The Invasion of Ukraine

[Grumble]

Intimidating.

I wonder how many Good Soldiers there are, as in Good Soldier Sveik.

[Martin_B]

Intimidating.

Name? Don't tell him, Pike!

[Woodchopper]

The threat of a collapse in freight traffic is growing at Russian Railways due to a shortage of bearings for heavy-duty wagons, reports Railway Supply citing sprotyv.info. The so-called innovative wagons, which can carry 8 tons more than conventional ones, were left without spare parts after sanctions hit Russia over the invasion of Ukraine and foreign manufacturers began to leave the Russian market.

Bearings for freight cars

By the end of August, about 10,000 freight cars were taken out of service due to the lack of bearings and the impossibility of repair. In total, more than 200,000 wagons are at risk, estimates the National Transport Company (NTC), one of the largest operators of innovative wagons.

Locomotives modernization

The main manufacturers of cassette bearings for them were the Swedish SKF, as well as Timken and Amsted Rail from the USA. All three companies left Russia after the start of the war. Components were brought from abroad, and only the final assembly was carried out at Russian enterprises. Now there is nothing to assemble them from and nothing to replace imports with. They need sealants and lubricants, which are produced neither in Russia nor the CIS.

Until the end of the year, the shortage of bearings will be about 100,000 units, and this is provided that Russian manufacturers supply 95,000 units. But whether import substitution is possible in principle remains unclear. And while the management of Russian Railways is looking for new suppliers, several thousand cars, the scheduled repair of which is impossible due to the lack of cassette bearings, are already being dismantled for spare parts.

https://www.railway.supply/en/russian-r ... -collapse/

[EACLucifer]

Russia is using a claim that the Ukrainians are going to blow the Nova Kakhovka dam as an excuse to deport people from occupied areas on the right bank of the Dnipro. Naturally this is something that the Ukrainians aren't going to do - indeed Ukrainian activists sometimes point out the awful loss of life after the NKVD blew the Zaporizhzhia dam in WWII without notifying or warning locals or even evacuating Red Army troops. It is a concern for two reasons, though. The first is the abduction of civilians. The second is that the Russians might do something to the dam. It would be a warcrime, of course, but that hasn't stopped them destroying multiple dams, including breeching the gates of the dam at Kryvi Rih. The loss of life that could take place if the dam holding back the third largest reservoir in Europe were to be destroyed would be horrific.

[Woodchopper]

Looks like the Russians finished creating a barge bridge over the #Dnipro near #Kherson in the past 24 hours. Imagery from Oct 18 show a barge pushing the last parts into place at 0814 UTC. This allows Russia to resupply faster or to evacuate quickly. It's also an easy target.

https://twitter.com/artisanalapt/status ... k2AScaqPRg

I’m wondering whether the discussed evacuation of civilians will be a cover for also evacuating the troops.

[Woodchopper]

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is signaling that if Republicans win the House majority in next month’s midterm elections, the GOP is likely to oppose more aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Since the invasion in February the majority of congressional Republicans and Democrats have united in authorizing billions of dollars in U.S. military and humanitarian assistance to Kyiv as a geopolitical and moral stand against Vladimir Putin’s aggression.

McCarthy, who could be House speaker if Republicans triumph, indicated that that could end in a GOP-led House.
“I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” he recently told Punchbowl News. “They just won’t do it.”

[…]

Although most of the congressional leadership, most notably Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), have been steadfast in support for Ukraine, voters in several states in January could send Republicans to Washington who are eager to oppose aid. The number of those wary of foreign aid and adherents of former president Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda are expected to grow in the next Congress.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... -mccarthy/

Reduced US aid has many implications. Not least the need for Europeans to prepare to significantly increase what they provide and for the US to focus upon equipment that could be sustained by Ukraine.

[Woodchopper]

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday declared martial law in four Ukrainian regions that Moscow claims to have annexed as the Russian military continues to be plagued by setbacks in its eight-month offensive.

[…]

Martial law will enter into force from early Thursday, according to the decree published by the Kremlin.

The four regions' Russian-appointed leaders will also be granted “additional authority,” Putin said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that Russia will not close its borders following the martial law declaration.

Under Russian law, martial law gives authorities sweeping powers to impose curfews, travel and residence restrictions, military censorship and more.

The country's Constitution states that when martial law is in effect “the rights and freedoms of citizens of the Russian Federation, foreign citizens and stateless persons” may be restricted.

Russia may take "other measures" under existing martial law "if necessary," the Kremlin's decree Wednesday states, including unspecified "limitations on rights and freedoms" and "additional obligations," as well as "general or partial mobilization."

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin sought to quell worries that the declaration would impact residents of the Russian capital, saying in a Telegram post that the city will not impose any measures that might change “the normal rhythm of life” in the city.

Russia’s Krasnodar, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk and Rostov regions, as well as the annexed Crimean peninsula, should increase their security, implement a special entry regime and limit the movement of vehicles over their borders, according to the Kremlin's decrees. These regions also have the authority to temporarily evacuate residents to safe areas.

Russia’s Constitution gives the president the power to declare martial law “in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation or of a direct threat of aggression,” requiring that the president inform both houses of Russian parliament, the Federation Council and the State Duma.

The upper-house Federation Council approved the declaration of martial law later Wednesday, the final formality needed for it to become official.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/ ... ons-a79129

[Herainestold]

Looks like the Russians finished creating a barge bridge over the #Dnipro near #Kherson in the past 24 hours. Imagery from Oct 18 show a barge pushing the last parts into place at 0814 UTC. This allows Russia to resupply faster or to evacuate quickly. It's also an easy target.

https://twitter.com/artisanalapt/status ... k2AScaqPRg

I’m wondering whether the discussed evacuation of civilians will be a cover for also evacuating the troops.

Using civilians as human shields to protect retreating soldiers.

[plodder]

Cheap drones vs expensive missiles is an interesting one

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ssia-costs

I was pretty amazed at the cost of £20k for a drone, that’s the price of a fairly fancy new car

[bob sterman]

This is very peculiar - apparently the failure rate of semiconductors shipped from China to Russia has increased by 1,900 percent in recent months...

https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/ ... ure_rates/

So it seems that although Xi Jinping promised Russia "friendship without limits" - there is actually a limit - i.e. having more than 60% of chips in a batch actually work.

[bjn]

Cheap drones vs expensive missiles is an interesting one

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ssia-costs

I was pretty amazed at the cost of £20k for a drone, that’s the price of a fairly fancy new car

Cheap 2 stroke motor, fibreglass shell, simple dumb guidance system and some explosives.

[dyqik]

Cheap drones vs expensive missiles is an interesting one

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ssia-costs

I was pretty amazed at the cost of £20k for a drone, that’s the price of a fairly fancy new car

Cheap 2 stroke motor, fibreglass shell, simple dumb guidance system and some explosives.

How big a production line is there for either, and how does it compare to a car factory?

Oh, and £20k only barely buys the base model of a cheap car here. And it probably won't buy a two year old secondhand version of the same.

[bjn]

Labour is cheaper in Iran, plus a lot fewer parts in those drones than in a car. Think giant model plane. I gather that the two stroke motor is the most expensive but.

[plodder]

Labour is cheaper in Iran, plus a lot fewer parts in those drones than in a car. Think giant model plane. I gather that the two stroke motor is the most expensive but.

if it's just a lawnmower engine on a few plastic panels we can expect to see a lot more shed built flying machines in the near future

[dyqik]

Labour is cheaper in Iran, plus a lot fewer parts in those drones than in a car. Think giant model plane. I gather that the two stroke motor is the most expensive but.

Even with that, it's hard to compete with a highly optimized and capitalized auto production line and parts procurement system.

