Scrutable

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/ ... qUEEpXYKbg

Russia is using shells made before the US fully entered the Vietnam War. The tweet says "1965" but I read it as 1964.

He corrects it in the next tweet

Central Kupyansk. Via Jimmysecuk

jimbob wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:50 pm

What sources do you all use?

I have a small selection of tweeters (I think most on my list here is generally reliable)

https://twitter.com/i/lists/1524102365036658690 and liveuamap.com

Seems like a sensible list. Telegram channels can be useful too, I use DeepStateUA, horevica and supernova_plus. One can view them in browser, and I do. They are generally in Ukrainian, but autotranslate's not too bad as long as you know what the obvious pitfalls are. I occasionally use Russian sources, but only to find out what they are thinking, if that makes sense.

Right now, for example, autotranslated text has a lot of mentions of raisins. That's because іІзюм literally translates as Raisins. There's also a tendency to translate equipment names (Soviet/Russian artillery is named after flowers, while AA systems are named after rivers), and there's a lot of memes and slang to look out for. Cotton, for example, refers to explosions on Russian held territory, as it's a pun on the phrasing Russian commentators use to downplay such events. Russians, meanwhile, are orcs*, vatniks* or katsaps*** most of the time.

The channels I mentioned are general analysis ones, and post a lot of the same sort of things as one gets on twitter, but often a bit earlier. It's important to note that the etiquette on Ukrainian telegram channels is a lot less squeamish about combat footage/aftermath than English-speaking twitter. Keep the sound off, and it is likely you will see stuff you would rather not see, especially if you go digging around for primary sources.



*The habit of referring to Russians as orcs actually started on the Russian side of things.
**term mocking Russian ultranationalists, I've seen it used by Russians as well as Ukrainians.
***ethnic slur, allegedly derived from a Turkic word for butcher.

I like the ones that are still posting about an individual APC captured somewhere. I mean, that's always nice, but it's somewhat missing the scale of this victory.

lpm wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:05 am

I like the ones that are still posting about an individual APC captured somewhere. I mean, that's always nice, but it's somewhat missing the scale of this victory.

The capture of a SAM system and a counterbattery radar is rather more indicative of the scale of the advance. They are high value assets that don't need to be right on the frontline, and thus should be kept behind the lines. Generally, during a retreat, they'd have no problems pulling back in an orderly fashion, except in an outright rout, like this one.

Likewise a lieutenant colonel was captured. Though he's the seventh man of that rank to be captured, he's the first in many months, and the most recent one prior to this was a shot down pilot.

These are both things that point to Ukrainian troops getting at what's meant to be the rear of Russian positions.

This advance will likely culminate at some point. Quite possibly soon. Stabilising on a frontline along the dammed section of the Oskil seems sensible, as that would allow Ukrainian units to catch their breath with Russian avenues for counterattack rather limited by geography. That said, this is going to buoy Ukrainian morale, hammer Russian morale, and also draw away even more reserves from other areas. It wouldn't be too surprising at this point to see a breakthrough in a different direction.

One potential negative implication of such quick captures of Kupyansk and Izyum; as with the Russian retreat from Kyiv, which did not yield large encirclements of huge quantities of POWs, it could well be that the advance was so quick in part because of Russian forces abandoning those positions. In which case, units may have escaped, albeit potentially with heavy losses, desertions and the loss of heavy equipment. We'll see.

Or the forces were spread so thin there isn't much to capture.

lpm wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:40 am

Or the forces were spread so thin there isn't much to capture.

That's certainly the case in some areas captured, but south of Izyum, the Russians were pushing at Ukrainian positions until very recently, even after the breakthrough around Balakliya. There were forces there, the question is whether or not they are still there - they could have been just south of the city, they could still be holding the city and Russian sources could be wrong, or they could still be holding part of it, or they could have retreated or broken and run, or they could have surrendered.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 5767488512

Dmitri
@wartranslated
Normal
2%
http://MK.ru, a big Russian news channel in their 9 September SMO summary says "Russians forces deploy reserves in Kharkiv Oblast to repel the advance of the AFU to... Balaklava".

But Balaklava is a district of Sevastopol, Crimea.

Funny little typo... or is it?

Seeing more and more reports that Izyum has been retaken by the Ukrainians.

Izyum is over. There seems to be a race eastwards from Lyman to Severodonetsk, Ukraine testing how far they can pursue the routed troops.

lpm wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:29 am

Izyum is over. There seems to be a race eastwards from Lyman to Severodonetsk, Ukraine testing how far they can pursue the routed troops.

They need to be aware of their own positions, and should seek to be in defensible positions when they run out of steam. We don't know how much steam they have; one hopes their own commanders do. Best assessments suggest that the force that had broken through here isn't the only such force. The question, if that is the case, is whether to reinforce this offensive, or find another weakpoint.

There's rumours of the Russians abandoning Lyman. If Ukraine keep parallel to the Seversky Donetsk, then they can flank Russian positions in the Donbas, while not getting too far from their own supplies. Despite Russian comments suggesting they are outrunning their artillery, that's not really that much of a thing these days. It isn't WWI where every breakthrough required immense shelling, yet the guns had to be moved by horses or Holt tractors. There's Krabs and PzH2000s going forward, even M270s. It also looks like the bridge south of Lyman is intact, albeit damaged, which is good news for Ukraine's GLOCs as they push eastwards.

If they do push further east, cutting supplies to more of the Russian positions is possible, though the last remaining rail route from the north is in GMLRS range already now. It would also be ideal to overrun retreating Russians and capture them.

