The Death Of Fossil Fuels

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Grumble
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:29 pm

Grumble wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:38 pm
bmforre wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 9:18 pm
Latest first: We don't pump hydro in Norway, water rains down from above and is caught in our large reservoirs. From whence: dispatched.

Storage capacity in this country. According to https://energifaktanorge.no/norsk-energ ... rsyningen/, translated and commented by me:
"Normal year" production: 141 TWh. Trend: Increasing with climate change at present.
Storage capacity ca. 70% of yearly consumption.
That's ca 100 TWh.
While you state
... I don’t think we’ll get 1 TWh of storage ...
in Norway we do have 100 times that.
That’s not storage so much as production. For it to be useful to the UK, in this hypothetical scenario, we’d need to add a TWh or so of capacity that we could use in a day or two and which would be easily replenished. That might not be that big of a challenge, I don’t know. Does Norway export a lot of hydro power currently?
I did not know about this when I posted that.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:18 pm

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk ... ls-in-2019

A rise in wind farm capacity was offset by the outages of two nuclear plants so total low carbon energy didn’t increase much last year. A drop in total demand (yay for LED lightbulbs) was a big contributor to reduced fossil fuel usage and hence a higher percentage of low carbon electricity in the mix. They project an increase in demand in the future due to electrification of heating and transport, so new nuclear or an acceleration of more renewables + storage will be required.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by FlammableFlower » Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:49 am

Trying to find out if correct, but I was talking to someone the other day who reckoned that gas-boilers were to be banned from new-build housing from 2025. Now whether that is a) correct and b) will have that much of an effect (as it'll be a tiny fraction of a large housing market) are yet to be determined.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by lpm » Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:57 am

2025 was in the manifestos of certain parties that failed to win the General Election. The housing companies did not like it. The housing companies have close links to the political party that won the General Election.

It would have a big effect - something like 5 million homes by 2050. Each 5 years it's delayed means another 1 million homes that will need an expensive refit.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:02 pm

Trump to shut down more coal than Obama
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 82456.html

Of course it’s not actually him, it’s the economic reality that gas is cheaper than coal, with the added disruption from renewables too. Even Trump can’t fight economics.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:06 am

Disinvestment in coal just took a huge leap forward. Black Rock is is going to disinvest in firms that have over 25% of their revenue in coal. An open letter from their CEO lays out the reasoning. Basically climate risk is financial risk and it's their fiduciary duty to reduce that.

They manage seven trillion dollars in assets so the impact should be significant and drive up the cost of capital for the more polluting industries, it's also recognition, in capitalist terms, that something needs to be done about anthropogenic climate change. With any luck, more will pile in.

If only they'd done this a decade or three ago.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by lpm » Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:26 am

Ultimately, they go with the economics, not the science. Investment in coal was profitable 3 decades ago, and probably 1 decade ago. It's only the last 5 years that it's become clearer and clearer that new investment would be a dud. It's good evidence of the theory that capitalism is too slow to adjust capital allocation in a changing world, but only 5 years too slow.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:18 am

My gas boiler is on the way out. It is 25 years old and a new one will be more efficient, but I’m a bit sad that I’m replacing it with another gas boiler. I simply haven’t got the capital to buy a greener more efficient system. If I have to take a loan out to pay for it then there is no financial incentive for me to spend 3x the amount even if it will be cheaper in the long run in running costs, thinking of solar hot water.

I’ve also looked into getting solar PV and air source heat pumps, I’d need a spare £15-20k to be able to do that and I might see a benefit financially in about 15 years. A new gas boiler costs £2k.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Matatouille » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:24 pm

Grumble wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:18 am
My gas boiler is on the way out. It is 25 years old and a new one will be more efficient, but I’m a bit sad that I’m replacing it with another gas boiler. I simply haven’t got the capital to buy a greener more efficient system. If I have to take a loan out to pay for it then there is no financial incentive for me to spend 3x the amount even if it will be cheaper in the long run in running costs, thinking of solar hot water.

I’ve also looked into getting solar PV and air source heat pumps, I’d need a spare £15-20k to be able to do that and I might see a benefit financially in about 15 years. A new gas boiler costs £2k.
In the UK? Have you looked into the Renewable Heat Incentive? Its for retrofits/replacements and when I was looking at it for a house I was thinking of buying and doing an eco-renovation on, the generosity of the scheme went a long way to offsetting the loan (specifically in my case extra mortgage value) required. Wouldn't have paid the whole cost of the ground sourced heat pump system I was thinkiing of, but the operational savings would have done the rest over a reasonable period.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:16 pm

Matatouille wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:24 pm
Grumble wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:18 am
My gas boiler is on the way out. It is 25 years old and a new one will be more efficient, but I’m a bit sad that I’m replacing it with another gas boiler. I simply haven’t got the capital to buy a greener more efficient system. If I have to take a loan out to pay for it then there is no financial incentive for me to spend 3x the amount even if it will be cheaper in the long run in running costs, thinking of solar hot water.

