The Death Of Fossil Fuels

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dyqik
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Mon May 18, 2020 4:54 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 1:53 pm
When I was in rural Guinea Bissau last year, the only power in the village was from solar panels and batteries (other than the health clinic, which had a petrol/diesel generator).

Most houses had no power at all. The panels were on buildings run by local government and an NGO, but they let people charge their mobile phones there (the only electric device most people have). Nights were powered by the moon and wood fires.

Guinea Bissau has one of the world's lowest HDIs, but in my (admittedly pretty limited) experience of rural Africa it's not atypical for there to be no paved roads or other large-scale long-distance infrastructure. A bunch of panels and an old motorbike battery is a lot easier to set up than any large centralised solution.

We were moving around a lot, and just had a foldable panel around 1.5m^2 and a battery, which was enough to run a fridge for samples, my boss's laptop, a device for centrifuging and analysing blood samples, plus various phones and tablets and gubbins. Most people in the area have much less than that.

Plus, most demand can be timed. Charging phones happens in the day, as does listening/watching football on the radio/tv and office work for government and NGO workers. That's about it.

Bit of a rambly anecdote sorry, but I do think it's an entirely reasonable suggestion for meeting current demand (a few panels per village) and easily scalable for future decades (probably eventually reaching one or more panels per house).

I'm not as familiar with urban power sources (though I think that's still less than 50% of the region's population) but my impression is that there's a lot of dependence on generators as centralised schemes are unreliable. It's probably easier to swap generators for panel+battery than fix the larger-scale grid.
You could probably add another solar array and battery pack to the list, for a cell-phone tower, as well, so you've got internet and phone service for the cell phones.

As for power, there's very little point to rolling out copper to every house for phones given where we are now with tech.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by JQH » Mon May 18, 2020 5:23 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:54 pm

As for power, there's very little point to rolling out copper to every house for phones given where we are now with tech.
I suspect most developing countries are taking that view. Certainly South African townships seem to have jumped straight to mobile and wireless technology.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Fri May 22, 2020 9:02 am

The U.K. has now passed 1000 hours without coal generation. That number is just going to keep going up. I don’t think we’ll get to 10,000 hours, but maybe 5,000? Place your bets!
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Fri May 22, 2020 3:22 pm

According to gridwatch.co.uk we're currently exporting over 3GW of electricity. Today being, for the record, a fairly sunny and very windy day.

With a few more wind turbines and an inter-connector to Norway hopefully we’ll be able to have a reciprocal arrangement of wind and hydro working nicely.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 22, 2020 9:23 pm

Wind and hydro has always struck me as a very sensible contribution. With enough hydro in the mix, other renewables can basically stop caring about storage*, which is the major limiting factor on renewables much of the time.

*This assumes that the installed generator capacity of the hydro is enough to cover the average of hydro+other renewable, but the actual contribution of the hydro is limited by the amount of water flowing through the dam overall.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by FlammableFlower » Sat May 23, 2020 7:41 am

They were reckoning that this weekend some renewable plants might have to go offline as there will be too much even to export via the interconnector.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Sat May 23, 2020 7:56 am

FlammableFlower wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:41 am
They were reckoning that this weekend some renewable plants might have to go offline as there will be too much even to export via the interconnector.
Yeah, the grid isn’t quite ready yet to be run off 100% renewables + nuclear. Hopefully in a couple of years it will be though. I think National Grid have said they want to be able to do it sometimes by 2025.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Sciolus » Sat May 23, 2020 8:06 am

Of course, the government and establishment are still fighting to lock us in to fossil fuels for as long as possible.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Sat May 23, 2020 12:39 pm

Grumble wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:56 am
FlammableFlower wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:41 am
They were reckoning that this weekend some renewable plants might have to go offline as there will be too much even to export via the interconnector.
Yeah, the grid isn’t quite ready yet to be run off 100% renewables + nuclear. Hopefully in a couple of years it will be though. I think National Grid have said they want to be able to do it sometimes by 2025.
Overbuild and curtail is a viable method of deploying renewables. Basically build much more your peak demand requires, so that on less windy/sunny days you are generating more sufficient power. This does mean curtailing generation on sunny/windy days as you will have too much power. How much you overbuild depends on the price of the renewable in question. The cheaper it is, the more you overbuild. It's about filling in the troughs more than making sure every potential kWh is used.

