The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Post Reply
monkey
Dorkwood
Posts: 1568
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:10 pm

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by monkey » Thu Nov 10, 2022 8:30 pm

Think I mentioned this in the thread before, but I've seen this in Atlanta. I thought it was a good idea.

User avatar
bjn
After Pie
Posts: 2416
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:01 pm

Interesting article on Germany’s energy transition.

https://jeromeaparis.substack.com/p/how ... nys-energy

TL;DR
It’s generally going fine even they f.cked up a couple of things.

Key take aways to me,
  • renewables now make up 40% of generation,
  • as nuclear declined, gas generation has not increased to cover intermittency of renewables generation, because it was previously covering intermittency of demand,
  • biggest mistakes were shutting down nukes before coal and not looking at gas imports as a strategic issue rather than a commercial issue
  • the subsidies on German bills for renewables were offset by a decrease in wholesale prices
  • the market mechanisms you use to bring in low carbon generation matters, CFDs work better than just putting a floor price on your subsidies.

User avatar
Gfamily
Light of Blast
Posts: 4573
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:00 pm
Location: NW England

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Gfamily » Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:16 pm

I keep reading people moaning about how much the green energy levies have cost, generally in terms of "that expensive green crap!" - but I'm not sure how the economics works.
Given that wind is now (AIUI) the cheapest form of electricity production, it'd would be interesting to know what the situation would be if there hadn't been the subsidised development of no-carbon generation, which is currently providing c40% of our electricity across the year.

Does anyone know of an authoritative source of figures that will help me understand how the subsidies worked ?
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

User avatar
Grumble
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3909
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:56 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:16 pm
I keep reading people moaning about how much the green energy levies have cost, generally in terms of "that expensive green crap!" - but I'm not sure how the economics works.
Given that wind is now (AIUI) the cheapest form of electricity production, it'd would be interesting to know what the situation would be if there hadn't been the subsidised development of no-carbon generation, which is currently providing c40% of our electricity across the year.

Does anyone know of an authoritative source of figures that will help me understand how the subsidies worked ?
I’m not sure, but as I understand things, there isn’t any power that’s not subsidised in one way or another.
A bit churlish

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 6122
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Dec 12, 2022 5:54 am

Good news in a thread on the latest IEA report: https://twitter.com/scienceisstrat1/sta ... aRa5d3ugzg

Solar may surpass coal by 2027; the world will add as much renewable capacity from 2022 to 2027 as in the previous 20 years; a surge of investment will make renewable energy the largest source of global electricity generation by early 2025; the IEA’s forecast for renewables additions is up 30% from just one year ago; massive investment in China; huge rise in electric vehicles globally.

User avatar
Grumble
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3909
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:34 pm

Possibly deserving of a spin-off thread if this gains legs as a slight diversion, but in Life Beyond Plastic I can report that non-plastic sellotape is pretty much the same as plastic sellotape. Good step forward I reckon, was always slightly unsure about recycling paper with sellotape on it. Mind you, it isn’t paper so I’m not sure it belongs in paper recycling still, but it feels better. Is it actually biodegradable? Is it enough to buy “plastic free” when you’re not actually sure what the real benefits are? I’m more confused than when I started this post. Oh dear. Time for bed perhaps.
A bit churlish

FlammableFlower
Dorkwood
Posts: 1373
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:22 pm

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by FlammableFlower » Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:02 pm

Wasn't Sellotape originally made from cellophane and therefore, way back, was biodegradable? Come a full circle of it's returned to bring biodegradable.

Can still remember that I could tell how long it'd be before we got home on journeys going south west on the M5 when you picked up the smell of the cellophane factory outside of Bridgwater. Had quite a potent whiff.


