The Death Of Fossil Fuels
Electricity
Since being introduced to it on bad science I’ve been addicted to checking Gridwatch. Today (11/11/19) we’ve consistently had over 10GW from wind, I’m hoping this time next year that will be a laughably small number.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
Re: Electricity
Opinion recently published in Le Monde:
Starts with this summary:
Unfortunately this is marked as "reserved for subscribers".« L’éolien en mer peut produire en masse une électricité à bas coût, à proximité des centres de consommation »
S’appuyant sur le dernier rapport de l’Agence internationale de l’énergie, le spécialiste du climat Stéphane His explique, dans une tribune au « Monde », que l’éolien maritime présente le bouquet énergétique décarboné le plus efficient.
Starts with this summary:
https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/20 ... _3232.htmlTribune. Devenu l’un des marchés les plus dynamiques du secteur des énergies renouvelables, l’éolien en mer a vocation à devenir une technologie de référence dans le domaine énergétique. Le dernier rapport de l’Agence internationale de l’énergie (AIE) souligne le potentiel « quasi illimité » d’un secteur porté par une croissance annuelle de près de 20 % et dont les coûts de production sont en chute...
The Death Of Fossil Fuels
Outside of the nut job coal miner suck-ups running Australia at the moment, it's a pretty standard position that coal's days are numbered. Renewables are continuing to dive in price. This has destroyed the economic viability of coal. In many locations it is now cheaper to build and operate new wind and solar farms than to simply fuel a fully paid off coal plant. You are seeing the consequences of this in places such as Texas where nary a coal plant is in the planning pipeline, there's a bit of gas generation but tens of gigawatts of wind and solar.
Oils is the next one to look down the barrel of the gun. BNP Paribas did an analysis as to the long term viability of oil. It will need to sell below $10/barrel for petrol to be cost competitive with renewable powered battery electric vehicles. Diesel gets away with about $20/barrel.
They had some interesting figures for the metric Energy Return on Capital Invested (EROCI). For the same capital outlay, today, renewables generate 5-6 times as much energy at the wheel of a BEV than does the equivalent capital invested in oil powering an ICE. That ratio is only going to swing more and more into renewables favour as they drop in price and oil reserves dwindle.
The article gives oil a 15-20 year window and only their incumbency is allowing them to tick on. Oil is as f.cked as coal, just with a slightly longer lead time.
Oils is the next one to look down the barrel of the gun. BNP Paribas did an analysis as to the long term viability of oil. It will need to sell below $10/barrel for petrol to be cost competitive with renewable powered battery electric vehicles. Diesel gets away with about $20/barrel.
They had some interesting figures for the metric Energy Return on Capital Invested (EROCI). For the same capital outlay, today, renewables generate 5-6 times as much energy at the wheel of a BEV than does the equivalent capital invested in oil powering an ICE. That ratio is only going to swing more and more into renewables favour as they drop in price and oil reserves dwindle.
The article gives oil a 15-20 year window and only their incumbency is allowing them to tick on. Oil is as f.cked as coal, just with a slightly longer lead time.
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
Interesting, particularly about the diesel vs gasoline difference, thanks. I may post that on my employer's intranet ![Wink ;-)](./images/smilies/icon_e_wink.gif)
![Wink ;-)](./images/smilies/icon_e_wink.gif)
Move-a… side, and let the mango through… let the mango through
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
Building windmills have virtually stopped in Germany because it's politically very difficult to get power from North where offshore wind is generated to South where factories need more. Reason: Environmentalists strongly oppose above-ground power lines.
Here in Norway we meet similar problems and most environmentalists don't understand and respect the technical challenges involved. They chant against "Monster-masts" and this popular slogan trumps the need to transmit power to where it's required.
Ongoing German debate on these matters is interesting and important. I follow such debate mainly on the Frankfurter Allgemeine and 3sat TV but that's exclusively in German. Der Spiegel may have material in English?
Here in Norway we meet similar problems and most environmentalists don't understand and respect the technical challenges involved. They chant against "Monster-masts" and this popular slogan trumps the need to transmit power to where it's required.
Ongoing German debate on these matters is interesting and important. I follow such debate mainly on the Frankfurter Allgemeine and 3sat TV but that's exclusively in German. Der Spiegel may have material in English?
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
I understand there’s a visual impact, but what are the environmental concerns about transmission lines?bmforre wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:35 amBuilding windmills have virtually stopped in Germany because it's politically very difficult to get power from North where offshore wind is generated to South where factories need more. Reason: Environmentalists strongly oppose above-ground power lines.
Here in Norway we meet similar problems and most environmentalists don't understand and respect the technical challenges involved. They chant against "Monster-masts" and this popular slogan trumps the need to transmit power to where it's required.
Ongoing German debate on these matters is interesting and important. I follow such debate mainly on the Frankfurter Allgemeine and 3sat TV but that's exclusively in German. Der Spiegel may have material in English?
