Bolivia

[nekomatic]

So Morales is out amid allegations of election fraud, and the predictable leftist commentators* are all ‘omg CIA-backed military coup!’, and the people who you'd expect to rubbish the PLC’s are rubbishing the PLC’s citing Bolivian commentators who support the allegations of election fraud. So far, so Venezuela.

But then I came across Kevin Cashman, who has what seems like a well argued take that this time the PLC’s have it right.

I think there are one or two people here who take an interest in Latin America, can anyone help me understand who to believe here? I did raise an eyebrow at ‘Yet the Supreme Court ruled that term limits were unconstitutional’, which sounds like it needs a bit of unpacking, but is there anything else?

* I’m an unpredictable centre-leftist commentator, obvs

[Pris]

The timeline as I understand it:

-People didn't understand how counting works, media fanned it
-Official count came in, opposition screamed fraud
-After some talking new elections were announced, with watchers from the OAS and the UNO

That very same day the military coup happened and 'asked' Morales to resign.

Still don't get where all the Morales=Dictator comes from...

[underhill]

All the stuff about interpretation of the vote count seems fair enough, but it does all fall down at that first step:

Kevin Cashman @kevinmcashman 11 Nov
He was initially barred from running for another term by term limits. He sought a referendum to abolish term limits, but it was narrowly defeated. Yet the Supreme Court ruled that term limits were unconstitutional, so he was permitted to run again.

Just waiting to see if the PLCs row in behind Trump when he tries that trick.

[edit for grammar]

[secret squirrel]

If a left leaning government in South America is ousted by the military and your first thought isn't "CIA backed coup" then you obviously haven't been paying attention for the past 70 years.

[dyqik]

If a left leaning government in South America is ousted by the military and your first thought isn't "CIA backed coup" then you obviously haven't been paying attention for the past 70 years.

Haven't you heard? The CIA is part of the leftist deep state that supports AOC with George Soros's money and that wants to take your guns and install socialism now.

[secret squirrel]

If a left leaning government in South America is ousted by the military and your first thought isn't "CIA backed coup" then you obviously haven't been paying attention for the past 70 years.

Haven't you heard? The CIA is part of the leftist deep state that supports AOC with George Soros's money and that wants to take your guns and install socialism now.

I mean, the deep state is real, but it's sure as hell not leftist. It's kind of funny how so many Democratic Party liberals love the CIA and their ilk now, due to their shared hatred of Trump. One of the only nice things I can say about Trump is that the 'intelligence community' and their fellow travelers don't like him.

[dyqik]

If a left leaning government in South America is ousted by the military and your first thought isn't "CIA backed coup" then you obviously haven't been paying attention for the past 70 years.

Haven't you heard? The CIA is part of the leftist deep state that supports AOC with George Soros's money and that wants to take your guns and install socialism now.

I mean, the deep state is real, but it's sure as hell not leftist. It's kind of funny how so many Democratic Party liberals love the CIA and their ilk now, due to their shared hatred of Trump. One of the only nice things I can say about Trump is that the 'intelligence community' and their fellow travelers don't like him.

The deep state is not a real thing in any meaningful sense.

Anyway, this thread is about Bolivia, not the US intelligence community and US foreign policy think tanks etc.

[secret squirrel]

The deep state is not a real thing in any meaningful sense.

Anyway, this thread is about Bolivia, not the US intelligence community and US foreign policy think tanks etc.

Of course it's real and meaningful. It's just not formal. The idea that patronage networks and vested financial interests don't have a big impact is absurd. There's a fairly small group of people whose power to manipulate the world exceeds that of ordinary people by multiple orders of magnitude. If you don't think the worldly manifestations of their shared cultural values and interests can be meaningfully described as a 'deep state' then I don't know what to tell you.

[dyqik]

The deep state is not a real thing in any meaningful sense.

Anyway, this thread is about Bolivia, not the US intelligence community and US foreign policy think tanks etc.

Of course it's real and meaningful. It's just not formal. The idea that patronage networks and vested financial interests don't have a big impact is absurd. There's a fairly small group of people whose power to manipulate the world exceeds that of ordinary people by multiple orders of magnitude. If you don't think the worldly manifestations of their shared cultural values and interests can be meaningfully described as a 'deep state' then I don't know what to tell you.