User avatar
Grumble
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3909
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Fri Jan 13, 2023 11:36 am

I think this has been known in outline for years based on internal memos, but this fills in the detail nicely. What a shower of bastards Exxon are.
A bit churlish

FlammableFlower
Dorkwood
Posts: 1373
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:22 pm

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by FlammableFlower » Fri Jan 13, 2023 11:41 am

Grumble wrote:
Fri Jan 13, 2023 11:36 am
I think this has been known in outline for years based on internal memos, but this fills in the detail nicely. What a shower of bastards Exxon are.
Yeah, that sums them up. I haven't looked at the Science paper in detail, but I did note that the Guardian article mentions that Exxon had worked out that there would be fossil fuel-based global warming in the 1970s, but some other oil companies had twigged even earlier (although perhaps not to the same level of accuracy and detail that Exxon had).

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 4534
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by jimbob » Fri Jan 13, 2023 12:23 pm

Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
Sciolus
Dorkwood
Posts: 1152
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Sciolus » Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:59 pm

I see the Climate minister is standing up to the fossil fuel industry.

*checks notes*

Correction, the Climate minister is standing for the fossil fuel industry.

User avatar
dyqik
Light of Blast
Posts: 6458
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:38 pm

There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights, with electric hydrofoil/wing in ground effect ekranoplans being funded by airlines in Hawaii and Japan, among others.

https://beatofhawaii.com/japan-airlines ... der-fleet/

User avatar
bjn
After Pie
Posts: 2416
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Mon Jan 30, 2023 10:00 pm

Interesting article on the rapidly increasing use of industrial heat pumps replacing gas heating in Europe. It also introduces the “Sherman Tank” as a unit of volume.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/europe-i ... heat-pumps

User avatar
Grumble
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3909
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Mon Jan 30, 2023 11:19 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:38 pm
There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights, with electric hydrofoil/wing in ground effect ekranoplans being funded by airlines in Hawaii and Japan, among others.

https://beatofhawaii.com/japan-airlines ... der-fleet/
I can imagine Greece buying a few of them, not to mention Malaysia and the Philippines.
A bit churlish

User avatar
Grumble
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3909
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Mon Jan 30, 2023 11:25 pm

bjn wrote:
Mon Jan 30, 2023 10:00 pm
Interesting article on the rapidly increasing use of industrial heat pumps replacing gas heating in Europe. It also introduces the “Sherman Tank” as a unit of volume.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/europe-i ... heat-pumps
Very interesting. Industrial heat pumps were covered in Cleaning Up recently, https://overcast.fm/+fkiz_8UpM
The discussion felt slightly abstract when I first listened but it certainly seems to be progressing in reality
A bit churlish

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3144
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jan 30, 2023 11:26 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:38 pm
There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights, with electric hydrofoil/wing in ground effect ekranoplans being funded by airlines in Hawaii and Japan, among others.

https://beatofhawaii.com/japan-airlines ... der-fleet/
Ekranoplans are a fantastic bit of technology, and one that will potentially benefit a lot from modern computing and fly-by-wire. It's also possible to build an aircraft that functions as an ekranoplan when it can, but is also capable of more conventional flight if necessary, which could be useful for short hops between bodies of water, or to allow them to operate from conventional airfields.

User avatar
TimW
Catbabel
Posts: 673
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:27 pm

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by TimW » Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:21 am

dyqik wrote:
Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:38 pm
There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights...
Footage here of how they will look on the Portsea Island - Channel Islands route:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-h ... e-57483039

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 6122
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:35 pm

TimW wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:21 am
dyqik wrote:
Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:38 pm
There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights...
Footage here of how they will look on the Portsea Island - Channel Islands route:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-h ... e-57483039
Interesting. Looks like they will have the pros and cons of other ground effect vehicles. Faster, cheaper and lower power use than convectional aircraft. Using the sea rather than an expensive land based runway will save a lot of money and allow for departure from close to the middle of some large urban areas on the coast.

But, its going to be difficult in heavy seas and high winds. Also a vehicle going at high speed close to the surface of the water will be a greater risk of collisions than a ship. The ekranoplan might be severely damaged by something that a passenger ferry wouldn't notice.

