The Invasion of Ukraine

[TimW]

Another bit about Turkey:

Turkey has long sought the purchase of 40 F-16s from the US, and fresh talks with Washington come after Ankara ended its opposition to Sweden's NATO membership.

https://www.dw.com/en/us-moves-on-f-16- ... a-66184748

[jimbob]

More trolling by Ukrainian social media.

Tweet
See new Tweets
Conversation
Defense of Ukraine
@DefenceU
Attention! Those who are planning a coup d'etat in russia will need to book a post-coup meeting in the kremlin in advance. Please keep in mind that you will need to quarantine for two weeks. Kindly plan these events in advance.
6:03 AM · Jul 11, 2023
·
378.9K
Views

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/167 ... 94995?s=20

[jimbob]

Captain Stanislav Rzhitsky was shot dead in Krasnodar.

I can see reasons that Russians would want him dead - he oversaw mobilisation in the area and sent a lot of mobiks to die.

I can see reasons that Ukrainians would want him dead, and more so than the average Russian officer - as the captain of an attack submarine, he would have been responsible for multiple missile launches at Ukrainian cities.

There's also extensive interaction between the Russian armed forces and organised crime, all the way to the very top, so other potential motives aren't too hard to find either.

It looks like he posted his activities on Strava and someone calling themselves Кирило Буданов and claiming to be from Kyiv gave him kudos (one of 3 people at the time) for his last run (there was a mountain bike activity afterwards)

[EACLucifer]

Captain Stanislav Rzhitsky was shot dead in Krasnodar.

I can see reasons that Russians would want him dead - he oversaw mobilisation in the area and sent a lot of mobiks to die.

I can see reasons that Ukrainians would want him dead, and more so than the average Russian officer - as the captain of an attack submarine, he would have been responsible for multiple missile launches at Ukrainian cities.

There's also extensive interaction between the Russian armed forces and organised crime, all the way to the very top, so other potential motives aren't too hard to find either.

It looks like he posted his activities on Strava and someone calling themselves Кирило Буданов and claiming to be from Kyiv gave him kudos (one of 3 people at the time) for his last run (there was a mountain bike activity afterwards)

Is there anything to suggest that the Kudos was posted before the guy got schwacked?

The Ukrainian statement about it did apparently note the location, weapon used, weather at the time and lack of witnesses, though fell short of claiming responsibility. That said, Ukrainian officials didn't claim responsibility for that spectacular helicopter raid on Belgorod, which was caught on film, so make of that what you will.

Regardless of the perpetrator and motive, Ukrainian intelligence are going to want Russian officers thinking it was them so as to breed paranoia. Of course Ukrainian intelligence could have instigated or supported an attack by a Russian, even if GUR was behind it, it doesn't mean it was a Ukrainian assassin pulling the trigger.

[jimbob]

Captain Stanislav Rzhitsky was shot dead in Krasnodar.

I can see reasons that Russians would want him dead - he oversaw mobilisation in the area and sent a lot of mobiks to die.

I can see reasons that Ukrainians would want him dead, and more so than the average Russian officer - as the captain of an attack submarine, he would have been responsible for multiple missile launches at Ukrainian cities.

There's also extensive interaction between the Russian armed forces and organised crime, all the way to the very top, so other potential motives aren't too hard to find either.

It looks like he posted his activities on Strava and someone calling themselves Кирило Буданов and claiming to be from Kyiv gave him kudos (one of 3 people at the time) for his last run (there was a mountain bike activity afterwards)

Is there anything to suggest that the Kudos was posted before the guy got schwacked?

The Ukrainian statement about it did apparently note the location, weapon used, weather at the time and lack of witnesses, though fell short of claiming responsibility. That said, Ukrainian officials didn't claim responsibility for that spectacular helicopter raid on Belgorod, which was caught on film, so make of that what you will.

Regardless of the perpetrator and motive, Ukrainian intelligence are going to want Russian officers thinking it was them so as to breed paranoia. Of course Ukrainian intelligence could have instigated or supported an attack by a Russian, even if GUR was behind it, it doesn't mean it was a Ukrainian assassin pulling the trigger.

