Covid-19 the unlockdown
- shpalman
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown
You can tell if the numbers are going up, by whether the numbers are going up. Over the past week or so, they've started coming down, while the fraction of tests coming back positive is stable at about 6% if not slowly decreasing. What we don't have anymore is the numbers of people tested rather than the numbers of tests, and we know there are issues with that number, but if you decide not to believe the data then anything could be anything.
I do agree, though, that it's not enough that they should start to come down, but that the numbers should actually be low, before anything gets relaxed.
Cancel Christmas, I don't care.
I do agree, though, that it's not enough that they should start to come down, but that the numbers should actually be low, before anything gets relaxed.
Cancel Christmas, I don't care.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown
There are other variables.
For example, if school attendence drops from 90% to 80% - with entire schools sending pupils home for a week or a full year group or a class of 30 - then transmission will slow. Currently attendence in secondary schools has dropped to below 70% in some areas. Or if students a hall of residence fences in students for two weeks.
I'd bet the schools crisis is a significant reason why R has dropped a bit.
For example, if school attendence drops from 90% to 80% - with entire schools sending pupils home for a week or a full year group or a class of 30 - then transmission will slow. Currently attendence in secondary schools has dropped to below 70% in some areas. Or if students a hall of residence fences in students for two weeks.
I'd bet the schools crisis is a significant reason why R has dropped a bit.
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- Bird on a Fire
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown
I think looking at estimates of R is only really necessary if the number of positive tests is going down for a few weeks: if they're going up R is very likely >1; if they're going down, it would still be prudent to check that that's unlikely to be because of stochastic variation.shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:49 pmYou can tell if the numbers are going up, by whether the numbers are going up. Over the past week or so, they've started coming down, while the fraction of tests coming back positive is stable at about 6% if not slowly decreasing. What we don't have anymore is the numbers of people tested rather than the numbers of tests, and we know there are issues with that number, but if you decide not to believe the data then anything could be anything.
I do agree, though, that it's not enough that they should start to come down, but that the numbers should actually be low, before anything gets relaxed.
Cancel Christmas, I don't care.
And yes, I think it's much more important to get the absolute number low, rather than worrying about the rate of change alone. They didn't bother the first time round either, though.
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- tenchboy
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown
(By) Relaxing the Restrictions over the Chrismus Holiday = (We are) Throwing Covid a Lifeline.
Best description I've heard so far.
Best description I've heard so far.
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- sTeamTraen
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown
Much excitement this lunchtime at the news that Manchester will unlock into Tier 3 and Liverpool into Tier 2 ("to punish Andy Burnham and reward Joe Anderson", whatever). But I can't help feeling that this tweet from Liverpool is a bit tone-deaf. It's not like they've just been awarded the Olympics.
Something something hammer something something nail
- Tessa K
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown
I'm not a fan of Christmas either and five days seems like a lot even being generous to people who want to see family.
No one in government has even mentioned New Year's Eve yet. While there won't be any big public celebrations, there is no way to stop house parties with associated hugging, snogging and general exchange of bodily fluids at midnight.
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- Clardic Fug
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown
I wouldn't be surprised if a large number of people still turn up in central London to mark the New Year. It will be interesting as all the transport arrangements that are usually in place won't be. Getting in will be ok but getting home might be 'fun'
Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown
Reminds me of the time my brother went clubbing in central Birmingham and it snowed a foot whilst he was in there.OneOffDave wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:52 pmI wouldn't be surprised if a large number of people still turn up in central London to mark the New Year. It will be interesting as all the transport arrangements that are usually in place won't be. Getting in will be ok but getting home might be 'fun'
Hundreds of people ended up trudging through the snow along the Aston Expressway at 3am.
- shpalman
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown
snow can show up out of nowhere around here tooheadshot wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:04 pmReminds me of the time my brother went clubbing in central Birmingham and it snowed a foot whilst he was in there.OneOffDave wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:52 pmI wouldn't be surprised if a large number of people still turn up in central London to mark the New Year. It will be interesting as all the transport arrangements that are usually in place won't be. Getting in will be ok but getting home might be 'fun'
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
- Tessa K
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Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown
Tiers of a clown.
Re: Covid-19 the unlockdown
Exactly - R seems to fall between "not technical enough to be that useful for epidemiology as superspreading is so important" and "too technical for easy analysis or estimation"shpalman wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:49 pmYou can tell if the numbers are going up, by whether the numbers are going up. Over the past week or so, they've started coming down, while the fraction of tests coming back positive is stable at about 6% if not slowly decreasing. What we don't have anymore is the numbers of people tested rather than the numbers of tests, and we know there are issues with that number, but if you decide not to believe the data then anything could be anything.
I do agree, though, that it's not enough that they should start to come down, but that the numbers should actually be low, before anything gets relaxed.
Cancel Christmas, I don't care.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation