Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

The logistics outcome is obvious, surely? It can't be done.

Therefore Russia has to withdraw from the west side.

Either do it now, or do it when you're half way to disaster, or do it when disaster has happened.

It's already too late to evacuate heavy equipment. You've seen the picture I posted of the Kakhovsky bridges over the canal lock. Well aside from that, there's the Antonovsky Road Bridge, which has been hit so many times that one end of one span hasn't got any uncratered conrete, and the Antonovsky Railway Bridge, which has a massive chunk taken out of one side such that a tank probably couldn't fit along the other side of the span, before we even get in to the issues of weight bearing capacity. Tanks are heavy - 40+ tonnes, even for old Warsaw Pact tanks.

It's amazing how rational people can see how something ends, yet carry on with the status quo regardless. It's a deep-seated human flaw. Can't bear to take a small loss now even when you're certain that means a huge loss later. Russia is doing something akin to climate denial.

Indeed, and they did so when they rushed in more troops to hold the line west of the Dnipro even after Ukraine proved they could hit both bridges with GMLRS, and the Antonovsky with tube artillery.

What I want to know is why do they appear to be using conventional warheads rather than concrete piercing ones? Most of the weight of the M31's warhead is fragments. Replace that with a penetrator and give it a delay fuse, and it will kill conrete structures much more effectively. And don't give me the "but there isn't a concrete-piercing warhead for GMLRS" spiel - the GBU-28 guided bunker buster went from idea to design to manufacture to deployment in combat in less than three weeks, and rapid design and manufacturer is easier now than it was in 1991.

[Martin Y]

Leaving them a viable footbridge to evacuate over but which can no longer carry heavy equipment might be the idea result for Ukraine.

Trap them and they have to fight. Capture them and you have a burden of POWs, without significantly diminishing Russia's pool of troops. Let them walk away and you gain a load of captured equipment and they get a load of soldiers who have experienced defeat.

[EACLucifer]

Leaving them a viable footbridge to evacuate over but which can no longer carry heavy equipment might be the idea result for Ukraine.

Trap them and they have to fight. Capture them and you have a burden of POWs, without significantly diminishing Russia's pool of troops. Let them walk away and you gain a load of captured equipment and they get a load of soldiers who have experienced defeat.

No, POWs are a useful resource. They can - especially from the Kherson front - be easily sent to Lviv or the Carpathians to get them out of the way, but they offer enormous leverage, and they can be exchanged to free Ukrainian POWs/other prisoners.

Additionally, footage of thousands of POWs would be a powerful statement to the world that Ukraine can win, and would help bring in more military aid.

[TopBadger]

Can do both...

Those that surrender should be well looked after, allowed to call home, all that good stuff to show surrender is a good option.

Those that retreat to fight another day should be pounded to smithereens on the east bank.

[EACLucifer]

What I don't get is why we aren't seeing things like this re: the Kakhovsky and Antonovsky bridges.



And it will be interesting to see if Ukraine are able to restore the crossings later with approaches like this. So long as the piers are intact, covering a damaged span with an MGB - which the west can provide - is a viable approach.

[EACLucifer]

Speaking of bridges, the Russians have a pontoon bridge over the Inhulets right now.



In a bit of a dick move, I'm not crediting the source, because the source in question never credits anyone else. Indeed, I suspect as I catch up with other sources, I'll find an earlier example of this image.

This is not over the Dnipro. It does not bring supplies into right-bank Kherson. It does, however, allow them to move supplies within that area, which is otherwise bisected by the Inhulets. The Inhulets isn't the hardest river to cross, easier in most places than the Siverskiy Donets, let alone the Dnipro, but it does stop the easy movement of large quantities of supplies or heavy equipment.

[EACLucifer]

A lot of fog of war right now, but it looks like Ukraine is conducting offensives in several directions now.

