Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

Rivnopil liberated. Suggests that the Ukrainian advance from the west may be able to flank Staromlynivka, despite significant Russian reinforcements stalling the initial Ukrainian advance there.

[EACLucifer]

It's not the first time Russian sources have claimed this.

In previous cases it has been untrue.

Well sh.t.

Looks like they are trying to get a toehold in the swampy areas where, on the one hand, a breakout is much more difficult, but on the other hand, so is a quick repulse and destruction of the beachhead.

Yes, this doesn’t presage a breakout. Troops in that area will though be able to protect Kherson from mortar fire.

I still lean heavily towards this interpretation, but it's interesting to see Russians panicking about this. Reportedly Ukrainians are present in company strength using the old bridge as shelter. We know from video that a Russian IFV got destroyed running onto a mine crossing the bridge over the Konka river, which tells us that bridge is - or until very recently was - intact, and Ukrainian forces identified troops crossing there as a risk, so mined it, likely with a remote mining system.

The Russians complain that their loitering munitions - the sort of weapon that would be ideal in the circumstances - are ineffective due to heavy jamming/electronic warfare. They also report aviation can't freely operate because of S-300 batteries are present - presumably on the right bank. From other sources we have evidence that GMLRS is used in the counterbattery role, which allows Ukrainian rocket artillery on the right bank to hit any conventional artillery on the Russian-held left bank before it gets in range of the Ukrainian beachhead.

The Russians are also reporting the presence of pontoons. Part of me is conscious that's exactly the kind of rumour that spreads in this sort of scenario regardless of the truth of it. It's also worth pointing out that pontoon ferries, if pontoons are present at all, are much more likely than an attempt to bridge the Dnipro.

At present I still think it's an operation intended to keep Russian artillery away from Kherson, merely an operation of that nature carried out carefully and competently to protect those taking part in it and attrit Russian forces at the same time. However, Russia can't take their eyes of this one. If they move troops from the Oleshy area to reinforce other fronts, a small garrison could be overwhelmed and a more solid beachhead or even bridgehead established.

[Woodchopper]

Oleksiy Reznikov, Ukraine’s defence minister, told the Financial Times that the liberation of a group of villages under Russian occupation in recent weeks was “not the main event” in Kyiv’s planned attack.

“When it happens, you will all see it . . . Everyone will see everything,” said Reznikov, brushing aside media coverage of slow progress against well-fortified Russian positions.

[…]

He confirmed that Ukraine’s main troop reserves, including most brigades recently trained in the west and equipped with modern Nato tanks and armoured vehicles, have yet to be used in the operation.

[…]

[He] cautioned against Ukraine banking on further “mutinies and riots” in Russia for battlefield success, saying there were no immediate signs of a collapse in morale. “Once it gets hot, we’ll see how resilient they are,” he said pointing to future counteroffensive operations.

“We need to trust in our security and defence forces as well as our partners providing weapons,” he added, stressing these factors were more “predictable” than the situation in Russia.

[…]

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has so far recaptured about 300 square kilometres from Russia, according to the UK Ministry of Defence, double what Kyiv has officially announced. Even so, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged the gains are “slower than desired”.

Reznikov said Ukraine’s forces had made “certain gains” that the general staff had not made public to avoid exposing troops. “Sometimes the Russians do not report to their leadership that they have lost a certain area or territory. They are afraid to report further to their superiors,” he said.

While the insurrection led by the Russian warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin had yet to change the calculus on the battlefield, Reznikov said it offered a “vivid illustration” of Russia’s vulnerabilities. “This helps the west realise that they are investing in Ukraine for a reason, that Ukraine’s victory is absolutely real and coming soon,” he said.

[…]

Reznikov cautioned that the operation would contrast with last year’s stunning rout of Russian forces in Kyiv, the north-eastern Kharkiv region and the southern city of Kherson. “You can’t expect a miracle in every operation.”

https://www.ft.com/content/a3df689a-74c ... 6eef311b43

[TopBadger]

However, Russia can't take their eyes of this one. If they move troops from the Oleshy area to reinforce other fronts, a small garrison could be overwhelmed and a more solid beachhead or even bridgehead established.

Well, D-Day worked pretty well for the Allies... if they can build a bridgehead over the river then that force could drive east and attack Russian defenses side on rather than front on... or possibly even from the rear!

[bjn]

Surovkin seems to have gone missing.

[EACLucifer]

Surovkin seems to have gone missing.

It would be foolish to think that competence would be any protection against the coming purge of the upper ranks of the Russian military, in fact, it may even be a reason to purge a general - too competent means too likely to be able to pull of a coup.

