Blyatskrieg

[TimW]

Another point to consider is that Ukraine is experimenting with converting old S-200s into land attack missiles.

Cheers. Discussed in this article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... ew-tweaks/

[Woodchopper]

Zelenskyy announces that F16 pilot training with the Netherlands is due to start in August.
https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Doesn’t state whether it’s for a handful of a proper programme for tens of pilots.

[Imrael]

Zelenskyy announces that F16 pilot training with the Netherlands is due to start in August.

I didnt spot anything on ground crew training, which might possibly be a larger enterprise? Or not - I'm very far from expert.

[EACLucifer]

Zelenskyy announces that F16 pilot training with the Netherlands is due to start in August.

I didnt spot anything on ground crew training, which might possibly be a larger enterprise? Or not - I'm very far from expert.

F-16 coalition related statements have mentioned ground crew training as one of the things that needs to be done, but I've not seen details of it. This is an area where foreign volunteer contractors could potentially be very useful, as it would be a lot less controversial than doing likewise with pilots.

Pretty much everything I've seen - with the usual caveats regarding anonymous leaks to the press being very weak evidence and usually leaked by someone unhappy with where policy is going - suggests that a coalition of European countries has forced this rather against the Americans wishes.

[TimW]

Surovkin seems to have gone missing.

It would be foolish to think that competence would be any protection against the coming purge of the upper ranks of the Russian military, in fact, it may even be a reason to purge a general - too competent means too likely to be able to pull of a coup.

Surovikin's a bastard of the first water, but also a relatively competent general who improved Russia's approach on the battlefield. He was also reportedly pretty close to Prigozhin, so it's hardly surprising if he's arrested.

Remember that the term "coup-proofed military" is used disparagingly for a reason.

He's not dead, he's resting.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66183656

[EACLucifer]

Surovkin seems to have gone missing.

It would be foolish to think that competence would be any protection against the coming purge of the upper ranks of the Russian military, in fact, it may even be a reason to purge a general - too competent means too likely to be able to pull of a coup.

Surovikin's a bastard of the first water, but also a relatively competent general who improved Russia's approach on the battlefield. He was also reportedly pretty close to Prigozhin, so it's hardly surprising if he's arrested.

Remember that the term "coup-proofed military" is used disparagingly for a reason.

He's not dead, he's resting.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66183656

Meanwhile Popov has been relieved of command and is ranting about the stab in the back, claims that he was fired because he asked for rotation for his troops, but also possible that he was too close to Prigozhin or Surovikin or just too popular with the troops that he was a coup risk in of himself.

Lots of rumours from the Russian side that possibly the location of the 58th Combined Arms Army HQ may have been leaked in an attempt to get Popov killed. Instead Tsokov, his deputy, got taken out when that command post in Berdyansk was hit by a Storm Shadow missile.

Not saying the location was linked by elements on the Russian side, but the fact that some Russians believe it gives clues as to what their morale must be like.

[TopBadger]

Meanwhile Popov has been relieved of command and is ranting about the stab in the back, claims that he was fired because he asked for rotation for his troops, but also possible that he was too close to Prigozhin or Surovikin or just too popular with the troops that he was a coup risk in of himself.

Pretty easy to see why a well liked commander who cares for his troops would be a threat to Putin... all the Russian Army needs to do to end the war is to get their troops home and fix their poor political leadership in Moscow.

[Woodchopper]

Nearly a dozen European countries that pledged this week to train Ukrainian pilots are still waiting on the U.S. to formally approve the program before instruction on American F-16 fighter jets can begin, according to U.S. and European officials involved in the discussions.

A coalition of 11 nations, led by Denmark and the Netherlands, formally agreed to train Ukrainians to fly F-16s and potentially other fighter aircraft at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, this week. European officials have said they hope to begin the program in August in Denmark, and a training center will also be set up in Romania.

But instruction on F-16s can’t actually start until the State Department formally signs off on the request to transfer instruction manuals, flight simulators and other materials associated with the jets — and that hasn’t happened yet.
While President Joe Biden has promised to green-light the program, the formal request “is still being reviewed,” said Lt. Col. Garron Garn, a Pentagon spokesperson, who deferred further questions to the State Department. A State Department spokesperson declined to comment.

There’s no indication right now that the U.S. won’t eventually give a green light. But Europeans’ requests have already been in the pipeline for weeks: Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters last month that Denmark formally requested permission to conduct F-16 training. The Defense Department typically also weighs in on such requests, providing expertise on issues related to protecting sensitive technology.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/1 ... g-00106433

Interagency coordination on arms exports can take a long time. Frustrating that this hasn’t been expedited.

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 41582?s=20

This Twitter thread with evidence from mobik social media postings and videos would suggest that the Russian logistics (and consequent morale) situation might actually be even worse than we thought.

[Grumble]

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 41582?s=20

This Twitter thread with evidence from mobik social media postings and videos would suggest that the Russian logistics (and consequent morale) situation might actually be even worse than we thought.

Or possibly, as someone in the comments suggested, that the CO hasn’t paid the requisite bribes to get supplied properly. The lack of Ukrainian breakthrough certainly doesn’t suggest that the Russians have actually run out of materiel yet.

[EACLucifer]

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 41582?s=20

This Twitter thread with evidence from mobik social media postings and videos would suggest that the Russian logistics (and consequent morale) situation might actually be even worse than we thought.

Or possibly, as someone in the comments suggested, that the CO hasn’t paid the requisite bribes to get supplied properly. The lack of Ukrainian breakthrough certainly doesn’t suggest that the Russians have actually run out of materiel yet.

