I'm going to focus more on the future than the past here. I don't think that freedom is curtailed as much for driving risk as is being proposed for Covid risk. Imagine if you had to check in on some smartphone app and get permission to drive more than 5 miles from your home? that might massively reduce driving deaths, but I'd say it was excessive as it would affect a lot of people most days. That seems like a closer parallel to covid passports to enter place of work etc..Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:13 pmThe risks and mitigations need to be considered on the same time scale for any comparison to make sense.
For covid, part of the worry was precisely the acute nature of the risk - overwhelmed hospitals and sudden mass mortality are more disruptive than spreading the illness and death over, say, a decade. Many of the consequences are nonlinear.
So, for example, you'd want to be comparing annual risks and annual precautions, especially as we don't know how long countries will be keeping vaccine passports (my guess is till after the winter, but then scrapping them if we get through ok).
Note that for driving there are a huge amount of preventative measures, from licences to use them in public, alcohol and drug restrictions, MOTs for vehicles, signs and lights absolutely everywhere, and so on. Freedom is massively curtailed for public safety.
Acute risks vs chronic risks
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
You also then tried to compare it with a number that I think was supposed to be the IFR equivalent for cancer (although the thread was locked before I was able to ask you to clarify what the stat actually was), which doesn't make sense as you were not taking into account the likelihood of getting the disease in the first place.bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:24 pmYou didn't actually present an argument - you simply made the claim. And the relevance of the "lifetime risk of death" from COVID when deciding what precautions to take during a wave of the pandemic is unclear.sheldrake wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:03 pmAn argument I made in the other thread was that I think IFR for Covid is a good proxy for lifetime risk of death for the unvaccinated as it has a very low mutation rate (paper was cited) and the immunity you get from surviving it once is very strong (very small risk of reinfection, and the reinfected very rarely need hospital care or die). That argument may be wrong and it's worth exploring further.
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
That's untrue, I cited papers giving data in support.bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:24 pm
You didn't actually present an argument - you simply made the claim.
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
Somebody else introduced the IFR equivalent for cancer and I simply used their figure to illustrate a point. The actual figure isn't super relevant for tha particular conceptual discussion. Although I think it's much more likely cancer will get most of us than covid, even if we're unvaxxed.bagpuss wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:29 pm
You also then tried to compare it with a number that I think was supposed to be the IFR equivalent for cancer (although the thread was locked before I was able to ask you to clarify what the stat actually was), which doesn't make sense as you were not taking into account the likelihood of getting the disease in the first place.
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
But that would be a ridiculous and pointless requirement (given the oft-recited stat that most accidents take place within 5 miles of home) so of course it would be excessive. Any mitigation that is some kind of apparently random restriction rather than something tailored to address the greatest risks, is always going to be excessive. The two things might be close parallels in your mind but they're not in mine and I suspect wouldn't be in most other people's minds.sheldrake wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:28 pmI'm going to focus more on the future than the past here. I don't think that freedom is curtailed as much for driving risk as is being proposed for Covid risk. Imagine if you had to check in on some smartphone app and get permission to drive more than 5 miles from your home? that might massively reduce driving deaths, but I'd say it was excessive as it would affect a lot of people most days. That seems like a closer parallel to covid passports to enter place of work etc..Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:13 pmThe risks and mitigations need to be considered on the same time scale for any comparison to make sense.
For covid, part of the worry was precisely the acute nature of the risk - overwhelmed hospitals and sudden mass mortality are more disruptive than spreading the illness and death over, say, a decade. Many of the consequences are nonlinear.
So, for example, you'd want to be comparing annual risks and annual precautions, especially as we don't know how long countries will be keeping vaccine passports (my guess is till after the winter, but then scrapping them if we get through ok).
Note that for driving there are a huge amount of preventative measures, from licences to use them in public, alcohol and drug restrictions, MOTs for vehicles, signs and lights absolutely everywhere, and so on. Freedom is massively curtailed for public safety.
