Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
-
jimbob
- Light of Blast
- Posts: 5365
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
- Location: High Peak/Manchester
Post
by jimbob » Mon May 18, 2020 8:19 am
Simple maths shows that in the UK.
England and Wales alone have about 50,000 excess deaths so if everyone was had been infected, it would be an IFR of a bit less than 0.1%. But it's far lower, maybe 5% if we're feeling optimistic, making it far closer to 2% as a first approximation with *very* rough numbers.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
-
jimbob
- Light of Blast
- Posts: 5365
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
- Location: High Peak/Manchester
Post
by jimbob » Mon May 18, 2020 8:22 am
jimbob wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 8:19 am
Simple maths shows that in the UK.
England and Wales alone have about 50,000 excess deaths so if everyone was had been infected, it would be an IFR of a bit less than 0.1%. But it's far lower, maybe 5% if we're feeling optimistic, making it far closer to 2% as a first approximation with *very* rough numbers.
Add in the up to 20% needing hospitalization and the probable long term damage for many of thise and you are looking at scary odds. Most might be fine, but enough won't be
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
-
shpalman
- Princess POW
- Posts: 8341
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
- Location: One step beyond
-
Contact:
Post
by shpalman » Mon May 18, 2020 8:47 am
jimbob wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 8:19 am
Simple maths shows that in the UK.
England and Wales alone have about 50,000 excess deaths so if everyone was had been infected, it would be an IFR of a bit less than 0.1%. But it's far lower, maybe 5% if we're feeling optimistic, making it far closer to 2% as a first approximation with *very* rough numbers.
The official numbers from Hubei gave a CFR of 4-5%; with that "50% extra deaths" correction people were talking about afterwards it would maybe be more like 7%. Now it may well be that the official numbers are still 10 times too low, but then I'd expect the infection numbers to be similarly lied about.
But even if you only take their official figures as they were at the beginning of February, you get about 3%.
Wuhan is now on a mission to test its entire population of 11 million people.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
-
jimbob
- Light of Blast
- Posts: 5365
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
- Location: High Peak/Manchester
Post
by jimbob » Mon May 18, 2020 12:38 pm
shpalman wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 8:47 am
jimbob wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 8:19 am
Simple maths shows that in the UK.
England and Wales alone have about 50,000 excess deaths so if everyone was had been infected, it would be an IFR of a bit less than 0.1%. But it's far lower, maybe 5% if we're feeling optimistic, making it far closer to 2% as a first approximation with *very* rough numbers.
The official numbers from Hubei gave a CFR of 4-5%; with that "50% extra deaths" correction people were talking about afterwards it would maybe be more like 7%. Now it may well be that the official numbers are still 10 times too low, but then I'd expect the infection numbers to be similarly lied about.
But even if you only take their official figures as they were at the beginning of February, you get about 3%.
Wuhan is now on a mission to test its entire population of 11 million people.
Exactly, and the data looks surprisingly consistent from the start, with the Korean church outbreak being the best early data, showing 80% infection, 20% hospitalization off the top of my head
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
-
headshot
- Dorkwood
- Posts: 1443
- Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am
Post
by headshot » Mon May 18, 2020 3:27 pm
Fun times. My nextdoor neighbours and their young daughter spent yesterday in another neighbour’s garden for their kid’s birthday party, for which they hired a bouncy castle...
Now the nextdoor neighbours have their parents over to visit.
And I can hear them coughing, probably just their usual smoker’s cough, but still.
Thick people gonna thick...
-
shpalman
- Princess POW
- Posts: 8341
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
- Location: One step beyond
-
Contact:
Post
by shpalman » Mon May 18, 2020 3:33 pm
Dozens of bikers and 'hundreds' of people gather at popular beauty spot
Some moron who was also out saw lots of other people who were out: "what are all those other people doing here?"
Good news for anyone on the organ transplant waiting list though.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
-
AMS
- Snowbonk
- Posts: 466
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:14 pm
Post
by AMS » Mon May 18, 2020 6:05 pm
Motorcycle helmets would probably be pretty effective at reducing viral transmission. But you want a Covid-positive organ donation?