They could be having some pretty severe localised problems and have it not show yet because of the minefields, but that said, Ukrainian forces are slowly pressing forwards and have another six weeks or so to grind down Russian artillery and air defence with their own long ranged guns and missiles and to create the jumping off positions required if they want to have enough time left for an armoured blitzkrieg attempt before the mud gets bad.

[jimbob]

Russia has decided to allow vehicle traffic over the section of bridge that has "only" shifted a metre.

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/statu ... 1746539520

[Martin Y]

I wonder if they decided they had to risk it because of the pressure of panicked holidaymakers trying to GTF off Crimea.

[lpm]

I suspect it's a PR stunt. Declare it reopened, show traffic flowing, then close it again.

[jimbob]

I suspect it's a PR stunt. Declare it reopened, show traffic flowing, then close it again.

I suspect there is some of that, and what they did after the last attack. But...

I wonder if they decided they had to risk it because of the pressure of panicked holidaymakers trying to GTF off Crimea.

If I was having a holiday there, I would be wanting to get off there and really wouldn't want to go any closer to the front line.

[Woodchopper]

Thread on the state of the Ukrainian offensive by someone who has been there and talked to soldiers: https://twitter.com/hoanssolo/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[TopBadger]

Thread on the state of the Ukrainian offensive by someone who has been there and talked to soldiers: https://twitter.com/hoanssolo/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

I guess Elon has stopped folks reading twitter threads unless they're logged in? I don't have an account so what's the TLDR version?

[Woodchopper]

Thread on the state of the Ukrainian offensive by someone who has been there and talked to soldiers: https://twitter.com/hoanssolo/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

In terms of the lack of large scale combined arms operations, it’s important to note that this is very difficult to master and takes time. Get it wrong and they’ll end up killing their own troops. To take a WW1 example, the rolling barrage (ie coordinating artillery with an infantry advance) wasn’t perfected by the UK until around early 1917.

The Ukrainian armed forces were massively expanded in 2022 and coordinating infantry, armour, artillery and air is even more difficult. Natural that it’ll take time.

[Woodchopper]

Thread on the state of the Ukrainian offensive by someone who has been there and talked to soldiers: https://twitter.com/hoanssolo/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

I guess Elon has stopped folks reading twitter threads unless they're logged in? I don't have an account so what's the TLDR version?

It’s going slow because it’s based on small scale infantry attacks to get through minefields. Ukraine hasn’t yet mastered large scale combined arms operations.

[Woodchopper]

Thread on the state of the Ukrainian offensive by someone who has been there and talked to soldiers: https://twitter.com/hoanssolo/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

I guess Elon has stopped folks reading twitter threads unless they're logged in? I don't have an account so what's the TLDR version?

It’s going slow because it’s based on small scale infantry attacks to get through minefields. Ukraine hasn’t yet mastered large scale combined arms operations.

Found this, hope it works: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1681 ... 77697.html

[bjn]

One major enabler for maneuver warfare that NATO has and that Ukrainians lack is air supremacy. Before you go throwing in your units on the ground to do whatever is you want them to do, you first want to attrit your opponent's ability to resist those assaults. The main thing that does that for NATO is airpower. A key reason that Gulf War I and II had fleets of armoured vehicles easily rushing across the desert was that the USAF, RAF and various other airforces had blown the crap out of the Iraqi air force and land forces before any armoured vehicle started moving or solder started marching. The Ukrainians can't do that, they have to do it WWI style. Combined arms is hard, it's even harder when you can't even employ an important branch of your military.

[TopBadger]

Yep... that F-16 training program could and should have been started 12 months ago. In which case this summer offensive might have benefited from air cover.

Similarly ATACMS could and should have been supplied before Russia was able to disperse logistics, move it's fleet, spread out it's command structure, etc - Ukraine could have hit Russia's capacity to wage war much harder several months ago when things were more centralised.

[Woodchopper]

It wouldn’t though have been possible to create in Ukraine Gulf War 1990 levels of air superiority. That took hundreds of aircraft against an enemy with far less capable air defence than present day Russia. It’s one thing to train existing Ukrainian fighter pilots to fly different aircraft, another to train them from scratch.

Recent wars have involved NATO being a flat track bully. We need to go back to, say, air operations against North Vietnam to find an example of a war against an adversary with the capability to fight back.

[bjn]

Ukraine, short of joining NATO, will never have air superiority let alone supremacy, even with gifted F-16s. That means they are going to have to do the hard graft of attritting mainly with artillery and the odd long range cruise missile. Manoeuvre warfare isn’t happening until the Russian logistics chain is seriously disrupted and their artillery is put out of action. The Ukrainians don’t necessarily need to do that across the whole front though.

[EACLucifer]

Ukraine, short of joining NATO, will never have air superiority let alone supremacy, even with gifted F-16s. That means they are going to have to do the hard graft of attritting mainly with artillery and the odd long range cruise missile. Manoeuvre warfare isn’t happening until the Russian logistics chain is seriously disrupted and their artillery is put out of action. The Ukrainians don’t necessarily need to do that across the whole front though.

One thing that threads like the above seem to miss, though, is the extent to which that is happening. The rate of Russian artillery losses documented by Oryx is currently very high. Russian counter-battery radars are also taking a beating. Popov's angry rant included stuff about getting hammered by counter-battery fire without a response. Partly that's due to Ukraine's better C3I. Partly it's long ranged gun-howitzers like the CAESAR, PzH2000 and Krab. Partly its the use of GMLRS in the counterbattery role it was originally envisaged for.

The upshot is Russian losses are high, and between that and their loss of ammunition due to long range strikes, they can't sustain the high rates of shelling they wanted. That's leading them to pull up air defences nearer the frontline, but then they are getting hit - an S-400 system recently lost several components to GMLRS strikes.

My back's too bad to sensibly explain the issues relating to timing and climate right now, but I will when I get the chance.