I can't see when it was posted or indeed whether it was independent trolling or official.

I would guess it would have been after, because although the trolling would have been even better before, it would have been too much of a risk.

[jdc]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 2717639680

Biden: No real prospect of Putin using nuclear weapons.

U.S. President Joe Biden said on July 13 that there is no real prospect of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin using nuclear weapons against Ukraine or the West.

If he's not worried about Russia using nuclear weapons, I'm wondering what kind of escalation he has been worrying about.

[EACLucifer]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 2717639680

Biden: No real prospect of Putin using nuclear weapons.

U.S. President Joe Biden said on July 13 that there is no real prospect of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin using nuclear weapons against Ukraine or the West.

If he's not worried about Russia using nuclear weapons, I'm wondering what kind of escalation he has been worrying about.

Probably just Jake Sullivan continuing to be a dickhead and Biden not realising that Sullivan's wrong about just about everything and should be fired - frankly he should be glad to be fired from his job and not from a howitzer.

[Grumble]

Looks like the Kerch bridge is more severely damaged than before. Wonder if we’ll get video of what happened?
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/168 ... 11008?s=20

[EACLucifer]

Looks like the Kerch bridge is more severely damaged than before. Wonder if we’ll get video of what happened?
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/168 ... 11008?s=20

I seriously hope this was Storm Shadow, because if it was, a) followup attacks can take out the railway section and b) it can be hit repeatedly faster than it can be repaired, judging by how long it took them to fix last time. Still, could have been something else - not like it was Storm Shadow last time.

ETA: If this was, as some are suggesting, naval drones, then goddamn but Russia's defences are weak. Haven't they heard of torpedo nets?

[bjn]

Videos around that purport to show two missiles striking on the bridge.

[Matatouille]

Haven't they heard of torpedo nets?

Probably sold by the naval quartermaster on the black market. How the drones would have got past the trained dolphins though is beyond me.

[lpm]

Those dolphins are going to fall out a window. It will be deemed suicide.

[lpm]

Videos around that purport to show two missiles striking on the bridge.

That doesn't seem consistent? The photos certainly look like a whack from below, lifting up the span and it dropping down again half onto the supports.

In the last attack the guard rails were all mangled. In this one they are pristine. The road surface is unmarked and the white lines are gleaming white. There cannot have been an explosion on the top surface.

[EACLucifer]

Videos around that purport to show two missiles striking on the bridge.

That doesn't seem consistent? The photos certainly look like a whack from below, lifting up the span and it dropping down again half onto the supports.

In the last attack the guard rails were all mangled. In this one they are pristine. The road surface is unmarked and the white lines are gleaming white. There cannot have been an explosion on the top surface.

Storm Shadow could be aimed for the pillar, which would give a similar effect, and could also be aimed through the span - the shaped precursor charge doesn't actually do much other than punch a hole directly in front, so a hit on the top or potentially between the spans could see the main charge going off under the decks. Or it could be some of those Ukrainian drone boats - basically manually steered surface torpedos - which would also give a blast up from below. Most Russian reports I've seen talk about damage to the pillar, but again, that doesn't narrow it down. Doesn't look like a bomb truck this time, though.

ETA: In this footage from the adjacent railway bridge it looks like there could be scorching on the pier where the span end has dropped. From what I've seen, by the way, there is displacement on the other side as well, and while not as dramatic, both spans will need replacing, so road bridge out of action for a while.

[EACLucifer]

So far the official Ukrainian version is that it was drone boats. Remarkable lapse in security to let surface drones reach a bridge so far from anywhere Ukraine has access to the coast, and does not bode well for Russia when Ukraine's drone torpedoes come into production and use.

[lpm]

I can't see how a missile could have weaved its way between the bridges and struck so cleanly.

But then can't see how a drone boat could have travelled so far undetected. The bridge is 400 miles journey from Odesa. That's the distance from Cornwall to the north coast of Spain.

[jimbob]

I can't see how a missile could have weaved its way between the bridges and struck so cleanly.