-
Martin Y
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 3104
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:08 pm
Post
by Martin Y » Mon May 18, 2020 6:13 pm
How many people in that photo are within 2m of anyone else, and how could you tell?
-
AMS
- Snowbonk
- Posts: 466
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:14 pm
Post
by AMS » Mon May 18, 2020 8:54 pm
-
plodder
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 2981
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm
Post
by plodder » Mon May 18, 2020 9:08 pm
Martin Y wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 6:13 pm
How many people in that photo are within 2m of anyone else, and how could you tell?
Dunno, but I live near a touristy place near the sea and it was pretty bl..dy mobbed today. Plus the public loos are closed, as are the pubs and cafes. So nowhere for them to take a piss...
-
sTeamTraen
- After Pie
- Posts: 2559
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm
- Location: Palma de Mallorca, Spain
Post
by sTeamTraen » Mon May 18, 2020 9:42 pm
jimbob wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 8:22 am
Add in the up to 20% needing hospitalization and the probable long term damage for many of thise and you are looking at scary odds. Most might be fine, but enough won't be
One of the things that pisses me off most about the "lockdown skeptics" is their more-or-less implicit narrative that if they do get it (which they won't because they definitely already had it last October, ooh, I was in bed for three days, it was terrible), they have about one chance in a million of dying ("less than a Saturday night out in Glasgow HUR HUR HUR"), and otherwise it will basically be a week-long skive with a bit of Carry On Nurse if they're lucky. Kind of like a slightly disrupted holiday where they had to stay on at the hotel for another 3 days and share a shower with another couple while the morons at the airline glued the plane back together HUR HUR HUR.
I saw this a day or two ago and haven't been able to fully stop thinking about it. Source:
https://twitter.com/jhalifax/status/126 ... 24352?s=20
- 98184917_10158469233471663_8389771614014668800_n.jpg (94.73 KiB) Viewed 4073 times
Something something hammer something something nail
-
Fishnut
- After Pie
- Posts: 2477
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:15 pm
- Location: UK
Post
by Fishnut » Mon May 18, 2020 10:16 pm
Holy f.ck.
I couldn't read the whole article because I knew I'd either scream with anger or burst into tears. How the f.ck has any of this been allowed to happen? We knew a pandemic would be coming at some point. How on earth did we end up so monumentally unprepared?!
it's okay to say "I don't know"
-
Fishnut
- After Pie
- Posts: 2477
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:15 pm
- Location: UK
Post
by Fishnut » Tue May 19, 2020 12:15 pm
it's okay to say "I don't know"
-
Bird on a Fire
- Princess POW
- Posts: 10142
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
- Location: Portugal
Post
by Bird on a Fire » Tue May 19, 2020 12:31 pm
This is outrageous (but thoroughly unsurprising).
Under current circumstances, being vulnerable to serious harm from coronavirus should be considered a disability and treated like any other (which isn't saying all that much - all disabilities should be treated better too).
Employers should have to make reasonable adjustments (PPE, distancing, ventilation), allow working from etc. Where that's not possible there should be extra payments and support available.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
-
shpalman
- Princess POW
- Posts: 8341
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
- Location: One step beyond
-
Contact:
Post
by shpalman » Tue May 19, 2020 12:48 pm
plodder wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 9:08 pm
Martin Y wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 6:13 pm
How many people in that photo are within 2m of anyone else, and how could you tell?
Dunno, but I live near a touristy place near the sea and it was pretty bl..dy mobbed today. Plus the public loos are closed, as are the pubs and cafes. So nowhere for them to take a piss...
Another one for the "but what are all these other people also doing here?" file:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/travel/uk-irel ... e-22047584
“It’s nice to get out of quarantine but I think it’s going to peak again because everyone’s going to go mad and go anywhere they can." said Ellie, who went somewhere just because she could.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
-
Fishnut
- After Pie
- Posts: 2477
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:15 pm
- Location: UK
Post
by Fishnut » Tue May 19, 2020 1:47 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 12:31 pm
This is outrageous (but thoroughly unsurprising).
Under current circumstances, being vulnerable to serious harm from coronavirus should be considered a disability and treated like any other (which isn't saying all that much - all disabilities should be treated better too).
