of the combat vehicles are already there,” said the officer, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, who is also the top commander of U.S. forces in Europe. In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, he said, “I am very confident that we have delivered the matériel that they need, and we’ll continue a pipeline to sustain their operations as well.”

[…]

Asked why the Biden administration had not rushed the delivery of advanced U.S. fighter jets, like Air Force F-16s, to Ukraine, General Cavoli said that Ukrainian forces had other more urgent requirements for the offensive, which U.S. officials now expect to start as early as next month.

Celeste A. Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told the lawmakers that advanced Western fighter aircraft ranked only “about eighth” on Ukraine’s priority list.

[…]

She said officials focused on resources with the “highest priority capabilities, and that has been air defense, artillery and armor.”

“There’s also a timing issue,” Ms. Wallander added. “What do they require right now, which is what we’ve been focused on for the battles that they’re facing? What can we deliver that will be timely and effective?”

Ukraine shares few details of its operational planning with the United States, but the counteroffensive appears likely to unfold in the country’s south, including along Ukraine’s coastline on the Sea of Azov, near the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula, American officials say.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/worl ... icles.html

[Woodchopper]

Along with more than 1,550 armored vehicles, 230 tanks and other equipment, Ukraine’s allies have sent “vast amounts of ammunition” and also trained and equipped more than nine new Ukrainian brigades, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said.

More than 30,000 troops are estimated to make up the new brigades. Some NATO partner countries, such as Sweden and Australia, have also provided armored vehicles.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 4c5c5e9ea6

[Woodchopper]

Detailed guide to Russian defences with good infographics: https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAIN ... index.html

[Woodchopper]

Unusual wry humour from the MoD:

FuySq6oXgAIDXHs.jpg (442.78 KiB) Viewed 833 times

[jimbob]

Meanwhile, there are claims that around Melitopol, Russian troops dug trenches in a cattle anthrax mound, and several contracted anthrax.

[EACLucifer]

Czech President Petr Pavl met with Zelenskyy. Among other things discussed were ammunition production, repair of T-72 and T-64 tanks (There's a firm in Czechia that reconditions and upgrades T-72s and has already been doing this work to prep donated T-72s to Ukraine, and, presumably, they could try their hand at T-64 work, too, as Ukraine are major T-64 users).

They also discussed joint production of aircraft for training and light close air support roles and possible technology transfer to enable that - I can only assume that refers to L-39NG and/or L-159s, both derived from the L-39 trainer. The L-159 would make a good supplement/successor to the Su-25 in Ukrainian service, as it can be armed with a variety of western weapons (and could potentially gain more - for example it can carry 70mm rocket pods - they could be paired with the APKWS guided rockets that have been long discussed and now finally seen in service in Ukraine. I'm not sure if this is already being done, but mounting a designator onto a small drone would make this weapon exceptionally effective as it could be fired by aircraft or ground troops out of visual range of the targets, a technique which would also work with Hellfires. Additionally, it can cope with the weight required for weapons like Brimstone that would let it attack without coming up above the radar horizon or into line of sight of Russian forces)

The L-159 would be a particularly good choice as it is substantially derived from the L-39 that most Ukrainian pilots would have done initial jet training on.

[Formerly AvP]

Images emerging of the Russian oil depot in Kazachya Bay, Sevastopol, Crimea, in intense flames, apparently after a Ukrainian drone attack.

[EACLucifer]

Ukrainian drone successfully hit oil storage in the occupied port of Sevastopol.

[Grumble]

Ukrainian drone successfully hit oil storage in the occupied port of Sevastopol.

That seems like a fairly major strategic hit

[EACLucifer]

Ukrainian drone successfully hit oil storage in the occupied port of Sevastopol.

That seems like a fairly major strategic hit

Yes, makes life difficult for the Black Sea Fleet.

This one's interesting. I know there's a lot of fires in Russia, but this one's arms industry. Bear in mind Ukraine does have sabotage teams that work in Russia.

[Woodchopper]

Ukrainian drone successfully hit oil storage in the occupied port of Sevastopol.

More info here: https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/16 ... 01472?s=20

[EACLucifer]

I think you can hear the engine on it in the video. Sounds a lot like a V1 flying bomb!

You can. It's probably a little two stroke petrol engine, similar to the ones used on the Iranian "Shahed" drones, which has lead to them being nicknamed "Shaitanmopeds" or just "Mopeds". The V1 of course used a pulse jet, the similarity in sound to a motorcycle engine of the time being coincidental.

And now part of me is wondering if pulse jets, given just how ludicrously simple and cheap they are, would be a viable option for this sort of single use, one way drone.

Either I'm not as daft as I seem, or quite a few Ukrainians are. I'm not sure which I find more unsettling.

Fact sheet translated by English Luhansk. Plan is range of up to 140km, 20kg warhead. The sort of thing you can't ignore, but also can't afford to keep shooting down with missiles. While it doesn't mention on the fact sheet that it's a pulse jet, it is.

[bjn]

Zerg rushing expensive air defences with waves of cheap arse pulse jets. Neat. Nothing on the guidance system, hopefully a few steps up from a V1.

[Imrael]

Zerg rushing expensive air defences with waves of cheap arse pulse jets. Neat. Nothing on the guidance system, hopefully a few steps up from a V1.

Shouldnt we sorry that this cuts both ways and Ukraine cares more and had more expensive systems. Recognising that they have (or maybe had) Shaheed in a similar role.

[EACLucifer]

An oil train derailed in Bryansk oblast, ca. 60km north of the Ukrainian border, allegedly after an explosion on the tracks. Between that and the Sevastopol drone attacks, it looks like Ukraine is possibly trying to create a fuel shortage in the occupied territories.

[EACLucifer]

Lofted rocket attacks are one of the main forms of air-to-ground attack in this war. It's good, in light of that, to see Sukhoi-25s equipped with US-supplied Zuni Folding Fin Aircraft Rockets.

I don't know if anything ever came of the idea of doing a laser guided version other than that one was tested more than a decade ago and that MBDA appear to still be advertising it. While it would be deeply unwise for Su-25s to maintain line of sight to their target, a designator mounted on a small UAV would pair very well with them, or potentially the designator could be carried by infantry or SOF. This would allow a unit to carry just the weight of the designator or designator equipped drone, but still quickly call in the substantial firepower of an accurate Zuni salvo if required, without the launching aircraft ever exposing itself to enemy radar or MANPADS. This approach would also work with the Hydra-70 rocket pod and it's guided version, the APKWS. Though small, the APKWS is very accurate. Additionally, Hydra-70 pods would work very well with unguided rockets to blanket an area in order to suppress infantry and force them to take cover, much as various Warsaw Pact type rockets are used at the moment.

[EACLucifer]

AP - White House: US estimates Russia suffered 100,000 casualties, 20,000 killed since December as Ukraine rebuffs assaults

That's the big Russian Winter offensive. They captured most, but by no means all, of Bakhmut and approximately nothing else.

[TopBadger]

it looks like Ukraine is possibly trying to create a fuel shortage in the occupied territories.

Smart thing to do before going on a combined arms manoeuver is to limit the enemies ability to do the same.

It's doubly smart in that reducing Russia's fuel stocks enough may also encourage Russian tanks to be pulled back before being lost because static fighting vehicles need to idle and consume fuel to power the turrets and systems.

[EACLucifer]

AP - White House: US estimates Russia suffered 100,000 casualties, 20,000 killed since December as Ukraine rebuffs assaults

That's the big Russian Winter offensive. They captured most, but by no means all, of Bakhmut and approximately nothing else.

In fact this month they actually lost territory, in overall terms.