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
Re: Electricity
Last year the minimum renewable supply (daily average) was about 5%, this year it's over 10% so far.
As actual power that was 2 GW and 3.6 GW
I would add nuclear in to that as a low carbon electricity source. I suspect that’s where the biggest debate will be on this forum at least.
As actual power that was 2 GW and 3.6 GW
I would add nuclear in to that as a low carbon electricity source. I suspect that’s where the biggest debate will be on this forum at least.
Last edited by Grumble on Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
Re: Electricity
And here’s the coal picture
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
Re: Electricity
I noticed our local coal powered station was supplying last week - which is relatively rare this year.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
Oh god, I bet it's the whole EM sensitivity and radiation rubbishGrumble wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:30 amI understand there’s a visual impact, but what are the environmental concerns about transmission lines?bmforre wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:35 amBuilding windmills have virtually stopped in Germany because it's politically very difficult to get power from North where offshore wind is generated to South where factories need more. Reason: Environmentalists strongly oppose above-ground power lines.
Here in Norway we meet similar problems and most environmentalists don't understand and respect the technical challenges involved. They chant against "Monster-masts" and this popular slogan trumps the need to transmit power to where it's required.
Ongoing German debate on these matters is interesting and important. I follow such debate mainly on the Frankfurter Allgemeine and 3sat TV but that's exclusively in German. Der Spiegel may have material in English?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
That was my first thought too.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.
Fintan O'Toole
Fintan O'Toole
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
Oil production will still be needed, even if not used for fuel, as oil provides many useful chemical feedstocks; this is currently something like 2-5% of the total oil extracted (sources vary). If the amount of oil used for fuel decreases, the number of producing reservoirs will have to also be cut, but won't end up as zero. It may interest economists to work out what the price of oil will do if this is the only usage, as there would be significant over-supply (especially from the Middle East). One thing I can guarantee, is that the economists will get it wrong (they always do!)bjn wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:50 pmOutside of the nut job coal miner suck-ups running Australia at the moment, it's a pretty standard position that coal's days are numbered. Renewables are continuing to dive in price. This has destroyed the economic viability of coal. In many locations it is now cheaper to build and operate new wind and solar farms than to simply fuel a fully paid off coal plant. You are seeing the consequences of this in places such as Texas where nary a coal plant is in the planning pipeline, there's a bit of gas generation but tens of gigawatts of wind and solar.
Oils is the next one to look down the barrel of the gun. BNP Paribas did an analysis as to the long term viability of oil. It will need to sell below $10/barrel for petrol to be cost competitive with renewable powered battery electric vehicles. Diesel gets away with about $20/barrel.
They had some interesting figures for the metric Energy Return on Capital Invested (EROCI). For the same capital outlay, today, renewables generate 5-6 times as much energy at the wheel of a BEV than does the equivalent capital invested in oil powering an ICE. That ratio is only going to swing more and more into renewables favour as they drop in price and oil reserves dwindle.
The article gives oil a 15-20 year window and only their incumbency is allowing them to tick on. Oil is as f.cked as coal, just with a slightly longer lead time.
"My interest is in the future, because I'm going to spend the rest of my life there"
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
As long as there is a residual demand for oil for some purposes, the whole of the oil will have to be used for something. So that might mean some things (eg petrol for motor-racing, classic cars etc.) remain relatively available as a by-products.
How useful are plant-based products for chemical feedstocks?
How useful are plant-based products for chemical feedstocks?
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
You could make any currently-oil-derived feedstock you like from plant-based sources if the economics are right. It’s just a question of capital investment in the kit, that and growing enough of the plants.
Move-a… side, and let the mango through… let the mango through
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
They kill huge numbers of birds and bats, especially during migration periods (meaning that the impact is international). Can post some references this evening if folk are interested.jimbob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:20 amOh god, I bet it's the whole EM sensitivity and radiation rubbishGrumble wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:30 amI understand there’s a visual impact, but what are the environmental concerns about transmission lines?bmforre wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:35 amBuilding windmills have virtually stopped in Germany because it's politically very difficult to get power from North where offshore wind is generated to South where factories need more. Reason: Environmentalists strongly oppose above-ground power lines.
Here in Norway we meet similar problems and most environmentalists don't understand and respect the technical challenges involved. They chant against "Monster-masts" and this popular slogan trumps the need to transmit power to where it's required.
Ongoing German debate on these matters is interesting and important. I follow such debate mainly on the Frankfurter Allgemeine and 3sat TV but that's exclusively in German. Der Spiegel may have material in English?
There is a similar issue with wind turbines, but those tend to be more localised whereas power cables in this instance would be stretching across an entire country. There is ongoing research into how to minimise impacts of cables but it's not there yet.
Obviously this has to be weighed against the negative impacts of climate change, coal mining etcetera, which is by no means straightforward. But please don't just dismiss environmentalists as a load of woolly-brained idiots before doing any research whatsoever (and I notice that bmforre didn't bother to link to anything the environmentalists have actually written).