User avatar
dyqik
Light of Blast
Posts: 6458
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Tue Jan 31, 2023 2:44 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:35 pm
TimW wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:21 am
dyqik wrote:
Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:38 pm
There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights...
Footage here of how they will look on the Portsea Island - Channel Islands route:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-h ... e-57483039
Interesting. Looks like they will have the pros and cons of other ground effect vehicles. Faster, cheaper and lower power use than convectional aircraft. Using the sea rather than an expensive land based runway will save a lot of money and allow for departure from close to the middle of some large urban areas on the coast.

But, its going to be difficult in heavy seas and high winds. Also a vehicle going at high speed close to the surface of the water will be a greater risk of collisions than a ship. The ekranoplan might be severely damaged by something that a passenger ferry wouldn't notice.
Historically, seaplanes were how tourist access to Hawaii started - Pan-Am Clipper flights - with roughly the same considerations. These are more efficient than eitherseaplanes or ferries.

Note there are no regular ferry services in Hawaii - the distances are too great for them to be really viable for passengers, and the last time a fast ferry service was attempted, it was shut down by protests.

How much the airline had to do with organizing the protests is a question for your cynicism.

User avatar
Grumble
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3909
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Tue Jan 31, 2023 2:51 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:35 pm
TimW wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:21 am
dyqik wrote:
Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:38 pm
There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights...
Footage here of how they will look on the Portsea Island - Channel Islands route:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-h ... e-57483039
Interesting. Looks like they will have the pros and cons of other ground effect vehicles. Faster, cheaper and lower power use than convectional aircraft. Using the sea rather than an expensive land based runway will save a lot of money and allow for departure from close to the middle of some large urban areas on the coast.

But, its going to be difficult in heavy seas and high winds. Also a vehicle going at high speed close to the surface of the water will be a greater risk of collisions than a ship. The ekranoplan might be severely damaged by something that a passenger ferry wouldn't notice.
Definitely need to see the bad weather performance. I believe hydrofoils also suffer in heavy weather, although I’ve seen footage of electric hydrofoils cutting through big ship wakes quite nicely.
A bit churlish

User avatar
Gfamily
Light of Blast
Posts: 4573
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:00 pm
Location: NW England

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Gfamily » Tue Jan 31, 2023 2:57 pm

TimW wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:21 am
dyqik wrote:
Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:38 pm
There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights...
Footage here of how they will look on the Portsea Island - Channel Islands route:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-h ... e-57483039
At first I read this as a flight to Portsea Island, but then I read on.
Though the proposal is cross channel, to Cherbourg rather than the Channel Isles.

I'm not sure who the customer base would be, as from the picture it looks likely to be foot passengers only, so there would be limited appeal without significant infrastructure at the other end for fast onward travel to a variety of destinations.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

User avatar
bjn
After Pie
Posts: 2416
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:32 pm

Coal economics get more and more suckier in the USA. Just the opex of coal is now more than the all in cost of new build wind and solar, with the exception of one coal plant.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/01 ... oal-plant/

User avatar
Little waster
After Pie
Posts: 2340
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:35 am
Location: About 1 inch behind my eyes

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Little waster » Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:12 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:32 pm
Coal economics get more and more suckier in the USA. Just the opex of coal is now more than the all in cost of new build wind and solar, with the exception of one coal plant.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/01 ... oal-plant/
Interesting that the one exception is (unsurprisingly) the most modern of the last major wave of coal-fired power stations and was literally built next door to it's supplying coal mine to minimise transportation costs making it a special case.

That doesn't bode well for 'generic coal power station".
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.

IvanV
After Pie
Posts: 1759
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 11:12 am

Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by IvanV » Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:23 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:32 pm
Coal economics get more and more suckier in the USA. Just the opex of coal is now more than the all in cost of new build wind and solar, with the exception of one coal plant.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/01 ... oal-plant/
Fossil fuel has become sufficiently expensive in general at the moment, that probably the opex of any kind of fossil fuel station is higher than the levelised average cost of wind and solar. It is noticeable how much less gas is being used at the moment in Britain, in comparison to last year. See Gridwatch.

But that's the levelised average cost of an intermittent source vs the opex of a "dispatchable" source. So still leaves you with the problem of what to do when there those intermittent sources of energy are being intermittent. You still need the back-up in some form.

Post Reply