Surovikin's a bastard of the first water, but also a relatively competent general who improved Russia's approach on the battlefield. He was also reportedly pretty close to Prigozhin, so it's hardly surprising if he's arrested.

Remember that the term "coup-proofed military" is used disparagingly for a reason.

[Woodchopper]

For Ukraine’s counteroffensive to progress faster, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the top officer in Ukraine’s armed forces, says he needs more — of every weapon. And he is telling anyone who will listen, including his American counterpart Gen. Mark A. Milley as recently as Wednesday, that he needs those resources now.
In a rare, wide-ranging interview with The Washington Post, Zaluzhny expressed frustration that while his biggest Western backers would never launch an offensive without air superiority, Ukraine still has not received modern fighter jets but is expected to rapidly take back territory from the occupying Russians. American-made F-16s, promised only recently, are not likely to arrive until the fall — in a best-case scenario.
His troops also should be firing at least as many artillery shells as their enemy, Zaluzhny said, but have been outshot tenfold at times because of limited resources.
So it “pisses me off,” Zaluzhny said, when he hears that Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive in the country’s east and south has started slower than expected — an opinion publicly expressed by Western officials and military analysts and also by President Volodymyr Zelensky, though Zaluzhny was not referring to Zelensky. His troops have gained some ground — even if it’s just 500 meters — every day, he said.
“This is not a show,” Zaluzhny said Wednesday in his office at Ukraine’s General Staff headquarters. “It's not a show the whole world is watching and betting on or anything. Every day, every meter is given by blood.”

[…]

Zaluzhny said he relays his concerns to Milley, whom he has grown to deeply admire and considers a friend, several times per week in conversations that can last hours. “He shares them absolutely. And I think he can help me get rid of those worries,” Zaluzhny said, adding that he told Milley on Wednesday how many more artillery shells he needs per month.
In these conversations, Zaluzhny is frank about the consequences: “We have an agreement: 24/7, we’re in touch. So, sometimes I can call up and say, ‘If I don’t get 100,000 shells in a week, 1,000 people will die. Step into my shoes,’” he said.
But “it’s not Milley who decides whether we get planes or not,” Zaluzhny said.

[…]

While F-16s will eventually arrive, following President Biden’s decision in May to back an international plan to train Ukrainian pilots and send the planes, Ukraine’s strained ammunition resources pose a different challenge.

[…]

Zaluzhny also pointed to NATO forces’ own doctrine — which parallels Russia’s, he said — that calls for air superiority before launching ground-based deep-reaching operations.

[…]

Because Russia’s more modern fleet of Su-35s have a far superior radar and missile range, Ukraine’s older jets cannot compete. Troops on the ground are easily targeted as a result.

“Nobody is saying that tomorrow we should rearm and get 120 planes,” Zaluzhny said. “Why? I do not need 120 planes. I’m not going to threaten the whole world. A very limited number would be enough. But they are needed. Because there is no other way. Because the enemy is using a different generation of aviation.

[…]

If anyone thinks that Ukraine’s counteroffensive got a lucky boost last weekend when Wagner chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin led a mutiny of mercenary forces on an assault toward Moscow before halting the advance, Zaluzhny is not so sure. Prigozhin’s Wagner forces had already exited the front line, after claiming the eastern city of Bakhmut a month ago, Zaluzhny said, so there was no noticeable change on the battlefield as the rebellion took place.

“We didn't feel that their defense got weaker somewhere or anything,” he said.

[…]

One worst-case scenario Zaluzhny must consider is the threat that Putin might deploy a nuclear weapon. And Zelensky warned last week that Ukrainian intelligence received information that Russian forces were preparing a “terrorist act with the release of radiation” at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe’s largest atomic power station.

Does that give Zaluzhny pause from trying to retake control of the plant as part of Ukraine’s counteroffensive?
“It doesn’t stop me at all,” Zaluzhny said. “We are doing our job. All these signals come from outside for some reason: ‘Be afraid of a nuclear strike.’ Well, should we give up?”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... interview/

[Woodchopper]

Zelensky complains that there is yet no schedule for pilot training on F16s, nor for delivery of the aircraft.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/zelenskyy- ... 35866.html

[Woodchopper]

Zelensky complains that there is yet no schedule for pilot training on F16s, nor for delivery of the aircraft.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/zelenskyy- ... 35866.html

Did a Google and in mid-June the Netherlands stated it had an aim “to have the training programme fully operational within six months.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/co ... 023-06-12/

There appears to be a big difference between starting training of one or two pilots and having a programme that could train tens of pilots.