I’ve also looked into getting solar PV and air source heat pumps, I’d need a spare £15-20k to be able to do that and I might see a benefit financially in about 15 years. A new gas boiler costs £2k.
In the UK? Have you looked into the Renewable Heat Incentive? Its for retrofits/replacements and when I was looking at it for a house I was thinking of buying and doing an eco-renovation on, the generosity of the scheme went a long way to offsetting the loan (specifically in my case extra mortgage value) required. Wouldn't have paid the whole cost of the ground sourced heat pump system I was thinkiing of, but the operational savings would have done the rest over a reasonable period.
I have. If the renewable heat incentive is going to drive uptake then it needs to be applied before purchase, not over seven years after the purchase! That puts the onus on me to raise the money in the first place, and I don’t see why I should. Why doesn’t it work like the electric car incentive?
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Matatouille » Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:19 pm

Grumble wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:16 pm
Why doesn’t it work like the electric car incentive?
Because that would make it work for most people! Can't be hqaving that!


I think this boils down to the Treasury's general reluctance for givaways that increase the value of poeple's assets, in this case homes. Whilst I understand the general sentiment that this sort of investment in an ideal world shouldn't be from the government as it just increases the gap between haves and have nots, they're going to have to get off this high horse when it comes to house efficiency improvements and heating carbon elimination if we want to get anywhere very fast.

A decent, wide ranging dwelling improvement scheme where more homes are eligible for improvement grants than not ought not affect asset values too much over the medium-long term as you'd be lifting the bulk of the housing stock, rather than individual dwellings relative to their neighbours.

EDIT: But that would be mad, wouldn't it?

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by nekomatic » Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:25 pm

Last time I tried working out the overall CO2 efficiency of heat pumps given the UK energy supply mix, I think I concluded it was a bit doubtful whether they really made sense here - by the time you’ve generated and transmitted the electricity to run one you’ve lost a lot of the energy you’re regaining, while a modern gas boiler is 90-something per cent efficient. This may have changed of course (or I may even have been wrong in the first place).

If you want to cut your CO2 footprint without worrying too much about payback then I think solar thermal is still worth doing - but as I think I’ve said here before you’d achieve more by investing the money in a solar or other renewable scheme somewhere sunnier or windier.

Better insulation and draughtproofing is also cost-effective although you need to make sure you don’t create condensation issues. You can get ventilation systems with heat recovery which might be an option. I’ve also seen heat exchangers for the shower drain and cold water supply which I thought was a nifty idea.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Matatouille » Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:58 pm

nekomatic wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:25 pm
Last time I tried working out the overall CO2 efficiency of heat pumps given the UK energy supply mix, I think I concluded it was a bit doubtful whether they really made sense here - by the time you’ve generated and transmitted the electricity to run one you’ve lost a lot of the energy you’re regaining, while a modern gas boiler is 90-something per cent efficient. This may have changed of course (or I may even have been wrong in the first place).

If you want to cut your CO2 footprint without worrying too much about payback then I think solar thermal is still worth doing - but as I think I’ve said here before you’d achieve more by investing the money in a solar or other renewable scheme somewhere sunnier or windier.

Better insulation and draughtproofing is also cost-effective although you need to make sure you don’t create condensation issues. You can get ventilation systems with heat recovery which might be an option. I’ve also seen heat exchangers for the shower drain and cold water supply which I thought was a nifty idea.
In my case when I was looking at this it was in the context of a holistic eco renovation project. Upgrading the windows, airtighting, and insulation, coupled with a Mechanical Ventillation with Heat Recovery unit to avoid the damp issues. Once that was done, the MVHR made sense as the thermal energy required would have been reduced considerably. Yes solar thermal and outflow heat exchangers were also in the plan. Shame about the structural issues the house had that were way past my risk threshold to take on :o .

In the UK, you're right that heat pumps aren't exceptional, and per unit enmergy aren't an automatic win over Gas. But coupled with a green electricity supplier (I know, its a lot more complicated than that) it removes most of the carbon from your space heating, which is a goal for many people.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Fri Jan 31, 2020 3:15 pm

Matatouille wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:58 pm
nekomatic wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:25 pm
Last time I tried working out the overall CO2 efficiency of heat pumps given the UK energy supply mix, I think I concluded it was a bit doubtful whether they really made sense here - by the time you’ve generated and transmitted the electricity to run one you’ve lost a lot of the energy you’re regaining, while a modern gas boiler is 90-something per cent efficient. This may have changed of course (or I may even have been wrong in the first place).

If you want to cut your CO2 footprint without worrying too much about payback then I think solar thermal is still worth doing - but as I think I’ve said here before you’d achieve more by investing the money in a solar or other renewable scheme somewhere sunnier or windier.

Better insulation and draughtproofing is also cost-effective although you need to make sure you don’t create condensation issues. You can get ventilation systems with heat recovery which might be an option. I’ve also seen heat exchangers for the shower drain and cold water supply which I thought was a nifty idea.
In my case when I was looking at this it was in the context of a holistic eco renovation project. Upgrading the windows, airtighting, and insulation, coupled with a Mechanical Ventillation with Heat Recovery unit to avoid the damp issues. Once that was done, the MVHR made sense as the thermal energy required would have been reduced considerably. Yes solar thermal and outflow heat exchangers were also in the plan. Shame about the structural issues the house had that were way past my risk threshold to take on :o .