That obviously makes a lot of cheap energy available on windy/sunny days, so if you can use that for some purpose you wouldn't otherwise, yay. Such as pumping water up hill, splitting H20, generating CH4 or a bunch of other things that can deal with intermittent, but predicable, availability of very cheap power.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat May 23, 2020 12:45 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 8:06 am
Of course, the government and establishment are still fighting to lock us in to fossil fuels for as long as possible.
The time for talking is quickly running out, it seems. We all know what that means. :(
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Sat May 23, 2020 1:56 pm

bjn wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 12:39 pm
Grumble wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:56 am
FlammableFlower wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:41 am
They were reckoning that this weekend some renewable plants might have to go offline as there will be too much even to export via the interconnector.
Yeah, the grid isn’t quite ready yet to be run off 100% renewables + nuclear. Hopefully in a couple of years it will be though. I think National Grid have said they want to be able to do it sometimes by 2025.
Overbuild and curtail is a viable method of deploying renewables. Basically build much more your peak demand requires, so that on less windy/sunny days you are generating more sufficient power. This does mean curtailing generation on sunny/windy days as you will have too much power. How much you overbuild depends on the price of the renewable in question. The cheaper it is, the more you overbuild. It's about filling in the troughs more than making sure every potential kWh is used.

That obviously makes a lot of cheap energy available on windy/sunny days, so if you can use that for some purpose you wouldn't otherwise, yay. Such as pumping water up hill, splitting H20, generating CH4 or a bunch of other things that can deal with intermittent, but predicable, availability of very cheap power.
National Grid are concentrating more on demand side response - so paying people to charge their cars, for example, when there is an oversupply. Smoothing out the demand, or matching it to supply is going to be a much larger part of the answer than currently but it is already happening.

Exporting is also viable as long as the mix of supply or the weather is different in the two countries/regions.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by lpm » Sat May 23, 2020 2:13 pm

Right now UK 61% wind and solar. Plus 20% nuclear.

Gas only 17%.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 23, 2020 2:33 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 2:13 pm
Right now UK 61% wind and solar. Plus 20% nuclear.

Gas only 17%.
It's a sunny, windy day. Without some other form of power generation, wind and solar cannot reliably provide power - still nights occur. This is not to say wind and solar can't be of immense use, but we need to maintain power in all conditions, not just bright or windy ones.

That's why gas can't be fully replaced with wind and solar, and likely why the go ahead for more gas powered generation has been given.

To fully replace fossil fuels, one needs to do more than get distracted by shiny stories about what wind and solar can achieve when conditions are favourable to them, or utterly implausible claims of electric semi-trucks from dodgy vapourware car companies, and focus on a full spectrum of power generation that can meet the full needs of the community.

For a small, remote community with lots of sunshine, that might be solar with batteries. For most other things, batteries are not the way to go. So by all means get excited about wind and solar, but remember the need to pair them with other forms of generation, be it conventional or pump-storage hydro or nuclear or other, and remember that things do not need to be a complete solution. We can hardly power the country with waste to power or farm-waste biofuel, but we can use them as part of our overall generation.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Sat May 23, 2020 5:15 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 2:33 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 2:13 pm
Right now UK 61% wind and solar. Plus 20% nuclear.

Gas only 17%.
It's a sunny, windy day. Without some other form of power generation, wind and solar cannot reliably provide power - still nights occur. This is not to say wind and solar can't be of immense use, but we need to maintain power in all conditions, not just bright or windy ones.

That's why gas can't be fully replaced with wind and solar, and likely why the go ahead for more gas powered generation has been given.

To fully replace fossil fuels, one needs to do more than get distracted by shiny stories about what wind and solar can achieve when conditions are favourable to them, or utterly implausible claims of electric semi-trucks from dodgy vapourware car companies, and focus on a full spectrum of power generation that can meet the full needs of the community.

For a small, remote community with lots of sunshine, that might be solar with batteries. For most other things, batteries are not the way to go. So by all means get excited about wind and solar, but remember the need to pair them with other forms of generation, be it conventional or pump-storage hydro or nuclear or other, and remember that things do not need to be a complete solution. We can hardly power the country with waste to power or farm-waste biofuel, but we can use them as part of our overall generation.
You do have a bee in your bonnet about a few things and no need to be quite so condescending. Wind and solar are not shiny distractions, they are core to future energy generation system. A range of scenarios have been modelled and they can cost effectively and securely provide the majority of future energy needs.

Nukes, on the other hand, are mostly shiny distractions, because no-one apart from the Chinese, can actually build the things on time. And who the hell knows what they did to make that happen. Olkiluoto is only a dozen years behind schedule, Hinkley C is billions over budget and several years behind schedule. You can't rely on them if you can't build them, they have a 0% capacity factor.

There are a bunch of studies where overbuilding and curtailment can provide the majority of future electricity generation. For example
this study that shows storage can allow renewables cost effectively replace 70% of generation in Minnesota, noted for it's warm and balmy winters. Or this one which show how overbuild + curtail + storage could work across the world in a range of climates. Or one that shows West Africa can most cost effectively and reliably cover its future energy demands via solar + some storage.