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
It really is relevant if the risks are in the opposite direction to the one you were claiming. I'm not saying they are but it is definitely relevant.sheldrake wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:32 pmSomebody else introduced the IFR equivalent for cancer and I simply used their figure to illustrate a point. The actual figure isn't super relevant for tha particular conceptual discussion. Although I think it's much more likely cancer will get most of us than covid, even if we're unvaxxed.bagpuss wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:29 pm
You also then tried to compare it with a number that I think was supposed to be the IFR equivalent for cancer (although the thread was locked before I was able to ask you to clarify what the stat actually was), which doesn't make sense as you were not taking into account the likelihood of getting the disease in the first place.
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
The vast majority of covid deaths happen in people over the age of 70 who are already stricken with another life-threatening condition, so I don't agree these things are as divergent as you think,bagpuss wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:33 pm
But that would be a ridiculous and pointless requirement (given the oft-recited stat that most accidents take place within 5 miles of home) so of course it would be excessive. Any mitigation that is some kind of apparently random restriction rather than something tailored to address the greatest risks, is always going to be excessive. The two things might be close parallels in your mind but they're not in mine and I suspect wouldn't be in most other people's minds.
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Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
You made the claim that current estimates of the IFR for COVID are a good "proxy" for the "lifetime risk of death" from COVID.sheldrake wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:30 pmThat's untrue, I cited papers giving data in support.bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:24 pm
You didn't actually present an argument - you simply made the claim.
And you cited a paper on reinfection risk 1 year after primary infection, and something from June 2020 about how we don't have to worry about vaccine evading mutations too much (from June 2020 - before anyone had heard of Alpha, and Delta).
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Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
Not sure all those folks in their 70s out playing golf with their high-blood pressure, diabetes and high cholesterol think of themselves as "stricken" and not worth protecting.sheldrake wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:39 pmThe vast majority of covid deaths happen in people over the age of 70 who are already stricken with another life-threatening condition, so I don't agree these things are as divergent as you think,bagpuss wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:33 pm
But that would be a ridiculous and pointless requirement (given the oft-recited stat that most accidents take place within 5 miles of home) so of course it would be excessive. Any mitigation that is some kind of apparently random restriction rather than something tailored to address the greatest risks, is always going to be excessive. The two things might be close parallels in your mind but they're not in mine and I suspect wouldn't be in most other people's minds.
The fact is most risk factors for bad outcomes with COVID are comorbidities that are very common in the older population.
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
We have Israeli data on reinfection from Delta, and I posted another paper about the mutation rate being more comparable to measles than flu.bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:42 pmYou made the claim that current estimates of the IFR for COVID are a good "proxy" for the "lifetime risk of death" from COVID.sheldrake wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:30 pmThat's untrue, I cited papers giving data in support.bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:24 pm
You didn't actually present an argument - you simply made the claim.
And you cited a paper on reinfection risk 1 year after primary infection, and something from June 2020 about how we don't have to worry about vaccine evading mutations too much (from June 2020 - before anyone had heard of Alpha, and Delta).
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
I mean you guys know there is a National Risk Register where the hard sums have been done and the risks prioritised, right?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -FINAL.pdf
So perhaps a more focussed and useful conversation (as opposed to what's in sheldrake's navel this morning) might be to critique the methodology used here?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -FINAL.pdf
So perhaps a more focussed and useful conversation (as opposed to what's in sheldrake's navel this morning) might be to critique the methodology used here?
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
Their highest risk category starts at '1000 deaths in the next year', and their only timescale is 'in the next year'. That's not really a sign of super thoughtful maths in my view. It's exactly he kind of thinking that leads to panic over a disease that kills 0.x% of people who catch it vs tough enforcement action against the food industry putting all kinds of heart-disease inducing transfats and unnecessary salt and sugar in good. The latter would probably save more lives but it's not kind of thing that forms the subject of a Hollywood disaster movie.plodder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 1:05 pmI mean you guys know there is a National Risk Register where the hard sums have been done and the risks prioritised, right?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -FINAL.pdf
So perhaps a more focussed and useful conversation (as opposed to what's in sheldrake's navel this morning) might be to critique the methodology used here?
