The Death Of Fossil Fuels

[Grumble]

Ah, the confidence of a mediocre man on a forum with no relevant expertise who knows the national electricity supply capacity better than National Grid, and has thoughts based on the close textual intepretation of a few paragraphs aimed at the general public, with minimal presentation of detailed numbers.

It was offered in evidence, so I scrutinised it. Are you suggesting it should be beyond questioning, and if so on what grounds?

It’s not beyond scrutiny, but it’s also not a detailed study or policy document. Engage with it on the basis of how it’s written. If you have reason to think there’s going to be a problem then fine.

As a counter to your scepticism about the feasibility of charging lots of vehicles on motorways I would point you towards the first dedicated electric vehicle charging station - they have a 5MW grid connection and are planning 99 more around the country in the next few years. This is now up and running, clearly demonstrating the plausibility. Hopefully it will also demonstrate viability. A large part of their income is planned to be from load shifting via the massive batteries they have on site.
https://www.gridserve.com/ev-power-overview/

[dyqik]

Ah, the confidence of a mediocre man on a forum with no relevant expertise who knows the national electricity supply capacity better than National Grid, and has thoughts based on the close textual intepretation of a few paragraphs aimed at the general public, with minimal presentation of detailed numbers.

It was offered in evidence, so I scrutinised it. Are you suggesting it should be beyond questioning, and if so on what grounds?

Why would you scrutinize something that is clearly aimed at giving concise answers to the general public's misconceptions, rather than the actual reports its answer was based on?

That link is perfectly good evidence that National Grid didn't think there's an issue. It's not intended to show why they think that.

[bmforre]

New electric power link connecting Germany and Norway now opening. Capacity 1400 MW.

Similar link to England being built and opening planned this coming year.
North Sea Link

Link to Scotland under discussion.

Hydropower storage in Norway is 50% of such storage capacity in Europe in total. And precipitaion herabouts is increasing with climate change, already noticeable so refill rate without pumping is climbing.

If BEV recharging clusters are supplied by 5 MW feeds one of these cable links to Norway can supply 280 such clusters.

[bjn]

New electric power link connecting Germany and Norway now opening. Capacity 1400 MW.

Similar link to England being built and opening planned this coming year.
North Sea Link

Link to Scotland under discussion.

Hydropower storage in Norway is 50% of such storage capacity in Europe in total. And precipitaion herabouts is increasing with climate change, already noticeable so refill rate without pumping is climbing.

If BEV recharging clusters are supplied by 5 MW feeds one of these cable links to Norway can supply 280 such clusters.

It will mainly be use it to top up short falls in UK power generation when the wind doesn't blow, and to ship back wind power to Norway when it does. Diversifying the grid both geographically and by generation type makes it much more robust.

[Gfamily]

Wow, we're back using coal (2%)

coal.png (67.06 KiB) Viewed 2536 times

[Grumble]

Wow, we're back using coal (2%)
coal.png

Yes, have been for a little while now. Even on a cloudy day in December though we were generating more via solar than coal when I checked this morning.

[Bird on a Fire]

Wow, we're back using coal (2%)
coal.png

I blame the Tories.

[dyqik]

Wow, we're back using coal (2%)
coal.png

Yes, have been for a little while now. Even on a cloudy day in December though we were generating more via solar than coal when I checked this morning.

I think they have to turn the power stations on occasionally to keep them ready to use of required. The equivalent of taking your car for a drive to charge the battery and stop the tires getting flat spots.

[Millennie Al]

Ah, the confidence of a mediocre man on a forum with no relevant expertise who knows the national electricity supply capacity better than National Grid, and has thoughts based on the close textual intepretation of a few paragraphs aimed at the general public, with minimal presentation of detailed numbers.

It was offered in evidence, so I scrutinised it. Are you suggesting it should be beyond questioning, and if so on what grounds?

It’s not beyond scrutiny, but it’s also not a detailed study or policy document. Engage with it on the basis of how it’s written. If you have reason to think there’s going to be a problem then fine.

No. I will scrutinise it on the basis that it is offered. If you claim that a paper called "On a Heuristic Viewpoint Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" is evidence that the moon is made of green cheese then I'll examine that paper to see if it says that in a convincing way.