As for your hate on Elon and Tesla (yes, he is an a..eh.le), I wouldn't call over half a millions cars shipped as vapourware. They'll build the Semi, and it will certainly take longer than they said it would, and no, it won't do everything for everyone. As for his other company, it's about to launch astronauts into space from American soil for the first time in years.

Which leads onto an interesting article about the drop in battery prices over the last 10 years, from over $1000/kWh to around $156 today. Which is the main reason the price of the cheapest Tesla has dropped from $100,000 with 53kWh in 2009, to $33K for a car with 54kWh today. The magic $100/kWh will probably happen in 2023/24, at that cost the purchase price of a BEV car will match that of an equivalent ICE.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat May 23, 2020 6:00 pm

It's worth remembering that the UK is in a pretty unusual geographical location.

The different coloured bars on this map have equal populations:
Image
so the UK is weirdly polar. Most people live in much sunnier areas. Map from https://digg.com/2019/worlds-population-by-latitude

It's also an island with a lot of windy coastline. About 40% of people live within 100km of the coast, so offshore wind might have good potential for worldwide rollout (and we're slowly working out how to avoid chopping up so many migrating birds and bats).

The current target agreed to is net zero globally by 2050, but richer countries should be doing more of the investment in this as it's largely their fault we have a climate emergency in the first place. Plus 2050 might be too late for Arctic ice, coral reefs etc anyway, so we probably want fossil fuels to die even earlier than that, as there are other challenges like land use that might be more complicated to solve than a straightforward switch of generation technology.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Sat May 23, 2020 6:09 pm

Not so long ago, a few years at most, fossil fuel funded lobbyists were claiming that renewables couldn’t produce more 30% of electricity without “destabilising the grid”. That was shown to be complete bollocks. We can’t yet do without gas, but its days are numbered.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat May 23, 2020 6:13 pm

Grumble wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:09 pm
Not so long ago, a few years at most, fossil fuel funded lobbyists were claiming that renewables couldn’t produce more 30% of electricity without “destabilising the grid”. That was shown to be complete bollocks. We can’t yet do without gas, but its days are numbered.
If there were any justice, those lobbyists and their funders would be facing severe punishments. The amount of lying that's been done to prevent progress, make money and endanger everyone on earth is pretty sickening.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 23, 2020 6:33 pm

Re: West Africa, for regions without grid infrastructure, renewables+local storage may be better than grid connection. Never argued otherwise.

Secondly, we have an article discussing a study saying that wind and solar overbuild+containment could provide 70% of Minnesota's capacity, with discussion of possible reduction in storage with 80% solar penetration. Sadly the article does not include much of the calculation, the original study is linked, but I haven't had the time to go through it. Not sure how it's meant to disagree with my point that solar+wind need either storage - I've criticised battery storage for large scale stuff, but other forms of storage exist - or additional generation to cope with all scenarios, given that it's an article about a study on how to get to 70% renewable 30% gas.

Thirdly, we have a commercial website estimating what all renewable grids would look like, under certain modelling constraints, including that a system must be able to cope with three days of low renewable generation, as well as seasonal fluctuations. These constraints include ignoring existing and potential nuclear, and also ignoring biomass. It doesn't appear they went into much detail about how viable the grids it comes up with actually are

That said, look into it beyond the headline and it's informative. For the UK, for example, they assume that power-to-x and synthetic gas will play a much bigger role than solar. That does seem a sensible way of doing things, but it relies on a technology that is very much in its infancy*. Their estimate for the UK using solar+wind+batteries+curtailment only, btw, is 125% higher costs than using wind+storage+power-to-gas+hydro+solar+curtailment. Just because something is possible does not mean it is optimal.

As for nuclear being a distraction, it's odd that France manages to achieve so much lower emissions per capita than countries with comparable economic and social conditions like, say, Britain (42% higher) or Germany (95% higher) (World Bank 2014 figures, which were the first that turned up when I searched).

As for the semi truck, they were supposed to have built it. They haven't. Not every tech story is true, and not everyone selling a renewable future is honest. Musk certainly isn't; he has definitely lied to move stock prices. As for why they haven't built it, it's probably because, compared to a diesel truck, much of its payload would be replaced by batteries, it would cost a lot more, and it's battery pack would be dying before the diesel needed the first of its many lifetime engine rebuilds. Long range freight is the worst case for battery road vehicles of the lot. Electric urban buses and local delivery vans, for example, are an example where electric's strengths in acceleration and local air cleanliness are against diesel's weaknesses. Long range freight pits diesel's most efficient mode of operation, steady cruising at fixed revs, against electric's biggest weakness, weight-per-unit-range.

