The Death Of Fossil Fuels

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sheldrake
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by sheldrake » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:28 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:14 pm
But presumably Welcome Break on the M4 isn't deemed a public place? The company must own it all, the car park and the infrastructure and the rats in the food hall. Yes, need planning permission, but there aren't any neighbours to object to a row of chargers spoiling their view of the petrol station.
I agree, but I bet there will be pain involved in dealing with safety inspections etc..
The tricky bit must be getting enough electrons to each location through a grid built for the old world?
If they can run electric ovens and all that overhead lighting you'd have thought they can run cars, but an electrical engineer will know better.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by lpm » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:41 pm

My expectation is that supermarkets were built with enough electricitiness to fuel the inefficient fridges, freezers and lighting of their build era. A 30 year old building must today be run with far better equipment. Electricity is so expensive Tescos must have cut every electron they could from the budget.

On the other hand a lot of these stores have been extended. Warehouse space turned into store space, thanks to JIT deliveries reducing the need for warehouses as we've recently learned to our cost.

Same must apply everywhere? The lighting at Welcome Break must be LEDs etc etc. But bigger places than before?

My amateur assessment would be that old buildings must be cabled with more electricitiness than current efficiency standards require, and this spare capacity in the pipes could be diverted to chargers. But we don't necessarily see that in practice.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Little waster » Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:51 pm

Grumble wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:46 am
Get that application for solar in Morocco sorted
Nah we just need to fit the wind turbines with electric motors and on still days we can use them as giant fans to make more wind to blow the others around. Simples!

I haven't checked the numbers but I reckon they'll work out, f.ck thermodynamics!
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:16 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:41 pm
My expectation is that supermarkets were built with enough electricitiness to fuel the inefficient fridges, freezers and lighting of their build era. A 30 year old building must today be run with far better equipment. Electricity is so expensive Tescos must have cut every electron they could from the budget.

On the other hand a lot of these stores have been extended. Warehouse space turned into store space, thanks to JIT deliveries reducing the need for warehouses as we've recently learned to our cost.

Same must apply everywhere? The lighting at Welcome Break must be LEDs etc etc. But bigger places than before?

My amateur assessment would be that old buildings must be cabled with more electricitiness than current efficiency standards require, and this spare capacity in the pipes could be diverted to chargers. But we don't necessarily see that in practice.
Google finds me some answers.

a) "When you’ve chosen your charge point rating and decided how many you need, it’s time to consider the capacity of your electricity supply system. If you have a three-phase supply, you’re probably on a maximum demand tariff, and if you exceed the maximum demand agreed with your energy supplier, you’ll incur stiff financial penalties. But how close are you to your limit and will your new EV charge points push you over?"

Its possible that the tariffs are a form of demand management, if so they would be linked in some way to electricity generating capacity.

b) "The supply system is AC, but to charge a vehicle you need a DC supply so at some point in the charging system – either in the charger itself or in the vehicle – there is going to be a rectifier. Rectifiers are inherently non-linear loads that generate harmonics, and if the harmonics in your supply system are outside the limits prescribed by your energy supplier, you may be required to disconnect the load(s) that are causing the problem – which could well be your much needed EV charge point. [...] Excess harmonics in your supply system can cause heating and vibration in motors, heating in neutral conductors, poor performance of electronic devices, and many other problems that will end up costing you money. This means that you too will have a vested interested in making sure that harmonic levels are low and stay that way."

c) "Finally, let’s consider load balancing. If you have a three-phase supply and you’re installing three-phase charge points, this shouldn’t be an issue, but what about if you have a three-phase supply and you’re installing single-phase charge points? This can be problematic because even if you’re installing them in multiples of three and distributing them across the phases, there’s no guarantee that they will all be in use at the same time. The upshot is that with single-phase chargers, there’s always a risk that they will unbalance your supply."

Biggest problem I can think of is that a supermarket manager reading that may well think, 'that's too complicated, I'll leave it until things quieten down'.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:22 pm

Supermarkets do generally have a lot of roof space to install solar panels and car park space to install a container or two of batteries for demand smoothing (all DC).