As a counter to your scepticism about the feasibility of charging lots of vehicles on motorways I would point you towards the first dedicated electric vehicle charging station - they have a 5MW grid connection and are planning 99 more around the country in the next few years. This is now up and running, clearly demonstrating the plausibility. Hopefully it will also demonstrate viability. A large part of their income is planned to be from load shifting via the massive batteries they have on site.
https://www.gridserve.com/ev-power-overview/

Well, that's very nice, but it's quite obviously just a start - it's capacity is only 30 vehicles, so far fewer than the 300 you can easily see at a motorway service station. And, as far as I can find out, it's not up and running: https://mobile.twitter.com/GRIDSERVE_HQ ... 548035?p=v and no later tweet announcing an opening date.

However, you seem to be under the illusion that I am claiming that large scale charging is impossible. Of course it is. What I am saying is that we have a long way to go before we are at a point where it is sufficiently routine that it is no longer a worry for drivers.

[Grumble]

Wow, we're back using coal (2%)
coal.png

Yes, have been for a little while now. Even on a cloudy day in December though we were generating more via solar than coal when I checked this morning.

I think they have to turn the power stations on occasionally to keep them ready to use of required. The equivalent of taking your car for a drive to charge the battery and stop the tires getting flat spots.

They do, but this isn’t that. They’ve been routinely using coal for the last couple of months. Consistent with the gradual decline, but they aren’t ready to decommission them yet. Maybe some of the times the coal stations are fired up they aren’t strictly necessary, but at least once recently there was almost no wind and coal was definitely necessary.
https://gridwatch.co.uk/Coal

[FlammableFlower]

Had a rather interesting chat with JM today regarding a placement student in their fuel cells division - they've gone from fuel cell membrane production runs of in the 100s to 100,000s and in terms of lengths of fuel cell membranes produced - it's gone from centimetres per run to over 2 km. They've also gone from a loss-making research division to profit-making.

[Grumble]

Every now and then a battery company comes along and claims a breakthrough, however this might actually be one. Quantumscape claim to have demonstrated a cell that meets all the performance requirements. One note of caution, this is a single layer cell about the size of a playing card so not exactly ready for production. Another note of caution, results were obtained at 30°C, which while close to room temperature - and a lot better than other solid state batteries - isn’t quite showing a full range of operating temperatures. They showed some data down to -30°C, but then started talking about +30°C again, so I’m a little confused by that. However heating or cooling a battery to 30°C doesn’t seem like a major parasitic load even if it is a limitation.

https://electrek.co/2020/12/08/tesla-co ... akthrough/

[dyqik]

Cooling to 30C is probably a more common problem, rather than heating.

I need to change the coolant in my Prius' inverter system soon.

[bjn]

Interesting that they don’t mention Wh/kg. Also 80% after 800 cycles is well behind ~100% after 15,000 cycles for a near market LiOn battery.

[Grumble]

Interesting that they don’t mention Wh/kg. Also 80% after 800 cycles is well behind ~100% after 15,000 cycles for a near market LiOn battery.

They do mention Wh/kg in the presentation, I’ve slept now though and I didn’t take notes. It was impressive though. I’ll watch again in a bit. I didn’t have 90 mins to spare.

The 80% after 800 cycles was after pretty rough treatment, doing the equivalent of 15 min to 80% charging and heavy cycling to drain the battery. It may be that when it gets nearer to a production cell they’ll be able to mitigate to extend life - after all current Li ion batteries in vehicles keep spare capacity to reduce the duty cycle effect. Also worth pointing out that they exceeded 80% after 800 cycle. It is worth staying cautious about this though, because they were comparing the results to other solid state batteries not liquid electrolytes, probably for a reason.

[Grumble]

In fact Wh/kg is mentioned on a slide reproduced by electrek, it’s over 300 Wh/kg.

[bjn]

Thanks. I missed that slide and wasn’t going to sit through 90 minutes of video. From that slide they are saying somewhere around 350wh/kg. LiOns are in the range 100-250. That’s cool.