At the northern end of the Kherson front, Vysokopillya has definitely been liberated, and it looks like Novovoznesens'ke has been too. The Ukrainians are advancing. It is possible the Russians have fallen back on a secondary line, but it is also possible that this advance has formed a salient into the roughly east-west aligned frontline in this area.

In the centre of the Kherson front is the bridgehead across the Inhulets. Dramatic footage has emerged of tanks and MRAPs assaulting the village of Kostromka (not linking it, but anyone who says the tank is obsolete as a concept should look for it and learn). The overall size of the bridgehead is not clear, but it is in a threatening position, as it could have potentially already cut direct road routes to the Russian positions at Davydiv Brid, and more generally threatens all their supply lines to the north of the front.

Further south in Kherson, Ukraine has possibly advanced as far as Shmidtove. This would bisect the Russian line in the area. I've previously mentioned the concept of capturing a position the enemy cannot tolerate the capture of, and this would be a good example. The Russians have to counterattack, as if they don't, the Ukrainian troops could potentially start encircling Russian positions.

I was surprised when the Ukrainians showed up in Ozerne, north of the Siverskiy Donets in the vicinity of Slovyansk. Now it appears they've been in Staryi Karavan, a little to the west of Ozerne, too. This is probably still just raiding, but it's a bad sign for the Russians if the Ukrainians can cross the Siverskiy Donets at will - and there's footage of them doing just that, returning on a small boat in broad daylight under no sort of fire whatsoever. To counter this raiding, Russia would have to position troops along the river, which they are desperately short of. Worse for them, if Ukraine get into the habit of routinely crossing, then following that up with a pontoon bridge and heavy forces is possible. The Russian crossings at Bilohorivka were so disastrous because they were promptly countered with artillery and airstrikes. If the Russians aren't even noticing Ukrainian crossings, then they could be in for a surprise.

And then finally, speaking of surprises, there's south-west of Kharkiv. Here, the Ukrainians have apparently achieved operational surprise with an offensive. Some sources even talk about the capture of Balakliya. I don't know how true that is yet. If it is true, then some Russian positions just south of that town are in real danger of encirclement. An advance in this area could also allow Ukraine to gain fire control over all the supply lines west of the Oskil river, and to directly shell the bridges over that river. This would strangle the Russian supply lines into Izium. However, if the Ukrainians have advanced even to the outskirts of Balakliya, a Russian counter-attack should be expected.

I'll leave you with this iconic picture from Vysokopillya, taken just a few days ago.

[jimbob]

A lot of fog of war right now, but it looks like Ukraine is conducting offensives in several directions now.

At the northern end of the Kherson front, Vysokopillya has definitely been liberated, and it looks like Novovoznesens'ke has been too. The Ukrainians are advancing. It is possible the Russians have fallen back on a secondary line, but it is also possible that this advance has formed a salient into the roughly east-west aligned frontline in this area.

In the centre of the Kherson front is the bridgehead across the Inhulets. Dramatic footage has emerged of tanks and MRAPs assaulting the village of Kostromka (not linking it, but anyone who says the tank is obsolete as a concept should look for it and learn). The overall size of the bridgehead is not clear, but it is in a threatening position, as it could have potentially already cut direct road routes to the Russian positions at Davydiv Brid, and more generally threatens all their supply lines to the north of the front.

Further south in Kherson, Ukraine has possibly advanced as far as Shmidtove. This would bisect the Russian line in the area. I've previously mentioned the concept of capturing a position the enemy cannot tolerate the capture of, and this would be a good example. The Russians have to counterattack, as if they don't, the Ukrainian troops could potentially start encircling Russian positions.