I could see a fairly standard system being designed for installation at any building with an underutilized parking lot and some roof space. It wouldn't be a huge NRE cost for a supermarket chain to commission such a system even if it isn't already being developed.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:24 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:22 pm
Supermarkets do generally have a lot of roof space to install solar panels and car park space to install a container or two of batteries for damage smoothing (all DC).

I could see a fairly standard system being designed for installation at any building with an underutilized parking lot and some roof space.
I could see that happening if they are sure they can sell the electricity at a profit to people parking there. Or if they got government grants to install it.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:26 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:24 pm
dyqik wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:22 pm
Supermarkets do generally have a lot of roof space to install solar panels and car park space to install a container or two of batteries for damage smoothing (all DC).

I could see a fairly standard system being designed for installation at any building with an underutilized parking lot and some roof space.
I could see that happening if they are sure they can sell the electricity at a profit to people parking there. Or if they got government grants to install it.
Or just to keep people coming to the big out of town supermarkets when they don't need to buy cheap petrol at the same time. Selling you cheap rapid car charging while you shop is a possible market.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by monkey » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:24 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:22 pm
Supermarkets do generally have a lot of roof space to install solar panels and car park space to install a container or two of batteries for demand smoothing (all DC).

I could see a fairly standard system being designed for installation at any building with an underutilized parking lot and some roof space. It wouldn't be a huge NRE cost for a supermarket chain to commission such a system even if it isn't already being developed.
Not the UK, but I was in Atlanta the weekend before last. I saw a ground level carpark outside a hotel with solar panels over it. The panels covered all the parking spaces giving the cars some shade, but not over the lanes. Can't remember seeing any chargers, but I don't see why they couldn't be used for that, and I assumed there'd be a couple at least because it was a new build. With batteries you could do slow overnight charging, which seems the most sensible for a hotel.

Don't see much difference between that and a supermarket, apart from that they might want to provide fast charging immediately and so need moar electrons ready to go in the latter case.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:29 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:41 pm
My expectation is that supermarkets were built with enough electricitiness to fuel the inefficient fridges, freezers and lighting of their build era. A 30 year old building must today be run with far better equipment. Electricity is so expensive Tescos must have cut every electron they could from the budget.

On the other hand a lot of these stores have been extended. Warehouse space turned into store space, thanks to JIT deliveries reducing the need for warehouses as we've recently learned to our cost.

Same must apply everywhere? The lighting at Welcome Break must be LEDs etc etc. But bigger places than before?

My amateur assessment would be that old buildings must be cabled with more electricitiness than current efficiency standards require, and this spare capacity in the pipes could be diverted to chargers. But we don't necessarily see that in practice.
One of the reasons for kerbside lamppost chargers being a thing is that older sodium/fluorescent lamps have been replaced by much higher efficiency LED lamps, so there are amps to spare in the exisiting infrastructure. Or so I was informed.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:40 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:24 pm
dyqik wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:22 pm
Supermarkets do generally have a lot of roof space to install solar panels and car park space to install a container or two of batteries for damage smoothing (all DC).

I could see a fairly standard system being designed for installation at any building with an underutilized parking lot and some roof space.
I could see that happening if they are sure they can sell the electricity at a profit to people parking there. Or if they got government grants to install it.
Supermarkets chains such as Aldi in Australia have installed/are installing large rooftop solar arrays, both on super markets (about 100kW) and on distribution centres (up to 1.5MW) but are using the energy themselves. Aldi has 274 stores with rooftop solar, so that is about 27.5MW.


There aren’t that many BEVs to be fair.

You can also install solar in your carparks, just suspend them on frames above the parking bays, you get to shade your customer’s cars from the intense Australian heat and generate electricity at the same time.

ETA, or what Monkey said.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:49 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:40 pm
You can also install solar in your carparks, just suspend them on frames above the parking bays, you get to shade your customer’s cars from the intense Australian heat and generate electricity at the same time.

