Re: Getting Brexit done
Posted: Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:26 pm
it’s not really focused on services though, they’re only mentioned briefly. Dunt is almost entirely talking about goods here.sheldrake wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:06 pmThe claim that leaving the EU has any significant impact on services, IBM given as an example, is untrue.
The author of the article cannot cite a single specific example of any regulation which be believes will hamper trade in services after we leave.
This is a clumsy scare story with no substance.
Then Dunt will need to spend some time studying how non-EU goods already enter the EU.plodder wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:07 pmit’s not really focused on services though, they’re only mentioned briefly. Dunt is almost entirely talking about goods here.sheldrake wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:06 pmThe claim that leaving the EU has any significant impact on services, IBM given as an example, is untrue.
The author of the article cannot cite a single specific example of any regulation which be believes will hamper trade in services after we leave.
This is a clumsy scare story with no substance.
I look forward to reading your deconstruction of it.sheldrake wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:39 amThe article is hysterical drivel. The writing style is breathlessly adolescent.plodder wrote: ↑Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:39 pmWow.Gfamily wrote: ↑Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:21 pmWhat happens next - analysis by Ian Dunt
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/0 ... son-s-trad
There are very few claims in the article specific enough to engage with, if you parse it carefully you'll note that yourself. The piece is composed entirely of appeals to personal incredulity. It's clumsy fear-spreading propaganda whose only effect is to reassure and rally a dwindling band of people whose opinion on this matter is increasingly irrelevant.
He mentioned the oft-quoted example of cars with components sourced from multiple countries and manufactured in a number of process stages in several countries. Are you saying that similar production chains exist where manufactured goods make multiple moves in and out of the EU as easily as they can between EU members? That would certainly reassure a lot of people in the car industry.
Yeah. It's not like adding extra costs to your supply chain would affect the viability of your existing business.Martin Y wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:01 pmHe mentioned the oft-quoted example of cars with components sourced from multiple countries and manufactured in a number of process stages in several countries. Are you saying that similar production chains exist where manufactured goods make multiple moves in and out of the EU as easily as they can between EU members? That would certainly reassure a lot of people in the car industry.
rather than some random pricks on the internetDavid Bailey, professor of Business Economics at the Birmingham Business School
Meredith Crowley, international trade economist at the University of Cambridge
Piet Eeckhout, EU law professor and dean at the UCL Faculty of Laws
Andrew Kuyk, policy lead at the UK Seafood Industry Alliance
Philip McCann, professor of Urban and Regional Economics at Sheffield University Management School
Thomas Sampson, assistant professor in the Department of Economics at the LSE
Uta Staiger, executive director of the UCL European Institute
...and others in London and Brussels who chose not to be named.
And when you are talking about modern supply chains for, say automotive customers, it's the security of timely supply that is even more important.
Any political position can find industry lobbyists and academics-for-rent to support it. The non-predictions in this bit of whiney journalism are no different.El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:16 pmIt's not a good article, is it? It'd have been better if it was written with the input of experts such as
David Bailey, professor of Business Economics at the Birmingham Business School
Meredith Crowley, international trade economist at the University of Cambridge
Piet Eeckhout, EU law professor and dean at the UCL Faculty of Laws
Andrew Kuyk, policy lead at the UK Seafood Industry Alliance
Philip McCann, professor of Urban and Regional Economics at Sheffield University Management School
Thomas Sampson, assistant professor in the Department of Economics at the LSE
Uta Staiger, executive director of the UCL European Institute
...and others in London and Brussels who chose not to be named.
Electronic goods use non-EU produced components and materials all the time.Martin Y wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:01 pmHe mentioned the oft-quoted example of cars with components sourced from multiple countries and manufactured in a number of process stages in several countries. Are you saying that similar production chains exist where manufactured goods make multiple moves in and out of the EU as easily as they can between EU members? That would certainly reassure a lot of people in the car industry.
The plant in Portugal will face stiff tariffs to get its parts into a Toyota driven by UK consumers if the EU doesnt do a deal.veravista wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:09 pmToyota Auris production line stoppage at Burnaston costs just over £1,000,000 an hour. If it stops the Avensis line that's a bit more expensive. That's the reason they source most components from multiple sources, a few from the UK but mostly EU.
