Scrutable

bmforre wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:36 am

bjn wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:20 am

We are getting off topic. As I’ve said before, the population in the high latitudes is a statistical blip in terms of population and carbon emissions. The vast majority live much closer to the equator where it is much more relevant.

So Germany is a statistical blip and Sahara is the future?

India and most of China are both a long way south of Germany. India is the same latitude as the Sahara.

bmforre wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:36 am

bjn wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:20 am

We are getting off topic. As I’ve said before, the population in the high latitudes is a statistical blip in terms of population and carbon emissions. The vast majority live much closer to the equator where it is much more relevant.

So Germany is a statistical blip and Sahara is the future?

Norway is. Germany isn't, but they have wind and access to a distributed grid. It's not a single solution to fix it all.

By 2050, half of the human population will live within the tropics. Solar is also pretty effective in temperate regions. The tiny proportion of people in very high-latitude reasons will need something else during winter, sure, but then most of those countries are very wealthy so I'm sure they can manage.

To remain on topic, Australia itself is very sunny, and mostly located in the tropics, and that is unlikely to change over the next few hundred years.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 28, 2019 4:19 pm

To remain on topic, Australia itself is very sunny, and mostly located in the tropics, and that is unlikely to change over the next few hundred years.

Err, Bluff!

Looking at a map the Tropic of Capricorn quite clearly divides Australia into a smaller northern half and larger southern half. A quick google gave me variable figures of the percentage of land north of the tropic, between 30% and 45% (which is quite a variation, and suggests that some people don't know where the tropic is!).

The northern part of Australia is, however, very much the less densely populated area, with only about 5-6% of the population living in the tropics.

No matter how you cut your data, I'm not sure that you can state that Australia is "mostly located in the tropics".

Martin_B wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 29, 2019 12:37 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 28, 2019 4:19 pm

To remain on topic, Australia itself is very sunny, and mostly located in the tropics, and that is unlikely to change over the next few hundred years.

Err, Bluff!

Looking at a map the Tropic of Capricorn quite clearly divides Australia into a smaller northern half and larger southern half. A quick google gave me variable figures of the percentage of land north of the tropic, between 30% and 45% (which is quite a variation, and suggests that some people don't know where the tropic is!).

The northern part of Australia is, however, very much the less densely populated area, with only about 5-6% of the population living in the tropics.

No matter how you cut your data, I'm not sure that you can state that Australia is "mostly located in the tropics".

Regardless of how much is in the tropics or not. It's really bl..dy sunny in Oz.

The big thing is (as elsewhere) getting energy production to where it's needed. Australia's population is essentially in all the lowest sun areas.

Although that's still bl..dy high cf other places: from the guy I was talking to from FII, (at least in the Adelaide area) roof-top solar now accounts for 50% buildings and lots of people then have associated storage batteries in the house, but the government are still very wedded to coal. Partly as they've got just so much of the damn stuff and partly a similar problem as with Trump in the US - there are lots of lobbying to keep the coal industry going (and most of it is sold to India and China). Weirdly: Apparently they were shipping so much gas overseas that at one point it was getting close that they wouldn't have enough for domestic supplies!

Interestingly on conversations on the mega-battery: when it happened eventually everything ended up going down as battery backups for mobile phone masts ran out and also a lot of emergency backup generators actually failed to come on line. They got lots of ribbing when it was first done as in the case of a total failure it would only last for all of 2 minutes, but of course, that's not the point of it. Finally - they're going to double its size.

If you can get suitable storage systems/delivery systems in place then having solar production in desert environments will work.

Even though the populated areas aren't the sunniest parts of Australia, they are pretty bl..dy sunny in absolute terms. Oz has a per capita electricity consumption of around 9,179 kWh. That is around 25 m^2 of 20% efficient solar cells located over the Blue Mountains from Sydney (average annual total insolation of 1800kWh/m^2). Or 41,000 people per km^2 of solar cells. Obvs you can't just have solar cells, you need a generation mix, storage systems, a grid etc... but 5x5m per person is not alot and gives you an idea of what energy is available in the populated areas.