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
Fair point.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:29 am
... Obviously this has to be weighed against the negative impacts of climate change, coal mining etcetera, which is by no means straightforward. But please don't just dismiss environmentalists as a load of woolly-brained idiots before doing any research whatsoever ...
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.
Fintan O'Toole
Fintan O'Toole
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
Mod note: at Grumble's request we've merged this thread with another on a similar topic.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
Around here, it's just "don't want big pylons near my million dollar home. Which is in the woods, so I'll never see them anyway".jimbob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:20 amOh god, I bet it's the whole EM sensitivity and radiation rubbishGrumble wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:30 amI understand there’s a visual impact, but what are the environmental concerns about transmission lines?bmforre wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:35 amBuilding windmills have virtually stopped in Germany because it's politically very difficult to get power from North where offshore wind is generated to South where factories need more. Reason: Environmentalists strongly oppose above-ground power lines.
Here in Norway we meet similar problems and most environmentalists don't understand and respect the technical challenges involved. They chant against "Monster-masts" and this popular slogan trumps the need to transmit power to where it's required.
Ongoing German debate on these matters is interesting and important. I follow such debate mainly on the Frankfurter Allgemeine and 3sat TV but that's exclusively in German. Der Spiegel may have material in English?
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
I thought it would be fear of heavy electricity.jimbob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:20 amOh god, I bet it's the whole EM sensitivity and radiation rubbishGrumble wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:30 amI understand there’s a visual impact, but what are the environmental concerns about transmission lines?bmforre wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:35 amBuilding windmills have virtually stopped in Germany because it's politically very difficult to get power from North where offshore wind is generated to South where factories need more. Reason: Environmentalists strongly oppose above-ground power lines.
Here in Norway we meet similar problems and most environmentalists don't understand and respect the technical challenges involved. They chant against "Monster-masts" and this popular slogan trumps the need to transmit power to where it's required.
Ongoing German debate on these matters is interesting and important. I follow such debate mainly on the Frankfurter Allgemeine and 3sat TV but that's exclusively in German. Der Spiegel may have material in English?
anyway, interesting about birds & bats dying boaf. Please do post more on that
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
I didn't realise powerlines were responsible for bird deaths - I'd be really interested in the references if it's not a hassle to share. I know that around where I live a lot of the powerlines have orange things hanging off them which I've always been told is to stop the swans from flying into them, but I'd somehow assumed that swans were particularly dumb or something.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:29 amThey kill huge numbers of birds and bats, especially during migration periods (meaning that the impact is international). Can post some references this evening if folk are interested.
There is a similar issue with wind turbines, but those tend to be more localised whereas power cables in this instance would be stretching across an entire country. There is ongoing research into how to minimise impacts of cables but it's not there yet.
Obviously this has to be weighed against the negative impacts of climate change, coal mining etcetera, which is by no means straightforward. But please don't just dismiss environmentalists as a load of woolly-brained idiots before doing any research whatsoever (and I notice that bmforre didn't bother to link to anything the environmentalists have actually written).
The power lines from the new Hinkley Point power station have been a source of local concern for years. A portion of it has gone underground, particularly through the Mendip Hills area of national beauty. From what I understand underground cabling is more expensive than overground but it does seem like a potential solution.
it's okay to say "I don't know"
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
I remember reading about cranes (or storks?) in South Africa flying into power lines. The reason given was that birds don’t necessarily look ahead, they look at the ground.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
My bold. So where will you do that then? Looks innocent
My understanding of plant based plastic is that they are still really expensive in carbon terms
"The large print giveth, and the small print taketh away"
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
With large birds like swans and storks there is also the issue of manoeuvrability: their wings are designed for powerful forward flight, often utilising air currents, and by the time they can see wires (especially in low visibility conditions) they simply can't swerve out of the way in time.
I'm on a course right now on various aspects of migration ecology, and flight mechanics have come up quite a bit - though more in the realm of basic science than applied conservation work.
I'm sure I've got some papers kicking around in my PDF mountain. I'll post some links tonight.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
Obviously my ‘just’ is doing some heavy lifting there. The idea of processing biomass from things like fast-growing trees (as currently used to substitute coal in power stations, for e.g.) in ‘biorefineries’ is fairly well advanced though.
Move-a… side, and let the mango through… let the mango through
Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
The idea is, the reality is not as cost effective as it might be, not least because the processing is just not energy efficient enough atm. Coca cola have just started marketing a plant based plastic bottle - i have it on reliable authority that it has a carbon footprint, in lifecycle costs that is 3x that of an ordinary plastic bottle.nekomatic wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:46 pmObviously my ‘just’ is doing some heavy lifting there. The idea of processing biomass from things like fast-growing trees (as currently used to substitute coal in power stations, for e.g.) in ‘biorefineries’ is fairly well advanced though.
I just wish there was a bit *moar funding* for this kind of tech though -there ar some fun possibilities. But there is no point in developing it if the lifecycle C cost isn't good enough.
"The large print giveth, and the small print taketh away"