I was surprised when the Ukrainians showed up in Ozerne, north of the Siverskiy Donets in the vicinity of Slovyansk. Now it appears they've been in Staryi Karavan, a little to the west of Ozerne, too. This is probably still just raiding, but it's a bad sign for the Russians if the Ukrainians can cross the Siverskiy Donets at will - and there's footage of them doing just that, returning on a small boat in broad daylight under no sort of fire whatsoever. To counter this raiding, Russia would have to position troops along the river, which they are desperately short of. Worse for them, if Ukraine get into the habit of routinely crossing, then following that up with a pontoon bridge and heavy forces is possible. The Russian crossings at Bilohorivka were so disastrous because they were promptly countered with artillery and airstrikes. If the Russians aren't even noticing Ukrainian crossings, then they could be in for a surprise.

And then finally, speaking of surprises, there's south-west of Kharkiv. Here, the Ukrainians have apparently achieved operational surprise with an offensive. Some sources even talk about the capture of Balakliya. I don't know how true that is yet. If it is true, then some Russian positions just south of that town are in real danger of encirclement. An advance in this area could also allow Ukraine to gain fire control over all the supply lines west of the Oskil river, and to directly shell the bridges over that river. This would strangle the Russian supply lines into Izium. However, if the Ukrainians have advanced even to the outskirts of Balakliya, a Russian counter-attack should be expected.

I'll leave you with this iconic picture from Vysokopillya, taken just a few days ago.

There is footage of at least one Russian supply lorry having been destroyed by small arms fire.

I don't think it's geolocated, but that suggests Ukrainian infantry (or special forces) are where the Russians had planned for logistics routes.

[EACLucifer]

There is footage of at least one Russian supply lorry having been destroyed by small arms fire.

I don't think it's geolocated, but that suggests Ukrainian infantry (or special forces) are where the Russians had planned for logistics routes.

That, or partisans.

There's talk now of Balakliya being encircled, I've seen pro-Ukrainian claims of the liberation of Yakovenkove, and Pro-Russian sources are talking about the Ukrainians taking Volokhiv Yar, too. That creates a broad front, and immediately threatens the the vital junction in supply lines at Vesele and in the longer term threatens Russia's hold on Kup'yans'k, and the whole area they hold west of the Oskil River.

If these turn out to be accurate reports, and if the ground taken can be held, then it's the largest rapid capture of territory since the Russian collapse in the north back in the spring.

[jimbob]

There is footage of at least one Russian supply lorry having been destroyed by small arms fire.

I don't think it's geolocated, but that suggests Ukrainian infantry (or special forces) are where the Russians had planned for logistics routes.

That, or partisans.

There's talk now of Balakliya being encircled, I've seen pro-Ukrainian claims of the liberation of Yakovenkove, and Pro-Russian sources are talking about the Ukrainians taking Volokhiv Yar, too. That creates a broad front, and immediately threatens the the vital junction in supply lines at Vesele and in the longer term threatens Russia's hold on Kup'yans'k, and the whole area they hold west of the Oskil River.

If these turn out to be accurate reports, and if the ground taken can be held, then it's the largest rapid capture of territory since the Russian collapse in the north back in the spring.

Found the picture

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... S9dIxW7G1w

It wasn't just the small arms fire, but also that someone felt secure enough photographing it and uploading to social media.

[jimbob]

https://youtu.be/gstgGD-0bdY

Can't vouch for the veracity of this but if it is true, a lot of the Russian troops are officially still in Russia, so they are not getting paid combat bonus (or possibly anything).

Lots of poor morale and blaming Putin..

[jimbob]

Meanwhile,



https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/15 ... Rfk6dM_0ww

Aric Toler
@AricToler
Yesterday, Russian propaganda channels (notably the infamous Pozdyankov) posted a video showing "dead" Ukrainian troops on a river bank. Today, a Ukrainian channel posted the full video, showing the "dead" soldiers all stand up. They sent a fake video to Russians as a joke.

8:46 PM · Sep 6, 2022
·TweetDeck

[El Pollo Diablo]

How realistic is it that Ukraine could retake Crimea?

