The Death Of Fossil Fuels

[monkey]

Think I mentioned this in the thread before, but I've seen this in Atlanta. I thought it was a good idea.

[bjn]

Interesting article on Germany’s energy transition.

https://jeromeaparis.substack.com/p/how ... nys-energy

TL;DR
It’s generally going fine even they f.cked up a couple of things.

Key take aways to me,

• renewables now make up 40% of generation,
• as nuclear declined, gas generation has not increased to cover intermittency of renewables generation, because it was previously covering intermittency of demand,
• biggest mistakes were shutting down nukes before coal and not looking at gas imports as a strategic issue rather than a commercial issue
• the subsidies on German bills for renewables were offset by a decrease in wholesale prices
• the market mechanisms you use to bring in low carbon generation matters, CFDs work better than just putting a floor price on your subsidies.

[Gfamily]

I keep reading people moaning about how much the green energy levies have cost, generally in terms of "that expensive green crap!" - but I'm not sure how the economics works.
Given that wind is now (AIUI) the cheapest form of electricity production, it'd would be interesting to know what the situation would be if there hadn't been the subsidised development of no-carbon generation, which is currently providing c40% of our electricity across the year.

Does anyone know of an authoritative source of figures that will help me understand how the subsidies worked ?

[Grumble]

I keep reading people moaning about how much the green energy levies have cost, generally in terms of "that expensive green crap!" - but I'm not sure how the economics works.
Given that wind is now (AIUI) the cheapest form of electricity production, it'd would be interesting to know what the situation would be if there hadn't been the subsidised development of no-carbon generation, which is currently providing c40% of our electricity across the year.

Does anyone know of an authoritative source of figures that will help me understand how the subsidies worked ?

I’m not sure, but as I understand things, there isn’t any power that’s not subsidised in one way or another.

[Woodchopper]

Good news in a thread on the latest IEA report: https://twitter.com/scienceisstrat1/sta ... aRa5d3ugzg

Solar may surpass coal by 2027; the world will add as much renewable capacity from 2022 to 2027 as in the previous 20 years; a surge of investment will make renewable energy the largest source of global electricity generation by early 2025; the IEA’s forecast for renewables additions is up 30% from just one year ago; massive investment in China; huge rise in electric vehicles globally.

[Grumble]

Possibly deserving of a spin-off thread if this gains legs as a slight diversion, but in Life Beyond Plastic I can report that non-plastic sellotape is pretty much the same as plastic sellotape. Good step forward I reckon, was always slightly unsure about recycling paper with sellotape on it. Mind you, it isn’t paper so I’m not sure it belongs in paper recycling still, but it feels better. Is it actually biodegradable? Is it enough to buy “plastic free” when you’re not actually sure what the real benefits are? I’m more confused than when I started this post. Oh dear. Time for bed perhaps.

[FlammableFlower]

Wasn't Sellotape originally made from cellophane and therefore, way back, was biodegradable? Come a full circle of it's returned to bring biodegradable.

Can still remember that I could tell how long it'd be before we got home on journeys going south west on the M5 when you picked up the smell of the cellophane factory outside of Bridgwater. Had quite a potent whiff.

[FlammableFlower]

Who would have guessed oil companies were very good at modelling fossil fuel burning induced climate change all along?
Source paper here

[Grumble]

Who would have guessed oil companies were very good at modelling fossil fuel burning induced climate change all along?
Source paper here

I think this has been known in outline for years based on internal memos, but this fills in the detail nicely. What a shower of bastards Exxon are.

[FlammableFlower]

Who would have guessed oil companies were very good at modelling fossil fuel burning induced climate change all along?
Source paper here

I think this has been known in outline for years based on internal memos, but this fills in the detail nicely. What a shower of bastards Exxon are.

Yeah, that sums them up. I haven't looked at the Science paper in detail, but I did note that the Guardian article mentions that Exxon had worked out that there would be fossil fuel-based global warming in the 1970s, but some other oil companies had twigged even earlier (although perhaps not to the same level of accuracy and detail that Exxon had).

[jimbob]

Who would have guessed oil companies were very good at modelling fossil fuel burning induced climate change all along?
Source paper here

https://xkcd.com/2500/

"Spring 2016, I read the 1982 Exxon report"

[Sciolus]

I see the Climate minister is standing up to the fossil fuel industry.

*checks notes*

Correction, the Climate minister is standing for the fossil fuel industry.

[dyqik]

There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights, with electric hydrofoil/wing in ground effect ekranoplans being funded by airlines in Hawaii and Japan, among others.

https://beatofhawaii.com/japan-airlines ... der-fleet/

[bjn]

Interesting article on the rapidly increasing use of industrial heat pumps replacing gas heating in Europe. It also introduces the “Sherman Tank” as a unit of volume.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/europe-i ... heat-pumps

[Grumble]

There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights, with electric hydrofoil/wing in ground effect ekranoplans being funded by airlines in Hawaii and Japan, among others.

https://beatofhawaii.com/japan-airlines ... der-fleet/

I can imagine Greece buying a few of them, not to mention Malaysia and the Philippines.