Employers should have to make reasonable adjustments (PPE, distancing, ventilation), allow working from etc. Where that's not possible there should be extra payments and support available.
I completely agree.
I feel like a conspiracy theorist even thinking this, let alone saying it, but given the kerfuffle earlier in the year when we found out that Cummings was hiring eugenicists I can't help but feel there's at least a whiff of "oh look, we've got a chance to rid the country of all the 'drains on society', let's take it and pretend it's just normal tory incompetence".
it's okay to say "I don't know"
-
dyqik
- Princess POW
- Posts: 7643
- Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
- Location: Masshole
-
Contact:
Post
by dyqik » Tue May 19, 2020 2:11 pm
The US is going to be fun to watch from further away than I am. Daily new cases in Texas are now 50% higher than they were before they started easing what lock down they had there.
-
plebian
Post
by plebian » Tue May 19, 2020 6:26 pm
Fishnut wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 1:47 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 12:31 pm
This is outrageous (but thoroughly unsurprising).
Under current circumstances, being vulnerable to serious harm from coronavirus should be considered a disability and treated like any other (which isn't saying all that much - all disabilities should be treated better too).
Employers should have to make reasonable adjustments (PPE, distancing, ventilation), allow working from etc. Where that's not possible there should be extra payments and support available.
I completely agree.
I feel like a conspiracy theorist even thinking this, let alone saying it, but given the kerfuffle earlier in the year when we found out that Cummings was hiring eugenicists I can't help but feel there's at least a whiff of "oh look, we've got a chance to rid the country of all the 'drains on society', let's take it and pretend it's just normal tory incompetence".
Cummings the Great Disrupter must be having a hard time getting any work done, what with him ejaculating constantly since the crisis began.
He wants to reform government and the country, and he's been handed this pandemic to use as his hammer.
-
Bird on a Fire
- Princess POW
- Posts: 10142
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
- Location: Portugal
Post
by Bird on a Fire » Tue May 19, 2020 6:29 pm
Yep, it's the perfect moment for further disaster capitalism.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
-
mediocrity511
- Snowbonk
- Posts: 409
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:16 pm
Post
by mediocrity511 » Tue May 19, 2020 7:20 pm
Fishnut wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 1:47 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 12:31 pm
This is outrageous (but thoroughly unsurprising).
Under current circumstances, being vulnerable to serious harm from coronavirus should be considered a disability and treated like any other (which isn't saying all that much - all disabilities should be treated better too).
Employers should have to make reasonable adjustments (PPE, distancing, ventilation), allow working from etc. Where that's not possible there should be extra payments and support available.
I completely agree.
I feel like a conspiracy theorist even thinking this, let alone saying it, but given the kerfuffle earlier in the year when we found out that Cummings was hiring eugenicists I can't help but feel there's at least a whiff of "oh look, we've got a chance to rid the country of all the 'drains on society', let's take it and pretend it's just normal tory incompetence".
Although it's worth pointing out that furloughed workers who are shielding are not who are usually considered drains on society because they are employed. I can believe it with the care home stuff, but to me this feels more like their consistent misunderstanding that plenty of the shielded group are generally well, working age adults. There's been lots of replies to questions about those shielded or advice given out to them that have mentioned things like doing soduku and keeping in touch with grandchildren.
-
EACLucifer
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
- Location: In Sumerian Haze
Post
by EACLucifer » Tue May 19, 2020 7:22 pm
I've been getting to know a working age neighbour who is shielded due to a hereditary condition that it seems her daughter also has. Though luckily she's able to work from home, I'm rather worried about the countless others like her.
-
mediocrity511
- Snowbonk
- Posts: 409
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:16 pm
Post
by mediocrity511 » Tue May 19, 2020 7:27 pm
We find out this week if OH needs to shield after only a few weeks ago thinking he was healthy but prone to chest infections. Realistically this means we all need to, as there's no way to keep a 1 year old and a 5 year old at 2m distance from their Dad and most of the other guidance isn't workable either.