[Woodchopper]

There's talk now of Balakliya being encircled, I've seen pro-Ukrainian claims of the liberation of Yakovenkove, and Pro-Russian sources are talking about the Ukrainians taking Volokhiv Yar, too. That creates a broad front, and immediately threatens the the vital junction in supply lines at Vesele and in the longer term threatens Russia's hold on Kup'yans'k, and the whole area they hold west of the Oskil River.

If these turn out to be accurate reports, and if the ground taken can be held, then it's the largest rapid capture of territory since the Russian collapse in the north back in the spring.

Suggestion about Ukranian strategy there: https://twitter.com/noclador/status/156 ... 5jL0b9P-wg

[Woodchopper]

How realistic is it that Ukraine could retake Crimea?

Possible to attack it but would be difficult and involve heavy Ukrainian losses. Germany was able to take it in WW2.

More realistic is that Ukraine would prevent Russia resupplying its troops based there and attack them with artillery, missiles and aircraft, and wait the Russians to surrender.

[jimbob]

How realistic is it that Ukraine could retake Crimea?

Possible to attack it but would be difficult and involve heavy Ukrainian losses. Germany was able to take it in WW2.

More realistic is that Ukraine would prevent Russia resupplying its troops based there and attack them with artillery, missiles and aircraft, and wait the Russians to surrender.

Isn't that one reason why Russia had to try to keep Kherson? Not to hold Crimea, but so that its water supply allowed it to be viable?

[Woodchopper]

How realistic is it that Ukraine could retake Crimea?

Possible to attack it but would be difficult and involve heavy Ukrainian losses. Germany was able to take it in WW2.

More realistic is that Ukraine would prevent Russia resupplying its troops based there and attack them with artillery, missiles and aircraft, and wait the Russians to surrender.

Isn't that one reason why Russia had to try to keep Kherson? Not to hold Crimea, but so that its water supply allowed it to be viable?

The canal is on the south side of the Dnipro, but holding the north bank would help to protect it.

But it depends what we mean by viable. Ukraine blocked water flowing into Crimea following the 2014 occupation. This severely affected agriculture on the peninsula but but there was enough water for the rest of the population. Crimean farmers probably aren't a high priority for either side.

[EACLucifer]

This is beginning to look like a rout east of Kharkiv. Russian positions in Izium do not look very secure right now. It seems the area was lightly held, and held mostly by Rosguardia and similar. According to Russian sources, in Balakliya, they didn't even know how to operate the heavy weaponry in the area. Lots of captured equipment, even WWII heavy AA guns, probably in a ground attack indirect fire role, or possibly even an anti-tank role.*

Lot of prisoners of war, too. This includes a lieutentant colonel. Haven't seen any high rankers captured since the early phase of the war, it indicates the Russians do not have a safe perimeter. Likewise, a division**'s flag was captured. It was their "Victory Flag" rather than their actual colours, but even so, it indicates collapse in the area.

And in the south, the Kakhovsky Rail bridge is clearly done for, which, along with the road bridge's earlier collapse, closes off that supply route. The Darivsky pontoon bridge was sunk, reportedly by fighter jets, so supplies to the area north of the Dnipro and east of the Inhulets look very difficult. There's footage of Russians trying to cross on a pontoon getting shelled. I very seriously recommend not seeking it out. In addition, there's evidence of strikes on vehicles queueing for the ferries. At this rate, they'll have to resort to trying to span the Dnipro with one of Putin's longest tables.


*Though one of the Baltic states - can't remember which - is sending some WWII American howitzers that were originally developed to replace the French 75 - aka the Model 1897 - old kit is still potentially deadly, and the M101 howitzer shares ammo with the L119.