I haven’t looked into the Netherlands but it may face similar issues to the UK where there are serious problems with flight training in the RAF, due to a shortage of available aircraft and instructors. https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/flyin ... -training/

[Woodchopper]

Leopard tank repair depot that was to be set in Poland has made no progress after two months. Germans blame polish company for expecting exorbitant prices and not wanting to take responsibility for work.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschl ... 1390fb23a7

[Woodchopper]

No idea if the link will work, but:

On Ukrainian "Air Defense Day" this picture discloses that the destruction of 2 Russian fighter jets and 3 choppers over Bryansk on May 13 was not a friendly-fire incident but the works of Ukrainian MIM-104 Patriot Missiles.

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/16757 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Picture shows dates and types of shot down aircraft.

[jdc]

No idea if the link will work, but:

On Ukrainian "Air Defense Day" this picture discloses that the destruction of 2 Russian fighter jets and 3 choppers over Bryansk on May 13 was not a friendly-fire incident but the works of Ukrainian MIM-104 Patriot Missiles.

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/16757 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Picture shows dates and types of shot down aircraft.

Tendar's helpfully reposting stuff elsewhere e.g. https://newsie.social/@Tendar and I have an instagram link somewhere.

This is the post about Bryansk for those who can't see it on twitter https://newsie.social/@Tendar/110648980541123316

[Woodchopper]

No idea if the link will work, but:

On Ukrainian "Air Defense Day" this picture discloses that the destruction of 2 Russian fighter jets and 3 choppers over Bryansk on May 13 was not a friendly-fire incident but the works of Ukrainian MIM-104 Patriot Missiles.

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/16757 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Picture shows dates and types of shot down aircraft.

Tendar's helpfully reposting stuff elsewhere e.g. https://newsie.social/@Tendar and I have an instagram link somewhere.

This is the post about Bryansk for those who can't see it on twitter https://newsie.social/@Tendar/110648980541123316

Thanks JDC, I’ll follow

[Woodchopper]

Summary of the situation after the first month of the counteroffensive: https://kyivindependent.com/francis-far ... st-weapon/

[Woodchopper]

Inside a partisan group fighting Ukraine’s counteroffensive behind enemy lines
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukra ... -zf50dk7lt

[Woodchopper]

“Russia has lost nearly half the combat effectiveness of its army,” Radakin [UK armed forces chief] said. “Last year it fired 10mn artillery shells but at best can produce 1mn shells a year. It has lost 2,500 tanks and at best can produce 200 [new] tanks a year,” he said.

https://www.ft.com/content/8cd1c388-6fb ... b6ea21ede2

[EACLucifer]

Russians stored MLRS rockets numbering at least hundreds and potentially more in an unoccupied and unfinished housing estate in occupied Donetsk. However, it was only a few hundred metres from a hospital, and occupied housing. Drone footage shows both the dump, and later it's cataclysmic destruction.

[Martin Y]

Russians stored MLRS rockets numbering at least hundreds and potentially more in an unoccupied and unfinished housing estate in occupied Donetsk. However, it was only a few hundred metres from a hospital, and occupied housing. Drone footage shows both the dump, and later it's cataclysmic destruction.

Gifted with hindsight it seems absurd they'd leave rockets and packing cases strewn around that large courtyard when they had the part-built structure with floors but no walls and could have moved stuff under cover. <shrug> Not my job mate.

Aside: Twitter seems to have relented and will let unregistered folk like me follow links to tweets again.

[TopBadger]

Russians stored MLRS rockets numbering at least hundreds and potentially more in an unoccupied and unfinished housing estate in occupied Donetsk. However, it was only a few hundred metres from a hospital, and occupied housing. Drone footage shows both the dump, and later it's cataclysmic destruction.

Christ on a bike... that's the firework display from hell.

[jdc]

It's not that there's no downsides to the use of DU ammunition, but those downsides always need to be compared to the downsides of failing to eject the Russian invaders. Sending DU ammunition is the right move. Now if only someone could persuade the USA to perform the same cost/benefit analysis to the DPICM cluster munitions they reportedly have in storage in quantity.

Saw this last night and forgot to mention it: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 1259714562

Politico reports that the US will announce tomorrow that they will send more than 100 000 cluster munitions (DPICM) to Ukraine.

[EACLucifer]

It's not that there's no downsides to the use of DU ammunition, but those downsides always need to be compared to the downsides of failing to eject the Russian invaders. Sending DU ammunition is the right move. Now if only someone could persuade the USA to perform the same cost/benefit analysis to the DPICM cluster munitions they reportedly have in storage in quantity.