[Grumble]

Interesting article on the rapidly increasing use of industrial heat pumps replacing gas heating in Europe. It also introduces the “Sherman Tank” as a unit of volume.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/europe-i ... heat-pumps

Very interesting. Industrial heat pumps were covered in Cleaning Up recently, https://overcast.fm/+fkiz_8UpM
The discussion felt slightly abstract when I first listened but it certainly seems to be progressing in reality

[EACLucifer]

There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights, with electric hydrofoil/wing in ground effect ekranoplans being funded by airlines in Hawaii and Japan, among others.

https://beatofhawaii.com/japan-airlines ... der-fleet/

Ekranoplans are a fantastic bit of technology, and one that will potentially benefit a lot from modern computing and fly-by-wire. It's also possible to build an aircraft that functions as an ekranoplan when it can, but is also capable of more conventional flight if necessary, which could be useful for short hops between bodies of water, or to allow them to operate from conventional airfields.

[TimW]

There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights...

Footage here of how they will look on the Portsea Island - Channel Islands route:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-h ... e-57483039

[Woodchopper]

There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights...

Footage here of how they will look on the Portsea Island - Channel Islands route:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-h ... e-57483039

Interesting. Looks like they will have the pros and cons of other ground effect vehicles. Faster, cheaper and lower power use than convectional aircraft. Using the sea rather than an expensive land based runway will save a lot of money and allow for departure from close to the middle of some large urban areas on the coast.

But, its going to be difficult in heavy seas and high winds. Also a vehicle going at high speed close to the surface of the water will be a greater risk of collisions than a ship. The ekranoplan might be severely damaged by something that a passenger ferry wouldn't notice.

[dyqik]

There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights...

Footage here of how they will look on the Portsea Island - Channel Islands route:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-h ... e-57483039

Interesting. Looks like they will have the pros and cons of other ground effect vehicles. Faster, cheaper and lower power use than convectional aircraft. Using the sea rather than an expensive land based runway will save a lot of money and allow for departure from close to the middle of some large urban areas on the coast.

But, its going to be difficult in heavy seas and high winds. Also a vehicle going at high speed close to the surface of the water will be a greater risk of collisions than a ship. The ekranoplan might be severely damaged by something that a passenger ferry wouldn't notice.

Historically, seaplanes were how tourist access to Hawaii started - Pan-Am Clipper flights - with roughly the same considerations. These are more efficient than eitherseaplanes or ferries.

Note there are no regular ferry services in Hawaii - the distances are too great for them to be really viable for passengers, and the last time a fast ferry service was attempted, it was shut down by protests.

How much the airline had to do with organizing the protests is a question for your cynicism.

[Grumble]

There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights...

Footage here of how they will look on the Portsea Island - Channel Islands route:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-h ... e-57483039

Interesting. Looks like they will have the pros and cons of other ground effect vehicles. Faster, cheaper and lower power use than convectional aircraft. Using the sea rather than an expensive land based runway will save a lot of money and allow for departure from close to the middle of some large urban areas on the coast.

But, its going to be difficult in heavy seas and high winds. Also a vehicle going at high speed close to the surface of the water will be a greater risk of collisions than a ship. The ekranoplan might be severely damaged by something that a passenger ferry wouldn't notice.

Definitely need to see the bad weather performance. I believe hydrofoils also suffer in heavy weather, although I’ve seen footage of electric hydrofoils cutting through big ship wakes quite nicely.

[Gfamily]

There seems to be some progress being made with electric interisland hop type flights...

Footage here of how they will look on the Portsea Island - Channel Islands route:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-h ... e-57483039

At first I read this as a flight to Portsea Island, but then I read on.
Though the proposal is cross channel, to Cherbourg rather than the Channel Isles.

I'm not sure who the customer base would be, as from the picture it looks likely to be foot passengers only, so there would be limited appeal without significant infrastructure at the other end for fast onward travel to a variety of destinations.

[bjn]

Coal economics get more and more suckier in the USA. Just the opex of coal is now more than the all in cost of new build wind and solar, with the exception of one coal plant.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/01 ... oal-plant/

[Little waster]

Coal economics get more and more suckier in the USA. Just the opex of coal is now more than the all in cost of new build wind and solar, with the exception of one coal plant.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/01 ... oal-plant/

Interesting that the one exception is (unsurprisingly) the most modern of the last major wave of coal-fired power stations and was literally built next door to it's supplying coal mine to minimise transportation costs making it a special case.

That doesn't bode well for 'generic coal power station".

[IvanV]

Coal economics get more and more suckier in the USA. Just the opex of coal is now more than the all in cost of new build wind and solar, with the exception of one coal plant.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/01 ... oal-plant/

Fossil fuel has become sufficiently expensive in general at the moment, that probably the opex of any kind of fossil fuel station is higher than the levelised average cost of wind and solar. It is noticeable how much less gas is being used at the moment in Britain, in comparison to last year. See Gridwatch.

But that's the levelised average cost of an intermittent source vs the opex of a "dispatchable" source. So still leaves you with the problem of what to do when there those intermittent sources of energy are being intermittent. You still need the back-up in some form.