ETA, or what Monkey said.
This kind of shade is fairly useful for the efficiency/range of electric vehicles in hot sunny places, and snowy places as well. Cooling and heating EVs is a fair chunk of their energy usage, and for keeping the battery temperatures in check when sat charging it's also helpful to keep the few kW of heat from the midday sun off the car.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Gfamily » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:00 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:29 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:41 pm
My expectation is that supermarkets were built with enough electricitiness to fuel the inefficient fridges, freezers and lighting of their build era. A 30 year old building must today be run with far better equipment. Electricity is so expensive Tescos must have cut every electron they could from the budget.

On the other hand a lot of these stores have been extended. Warehouse space turned into store space, thanks to JIT deliveries reducing the need for warehouses as we've recently learned to our cost.

Same must apply everywhere? The lighting at Welcome Break must be LEDs etc etc. But bigger places than before?

My amateur assessment would be that old buildings must be cabled with more electricitiness than current efficiency standards require, and this spare capacity in the pipes could be diverted to chargers. But we don't necessarily see that in practice.
One of the reasons for kerbside lamppost chargers being a thing is that older sodium/fluorescent lamps have been replaced by much higher efficiency LED lamps, so there are amps to spare in the exisiting infrastructure. Or so I was informed.
In fact, Low Pressure Sodium lighting (the very orange lights) are not vastly different in efficiency compared to LEDs, and High Pressure Sodium are not orders of magnitude worse.

I've been trying to find figures for how much extra generating capacity will be required to hypothetically replace all Petrol/Diesel ICE engines for Car use.
Figures vary, but the consensus seems to be that if load management can be brought in, then it'll require about 6GW extra, or 18GW if not well managed.
This could represent 16-50% more than our current electricity peak demand.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-h ... icles-need

ETA - Along the way, I found some articles from 5/6 years ago, that were projecting about 1 million EVs in UK by 2020, whereas there seems to have been 'only' about 432,000 by the end of 2020 - and that includes PHEV, of which, I understand, a fair proportion are never plugged in (though the last 3-4 weeks may have changed that)
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:16 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:00 pm

ETA - Along the way, I found some articles from 5/6 years ago, that were projecting about 1 million EVs in UK by 2020, whereas there seems to have been 'only' about 432,000 by the end of 2020 - and that includes PHEV, of which, I understand, a fair proportion are never plugged in (though the last 3-4 weeks may have changed that)
I'd guess that the past year and a half of remote working, lockdowns, economic uncertainty, low availability of new cars, and much reduced driving has probably reduced that estimate by at least 200k, or delayed the rise by 18 months or more (I'm guessing that the estimated rise was roughly exponential, so about 350-400k sold in the last year of the prediction).

And then there's that other large economic uncertainty that affected the UK across that timeframe.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:46 pm

I did a back of the packet calculation in the Old Place, basically looking at primary fossil fuel energy usage for road transport, then taking into account comparative ICE and BEV efficiencies and came up with about 33% extra generation to electricify everything and anything on the road that burned dead dinosaurs. We have a few decades to do that.

You also need to consider the stonking amount of energy saved by not extracting, refining and distributing fossil fuels. I’ve seen figures that it takes around 4.5kWh just to refine a gallon of petrol, let alone extract and distribute it. That is enough to drive a BEV like a Tesla Model 3 just under 20 miles, note that the average UK ICE efficiency is 38.8 MPG. You are going to save a lot of electricity by not burning petrol.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by lpm » Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:43 pm

Sounds like the £2,500 subsidy on EVs <£35k is about to be removed by the government. Or reduced, or changed to cheaper cars only, or switched to vans.

If anyone's close to ordering best get on with it.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:46 pm

This is cool https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -road-trip
A team of students from the Netherlands are due to complete an 1,800-mile (3,000km) road trip across western Europe in a solar-powered camper van that they designed and built themselves.

The Stella Vita is designed for two passengers and has a kitchen, sitting area, bed, shower and toilet. Using solar energy alone, the vehicle can cover up to 450 miles on a sunny day, reaching a top speed of 75mph, as well as powering all the inside amenities, a TV and a laptop.

The vehicle has solar panels on the roof that can be expanded into a sun cover when parked. The van can also be charged through electric charging ports.

