Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels
Posted: Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:26 am
I suspect the immediate solution for aviation will be biofuels, coupled with reductions and modal shifts to reduce flight numbers.
Ideally synthetic hydrocarbons, with the carbon pulled from the air or cheap bio carbon that doesn't compete with food, however that is currently very expensive and is doing an R&D.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:26 amI suspect the immediate solution for aviation will be biofuels, coupled with reductions and modal shifts to reduce flight numbers.
Not really in competition. There’s overproduction of corn and other crops in the US. Farmers are facing bankruptcy due to low prices (which are about half what they were during 2011-2014). If US farmers stopped producing for bio fuels they couldn’t switch to supplying it all to the consumer market.bjn wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:18 am
Food is already in competition for biofuels. Currently 1/3 of corn grown in the USA is for ethanol production, that is something like 120,000 km^2. It nearly all goes into cars and trucks and is a horrendously inefficient process for turning sunlight into vehicle motion. PV at 20% efficiency would yield around 24,000GW in an equivalent area. Note that the US currently has something like 1,100GW generation in total.
Or even vast areas of wind turbines and PV. Possibly interleaved with trees.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:01 pmNot really in competition. There’s overproduction of corn and other crops in the US. Farmers are facing bankruptcy due to low prices (which are about half what they were during 2011-2014). If US farmers stopped producing for bio fuels they couldn’t switch to supplying it all to the consumer market.bjn wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:18 am
Food is already in competition for biofuels. Currently 1/3 of corn grown in the USA is for ethanol production, that is something like 120,000 km^2. It nearly all goes into cars and trucks and is a horrendously inefficient process for turning sunlight into vehicle motion. PV at 20% efficiency would yield around 24,000GW in an equivalent area. Note that the US currently has something like 1,100GW generation in total.
The situation is still mad as the land used for growing biofuels could be reforested instead and become a carbon sink. All that would require would be a tweak to the subsidy regime and farmers would start planting vast areas of trees.
I'm going to be mean and say they shouldn't be growing anything there for which there isn't a demand. Stop farming it, let the buffalo roam again.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:01 pmNot really in competition. There’s overproduction of corn and other crops in the US. Farmers are facing bankruptcy due to low prices (which are about half what they were during 2011-2014). If US farmers stopped producing for bio fuels they couldn’t switch to supplying it all to the consumer market.bjn wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:18 am
Food is already in competition for biofuels. Currently 1/3 of corn grown in the USA is for ethanol production, that is something like 120,000 km^2. It nearly all goes into cars and trucks and is a horrendously inefficient process for turning sunlight into vehicle motion. PV at 20% efficiency would yield around 24,000GW in an equivalent area. Note that the US currently has something like 1,100GW generation in total.
The situation is still mad as the land used for growing biofuels could be reforested instead and become a carbon sink. All that would require would be a tweak to the subsidy regime and farmers would start planting vast areas of trees.
Much of that land is a long way from major population centres, meaning lots and lots of infrastructure needed to wire it all up. So you could focus the power generation in the bits nearer where people live, and the rewilding in the more remote parts.
I did a google and it looks like they planted hundreds of millions of trees during the 30s to try to stop the dust bowl. So it would be feasible. https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-02-03/ ... der-threatdyqik wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:15 pmOr even vast areas of wind turbines and PV. Possibly interleaved with trees.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:01 pmNot really in competition. There’s overproduction of corn and other crops in the US. Farmers are facing bankruptcy due to low prices (which are about half what they were during 2011-2014). If US farmers stopped producing for bio fuels they couldn’t switch to supplying it all to the consumer market.bjn wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:18 am
Food is already in competition for biofuels. Currently 1/3 of corn grown in the USA is for ethanol production, that is something like 120,000 km^2. It nearly all goes into cars and trucks and is a horrendously inefficient process for turning sunlight into vehicle motion. PV at 20% efficiency would yield around 24,000GW in an equivalent area. Note that the US currently has something like 1,100GW generation in total.
The situation is still mad as the land used for growing biofuels could be reforested instead and become a carbon sink. All that would require would be a tweak to the subsidy regime and farmers would start planting vast areas of trees.
That said, I don't know if the Great Plains were that forested when Europeans arrived, so I'm not clear if reforestation would work that well.
This does depend on the pressure the hydrogen is kept at. At the pressure of some of the hydrogen tanks being discussed there would be quite significant differences in weight between full (at hundreds of atmospheres) and empty (potentially lighter than air).shpalman wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:12 pmJust about the only positive about hydrogen powered aircraft is that the fuel tanks don't need to be at the centre of gravity (since they aren't much heavier full than they are empty). This means that the wings can be made with skinny low-drag profiles. Of course, the wing has work to do, but it's also a very significant source of drag.
That’s a good deal lighter than pressure tanks for sure. Not much more than twice the weight of a single skin tank.bjn wrote: ↑Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:00 amTrying to find papers on LH cryogenic tank weights, the only one I could find was this one from 2007. If I read it right (they hid the details for the diameter of the tank), for a 102” diameter tank, they reckon on 150lb for a dual skinned vacuum tank suitable for use in aviation. This is only the two shells, none of the valves, mounts, pumps, inner support rod, etc... Assuming my sums are right, this tank would hold a maximum of 1,100 kg of LH, weigh of the shells alone is around 68kg, and stand 270cm tall.
The cryotanks on the space shuttle lost something like 1% per hour, which needed venting. Probably better than that now. This shouldn’t be a problem while flying, just vent straight into the engines to burn it. Being stuck on a runway for too long might end up being a problem though. As Matatouille pointed out, these have to go into the fuselage, increasing the size of it and/or cutting down on useable space for passengers or cargo.Grumble wrote: ↑Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:02 amAt work we use liquid nitrogen a fair bit. In those tanks (with no active refrigeration) there is always some boil off leading to pressurisation of the ullage space. Every now and then the pressure builds to a point where the tank vents a bit of gas. With hydrogen you will need to be careful where the vent goes, especially if you have electronics and engines around. DSEAR regulations come into play, making stuff intrinsically safe is very expensive.
Passengers? Imagine being the first airline to buy such planes, marketing the lack of windows will be a very hard sell.
Probably some safety rules would need updating, as things like emergency safety instructions tell you not to open the emergency exit if you see flames outside.
My knowledge of this specifically may be out of date, but windows in the walls (i.e. not in doors) are a safety thing too. Blinds have to be open on takeoff/landing so passengers' eyes can be accustomed to external light conditions in case there is a need for speedy evacuation. In eliminating windows the onus would be on the manufacturer to demonstrate no loss of safety or new introduced hazards, there are precidents for regulations evolving with such changes.
I've not heard of that, but am likely wrong. I can't think of any situations where they couldn't use the doors & only want to peek inside rather than reach for the saws.