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
from the intro "The NRR provides information on the most significant risks that could occur in the next two years and which could have a widesheldrake wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 1:22 pmTheir highest risk category starts at '1000 deaths in the next year', and their only timescale is 'in the next year'. That's not really a sign of super thoughtful maths in my view. It's exactly he kind of thinking that leads to panic over a disease that kills 0.x% of people who catch it vs tough enforcement action against the food industry putting all kinds of heart-disease inducing transfats and unnecessary salt and sugar in good. The latter would probably save more lives but it's not kind of thing that forms the subject of a Hollywood disaster movie.plodder wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 1:05 pmI mean you guys know there is a National Risk Register where the hard sums have been done and the risks prioritised, right?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -FINAL.pdf
So perhaps a more focussed and useful conversation (as opposed to what's in sheldrake's navel this morning) might be to critique the methodology used here?
range of impacts on the UK."
So, you know, dur.
eta hang on, are you saying all policy should be subject to a risk assessment?
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
It's happening in the US and I think our current government are mendacious enough to start with 'it's just nightclubs' then expand the use over time. Once it exists, individual workplaces will also try it on (particularly certain US corporations)
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
sheldrake wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:39 pmThe vast majority of covid deaths happen in people over the age of 70 who are already stricken with another life-threatening condition, so I don't agree these things are as divergent as you think,bagpuss wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:33 pm
But that would be a ridiculous and pointless requirement (given the oft-recited stat that most accidents take place within 5 miles of home) so of course it would be excessive. Any mitigation that is some kind of apparently random restriction rather than something tailored to address the greatest risks, is always going to be excessive. The two things might be close parallels in your mind but they're not in mine and I suspect wouldn't be in most other people's minds.
Do people over the age of 70 with other life-threatening conditions not go out*?
And even the ones that don't, they're the equivalent of the passengers and pedestrians and cyclists and others who are protected by drivers needing to be trained and registered and cars needing to be maintained to a level of safety.
*Here is a clue in case you're not sure - I have 2 close family members well over 70 with underlying conditions. Both go out to places where covid passports might be needed.
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
Not that, but I'm suggesting that we should be looking at longer timescales when creating our hierarchy of risks. I believe that focussing on 'acute' things often triggers alarmist, heavy-handed responses.
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
They can get vaccinated and if still worried mask up, can't they? Do you feel that doesn't reduce the risk sufficiently without requiring all of the young healthy people around them to be subjected to IDs etc.. ?
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
But I'm a safe driver and don't drive too fast and look after my car so why should I have to worry about MOTs and observing speed limits when I think they're too restrictive?
We have these rules and restrictions to protect everyone and we mostly willingly submit to them so that we can have the convenience of driving. If we don't like it, we don't drive (except the idiots who will anyway, but there are always some t**ts). Same for covid passports and going out.
And that's without getting into the fact that the biggest benefit of a mask is to protect others, not the wearer.
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
I wasn't saying that it does. Just making the point that there are many rules that apply across the board even though not all people are equally at risk of either being impacted or impacting others.
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Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
Italy, as of a few days ago.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
It's not happening in the US. I don't think you understand how US government works.
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Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
Yeah, that's not what's happening in the US. The requirements in the latest executive order is "vaccination or weekly testing" as a health and safety requirement for employees that applies to businesses with more than 100 employees. US wide vaccination orders are for Federal government only, which is the employer requiring it of its employees.lpm wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:39 pmIt's not happening in the US. I don't think you understand how US government works.
It's not a CoVID passport, either. It's a one time proof of vaccination submitted to the employer, or taking part in the weekly testing program. It's a trivial thing, significantly less onerous than the mandated annual safety trainings for office workers.
Last edited by dyqik on Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Acute risks vs chronic risks
Italy is mad. It won't happen though.
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