Also the reason they have an oven ready replica plant in Portugal
Where did Veravista or I talk about tariffs? Oh yes, I did to specifically say that they weren't the main problem.sheldrake wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:16 pmThe plant in Portugal will face stiff tariffs to get its parts into a Toyota driven by UK consumers if the EU doesnt do a deal.veravista wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:09 pmToyota Auris production line stoppage at Burnaston costs just over £1,000,000 an hour. If it stops the Avensis line that's a bit more expensive. That's the reason they source most components from multiple sources, a few from the UK but mostly EU.
Also the reason they have an oven ready replica plant in Portugal
We'll be the only major European country that's able to charge tariffs on vehicles made by significantly cheaper labour in Eastern Europe if that is the game. This is not a game Germany is interested in playing.
I dont think my point came across clearly; we can impose tariffs quite easily if the EU is difficult and conjours up spurious parts compliance issues where one would expect mutual recognition. It's the default position for anybody who doesnt have a trade deal with us. We are a significant market for EU-made cars. They know this.jimbob wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:30 pmWhere did Veravista or I talk about tariffs? Oh yes, I did to specifically say that they weren't the main problem.sheldrake wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:16 pmThe plant in Portugal will face stiff tariffs to get its parts into a Toyota driven by UK consumers if the EU doesnt do a deal.veravista wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:09 pmToyota Auris production line stoppage at Burnaston costs just over £1,000,000 an hour. If it stops the Avensis line that's a bit more expensive. That's the reason they source most components from multiple sources, a few from the UK but mostly EU.
Also the reason they have an oven ready replica plant in Portugal
We'll be the only major European country that's able to charge tariffs on vehicles made by significantly cheaper labour in Eastern Europe if that is the game. This is not a game Germany is interested in playing.
It's everything else that makes up a frictionless trading environment, where friction, especially unpredictable friction like unpredictable customs delays that cause the risk of linestop situations.
Certainly. I recognise that the EU imports stuff. I take it you couldn't think of an example of a production process which moves in and out of the EU like UK car production does.sheldrake wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:20 pmElectronic goods use non-EU produced components and materials all the time.Martin Y wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:01 pmHe mentioned the oft-quoted example of cars with components sourced from multiple countries and manufactured in a number of process stages in several countries. Are you saying that similar production chains exist where manufactured goods make multiple moves in and out of the EU as easily as they can between EU members? That would certainly reassure a lot of people in the car industry.
"Services" is not just someone sitting in London doing some writing and e-mailing the results to Germany. It relies on movement of people. Look at the percentage of the workers in UK software businesses who are EU nationals. IT has a high turnover rate, so these people will need to be replaced by other workers who might also want to bring in their partners or small children. Until now they could do that with EU rules, where the answer was basically "yes", especially since the UK didn't even enforce the minimal "support yourself" requirements; but after Brexit the list of rules will be designed to keep the Tory heartlands happy, which will mean more hoops than a lot of people are willing to jump through. Of course, the UK could sign a free trade deal with India and give a couple of hundred thousand visas to IT workers from there... that would definitely go down well with the people who voted for Brexit because of people speaking Polish on the bus.sheldrake wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:06 pmThe claim that leaving the EU has any significant impact on services, IBM given as an example, is untrue.
The author of the article cannot cite a single specific example of any regulation which be believes will hamper trade in services after we leave.
This is a clumsy scare story with no substance.
Bah. We’ve had enough of experts. What do they know that some random on the internet with an agenda doesn’t know better?El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:16 pmIt's not a good article, is it? It'd have been better if it was written with the input of experts such as
rather than some random pricks on the internetDavid Bailey, professor of Business Economics at the Birmingham Business School
Meredith Crowley, international trade economist at the University of Cambridge
Piet Eeckhout, EU law professor and dean at the UCL Faculty of Laws
Andrew Kuyk, policy lead at the UK Seafood Industry Alliance
Philip McCann, professor of Urban and Regional Economics at Sheffield University Management School
Thomas Sampson, assistant professor in the Department of Economics at the LSE
Uta Staiger, executive director of the UCL European Institute
...and others in London and Brussels who chose not to be named.