Judging by the apparent morale of the Ukrainians, I don't think they want to stop until they are somewhere east of Novosibirsk.

One question.

I keep seeing memes equating "SAA" with the Russian MOD.

What is SAA in this case?

If the Russian army left Svatovo as this guy says on camera - and Svatovo is about 60 km from the nearest town taken over by Ukraine - this would be the first case of retreat long before even attempting to defend a long-held position. Something bigger must be brewing inside if so

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... zxKxGfndNg

If this is correct then we’re probably looking at a large scale withdrawal as we saw in the north of Ukraine a few months ago. They’d withdraw to more defensible positions and try to avoid encirclement and capture.

To bad for all the Russians who died taking land that they are now running from.

Ukraine maybe only sent a recce. Svatove is a bit of a crossroads. Russia needs to hold it.

Appears it's more likely that the Kupiansk force fled to Svatove, and they're referring to abandoning the Kupiansk positions.

jimbob wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:39 am

One question.

I keep seeing memes equating "SAA" with the Russian MOD.

What is SAA in this case?

Syrian Arab Army

The official name for the Assad regime's army. Evil, and incompetent.

For evil, there's things like the Tadamon massacre, their various chemical attacks, the barrel bombings and so on.

And for incompetent, on one occasion caught on camera they were so busy loading up stolen appliances onto their military truck that they completely ignored the SVBIED* as it passed them on the way to the centre of town.


*Suicide Vehicle Born Improvised Explosive Device - ie a big bomb in a car.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:42 am

If the Russian army left Svatovo as this guy says on camera - and Svatovo is about 60 km from the nearest town taken over by Ukraine - this would be the first case of retreat long before even attempting to defend a long-held position. Something bigger must be brewing inside if so

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... zxKxGfndNg

If this is correct then we’re probably looking at a large scale withdrawal as we saw in the north of Ukraine a few months ago. They’d withdraw to more defensible positions and try to avoid encirclement and capture.

To bad for all the Russians who died taking land that they are now running from.

A month to capture Izyum, and a day to lose it.

It's annoying Google maps doesn't have railways clearly shown.

lpm wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 10, 2022 12:02 pm

It's annoying Google maps doesn't have railways clearly shown.

Two things are immediately clear; the first is the significance of Kupyansk, the second is how difficult it will be to cut off Russian rail access to the southeastern side of the Donbas.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:51 am

jimbob wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:39 am

One question.

I keep seeing memes equating "SAA" with the Russian MOD.

What is SAA in this case?

Syrian Arab Army

The official name for the Assad regime's army. Evil, and incompetent.

For evil, there's things like the Tadamon massacre, their various chemical attacks, the barrel bombings and so on.

And for incompetent, on one occasion caught on camera they were so busy loading up stolen appliances onto their military truck that they completely ignored the SVBIED* as it passed them on the way to the centre of town.


*Suicide Vehicle Born Improvised Explosive Device - ie a big bomb in a car.

Oh thanks. And yes.

Soviet doctrine. Including the use of chemical weapons

I posted this on the other thread. But think it's worth redoing with a screenshot.

Russian Media - Redefining "organized"



Russian state TV has acknowledged some of the situation

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/stat ... Ek9HZUyVxg

With classic fascistic propaganda mix of victimhood and strength

Watch this roundup of clips, featuring panicked Kremlin propagandists on several state TV programs, discussing impressive gains by Ukraine's Armed Forces in reclaiming control over Ukrainian territory. More in my article

Julia Davis
@JuliaDavisNews
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3%
·
8h
Faced with Ukraine’s mounting counteroffensive, which is rapidly achieving impressive gains, concerned Russian propagandists say their forces are battling an "enormous horde," armed with the best Western weaponry and swimming in foreign specialists.

https://thedailybeast.com/russian-state ... oming-true

The ultranationalists are already working on a Dolchstochlegende.

In all seriousness, a very bad time to be a Jew in Russia, or any other ethnic minority, or gay, for that matter. They want scapegoats.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:51 am

jimbob wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:50 pm

What sources do you all use?

I have a small selection of tweeters (I think most on my list here is generally reliable)

https://twitter.com/i/lists/1524102365036658690 and liveuamap.com

Seems like a sensible list. Telegram channels can be useful too, I use DeepStateUA, horevica and supernova_plus. One can view them in browser, and I do. They are generally in Ukrainian, but autotranslate's not too bad as long as you know what the obvious pitfalls are. I occasionally use Russian sources, but only to find out what they are thinking, if that makes sense.

Right now, for example, autotranslated text has a lot of mentions of raisins. That's because іІзюм literally translates as Raisins. There's also a tendency to translate equipment names (Soviet/Russian artillery is named after flowers, while AA systems are named after rivers), and there's a lot of memes and slang to look out for. Cotton, for example, refers to explosions on Russian held territory, as it's a pun on the phrasing Russian commentators use to downplay such events. Russians, meanwhile, are orcs*, vatniks* or katsaps*** most of the time.

The channels I mentioned are general analysis ones, and post a lot of the same sort of things as one gets on twitter, but often a bit earlier. It's important to note that the etiquette on Ukrainian telegram channels is a lot less squeamish about combat footage/aftermath than English-speaking twitter. Keep the sound off, and it is likely you will see stuff you would rather not see, especially if you go digging around for primary sources.



*The habit of referring to Russians as orcs actually started on the Russian side of things.
**term mocking Russian ultranationalists, I've seen it used by Russians as well as Ukrainians.
***ethnic slur, allegedly derived from a Turkic word for butcher.

Thanks - I haven't looked at Telegram yet.