Do some simultaneous equations as to the cost of transmission lines and the increased insolation available further inland and build appropriately.

ETA: solar would work very nicely with the pumped storage in the Snowy Mountains Scheme, which can generate 1.8GW.

bjn wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:16 am

Even though the populated areas aren't the sunniest parts of Australia, they are pretty bl..dy sunny in absolute terms. Oz has a per capita electricity consumption of around 9,179 kWh. That is around 25 m^2 of 20% efficient solar cells located over the Blue Mountains from Sydney (average annual total insolation of 1800kWh/m^2). Or 41,000 people per km^2 of solar cells. Obvs you can't just have solar cells, you need a generation mix, storage systems, a grid etc... but 5x5m per person is not alot and gives you an idea of what energy is available in the populated areas.

Do some simultaneous equations as to the cost of transmission lines and the increased insolation available further inland and build appropriately.

ETA: solar would work very nicely with the pumped storage in the Snowy Mountains Scheme, which can generate 1.8GW.

And many people (certainly here in Perth) have solar cells, or even better is a mixture of solar cells and direct solar water heating (more efficient than solar cells and subsequent electric hot water heaters).

Martin_B wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 29, 2019 12:01 pm

bjn wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:16 am

Even though the populated areas aren't the sunniest parts of Australia, they are pretty bl..dy sunny in absolute terms. Oz has a per capita electricity consumption of around 9,179 kWh. That is around 25 m^2 of 20% efficient solar cells located over the Blue Mountains from Sydney (average annual total insolation of 1800kWh/m^2). Or 41,000 people per km^2 of solar cells. Obvs you can't just have solar cells, you need a generation mix, storage systems, a grid etc... but 5x5m per person is not alot and gives you an idea of what energy is available in the populated areas.

Do some simultaneous equations as to the cost of transmission lines and the increased insolation available further inland and build appropriately.

ETA: solar would work very nicely with the pumped storage in the Snowy Mountains Scheme, which can generate 1.8GW.

And many people (certainly here in Perth) have solar cells, or even better is a mixture of solar cells and direct solar water heating (more efficient than solar cells and subsequent electric hot water heaters).

BJNsister lives in Freo and she's got a solar thermal system on her roof. They were pretty common in Sydney, even when I was living there 25 years ago.

I live in almost the greenest bit of that map of insolation and we've spent the day packing our bushfire escape kit for the summer. We're about a month late but we got there in the end. :/

We're only 4km from the centre of the city but there's only one road out and it's a road that gridlocks for half an hour every morning. We have not the slightest intention of being anywhere near our home any time there's any risk of being burnt out and we also have no desire to stuck in traffic trying to escape. And so our plan is like that hoary old joke about voting - we will leave early and leave often. And until the sh.t really does hit the fan, we're going to try not to think about the fact that there is nowhere properly safe in our entire city.

For the solar power tangent, at 42°S, solar hot water and a heat pump hot water system work out about the same grid consumption over the course of a year. Over their expected life spans, it's still cheaper to have an old-fashioned electric cylinder, if you've only got a couple of people in the house. For bigger families, either starts to be more efficient. Further north, solar hot water has a distinct advantage.

And there are enough solar panels on the roofs of middle class homes that the government slashed the feed-in tariff by two-thirds to keep the state electricity supplier solvent. (They ended up in a situation where poorer customers were effectively subsidising people rich enough to have solar panels feeding the grid all day while they were at work.)

Squeak wrote: ↑

Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:59 pm

I live in almost the greenest bit of that map of insolation and we've spent the day packing our bushfire escape kit for the summer. We're about a month late but we got there in the end. :/

We're only 4km from the centre of the city but there's only one road out and it's a road that gridlocks for half an hour every morning. We have not the slightest intention of being anywhere near our home any time there's any risk of being burnt out and we also have no desire to stuck in traffic trying to escape. And so our plan is like that hoary old joke about voting - we will leave early and leave often. And until the sh.t really does hit the fan, we're going to try not to think about the fact that there is nowhere properly safe in our entire city.