“The technology is there, we just have to change the way we think,” said 20-year-old Tijn ter Horst, one of the Eindhoven University of Technology students onboard. “If 22 students can design and build a vehicle like this in one year, then I’m sure companies could as well.”
You can shove your climate crisis up your arse!

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:15 am

lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:43 pm
Sounds like the £2,500 subsidy on EVs <£35k is about to be removed by the government. Or reduced, or changed to cheaper cars only, or switched to vans.

If anyone's close to ordering best get on with it.
Really? Just ahead of Cop26? They already reduced it this year once.
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Sat Oct 16, 2021 12:44 pm

Grumble wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:15 am
lpm wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:43 pm
Sounds like the £2,500 subsidy on EVs <£35k is about to be removed by the government. Or reduced, or changed to cheaper cars only, or switched to vans.

If anyone's close to ordering best get on with it.
Really? Just ahead of Cop26? They already reduced it this year once.
Probably so they can announce a new £1250 subsidy at COP26...

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by lpm » Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:11 pm

It wouldn't be a particularly competent move by the govt, but for them better than usual.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:06 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:11 pm
It wouldn't be a particularly competent move by the govt, but for them better than usual.
Yeah, it's more of a Cummings move, and they don't really have anyone that competent at PR anymore.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:23 pm

If the latest load of leaks are to be believed, it's because Sunak - despite his down-with-da-kidz cool chancellor image - wants to be known as a climate "sceptic" in order to win friends and influence people Tory voters.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... on-economy
Confidential documents leaked to the Observer reveal an extraordinary rift between Boris Johnson and his chancellor, Rishi Sunak, over the potential economic effects of moving towards a zero-carbon economy, with just weeks to go before the crucial Cop26 climate summit.

As Johnson prepares to position the UK at the head of global efforts to combat climate change and curb greenhouse gas emissions as host of the Glasgow Cop26 meeting, the documents show the Treasury is warning of serious economic damage to the UK economy and future tax rises if the UK overspends on, or misdirects, green investment.

Green experts said the “half-baked” and “one-sided” Treasury net-zero review presented only the costs of action on emissions, rather than the benefits, such as green jobs, lower energy bills and avoiding the disastrous impact of global heating. They said the review could be “weaponised” by climate-change deniers around the world before Cop26, undermining Johnson’s attempts at climate leadership on the global stage.
I know I keep banging on about the need for joined-up government response. But here we have the Treasury briefing against the Office for Budget Responsibility:
The Treasury’s approach is also starkly at odds with that of business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng and the analysis of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in a report published in July this year.

On the costs of moving towards net zero, the OBR said in its report: “Between now and 2050 the fiscal costs of getting to net zero in the UK could be significant, but they are not exceptional ... While unmitigated climate change would spell disaster, the net fiscal costs of moving to net zero emissions by 2050 could be comparatively modest.”

The Committee on Climate Change, the government’s statutory adviser, has also repeatedly said the costs of action are small and diminishing, at less than 1% of GDP by 2050, while the costs of inaction are large and rising.

While there are concerns over how the costs could fall on poorer households, the CCC chief executive Chris Stark has made clear that ministers can choose to distribute the costs and benefits fairly, through the design of green policies.
which would be embarrassing at the best of times, let alone on the most important issue for a generation which the UK is hosting a crucial global summit on in a matter of weeks.
Whitehall sources said there was a belief that Sunak was keen to position himself as something of a climate-change sceptic in order to boost his popularity with Tory party members, and draw comparisons with Johnson’s green enthusiasms. “Rishi clearly sees an interest in showing he is not really down with this green stuff. He wants Boris to own the whole agenda.”

A source at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy confirmed that the Treasury was “kicking back” against many of the green plans being advanced by No 10 and Kwarteng. “They are not climate change deniers but they are emphasising the short-term risks, rather than long-term needs, which is what we are emphasising.”
Clearly Sunak has worked out the optimum strategy for his political career: he can still outflank Johnson on c.ntery, and thus stand a chance of being crowned King of the c.nts, but in pretty much the only area of c.ntery where increasing it is socially acceptable amongst the ageing support-base of his party (because it won't affect them as much and, as c.nts, they don't care).
In contrast to the Treasury’s caution, Labour committed at its recent party conference to invest £28bn extra every year until 2030 to secure a “green transition” creating good jobs with decent wages in the process.
Just as well there's an election coming up, then.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:45 pm


UK ministers will put nuclear power at the heart of Britain’s strategy to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 in government documents expected as early as next week, alongside fresh details of its funding model.