Saw this last night and forgot to mention it: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 1259714562

Politico reports that the US will announce tomorrow that they will send more than 100 000 cluster munitions (DPICM) to Ukraine.

The submunitions involved have a dud rate of about 2%, much less than the ones Russia has been using indiscriminately. Nor will it be the first time that Ukraine has used cluster munitions, just the first time they used American supplied ones - Turkey has previously supplied the exact same round, and Ukraine used cluster munitions inherited from the Soviet Union, including a cluster-bomb armed Tochka-U in the Berdyansk strike that sank the Saratov.

There are two concerns about the use of cluster munitions - that their wide area of effect means they can be indiscriminate, and that duds can later go off when discovered years or decades later. Both are legitimate, but for the former objection, the civilians that need to be protected are Ukrainians, a powerful deterrent against recklessness by Ukrainian artillery, and much of the fighting is in the open, and typically in areas far too dangerous for civilians, with minefields and extensive shelling taking place. The second objection is also valid, but it is for Ukraine to weigh up whether the advantages now are worth the costs later - I'd say they are even without a shortage of other shells, and with a shortage of other shells the case is overwhelming, and there's a pretty good case for sending the older versions with a 5-6% dud rate too, if they are still available, partly to increase the amount of shelling Ukraine can achieve, as artillery supplies likely determine the amount of time they have to keep pushing at the front, and partly as that would include M26 rockets, allowing HIMARS and M-270 MRLS to blanket entire occupied areas, a technique that can even be used to partially clear minefields. Sadly large areas of Ukraine are extremely contaminated with mines and other UXO that will take years or decades to clear and in the meantime those areas will need to be closed off. Ukraine already has an extensive education program for kids warning of the dangers of UXO, featuring Patron the dog.

What I find very strange is the yelling from supposed human rights advocates, many of whom seem rather more concerned about this than the continued Russian use of them - the image below is cluster rocket motor sections used, IIRC, against Kharkiv. As well as extensive use of cluster rockets against cities like Kharkiv, Russians also used a cluster-warhead armed Tochka-U to strike Kramatorsk railway station last year, killing dozens.

Some people seem to have become convinced that because they are banned it makes them evil. They are banned for the reasons above. Using them with care as to where they go and after careful cost/benefit calculation regarding unexploded ordnance. They aren't inhumane, or rather they aren't more inhumane than other weapons. I even saw one academic saying Ukraine should receive humane weapons instead. Weapons are not humane. A bullet is not humane, and nor is blast and high velocity fragments. Conventional shells deliver those. Cluster bomblets are very similar to grenades, including those dropped by drones. Is a cluster bomb more evil than a grenade machine gun because the large amount of small fragmentation bombs arrive in one go rather than in a steady stream? Besides, other munitions aren't available and cluster shells are.

Ukraine are fighting on their own land and for their own people. They are bearing the costs of this action, just as they would bear the costs of inaction. It is a hideous position for a country to be in to need to use cluster bombs - or artillery at all - on their own soil. Westerners should be thinking about them, not grandstanding, especially those whose understanding of the issue doesn't go much further than "but it's got bad vibes".

I know what cluster bombs do and I hate them, but they are the right choice - the moral choice - in this situation.

[Imrael]

I know what cluster bombs do and I hate them, but they are the right choice - the moral choice - in this situation.

Well phrased - couldnt agree more.

[Woodchopper]

France to send SCALP long-range missiles to Ukraine
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international ... 285_4.html

[EACLucifer]

France to send SCALP long-range missiles to Ukraine
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international ... 285_4.html

Rumoured earlier but now confirmed. For those unfamiliar with them, they are exactly the same missile as Storm Shadow, so this increases available stocks to send and also shows political support for sending long range missiles, which might finally persuade the USA to budge on ATACMS - realistically, they also ought to consider sending older model JASSM, a roughly equivalent missile to Storm Shadow/SCALP, which aren't anything like as effective for the USA's likely uses as the newer and longer ranged variants of that missile, but would be very useful for Ukraine.

Another point to consider is that Ukraine is experimenting with converting old S-200s into land attack missiles. So far they seem to have been used to sound out air defences around the Kerch Bridge, but given the lack of accuracy likely with such a conversion, the USA ought to consider sending comparitvely accurate ATACMS instead.

[EACLucifer]

Storm Shadow - or perhaps SCALP EG - appears to have claimed a second Russian general officer - Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov, who was reportedly killed in a strike in occupied Berdyansk. Previously Major General Sergei Goryachev was killed in a Storm Shadow strike.