In the UK, you're right that heat pumps aren't exceptional, and per unit enmergy aren't an automatic win over Gas. But coupled with a green electricity supplier (I know, its a lot more complicated than that) it removes most of the carbon from your space heating, which is a goal for many people.
Looking around here, ground source heat pumps aren't actually that expensive, although I need to get a quote on one at some point. Some of that is because our bedrock is shallow and predictable, and there's some new techniques with drilling on domestic scales. And with our temperature range, they make an awful lot of sense - much better to draw heat from 10 C in a -10 C winter, and dump it to 10 C in a 35 C summer than try to exchange heat to and from air.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by nekomatic » Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:06 pm

Meanwhile in other decarbonisation news, a Norwegian ship is going to test a 2 GW ammonia fuel cell as its power plant

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:13 pm

nekomatic wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:06 pm
Meanwhile in other decarbonisation news, a Norwegian ship is going to test a 2 GW ammonia fuel cell as its power plant
Er, 2 MW, it says. (which is still 2,600 HP)

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by nekomatic » Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:16 pm

Er yeah, that too :oops:

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:12 pm

Scaling up might not be easy. How hot do ammonia fuel cells run?
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:08 pm

Among other advantages, the north west is more eco-friendly than Yorkshire. Also Liverpool (and North Wales) is an environmental disaster. According to the National Grid.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by jimbob » Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:37 pm

Meanwhile

https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2 ... d-coating/

Panasonic manages 16% efficiency with inkjet-printed perovskite solar cells - which has the potential to be very interesting.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:51 pm

Ooooh, freaking awesome. A major problem with perovskite cells was that they aren’t very durable. No mention if they have overcome that.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by jimbob » Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:08 pm

bjn wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:51 pm
Ooooh, freaking awesome. A major problem with perovskite cells was that they aren’t very durable. No mention if they have overcome that.
There was another story about increasing the stability of perovskite cells - which I can't find.

Meanwhile, this might be an attractive model for getting round range anxiety:

https://www.eenewspower.com/news/blende ... _id=125426

A 600-mile range from a hydrogen fuel cell and a lithium ion battery pack, together with rolling out 700 hydrogen filling stations (across the US, so presumably most would still need the battery until the infrastructure catches up).
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:12 pm

jimbob wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:08 pm
bjn wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:51 pm
Ooooh, freaking awesome. A major problem with perovskite cells was that they aren’t very durable. No mention if they have overcome that.
There was another story about increasing the stability of perovskite cells - which I can't find.

Meanwhile, this might be an attractive model for getting round range anxiety:

https://www.eenewspower.com/news/blende ... _id=125426

A 600-mile range from a hydrogen fuel cell and a lithium ion battery pack, together with rolling out 700 hydrogen filling stations (across the US, so presumably most would still need the battery until the infrastructure catches up).
Hmmm. So an BEV and a H2 vehicle mixed with a super capacitor all in on car. That’s going not to be cheap. Also, the filling stations are “planned”.

I totally don’t believe that H2 will be a thing for most transport. The H2 (which is just an energy store) will have to be generated by electrolysis, and round trip efficiencies are far worst than with a battery. CBA to dig out the figures again, but with current tech, something like twice the electricity needs to be generated for a H2 vehicle per mile over a BEV. Theorical peak is somewhere around 40% worse. Combined with a lack of distribution infrastructure, the difficulty in transporting it and the pain in a butt that are H2 high pressure storage tanks, it’s just too painful, inefficient and expensive.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Martin_B » Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:17 am

bjn wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:12 pm
I totally don’t believe that H2 will be a thing for most transport. The H2 (which is just an energy store) will have to be generated by electrolysis, and round trip efficiencies are far worst than with a battery. CBA to dig out the figures again, but with current tech, something like twice the electricity needs to be generated for a H2 vehicle per mile over a BEV. Theorical peak is somewhere around 40% worse. Combined with a lack of distribution infrastructure, the difficulty in transporting it and the pain in a butt that are H2 high pressure storage tanks, it’s just too painful, inefficient and expensive.
Petrol, diesel, ethanol all work for cars/trucks because they are liquids at normal atmospheric temperature. Liquids allow for a fast mass transfer and are relatively easy to deal with, meaning you can fill the car/truck in a couple of minutes.

LPG causes issues at times because it is pressurised. You need to know how to connect the (relatively low) pressure hose to your car. But as a pressurised liquid it still allows fast filling.

H2 will be a gas at any temperature humans can stand and the mass transfer of gas is relatively slow. It needs pretty massive pressures and/or low temperatures to make it a liquid. Unless a truly fool-proof method of connecting the filling station hose to the vehicle is produced, I can foresee multiple accidents within weeks of the roll-out of hydrogen filling stations. And remember, fools are ingenious, so they'll find work-arounds for fool-proof systems.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:40 am

There's already loads of hydrogen fuel stations in Japan, South Korea, Denmark, Germany, Finland and California, among other places. There have been stations in the UK since 2011.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_station

Consumer hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been in the roads for most of a decade.

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