Kwasi Kwarteng, business secretary, is to unveil an overarching “Net Zero Strategy” paper as soon as Monday, along with a “Heat and Building Strategy” and a Treasury assessment of the cost of reaching the 2050 goal.

The main strategy will have a heavy focus on Britain’s slow-moving and long-awaited nuclear power programme. The country’s existing reactors are due to be retired by 2035, with construction on just one large plant, Hinkley Point C, already under way.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson was expected to give the go-ahead to the strategy documents at a cabinet “away day” in the West Country on Friday.

The creation of a “regulated asset base” (RAB) model will be key to delivering a future fleet of large atomic power stations. The RAB funding model is already used for other infrastructure projects, such as London’s Thames Tideway super sewer.

Under the scheme, households will be charged for the cost of the plant via an energy levy long before it begins generating electricity, which could take a decade or more from when the final investment decision is taken.

The mechanism is designed to encourage investment by institutional investors, such as pension funds, by guaranteeing steady returns from early on. Legislation on the nuclear RAB model will be published later this month.

However, opponents of the model argue that consumers could be hit with cost of construction overrunning. French utility EDF plans to use an RAB model to finance a new 3.2 gigawatt plant at Sizewell in Suffolk, South East England.

In north Wales, US nuclear company Westinghouse is planning to revive plans for a nuclear power plant at Wylfa that was abandoned by Japan’s Hitachi in 2019.

Ministers are also backing smaller modular reactors (SMRs) which are being developed by a consortium led by Rolls-Royce. Supporters of SMRs say these could be built in factories and have lower costs and risks than large atomic plants.

SMRs were also a key part of French president Emmanuel Macron’s €30bn investment plan announced earlier this week to boost his country’s green and high-tech industries.

Kwarteng has set a target of 2035 for the UK’s electricity system to reach net decarbonisation, by drawing on a combination of nuclear power, renewables and “carbon capture and storage” (CCS) schemes attached to gas-fired power stations.

Companies involved in the CCS schemes, including BP, Drax Harbour Energy and Royal Dutch Shell, are awaiting a decision from the government about which projects will be developed first.

The document is expected to shy away from the controversial idea of asking the public to eat less meat, despite the high carbon footprint of the beef industry.

The Heat and Building Strategy, to be published alongside the wider net zero review, will include a new 2035 target for a ban on fitting new domestic gas boilers.

The government is at present drawing up plans to subsidise electric pumps with grants of £5,000 for air source heat pumps and £6,000 for ground source heat pumps.

The Treasury is also expected to publish within days a final document on the costs of reaching net zero, ahead of Glasgow hosting the global COP26 climate talks at the end of the month.

Its interim Net Zero Review, published in December, warned that forcing consumers to pay for carbon emissions could hurt low-income families the hardest, unless ministers provide support.

The Treasury has proposed that grants for electric cars be slashed from their current £2,500 per vehicle, a move that is being resisted by the transport and the business departments.

https://www.ft.com/content/e6426194-21e ... c337b350fd

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:13 pm

Oh FFS.

So basically subsidising underperforming nukes via financial shenanigans and betting on unproven SMR technologies. Totally nuts.

A massive opportunity cost.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:01 pm

Yeah wow that's super dumb, especially considering how slow the UK is at rolling out nukes.

Nothing against the tech as part of a strategy, but it's slow and expensive when we need rapid reductions in emissions.
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:24 pm

bjn wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:13 pm
Oh FFS.

So basically subsidising underperforming nukes via financial shenanigans and betting on unproven SMR technologies. Totally nuts.

A massive opportunity cost.
The storage issue for renewables isn’t fully sorted yet though, and so there is a negative availability price there. I think the storage problem might be resolved by the time SMRs are ready, but governments like certainty.
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

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