US Election

[dyqik]

I guess we're going to get some experimental evidence for how much of Trump's base would transfer allegiance to Pence.

Pence is flying to Arizona (despite being exposed to CoVID-19 within the past week) to do one of Trump's rallies.

[dyqik]

Dupe.

[dyqik]

The North Carolina Senate race is having a crazy day.

Cal Cunningham (D) has been sending sexytime texts to a married lady who is not his married lady.
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/polit ... 91610.html

Thom Tillis (R) has been enplagued by the White House superspreaders and tested positive.

Currently Cunningham at +3 per 538
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -carolina/

Oh ffs

+1

Excellent day to bury this kind of news, mind.

[dyqik]

You have to wonder at the kind of man who decides to run for election knowing he has that kind of thing going on.

How f.cking stupid do you have to be.

[Grumble]

You have to wonder at the kind of man who decides to run for election knowing he has that kind of thing going on.

How f.cking stupid do you have to be.

Narcissism is not confined to the White House.

[Grumble]

I guess we're going to get some experimental evidence for how much of Trump's base would transfer allegiance to Pence.

Pence is flying to Arizona (despite being exposed to CoVID-19 within the past week) to do one of Trump's rallies.

And how much the news that non-mask wearing Trump has contracted COVID affects his non-mask wearing fans.

[bjn]

You have to wonder at the kind of man who decides to run for election knowing he has that kind of thing going on.

How f.cking stupid do you have to be.

Kennedy and Clinton were both medal winning extra marital shaggers and got away with it.

[jimbob]

Oh ffs

What have I missed *now*?

[dyqik]

You have to wonder at the kind of man who decides to run for election knowing he has that kind of thing going on.

How f.cking stupid do you have to be.

Kennedy and Clinton were both medal winning extra marital shaggers and got away with it.

Yeah, but not in the time of records of electronic communications stored in a worldwide network.

[dyqik]

USC Dornsife took its tracking poll offline this morning to fix a technical error. It's now back up, and showing Biden steadily gaining rather than losing ground. Switched from +7 to +10.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Oh ffs

What have I missed *now*?

The thing in the post immediately above that

[dyqik]

Oh ffs

What have I missed *now*?

The thing in the post immediately above that

Yeah, but by the time people read your post, 5 minutes after you make it, there's three more candidates.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Bet you they'll still f.cking win it. And because of Florida as well.

[jimbob]

Oh ffs

What have I missed *now*?

The thing in the post immediately above that

Ah, yes. How does that play in NC?

You have to wonder at the kind of man who decides to run for election knowing he has that kind of thing going on.

How f.cking stupid do you have to be.

Narcissism is not confined to the White House.

[Vertigowooyay]

You have to wonder at the kind of man who decides to run for election knowing he has that kind of thing going on.

How f.cking stupid do you have to be.

Kennedy and Clinton were both medal winning extra marital shaggers and got away with it.

Yeah, but not in the time of records of electronic communications stored in a worldwide network.

*sighs wistfully for the old days when you had to physically keep hold of the semen stained dress...*

[lpm]

Scenario 1:

Trump dead They Weekend at Bernie's him. Keep tweeting mad crap. Nobody can tell the difference.

Probability: highly unlikely

Scenario 2:

Trump dead. Pence sworn in. Moments later he's caught on video receiving a blow job from Randy Rainbow. He resigns, Pelosi is president.

Probability: quite unlikely

Scenario 3:

Trump dead. Pence sworn in. War breaks out over who should be official Republican candidate in November. Everyone assumes it would be Pence, but would it? The Trumpists never liked Pence, they just liked to exploit him. To protect themselves they need a Trump - so does Ivanka make a play for the candidacy? What about Nikki Haley? They had wanted to replace Pence with Haley on the ticket. Could Ivanka fantasise about a sympathy vote giving her the win? Seeing as November is an almost certain loss, the other players should rationally leave it to Pence to lose, but these are not rational people.

Probability: unlikely

Scenario 4:

Trump dead. President Pence is swiftly confirmed as the candidate and the Trumpists try to get their cult to back him. Pence has almost as bad unfavourability ratings as Trump, but that's probably meaningless for when he's not in Trump's shadow. Does he get a swift honeymoon and a statesman's aura when presiding over Trump's funeral? Bring Haley onto the ticket? Biden's age becomes a problem, plus he was basically picked to take on Trump.

Pence's Covid failure is as bad, however, with loads of footage of him maskless at superspreader events. And fundamentally he's a nasty piece of work who women voters hate. Most likely is it carries on to a solid election loss with low enthusiasm levels among the cult outweighing the return of traditional conservatives.