Can you please take this to a different thread.

[secret squirrel]

Can you please take this to a different thread.

I think the existence or otherwise of powerful, quasi-state groups whose interests are, hypothetically, served by things like the overthrow of leftist governments is pretty relevant to Bolivia as it happens. Denying the existence of such groups necessarily takes a stance on events in Bolivia, and disallowing further discussion of them in the thread makes it impossible to argue for certain interpretations of these events.

[dyqik]

Can you please take this to a different thread.

I think the existence or otherwise of powerful, quasi-state groups whose interests are, hypothetically, served by things like the overthrow of leftist governments is pretty relevant to Bolivia as it happens. Denying the existence of such groups necessarily takes a stance on events in Bolivia, and disallowing further discussion of them in the thread makes it impossible to argue for certain interpretations of these events.

Internal groups are quite capable of doing things to protect their perceived self-interest on their own, without substantial assistance from outside groups.

[secret squirrel]

Internal groups are quite capable of doing things to protect their perceived self-interest on their own, without substantial assistance from outside groups.

True. It's perfectly possible that, despite it being in the interests of powerful American groups and the kind of thing they were historically right up in, the CIA didn't have anything significant to do with the coup in Bolivia. But then there are various questions about the media coverage, the nature of the relationship between the new regime and American (and other) interests going forward, etc. Precedent says this will go badly for the poorer Bolivians, but really, really well for some rich Bolivians and particular international commercial interests.

[secret squirrel]

What happened in Bolivia.

[bolo]

This may provide some useful information and links.

[secret squirrel]

This may provide some useful information and links.

I mean, why would the US government be anything other than scrupulously honest and thorough?

[bolo]

Think what you like. I know the author, and she is scrupulously honest and thorough.

ETA: Does it say something you actually think is wrong, or did you just assume when you saw the .gov URL?

[secret squirrel]

Think what you like. I know the author, and she is scrupulously honest and thorough.

ETA: Does it say something you actually think is wrong, or did you just assume when you saw the .gov URL?

No individual claim leaps out as wrong exactly. It's more about spin, context and omissions. It presents the US as an essentially disinterested party mainly concerned with the strength of democratic institutions in Bolivia. I have no doubt that the person who wrote the report is sincere in her beliefs. People who entertain the idea that America is a malevolent force don't often get to write reports for the US government. It's just that we know from history that the idea of the US impartially caring about democracy in other countries is laughably false.

[Bird on a Fire]

FWIW the recent right-wing coup in Brazil occurred with relatively little direct US involvement. There are plenty of domestic and international businesses with their eyes on political power and natural resources and so on in South America, and disinformation is incredibly cheap.

As for Morales, he has done great things for the poor in Bolivia and had up until now appeared to be more or less free from implication in corruption. However, he is clearly trying to remain in power after term limits say his time should be up. It's a shame when these very charismatic and capable people don't cultivate a circle of competent folk around them to continue their good work after their inevitable retirement. Perhaps the saying for South American socialists should be "You either die get assassinated by the CIA as a hero, or live long enough to become the villain".

[secret squirrel]

FWIW the recent right-wing coup in Brazil occurred with relatively little direct US involvement. There are plenty of domestic and international businesses with their eyes on political power and natural resources and so on in South America, and disinformation is incredibly cheap.

As for Morales, he has done great things for the poor in Bolivia and had up until now appeared to be more or less free from implication in corruption. However, he is clearly trying to remain in power after term limits say his time should be up. It's a shame when these very charismatic and capable people don't cultivate a circle of competent folk around them to continue their good work after their inevitable retirement. Perhaps the saying for South American socialists should be "You either die get assassinated by the CIA as a hero, or live long enough to become the villain".

I think the words 'relatively little' say a lot there. I don't think the CIA had a big role in this one either. But they didn't not support it if you see what I mean. I'd be surprised if they hadn't 'let it be known' to the coup plotters that the US would back them in spirit if nothing else. In fact, I'm told there's leaked audio of the coup organizers saying words to that effect, though I can't understand Spanish so I can't check it myself.