[Grumble]

Thanks. I missed that slide and wasn’t going to sit through 90 minutes of video. From that slide they are saying somewhere around 350wh/kg. LiOns are in the range 100-250. That’s cool.

A lot of the improvement in Wh/kg and Wh/L comes from the fact that they don’t manufacture the battery with an anode, the lithium metal anode forms during the first charge cycle.

[bjn]

The increase in specific energy density and volumetric density means that the supporting structures for a pack can be lighter. Lighter BEVs are more efficient, which means you can have smaller batteries. A lovely set of multiplier effects. Would be nice if it worked outside the lab.

We are already seeing a divergence in battery chemistries. This would be another option used for transport, while the newer more durable liquid electrolyte batteries would be used for storage.

[Grumble]

Would be nice if it worked outside the lab.

Yes, and that’s still to be demonstrated. These results do at least relate to a cell that in theory just needs more layers. It’s a “real” size for example. They also demonstrated multiple cells with consistent results, not just a single hero cell. There are definitely more steps to demonstrate before commercialisation though.

[Gfamily]

This is a point I'd not really considered with regard to range.

A report from a Campervan magazine about someone who took an EV camper through Norway, and up the Trollstegen mountain road.

... this North Cape single-track, with a 12% gradient and split up by 11 hairpin bends - it is very demanding with practically nowhere to stop, let alone turn around in a vehicle 6m long! Starting at the bottom of the Trollstegen with a range of 62 miles, Frank reached the summit with 31 miles of range to spare. After a descent, the remaining range was 56 miles when he arrived back where he started, thanks to regenerative braking recharging the battery on the way back down. "As an electric vehicle driver, you quickly develop a feel for this".

[Grumble]

This is a point I'd not really considered with regard to range.

A report from a Campervan magazine about someone who took an EV camper through Norway, and up the Trollstegen mountain road.

... this North Cape single-track, with a 12% gradient and split up by 11 hairpin bends - it is very demanding with practically nowhere to stop, let alone turn around in a vehicle 6m long! Starting at the bottom of the Trollstegen with a range of 62 miles, Frank reached the summit with 31 miles of range to spare. After a descent, the remaining range was 56 miles when he arrived back where he started, thanks to regenerative braking recharging the battery on the way back down. "As an electric vehicle driver, you quickly develop a feel for this".

There’s a mine in Switzerland which is up a mountain. They have an electric lorry to take the rock down to be processed. Because it goes down the hill full and up empty it charges going down more than it needs to go back up again!

https://youtu.be/vW8YTULYRVo

[jimbob]

This is a point I'd not really considered with regard to range.

A report from a Campervan magazine about someone who took an EV camper through Norway, and up the Trollstegen mountain road.

... this North Cape single-track, with a 12% gradient and split up by 11 hairpin bends - it is very demanding with practically nowhere to stop, let alone turn around in a vehicle 6m long! Starting at the bottom of the Trollstegen with a range of 62 miles, Frank reached the summit with 31 miles of range to spare. After a descent, the remaining range was 56 miles when he arrived back where he started, thanks to regenerative braking recharging the battery on the way back down. "As an electric vehicle driver, you quickly develop a feel for this".

A colleague drives a Leaf. We met up on Bleaklow last summer and his experience was similar but not as severe. Also the regenerative braking was far better for pad and disc wear.

[bjn]

Ars has a better write up of the solid electrolyte battery.

[Martin_B]

This is a point I'd not really considered with regard to range.

A report from a Campervan magazine about someone who took an EV camper through Norway, and up the Trollstegen mountain road.

... this North Cape single-track, with a 12% gradient and split up by 11 hairpin bends - it is very demanding with practically nowhere to stop, let alone turn around in a vehicle 6m long! Starting at the bottom of the Trollstegen with a range of 62 miles, Frank reached the summit with 31 miles of range to spare. After a descent, the remaining range was 56 miles when he arrived back where he started, thanks to regenerative braking recharging the battery on the way back down. "As an electric vehicle driver, you quickly develop a feel for this".

From the bottom to the top of the Trollstegen appears to be about 4 miles (6.3 km). So the EV lost 31 miles of range going up the 4 mile road!