-
Fishnut
- After Pie
- Posts: 2477
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:15 pm
- Location: UK
Post
by Fishnut » Tue May 19, 2020 8:06 pm
mediocrity511 wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 7:20 pm
Fishnut wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 1:47 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 12:31 pm
This is outrageous (but thoroughly unsurprising).
Under current circumstances, being vulnerable to serious harm from coronavirus should be considered a disability and treated like any other (which isn't saying all that much - all disabilities should be treated better too).
Employers should have to make reasonable adjustments (PPE, distancing, ventilation), allow working from etc. Where that's not possible there should be extra payments and support available.
I completely agree.
I feel like a conspiracy theorist even thinking this, let alone saying it, but given the kerfuffle earlier in the year when we found out that Cummings was hiring eugenicists I can't help but feel there's at least a whiff of "oh look, we've got a chance to rid the country of all the 'drains on society', let's take it and pretend it's just normal tory incompetence".
Although it's worth pointing out that furloughed workers who are shielding are not who are usually considered drains on society because they are employed. I can believe it with the care home stuff, but to me this feels more like their consistent misunderstanding that plenty of the shielded group are generally well, working age adults. There's been lots of replies to questions about those shielded or advice given out to them that have mentioned things like doing soduku and keeping in touch with grandchildren.
Oh I know, but keeping my conspiracy hat firmly on, they ask for things like 'reasonably adjustments' which are just so annoying.
it's okay to say "I don't know"
-
Millennie Al
- After Pie
- Posts: 1621
- Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:02 am
Post
by Millennie Al » Wed May 20, 2020 12:52 am
Fishnut wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 10:16 pm
How the f.ck has any of this been allowed to happen? We knew a pandemic would be coming at some point. How on earth did we end up so monumentally unprepared?!
Blame the government, the opposition, and the voters.
Care homes were both part of the NHS and not part of it. They might have NHS branding, without being free at point of use. They were sufficiently organisationally separate that, instead of the NHS being one organisation with common goals, hospitals and care homes were in tension as patients took up valuable hospital beds due to not having care home places etc. Each part of the divided organisation had an incentive to offload marginally sick people onto the other, so when a crisis arose this long standing tension led to various bad results as different parts of the system worked in conflict instead of in concert.
It doesn't help that standard PPE is probably not very suitable. The normal primary purpose of medical PPE is to prevent medics infecting patients. Patients are already weakened by their condition and are often much more susceptible to infection then the healthy people around them. For example, when doctors first started realising that puerpal fever was being spread by their own actions it was not because they were catching it themselves. They were spreading it via contamination. However, PPE for Covid-19 patients must also protect the medics from catching it from their patients and an infected medic is much worse for patients than a contaminated one as the amount of contamination will be limited but an infectious person can produce a continuous stream of infectious material.
-
bob sterman
- Dorkwood
- Posts: 1151
- Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:25 pm
- Location: Location Location
Post
by bob sterman » Wed May 20, 2020 7:02 am
Millennie Al wrote: ↑Wed May 20, 2020 12:52 am
Care homes were both part of the NHS and not part of it. They might have NHS branding, without being free at point of use. They were sufficiently organisationally separate that, instead of the NHS being one organisation with common goals, hospitals and care homes were in tension as patients took up valuable hospital beds due to not having care home places etc. Each part of the divided organisation had an incentive to offload marginally sick people onto the other, so when a crisis arose this long standing tension led to various bad results as different parts of the system worked in conflict instead of in concert.
Many care homes don't have NHS branding (e.g. local authority run, private providers) BUT within each home many residents may be receiving NHS funded care.
For a small minority - the NHS may be paying all their care costs through NHS Continuing Health Care (CHC) Funding (although this is notoriously difficult to get).
For many more they will be receiving a smaller NHS Funded Nursing Care Contribution (FNC) - that pays for some of the nursing care they receive while resident in a home.
So even if the branding at the front door doesn't say "NHS" a good chunk of the residents are officially NHS patients - receiving care funded by the NHS.
Patients newly discharged from a hospital to a care home are particularly likely to be receiving one of these forms of funding - i.e. they didn't cease being NHS patients at the point they were discharged from the hospital. But apparently access to testing and PPE didn't follow them.