*Interestingly, they claim one of the main reasons for not including existing or future nuclear in the modelling

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Sat May 23, 2020 6:46 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:00 pm
we're slowly working out how to avoid chopping up so many migrating birds and bats)
How much of an actual problem is this and how do we avoid it?
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Sat May 23, 2020 6:54 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:33 pm
it's battery pack would be dying before the diesel needed the first of its many lifetime engine rebuilds.
Got to challenge this point, why on earth would you think this? Electric car batteries don’t have any such problem in the real world. In a world where Lexus have announced a 1,000,000km warranty and Tesla are widely expected to soon announce a 1,000,000 mile battery soon, this seems like an old and completely discredited anti-electric car talking point. I realise electric lorries don’t exist yet, but I can’t imagine why they would be worse than cars or anything like as bad as diesel.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 23, 2020 7:10 pm

Grumble wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:54 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:33 pm
it's battery pack would be dying before the diesel needed the first of its many lifetime engine rebuilds.
Got to challenge this point, why on earth would you think this? Electric car batteries don’t have any such problem in the real world. In a world where Lexus have announced a 1,000,000km warranty and Tesla are widely expected to soon announce a 1,000,000 mile battery soon, this seems like an old and completely discredited anti-electric car talking point. I realise electric lorries don’t exist yet, but I can’t imagine why they would be worse than cars or anything like as bad as diesel.
We've been through it on the old forum. Diesel trucks get their first big engine overhaul after about a million miles. That's not lifespan, it's time between major overhauls. Lifespans are much longer. Electric car batteries can, and do, lose capacity. I realise it was 2017 when we last went over it, but at the time I used both academic sources, and things like reports by Tesla owners.

Diesel trucks have a couple of tonnes of drivetrain for their range. Electric trucks still have most of that weight in their motors and drivetrain, but then also must carry many tonnes of batteries. It's all there on the old forum, I think.

This isn't an argument for just using diesel trucks indefinitely, btw. It's an argument for not expecting electric trucks to replace diesel trucks for long range freight based on market forces.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 23, 2020 7:10 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:13 pm
Grumble wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:09 pm
Not so long ago, a few years at most, fossil fuel funded lobbyists were claiming that renewables couldn’t produce more 30% of electricity without “destabilising the grid”. That was shown to be complete bollocks. We can’t yet do without gas, but its days are numbered.
If there were any justice, those lobbyists and their funders would be facing severe punishments. The amount of lying that's been done to prevent progress, make money and endanger everyone on earth is pretty sickening.
What, we're doing retroactive law now, are we?

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat May 23, 2020 7:33 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:10 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:13 pm
Grumble wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:09 pm
Not so long ago, a few years at most, fossil fuel funded lobbyists were claiming that renewables couldn’t produce more 30% of electricity without “destabilising the grid”. That was shown to be complete bollocks. We can’t yet do without gas, but its days are numbered.
If there were any justice, those lobbyists and their funders would be facing severe punishments. The amount of lying that's been done to prevent progress, make money and endanger everyone on earth is pretty sickening.
What, we're doing retroactive law now, are we?
I meant moral justice. Lying for profit in a way that kills people is obviously and unquestionably morally wrong. It's a shame that the legal system wasn't equipped to deal with it, and possibly no such system would be possible, but legal loopholes don't amount to "justice" - and I did say "If there were" in the subjunctive... ;)
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Sciolus » Sat May 23, 2020 8:36 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 2:33 pm
It's a sunny, windy day. Without some other form of power generation, wind and solar cannot reliably provide power - still nights occur. This is not to say wind and solar can't be of immense use, but we need to maintain power in all conditions, not just bright or windy ones.

That's why gas can't be fully replaced with wind and solar, and likely why the go ahead for more gas powered generation has been given.
No. The Drax case went through the planning process to the technocratic Planning Inspectorate, who evaluated it against the full range of public policy, and recommended it should be refused. The Secretary of State, who makes the final decision, overruled PINS. It is extremely unusual for PINS to refuse permission for any application that gets that far, and unprecedented for the SoS to go against PINS's recommendation.

This was a political decision.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Sat May 30, 2020 8:20 am

Because I’m a bit obsessed about this I’ve downloaded the National Grid ESO App. Many of the records relating to renewables have been set this year, I’m sure several will be broken again before the year is out. The longest standing record is min gas production in 2013. I’m willing to bet that quite a bit of the electricity on that day was produced by coal. However it’s striking that wind is producing so much electricity that we are asking wind farms to turn off, the wholesale electricity price has gone negative on several occasions and people are paid to charge their cars, but we still haven’t dropped gas power below that seen in 2013.
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(Also, 50 days no coal now)
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