Fingers crossed for you Squeak; I hope that this summer the fires are less damaging than last summer (well, actually, I hope there are no serious fires at all!)

Have you got all of your important documents (birth certificates, insurance documents, passports, etc) in a fire-proof safe, or are you storing them off-site? I know people who live in the Perth hills who keep all of that kind of thing in a bank safety deposit box (city centre bank).

Martin_B wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 06, 2019 12:13 am

Squeak wrote: ↑

Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:59 pm

I live in almost the greenest bit of that map of insolation and we've spent the day packing our bushfire escape kit for the summer. We're about a month late but we got there in the end. :/

We're only 4km from the centre of the city but there's only one road out and it's a road that gridlocks for half an hour every morning. We have not the slightest intention of being anywhere near our home any time there's any risk of being burnt out and we also have no desire to stuck in traffic trying to escape. And so our plan is like that hoary old joke about voting - we will leave early and leave often. And until the sh.t really does hit the fan, we're going to try not to think about the fact that there is nowhere properly safe in our entire city.

Fingers crossed for you Squeak; I hope that this summer the fires are less damaging than last summer (well, actually, I hope there are no serious fires at all!)

Have you got all of your important documents (birth certificates, insurance documents, passports, etc) in a fire-proof safe, or are you storing them off-site? I know people who live in the Perth hills who keep all of that kind of thing in a bank safety deposit box (city centre bank).

We've ummed and ahhed about that. They're in our evacuation box but we think we have enough digital records that we can probably replicate most things. I would store them at work but I'm in a massive open plan office, which doesn't provide many options for secure storage.

Take care Squeak and I hope you don’t need to evacuate.

Thanks. I assume we will have to at some point. Just hopefully not this summer.

And I have to confess that it's a slightly clarifying exercise to look around your home and rank everything by its value to you.

Basically, it's us and the cat. Far below that are the practical things and a small box of Calliope's photos and a couple of small toys. All our treasures, accumulated over decades, can just go up in smoke, for all I care. They're important as a collection but not as individual things. That's kind of freeing to think about.

I occasionally wonder whether we'd come out the other side of a fire as Mari Kondo fans or if we'd simply reaccumulate Stuff to the carrying capacity of our new home...

Capital Weather Gang:

Australia braces for highest temperatures in recorded history amid blistering heat wave

WaPo yesterday:

Australia may set a record for its hottest day this week, as temperatures soar past 104 degrees (40 Celsius) in most of the nation’s major cities, with inland areas of Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia possibly eclipsing 122 degrees (50 Celsius). The heat wave, which is unusually severe for so early in the summer, is affecting the entirety of the continent, gradually progressing eastward from Perth to Adelaide and on toward Melbourne and Sydney by Friday.

The heat is sure to aggravate the already record-shattering bush fires, which have emitted massive amounts of greenhouse gases and choked Sydney residents beneath a blanket of smoke. Health authorities in New South Wales are warning them to stay indoors during the day’s heat.

Stay safe Squeak, Calliope and cat, and the rest of you!

How hot can it get and still allow people to live there?

bmforre wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:41 am

Capital Weather Gang:

Australia braces for highest temperatures in recorded history amid blistering heat wave

WaPo yesterday:

Australia may set a record for its hottest day this week, as temperatures soar past 104 degrees (40 Celsius) in most of the nation’s major cities, with inland areas of Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia possibly eclipsing 122 degrees (50 Celsius). The heat wave, which is unusually severe for so early in the summer, is affecting the entirety of the continent, gradually progressing eastward from Perth to Adelaide and on toward Melbourne and Sydney by Friday.

The heat is sure to aggravate the already record-shattering bush fires, which have emitted massive amounts of greenhouse gases and choked Sydney residents beneath a blanket of smoke. Health authorities in New South Wales are warning them to stay indoors during the day’s heat.

