The Death Of Fossil Fuels

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Grumble
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Tue Oct 06, 2020 3:02 pm

I’m glad that the advantages of wind power are obvious even to bumbling idiots like Boris. It’s a slight pity that we don’t have much of a British industry to make the turbines, most of the recent ones have been installed by Ørsted I think, who are Danish.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Little waster » Tue Oct 06, 2020 4:10 pm

Grumble wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 12:38 pm

Drake and Raleigh were slave traders in their commercial lives.
Yet another example of unpatriotic Marxist teaching doing Britain's proud history down just because things happen to be true.

We didn't create the largest empire the world has ever seen by paying any attention to pifflingly minor things like reality, as our unbroken string of victories from Yorktown to Singapore via Khartoum, Isandlwana and Kabul (passim) will attest.

Don't worry in future, all such inconvenient facts will be purged from school textbooks and children will instead get a proper traditional education focussed on British exceptionalism, the biographies of glorious British Prime Ministers of the 2020s, creating spreadsheets in Excel and 12 surprising ways of cooking your pet.
People who use Godwin's Law are worse than Hitler.

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Martin Y
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Martin Y » Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:50 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:09 am
And boy, does he lay into that idiot who said a few years ago wind can't pull the skin off a rice pudding. What a fool that guy was, huh?
But perhaps he really does remember idiots who said it 20 years ago. So when he said it 7 years ago it wasn't really idiocy, it was just plagiarism.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by JQH » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:37 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:50 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:09 am
And boy, does he lay into that idiot who said a few years ago wind can't pull the skin off a rice pudding. What a fool that guy was, huh?
But perhaps he really does remember idiots who said it 20 years ago. So when he said it 7 years ago it wasn't really idiocy, it was just plagiarism.
Are you suggesting our Great Leader would stoop to plagiarism? I'm shocked. Shocked I tell you.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

Fintan O'Toole

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dyqik
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:51 am

JQH wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:37 pm
Martin Y wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:50 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:09 am
And boy, does he lay into that idiot who said a few years ago wind can't pull the skin off a rice pudding. What a fool that guy was, huh?
But perhaps he really does remember idiots who said it 20 years ago. So when he said it 7 years ago it wasn't really idiocy, it was just plagiarism.
Are you suggesting our Great Leader would stoop to plagiarism? I'm shocked. Shocked I tell you.
Is that your own phrase for expressing surprise?

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Little waster » Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:39 am

dyqik wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:51 am
JQH wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:37 pm
Martin Y wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:50 pm

But perhaps he really does remember idiots who said it 20 years ago. So when he said it 7 years ago it wasn't really idiocy, it was just plagiarism.
Are you suggesting our Great Leader would stoop to plagiarism? I'm shocked. Shocked I tell you.
Is that your own phrase for expressing surprise?
I think it is a direct quote from a Johann Hari interview of Jesus Christ.
People who use Godwin's Law are worse than Hitler.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:21 am

bjn wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:37 pm
Interesting paper in Nature Energy. I’ve only read the press release and the summary as it’s behind a paywall. Would be interesting to read the actual paper (hint hint).

Empirically, deployment of nuclear power does not lead to significantly reduced carbon emissions, unlike deployment of renewables. Renewables are something like 7x better at lowering emissions. Also, nukes and renewables anti correlate, they don’t play well together and tend to crowd each other out. This was seen consistently across all countries. They analysed 123 countries over 25 years to come to those conclusions.
“The evidence clearly points to nuclear being the least effective of the two broad carbon emissions abatement strategies, and coupled with its tendency not to co-exist well with its renewable alternative, this raises serious doubts about the wisdom of prioritising investment in nuclear over renewable energy. Countries planning large-scale investments in new nuclear power are risking suppression of greater climate benefits from alternative renewable energy investments.”
Not only uneconomic, but not very good either.
The paper is now available to read/download free here https://www.academia.edu/44237582/Diffe ... lear_power
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Grumble
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:08 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:21 am
bjn wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:37 pm
Interesting paper in Nature Energy. I’ve only read the press release and the summary as it’s behind a paywall. Would be interesting to read the actual paper (hint hint).

Empirically, deployment of nuclear power does not lead to significantly reduced carbon emissions, unlike deployment of renewables. Renewables are something like 7x better at lowering emissions. Also, nukes and renewables anti correlate, they don’t play well together and tend to crowd each other out. This was seen consistently across all countries. They analysed 123 countries over 25 years to come to those conclusions.
“The evidence clearly points to nuclear being the least effective of the two broad carbon emissions abatement strategies, and coupled with its tendency not to co-exist well with its renewable alternative, this raises serious doubts about the wisdom of prioritising investment in nuclear over renewable energy. Countries planning large-scale investments in new nuclear power are risking suppression of greater climate benefits from alternative renewable energy investments.”
Not only uneconomic, but not very good either.
The paper is now available to read/download free here https://www.academia.edu/44237582/Diffe ... lear_power
Thanks boaf, I’ll try to read that properly.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Grumble
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:31 am

I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:42 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:21 am
bjn wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:37 pm
Interesting paper in Nature Energy. I’ve only read the press release and the summary as it’s behind a paywall. Would be interesting to read the actual paper (hint hint).