Probability: Possible

Scenario 5:

Trump ill-health resigns. Cuts a deal with Pence for a federal pardon, in return for promising to rally his cult behind Pence? This looks attractive - he's going to lose, knows he's going to lose, knows he's not close enough to rig or dispute the results. Problems are it doesn't solve his state legal issues and doesn't pardon Ivanka (or Jr & Eric, but he doesn't give a damn about them). But he probably could expect to fend off state charges, particularly if he pretends to still be ill and spins it as an vindictive attack. Trouble is, he's bankrupt. Will his cult step up and fund his years of legal costs?

Probability: Quite likely

Scenario 6:

Trump carries on, no matter what his condition is. Campaigns via twitter, still tries to raise money that he can fraudulently divert to himself. Perhaps he's so out of touch with reality, he think he can get close enough to claim a win. Doses himself up with adderall and makes triumphant returns to the stage, hoping he's not going to fall over or sh.t his pants. Cultists love that he's owned the libs by not being dead. Christian extremists brand it a miracle and rename him Lazarus. Everyone else still thinks he's an idiot.

Probabliity: Most likely

[lpm]

NBC/WSJ poll
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-t ... r-n1242018

Post debate
Pre Covid announcement

Biden +14

Very strong polling for Biden in the seniors category, plus the usual strong polling from women voters.

[Bird on a Fire]

Conspiracy theory: anyone can become The Donald, simply by putting on a cursed wooden mask of uncertain origins.

In addition to the visible effects of mask-wearing - an orangey tinge to the skin, with noticeable eye-holes, ear holes, and stopping short of the hairline - it it causes progressively debilitating physical weakening and mental derangement.

As the current Donald weakens, a successor, possibly groomed from birth, will be waiting in the wings to prise the mask from his gasping face and press it to their own. "Somebody stop me!" they shout, as the previous Donald crumbles to dust.

The Donald emerges, reinvigorated, if anything stronger than he's seemed in years. The mask consumes another host.

[dyqik]

Yougov have been polling the horserace for Trump/Biden, Pence/Biden and Pence/Harris.

Pence does one point better than Trump against Biden, although with more undecideds.

[Little waster]

Yougov have been polling the horserace for Trump/Biden, Pence/Biden and Pence/Harris.

Pence does one point better than Trump against Biden, although with more undecideds.

I suppose the interesting comparison would be Biden vs A Generic Republican (the Third) to see if Pence on the ticket is a net positive or negative.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Something I hadn't spotted is that Kansas appears to be quite competitive, certainly more than I'd've expected anyway. Overall, let's be honest, Trump is going to win, but by less than I'd expect.

In the Senate race, though, Barbara Bollier (D) appears to be neck and neck with Roger Marshall (R), not least because a third candidate (Jason Buckley, Libertarian) appears to be leaching 2-7 points from Marshall. In polls where Buckley features, Bollier appears to be even or ahead. Bonkers.

[dyqik]

Something I hadn't spotted is that Kansas appears to be quite competitive, certainly more than I'd've expected anyway. Overall, let's be honest, Trump is going to win, but by less than I'd expect.

In the Senate race, though, Barbara Bollier (D) appears to be neck and neck with Roger Marshall (R), not least because a third candidate (Jason Buckley, Libertarian) appears to be leaching 2-7 points from Marshall. In polls where Buckley features, Bollier appears to be even or ahead. Bonkers.

3rd party candidates rarely get up to their polling numbers, but I don't know if that's due to lack of turnout of their supporters or just people coming home to the major party candidates.

[monkey]

Something I hadn't spotted is that Kansas appears to be quite competitive, certainly more than I'd've expected anyway. Overall, let's be honest, Trump is going to win, but by less than I'd expect.

In the Senate race, though, Barbara Bollier (D) appears to be neck and neck with Roger Marshall (R), not least because a third candidate (Jason Buckley, Libertarian) appears to be leaching 2-7 points from Marshall. In polls where Buckley features, Bollier appears to be even or ahead. Bonkers.

3rd party candidates rarely get up to their polling numbers, but I don't know if that's due to lack of turnout of their supporters or just people coming home to the major party candidates.

Bit of both, I reckon. Might be different with the increase of postal voting this year, though. In addition, it might be an error due to how the polling companies pick their samples.

[geejaytee]

IIRC, Trump's support amongst African-American men in the 2016 campaign fluctuated wildly for one pollster as that particular stratification in their sample consisted of n people with n much less than 20.

[EACLucifer]

Polls on Cal Cunningham suggest that most people who have heard the story aren't planning to let it affect their vote. Independents are most likely to have heard about it, but he's leading with them heavily anyway.

ETA His position has actually improved slightly in this poll, leading 48-42, whereas in july that was 48-44