Stay safe Squeak, Calliope and cat, and the rest of you!

How hot can it get and still allow people to live there?

The ABC are reporting that the average temperature across Australia yesterday was 40.9°C (not sure how this is calculated) and that it broke the previous record by more than half a degree.

Seeing how December is generally only the start of summer and January and February are usually warmer, we may break the record more than once this summer.

Hobart (which Squeak and Calliope live near) is about ~22°C today, Sydney a relatively cool 24°C, Brisbane ~28°C, Perth ~33°C, Darwin ~35°C, Canberra ~36°C, Melbourne ~40°C and Adelaide ~43°C. But the capitals are generally cooler; Alice is ~46°C and Oodnadatta (I think the record holder) is forecast for 48°C.

bmforre wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:41 am

Stay safe Squeak, Calliope and cat, and the rest of you!

How hot can it get and still allow people to live there?

Thanks! Hobart is still quite pleasant, as Martin said. Phew!

But we're flying into Adelaide tomorrow, where I'm sure that Friday's 45 C will be delightful.

And, importantly, the cattery is in a much less fire prone area than our house so Nellie-no-tail should be safe.

I did once live in a house where the living room used to get to 55C most afternoons for a few weeks each summer. We lived in the verandah until the sun went down each day. I'm not sure that that's survivable for people with serious health issues. And that was only in Victoria. The actual centre of Australia is already only just habitable...

It's no wonder Australia is showing such leadership in the fight against climate change.

What?

Oh.

Australia's brand new highest average temperature record didn't last very long. Just 24 hours, in fact. :/

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-12- ... s/11813446

Martin_B wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:05 am

The ABC are reporting that the average temperature across Australia yesterday was 40.9°C (not sure how this is calculated)

The page linked to by Squeak in the post above this one contains a description:

How is the average calculated?
The average maximum temperature is calculated based on a gridded data set.

The whole country is broken up into a 0.05-degree grid by longitude and latitude — which is roughly 5km x 5km — with each assigned a maximum temperature based on the weather stations around it.

An average of the grids is then calculated.

(For those really into their geography, the averaging is also weighted by area, because 0.05 degrees of longitude covers a bigger area closer to the equator)

Sciolus wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:58 pm

It's no wonder Australia is showing such leadership in the fight against climate change.

What?

Oh.

We've always had hot weather and we've always had fires. So there's no point us doing silly things like cutting carbon emissions or investing in better fire fighting resources. It's just those hysterical greenies who don't understand the rugged Australian way of life who think they know better. And besides, the firies *like* being out fighting uncontained fires on 45C days while their own homes burn down.

(I really wish this was hyperbole. )

Squeak wrote: ↑

Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:11 pm

Sciolus wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:58 pm

It's no wonder Australia is showing such leadership in the fight against climate change.

What?

Oh.

We've always had hot weather and we've always had fires. So there's no point us doing silly things like cutting carbon emissions or investing in better fire fighting resources. It's just those hysterical greenies who don't understand the rugged Australian way of life who think they know better. And besides, the firies *like* being out fighting uncontained fires on 45C days while their own homes burn down.

(I really wish this was hyperbole. )

And the PM's cult evangelical church, which spreads the prosperity Gospel, is opening new branch in New York. It's much more important that he attend than worry about how the firies are dealing with a few scrub fires. Oh, and he also had the government donate over $100,000 to said church while denying funds to the RFS.

c.nt.

Oh wow.

I feel like Australia doesn't get anything like enough recognition for being a total shitshow right now. It's easily Trump-level stupid, though admittedly with less geopolitical importance.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:37 pm

Oh wow.

I feel like Australia doesn't get anything like enough recognition for being a total shitshow right now. It's easily Trump-level stupid, though admittedly with less geopolitical importance.

There’s also the religious discrimination bill being put through Parliament. The one that allows religious bigots impunity to be bigots. Much more important to get that through Parliament than worry about homes burning down and firefighters dying (2 today).