**A Russian division is roughly equivalent to a western Brigade

[Woodchopper]

Translation of some Russian commentary on what’s happened east of Kharkiv: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... ZbzLy1PXUA

[EACLucifer]

Translation of some Russian commentary on what’s happened east of Kharkiv: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... ZbzLy1PXUA

It's a fascinating read, and some of it is quite unexpected. Most of us were expecting accelerated attrition, not armoured fists and rapid manoeuvre. One thing to consider, though, is the terrain. There's a lot of forest cover. There's been quite a bit of talk about Ukraine achieving surprise, and the use of forest cover is quite possibly a part of that, both to conceal forces from observation, but also to deaden the sound of the engines. Arestovych noted that the new tactics wouldn't work in Kherson, and the big difference in the terrain is the lack of forest cover there, as it's mostly steppe. One has to be confident of ones air defence to want to mass tanks, IFVs and APCs, but that's exactly what Ukraine are doing. There's footage of it out there.

If we compare this approach to older conflicts, a small, highly trained group going in quickly and quietly then breaking the defences open from within is really quite reminiscent of the "Hutier" Tactics - also called Stormtrooper Tactics - that the Germans used in the last year of WWI, and similar approaches were used by the entente, too. Additionally, there's talk of the Ukrainian lead elements bypassing and encircling Russian positions, with following elements then reducing them. That's how armoured manoeuvre warfare is meant to work, and it's what the Russians got so wrong early on.

It's still all very hard to track, though, I expect we'll learn a lot more about how this was achieved some time in the future.

[EACLucifer]

There is footage of at least one Russian supply lorry having been destroyed by small arms fire.

I don't think it's geolocated, but that suggests Ukrainian infantry (or special forces) are where the Russians had planned for logistics routes.

That, or partisans.

There's talk now of Balakliya being encircled, I've seen pro-Ukrainian claims of the liberation of Yakovenkove, and Pro-Russian sources are talking about the Ukrainians taking Volokhiv Yar, too. That creates a broad front, and immediately threatens the the vital junction in supply lines at Vesele and in the longer term threatens Russia's hold on Kup'yans'k, and the whole area they hold west of the Oskil River.

If these turn out to be accurate reports, and if the ground taken can be held, then it's the largest rapid capture of territory since the Russian collapse in the north back in the spring.

Found the picture

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... S9dIxW7G1w

It wasn't just the small arms fire, but also that someone felt secure enough photographing it and uploading to social media.

More of that sort of thing is occurring.

Suggests the frontline is sufficiently torn up that not everyone on the Russian side knows where it is.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Looks like Ukraine might be planning a Crimea offensive, or some form of widescale attack...

The weather forecast says it is going to be very hot in Crimea.
It's time for the rus invaders to prepare for a swim. It takes a lot of strength to swim to Sochi or Yeysk.
BTW the Guinness Book of World Records may include a new record for the longest open water swim.

[Grumble]

Looks like Ukraine might be planning a Crimea offensive, or some form of widescale attack...

The weather forecast says it is going to be very hot in Crimea.
It's time for the rus invaders to prepare for a swim. It takes a lot of strength to swim to Sochi or Yeysk.
BTW the Guinness Book of World Records may include a new record for the longest open water swim.

Maybe but it’s classic propaganda

[TopBadger]

Most of us were expecting accelerated attrition, not armoured fists and rapid manoeuvre.

Whilst underestimation of an adversary is dangerous - I think it's the case that Russian capabilities have been consistently overestimated during this conflict.

Perhaps we should be less surprised if their defenses collapse like a flan in a cupboard.

Lets all remember that, supplies aside, the Russians simply aren't motivated to be flighting in Ukraine and appear to lack the professionalism to even look out for each other.

[dyqik]

Looks like Ukraine might be planning a Crimea offensive, or some form of widescale attack...

The weather forecast says it is going to be very hot in Crimea.
It's time for the rus invaders to prepare for a swim. It takes a lot of strength to swim to Sochi or Yeysk.
BTW the Guinness Book of World Records may include a new record for the longest open water swim.

Maybe but it’s classic propaganda

Also useful to make the Russians think you are considering it, so they don't move forces from Crimea to Donbas, or throw everything into Donbas.