But then can't see how a drone boat could have travelled so far undetected. The bridge is 400 miles journey from Odesa. That's the distance from Cornwall to the north coast of Spain.

The daylight attack on Sevastopol with UAVs and USVs might make sense now. Any drones spotted on the way to there might have been thought to have been involved with that, and the 200 odd mile extra travel could fit with a reasonably slowish (so little wake) journey from that group

[Grumble]

I can't see how a missile could have weaved its way between the bridges and struck so cleanly.

But then can't see how a drone boat could have travelled so far undetected. The bridge is 400 miles journey from Odesa. That's the distance from Cornwall to the north coast of Spain.

Not so far from the north coast of Turkey. Who knows though?

[EACLucifer]

I can't see how a missile could have weaved its way between the bridges and struck so cleanly.

It's been known for missiles to sometimes go in through the entry hole of other missiles. In fact, in the First Gulf War, that was deliberately done in order to knock out a chemical works thought to be involved in yellowcake processing - the first missile blasted a hole in the side, the second went in and wrecked everything inside.

It doesn't say it was a missile, but a Storm Shadow has the accuracy to be aimed between the two bridges to hit the pier. At the moment I think the evidence favours the drone boat, which can also carry a significantly bigger charge. Storm Shadow would be aiming to drop the bridge by shattering the pier, a drone boat can carry a warhead big enough to lift the spans off their supports by sheer blast effect.

But then can't see how a drone boat could have travelled so far undetected. The bridge is 400 miles journey from Odesa. That's the distance from Cornwall to the north coast of Spain.

I think Jimbob might be on the money on this one.

[lpm]

An old favourite, worth trotting out again.

[Woodchopper]

I can't see how a missile could have weaved its way between the bridges and struck so cleanly.

But then can't see how a drone boat could have travelled so far undetected. The bridge is 400 miles journey from Odesa. That's the distance from Cornwall to the north coast of Spain.

The daylight attack on Sevastopol with UAVs and USVs might make sense now. Any drones spotted on the way to there might have been thought to have been involved with that, and the 200 odd mile extra travel could fit with a reasonably slowish (so little wake) journey from that group

That’s a possibility. Another is that the drone was launched from a larger vessel in the Black Sea (perhaps a yacht). Could even have been launched from the Sea of Azov, as Ukrainian intelligence has been able to infiltrate into Russian occupied areas.

[lpm]

I can't see how a missile could have weaved its way between the bridges and struck so cleanly.

But then can't see how a drone boat could have travelled so far undetected. The bridge is 400 miles journey from Odesa. That's the distance from Cornwall to the north coast of Spain.

The daylight attack on Sevastopol with UAVs and USVs might make sense now. Any drones spotted on the way to there might have been thought to have been involved with that, and the 200 odd mile extra travel could fit with a reasonably slowish (so little wake) journey from that group

That’s a possibility. Another is that the drone was launched from a larger vessel in the Black Sea (perhaps a yacht). Could even have been launched from the Sea of Azov, as Ukrainian intelligence has been able to infiltrate into Russian occupied areas.

These things must be big and heavy? Or am I imagining them wrong? I can't see them sneaking a complicated machine across occupied territory.

Would be 100x easier to launch from land than from another boat?

[dyqik]

I would guess that they are recreational motorboat sized things (e.g. think about the prizes won by the darts players from Wolverhampton on Bullseye )

Those can easily be launched from a naval vessel or large yacht with the cranes that are installed for the purpose of launching small boats.

[Martin Y]

The bridge appears to have been attacked at a section where both road and rail are at low level, rather than the elevated part in the middle. That rather supports the idea it was attacked from below by a drone boat. If you dropped a missile onto it from above you would have the option of attacking the tall centre piers which would be more work to repair.

[EACLucifer]

The bridge appears to have been attacked at a section where both road and rail are at low level, rather than the elevated part in the middle. That rather supports the idea it was attacked from below by a drone boat. If you dropped a missile onto it from above you would have the option of attacking the tall centre piers which would be more work to repair.

Whereas the low sections are more vulnerable to blast from a surface drone's warhead. Drone boats definitely the leading theory at this point.