Empirically, deployment of nuclear power does not lead to significantly reduced carbon emissions, unlike deployment of renewables. Renewables are something like 7x better at lowering emissions. Also, nukes and renewables anti correlate, they don’t play well together and tend to crowd each other out. This was seen consistently across all countries. They analysed 123 countries over 25 years to come to those conclusions.
“The evidence clearly points to nuclear being the least effective of the two broad carbon emissions abatement strategies, and coupled with its tendency not to co-exist well with its renewable alternative, this raises serious doubts about the wisdom of prioritising investment in nuclear over renewable energy. Countries planning large-scale investments in new nuclear power are risking suppression of greater climate benefits from alternative renewable energy investments.”
Not only uneconomic, but not very good either.
The paper is now available to read/download free here https://www.academia.edu/44237582/Diffe ... lear_power
tx!

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:05 pm

The world’s best solar power schemes now offer the “cheapest…electricity in history” with the technology cheaper than coal and gas in most major countries.

That is according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2020. The 464-page outlook, published today by the IEA, also outlines the “extraordinarily turbulent” impact of coronavirus and the “highly uncertain” future of global energy use over the next two decades.

Reflecting this uncertainty, this year’s version of the highly influential annual outlook offers four “pathways” to 2040, all of which see a major rise in renewables. The IEA’s main scenario has 43% more solar output by 2040 than it expected in 2018, partly due to detailed new analysis showing that solar power is 20-50% cheaper than thought.

Despite a more rapid rise for renewables and a “structural” decline for coal, the IEA says it is too soon to declare a peak in global oil use, unless there is stronger climate action. Similarly, it says demand for gas could rise 30% by 2040, unless the policy response to global warming steps up.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-no ... nfirms-iea

So, some good news on the price of renewable energy - but the death of fossil fuels isn't going to happen quickly enough unless we really step up the policy responses, fast.
“One of the penalties of an ecological education is that one lives alone in a world of wounds.”
― Aldo Leopold, A Sand County Almanac (1949)

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:53 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:05 pm
The world’s best solar power schemes now offer the “cheapest…electricity in history” with the technology cheaper than coal and gas in most major countries.

That is according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2020. The 464-page outlook, published today by the IEA, also outlines the “extraordinarily turbulent” impact of coronavirus and the “highly uncertain” future of global energy use over the next two decades.

Reflecting this uncertainty, this year’s version of the highly influential annual outlook offers four “pathways” to 2040, all of which see a major rise in renewables. The IEA’s main scenario has 43% more solar output by 2040 than it expected in 2018, partly due to detailed new analysis showing that solar power is 20-50% cheaper than thought.

Despite a more rapid rise for renewables and a “structural” decline for coal, the IEA says it is too soon to declare a peak in global oil use, unless there is stronger climate action. Similarly, it says demand for gas could rise 30% by 2040, unless the policy response to global warming steps up.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-no ... nfirms-iea

So, some good news on the price of renewable energy - but the death of fossil fuels isn't going to happen quickly enough unless we really step up the policy responses, fast.
All good, but the IEA is full of sh.t when it comes to its predictions of renewables, it always drastically underestimate the growth of renewables, I'm not expecting anything different in this case. Add a few multiples to their predictions to get some where near what it will be.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:02 pm

California allows for “community choice aggregators” as an alternative way of procuring power. Eight such aggregators have ganged together and have published a request to offers for 500MW of “long duration” power storage, which means over 8 hours worth of power, so at least 4GWh in this case. Each project must deliver at least 50MW and have up to six years to complete. This is important as it creates a market for long term storage systems. California has stated that they need 1GW of such storage by 2026, the major commercial suppliers have yet to put out request for storage, but will probably do so soon.

Solutions to the sun don’t shine problem in the offing.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:05 pm

So grid storage batteries have dropped in price by 70% over 3 years, and are continuing to drop. This is from the US’s EIA, not the IEA cited above. The EIA are good at collating and analysing historical data, but are about as rubbish with their predictive models as the IEA. For example they estimate that here would be 5.9 GW of storage deployed over the “next few years” in the US. In the Texas grid there is already over 18GW of storage scheduled for completion by 2022.

Some interesting modelling has been done, of a the reliability supply for a range of generation and storage mixes in the USA. With 12 hours of storage and overbuilding of renewables you can hit very high percentages of supply reliability (80-98% in their scenarios). Throw in some HVDC lines and some gas generation in reserve for the corner cases and you have a very low carbon grid. 12 hours storage costs about a Gulf War.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:22 pm


monkey
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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by monkey » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:34 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:22 pm
Full paper here.
Ta. I was just looking up how much a Gulf war costs. Turns out it's 2 - 2.4 Gigadollars (all in, long term), so this is only ~1/2 a Gulf war.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by monkey » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:56 pm

Whoops, brainfart. Should be Teradollars.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:21 am

monkey wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:34 pm
bjn wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:22 pm
Full paper here.
Ta. I was just looking up how much a Gulf war costs. Turns out it's 2 - 2.4 Gigadollars (all in, long term), so this is only ~1/2 a Gulf war.
Or 500 CoVID stimuli.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by Grumble » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:15 am

Thank bjn, just spent a while reading the comments on the ars technica article too, which was time well spent.
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by bjn » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:48 am

Grumble wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:15 am
Thank bjn, just spent a while reading the comments on the ars technica article too, which was time well spent.
Ars comments are the best, some really knowledgeable peeps on there.

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Re: The Death Of Fossil Fuels

Post by dyqik » Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:07 pm

dyqik wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:21 am
monkey wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:34 pm
bjn wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:22 pm
Full paper here.
Ta. I was just looking up how much a Gulf war costs. Turns out it's 2 - 2.4 Teradollars (all in, long term)...
Or a CoVID stimuli.
Fixed for the correction above.

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