[Herainestold]

Mock them if you will, but they are proving to be a game changer for Russia in this war. Ten days of attacks have degraded 40% of Ukraine's power supplies. By the time winter sets in they will be basically without power, water and heat. Russia has ordered another 2000+ of these simple sacrifical drones. Putin will withdraw his forces across the Dnipro and reconsolidate his forces, while the drones continue to wreak havoc. Come the New Years his newly reconstituted army will push back into the rubble of Ukraine. Pretty much what the Russians did in Grozny and Syria.

[Bird on a Fire]

Labour is cheaper in Iran, plus a lot fewer parts in those drones than in a car. Think giant model plane. I gather that the two stroke motor is the most expensive but.

if it's just a lawnmower engine on a few plastic panels we can expect to see a lot more shed built flying machines in the near future

this is the way the world ends
this is the way the world ends
with a chitty chitty bang bang
and a whimper

[headshot]

So these drones are less sophisticated than German V1 rockets? Or do they have a guidance system?

[Woodchopper]

So these drones are less sophisticated than German V1 rockets? Or do they have a guidance system?

The Shahed-136 has GPS guidance so it’s much more sophisticated than a V1 or V2.

[Woodchopper]

Labour is cheaper in Iran, plus a lot fewer parts in those drones than in a car. Think giant model plane. I gather that the two stroke motor is the most expensive but.

if it's just a lawnmower engine on a few plastic panels we can expect to see a lot more shed built flying machines in the near future

The guidance system is the tricky bit. Someone would need to design the hardware and software to fly the aircraft toward the target. A craft that small will need to make course corrections as it’ll be affected by the weather.

[Woodchopper]

On the cost to make one, the complication is that Iran is under sanctions. Even companies that aren’t legally required to not sell there probably won’t want to deal with the country. The Iranian ministry of defence can’t just call up a supplier in Bavaria or New Jersey and get the components it needs.

A comparison with a £20000 car isn’t valid as the car benefits from global supply chains and vast economies of scale.

Imagine the cost of building cars if all the components had to be either made in house (from casting the crankshaft to writing the software) or imported via a complex network of illegal front companies and dealers needed to evade sanctions and company policies.

[bjn]

Labour is cheaper in Iran, plus a lot fewer parts in those drones than in a car. Think giant model plane. I gather that the two stroke motor is the most expensive but.

if it's just a lawnmower engine on a few plastic panels we can expect to see a lot more shed built flying machines in the near future

The guidance system is the tricky bit. Someone would need to design the hardware and software to fly the aircraft toward the target. A craft that small will need to make course corrections as it’ll be affected by the weather.

Raspberry pi, GPS receiver, a few actuators and a bunch of software development time. I bet there is even open source pi software that can do half of that for you already. A few hundred bucks in hardware per drone, plus software dev costs spread over all the drones.

ETA: pi navigation software https://tutorials-raspberrypi.com/build ... on-device/

It might not be exactly how they do it, but it won’t be that different.

[EACLucifer]

On the cost to make one, the complication is that Iran is under sanctions. Even companies that aren’t legally required to not sell there probably won’t want to deal with the country. The Iranian ministry of defence can’t just call up a supplier in Bavaria or New Jersey and get the components it needs.

A comparison with a £20000 car isn’t valid as the car benefits from global supply chains and vast economies of scale.

Imagine the cost of building cars if all the components had to be either made in house (from casting the crankshaft to writing the software) or imported via a complex network of illegal front companies and dealers needed to evade sanctions and company policies.

On top of that, one of the countries that most likely helped them evade sanctions - Russia - is now itself under heavy sanctions, meaning many of the smuggling networks need to be rearranged

[plodder]

So they would cost way less than £20k to build for a shed-based British enthusiast. What this country needs, more than anything else, is more shed time.

[EACLucifer]

What this country needs, more than anything else, is more shed time.

True.