As for term limits, isn't it true that Morales was the one who introduced them in the first place? Or is that misinformation? I mean, four terms doesn't seem like a long time in itself. Morales is obviously a very admirable man, and the fight against corporate imperialism isn't an abstract thing over there. If he felt staying on for another (elected, don't forget!) term was in the interests of his country I wouldn't want to argue against him.

[discovolante]

FWIW the recent right-wing coup in Brazil occurred with relatively little direct US involvement. There are plenty of domestic and international businesses with their eyes on political power and natural resources and so on in South America, and disinformation is incredibly cheap.

As for Morales, he has done great things for the poor in Bolivia and had up until now appeared to be more or less free from implication in corruption. However, he is clearly trying to remain in power after term limits say his time should be up. It's a shame when these very charismatic and capable people don't cultivate a circle of competent folk around them to continue their good work after their inevitable retirement. Perhaps the saying for South American socialists should be "You either die get assassinated by the CIA as a hero, or live long enough to become the villain".

I think the words 'relatively little' say a lot there. I don't think the CIA had a big role in this one either. But they didn't not support it if you see what I mean. I'd be surprised if they hadn't 'let it be known' to the coup plotters that the US would back them in spirit if nothing else. In fact, I'm told there's leaked audio of the coup organizers saying words to that effect, though I can't understand Spanish so I can't check it myself.

As for term limits, isn't it true that Morales was the one who introduced them in the first place? Or is that misinformation? I mean, four terms doesn't seem like a long time in itself. Morales is obviously a very admirable man, and the fight against corporate imperialism isn't an abstract thing over there. If he felt staying on for another (elected, don't forget!) term was in the interests of his country I wouldn't want to argue against him.

Even if you can't understand Spanish, do you know where the audio can be heard? It's possible other people on here may understand. Along with evidence of its authenticity?

[tom p]

The deep state is not a real thing in any meaningful sense.

Anyway, this thread is about Bolivia, not the US intelligence community and US foreign policy think tanks etc.

Of course it's real and meaningful. It's just not formal. The idea that patronage networks and vested financial interests don't have a big impact is absurd. There's a fairly small group of people whose power to manipulate the world exceeds that of ordinary people by multiple orders of magnitude. If you don't think the worldly manifestations of their shared cultural values and interests can be meaningfully described as a 'deep state' then I don't know what to tell you.

I think that calling what the CIA and corporate america does in training terrorists and funding coups in left-wing Latin American countries the deep state is to misuse the term.
I understood the term to mean the machinery of the US state would conspire against the president; however interference in Latin America and the rest of the world is very much America's thing and they are just doing it covertly and providing (im)plausible deniability to the executive.

[secret squirrel]

I think that calling what the CIA and corporate america does in training terrorists and funding coups in left-wing Latin American countries the deep state is to misuse the term.
I understood the term to mean the machinery of the US state would conspire against the president; however interference in Latin America and the rest of the world is very much America's thing and they are just doing it covertly and providing (im)plausible deniability to the executive.

But's it's the same machinery that conspires against the president that organizes the coups, and the same influence networks that spin these activities. Sometimes literally the same people, in the case of the numerous intelligence agencies, but more generally you can see them as manifestations of the same thing. I mean, there's no organization that calls it self the 'deep state' and has meetings and such like, but there are dominant schools of thought and attitude that give the state a distinct character independent of whichever administration is formally in charge.

[secret squirrel]

Even if you can't understand Spanish, do you know where the audio can be heard? It's possible other people on here may understand. Along with evidence of its authenticity?

Here's one place, but you have to download a file. I heard it somewhere where I could just play the recordings without downloading, but I can't find it now and it's past my bedtime. I'll try to dig it out tomorrow.

[secret squirrel]

Even if you can't understand Spanish, do you know where the audio can be heard? It's possible other people on here may understand. Along with evidence of its authenticity?

Here's one place, but you have to download a file. I heard it somewhere where I could just play the recordings without downloading, but I can't find it now and it's past my bedtime. I'll try to dig it out tomorrow.

I think this is the right audio (soundcloud link).

Edit: I think this page has all of them.

Edit 2: I'm trying to find some kind of confirmation of what's going on in the audio. The most convincing thing I can find is this from a major Mexican newspaper. Again it's in Spanish, but Google translate does a reasonable job.

[secret squirrel]

Claims of anti-coup protesters being killed in Bolivia.