Scrutable

shpalman wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:18 pm

No new Covid restrictions before Christmas, Boris Johnson confirms

Ministers will not introduce any new Covid restrictions before Christmas in England, Boris Johnson has confirmed, saying there is not a high enough pile of bodies to justify tougher measures.

Wasn't it the case over the summer that Wednesdays were the "f.cking hell" day for case numbers?

shpalman wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:18 pm

<snip>
Wasn't it the case over the summer that Wednesdays were the "f.cking hell" day for case numbers?

At 21/12 fit = 88391.7 with doubling time = 13.1 days. That time halving in 16.0 days 

Analysis of Variance Table

Response: log(PubCases)
              Df  Sum Sq Mean Sq  F value    Pr(>F)    
poly(date, 2)  2 2.78537 1.39268 168.5722 < 2.2e-16 ***
day            6 0.20343 0.03390   4.1039  0.003486 ** 
Residuals     33 0.27263 0.00826                       
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Coefficients:
               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)    10.72471    0.03713 288.865  < 2e-16 ***
poly(date, 2)1  1.56332    0.09216  16.964  < 2e-16 ***
poly(date, 2)2  0.70616    0.09093   7.766 6.01e-09 ***
dayMon          0.09302    0.05249   1.772 0.085621 .  
dayTue          0.02999    0.05254   0.571 0.571920    
dayWed          0.11780    0.05269   2.236 0.032265 *  
dayThu          0.19741    0.05260   3.753 0.000674 ***
dayFri          0.19247    0.05253   3.664 0.000864 ***
daySat          0.06792    0.05249   1.294 0.204678    
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 0.09089 on 33 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.9164

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:03 am

Just heard someone who I think was a clergy person - on the radio - saying they were going ahead with their superspreader event (sorry - Christmas choir concert) and they weren't worried about the choir transmitting the virus while singing - because "they are all highly trained singers - and what comes out is mostly sound".

FlammableFlower wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:43 pm

Government announces that the isolation time is reducing from 10 days to 7 days.

UKHSA staff find out... via BBC news...

UKHSA, the people that are supposed to be part of the policy loop. What, with the Speaker's complaints about press release over announcements in parliament, it definitely seems Johnson has just decided to govern by press conference.

FlammableFlower wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:43 pm

Government announces that the isolation time is reducing from 10 days to 7 days.

UKHSA staff find out... via BBC news...

UKHSA, the people that are supposed to be part of the policy loop. What, with the Speaker's complaints about press release over announcements in parliament, it definitely seems Johnson has just decided to govern by press conference.

headshot wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:30 am

To answer the OP’s question: Frau HS and my Christmas is now ruined.

Saxony is in a really bad place (over 2000 cases per 100k in the Erzgebirge region) which see no signs of changing in the short-medium term. The in-laws aren’t very keen on us travelling through Frankfurt to get there then spending full days inside their home. Our accommodation might not even be allowed to open anyway. And all the fun things we had planned (Christmas market, ice skating etc) are not possible because it’s all been cancelled.

So Christmas at home it is…

I was really looking forward to getting out of Little England for a bit too. Ugh.