Starmer

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monkey
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Re: Starmer

Post by monkey » Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:46 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:01 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:41 pm
Even 1997 wasn't particularly strong - the Tories had lost their overall majority by the time of the election, and only had 324 seats.
Is it just me, or were there more by-elections back then? You hardly hear about them these days, but I remember even in the 1980s when Thatcher had a decent majority, people would get rather exercised by them.
Looking at the lists on wiki, they seem to be going on at about the same rate (an estimate, I've not bothered counting and dividing). There seem to be fewer seat changes though.

2010 to now

1979 - 2010
AMS wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:14 pm
On Labour & Scotland, the potential for Scottish Independence is the bigger problem than winning back their seats. A hung parliament with Labour as largest party would probably end up as a Lab/SNP coalition or confidence and supply deal, either of which put the SNP seats in the helpful* column for Labour (unless anyone thinks the Nats could cut a deal with the Tories?). But independence wipes these seats out and further entrenches the Tory majority in England.
Yes, Scotland being independent would make the problem permanent, but that's not a problem for the next election, there will be no Referendum with a Tory Majority of 80. And I would assume that allowing a 2nd referendum in return for support from the SNP, which would be a step in that direction, so very risky for Labour.

I reckon the solution is more proportional representation (I like the Irish way), the Tories have it too easy in England because of FPTP and Labour would be less dependent on Scottish MPs. But I'm not sure how popular it would be as a policy. Amusingly (to me anyway), it normally seems to gain a bit of traction right after an election, but that doesn't seem to last.

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Re: Starmer

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:19 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:01 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:41 pm
Even 1997 wasn't particularly strong - the Tories had lost their overall majority by the time of the election, and only had 324 seats.
Is it just me, or were there more by-elections back then? You hardly hear about them these days, but I remember even in the 1980s when Thatcher had a decent majority, people would get rather exercised by them.
There were 10 deaths of Tory MPs between the GEs in 1992 and 1997, which is a lot, as well as four defections. There were 8 Labour MP deaths in that parliament, including one Terry Patchett.

In the 1997-2001 parliament, there were 6 Labour deaths and 3 Tory deaths (including one who died seven days after winning his seat).
2001-05 there were just 4 Labour deaths and no Tories.
2005-10 there were 7 Labour deaths and 1 Tory.
2010-15 there were 6 Labour deaths and no Tories.
2015-17 there were 4 Labour deaths and no Tories.
Since 2017 there has been just 1 Labour death and no Tories.

What seems to have happened is that the Tories have become a lot, lot better at staying alive whilst serving as MPs. I don't know if it was all the sex with prostitutes, cocaine habits, or what, but they've certainly got their act together. Only one Tory MP has died in the last twenty years (Eric Forth*).

Labour also seem to be dying less than they did. The Blair years killed off Labour MPs at a rate of 1.3 per year, Brown the same. The Coalition government was 1.2 MPs per year for Labour, and post-2015 5 MPs in 5.5 years (0.9 MPs per year). Not really enough data yet to say what the Johnson years will bring, but Labour do seem still more intent on dying than their opponents.

Only three other serving MPs have died in that time, I think - 1 UUP, 1 Lib Dem and 1 independent (former Labour).


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Re: Starmer

Post by jimbob » Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:40 pm

AMS wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:14 pm
I read it rather than watched it, and it seemed good on paper. I like that he's realised Labour don't need to preach to the converted.

On Labour & Scotland, the potential for Scottish Independence is the bigger problem than winning back their seats. A hung parliament with Labour as largest party would probably end up as a Lab/SNP coalition or confidence and supply deal, either of which put the SNP seats in the helpful* column for Labour (unless anyone thinks the Nats could cut a deal with the Tories?). But independence wipes these seats out and further entrenches the Tory majority in England.
Exactly.

It's something that Corbyn never grasped. Far happier scoring points amongst those who never moved from the sixth-form and thought that when the government was doing badly, it was time to see about introducing unpopular ideas.

Best example because it was wrong on all levels except a reflexive "Britain is bad" was during the Cumbrian floods, where he suggested that maybe Britain and Argentina could have joint sovereignty over the Falklands.
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Re: Starmer

Post by plodder » Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:41 pm

I think the Scottish independence issue will evaporate once the impracticalities of the NI border become apparent - the SNP will look like fools. Labour need to offer greater devolved power within the union to gradually undermine the SNP.

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Re: Starmer

Post by bjn » Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:48 pm

plodder wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:41 pm
I think the Scottish independence issue will evaporate once the impracticalities of the NI border become apparent - the SNP will look like fools. Labour need to offer greater devolved power within the union to gradually undermine the SNP.
Will it? The situation is somewhat different.

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Re: Starmer

Post by Little waster » Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:21 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:19 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:01 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:41 pm
Even 1997 wasn't particularly strong - the Tories had lost their overall majority by the time of the election, and only had 324 seats.
Is it just me, or were there more by-elections back then? You hardly hear about them these days, but I remember even in the 1980s when Thatcher had a decent majority, people would get rather exercised by them.
There were 10 deaths of Tory MPs between the GEs in 1992 and 1997, which is a lot, as well as four defections. There were 8 Labour MP deaths in that parliament, including one Terry Patchett.

In the 1997-2001 parliament, there were 6 Labour deaths and 3 Tory deaths (including one who died seven days after winning his seat).
2001-05 there were just 4 Labour deaths and no Tories.
2005-10 there were 7 Labour deaths and 1 Tory.
2010-15 there were 6 Labour deaths and no Tories.
2015-17 there were 4 Labour deaths and no Tories.
Since 2017 there has been just 1 Labour death and no Tories.

What seems to have happened is that the Tories have become a lot, lot better at staying alive whilst serving as MPs. I don't know if it was all the sex with prostitutes, cocaine habits, or what, but they've certainly got their act together. Only one Tory MP has died in the last twenty years (Eric Forth*).

Labour also seem to be dying less than they did. The Blair years killed off Labour MPs at a rate of 1.3 per year, Brown the same. The Coalition government was 1.2 MPs per year for Labour, and post-2015 5 MPs in 5.5 years (0.9 MPs per year). Not really enough data yet to say what the Johnson years will bring, but Labour do seem still more intent on dying than their opponents.

Only three other serving MPs have died in that time, I think - 1 UUP, 1 Lib Dem and 1 independent (former Labour).


*Proper c.nt. Glad he's dead.
It’s probably been helped by the fact since the FTP Act was introduced we’ve been having GEs on average* every two years**.

Shorter parliaments give more opportunities for older and sicker MPs to not seek re-election rather than trying to hang in there to avoid a by-election to just die in the traces.

There’s probably a lot more churn now as well as Brexit and polarisation have seen a lot of “moderates” from the big parties simply withdraw from politics or defect then lose their seat like UKIP’s occasional MP, the brief return of the SDP and TInGe.



*well median anyway

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Re: Starmer

Post by Matatouille » Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:32 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:48 pm
plodder wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:41 pm
I think the Scottish independence issue will evaporate once the impracticalities of the NI border become apparent - the SNP will look like fools. Labour need to offer greater devolved power within the union to gradually undermine the SNP.
Will it? The situation is somewhat different.
Alternatively NI border will iron out all the wrinkles with a UK-EU border, with the fallout to settle on the Tories. When the NI border is eventually working as well as it can, SNP can say "We'll have some of that except with the fewer crossing places as exist between England/Scotland, Oh and after indy we're asking to get back into the EU ASAP."

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Re: Starmer

Post by jdc » Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:12 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:19 pm
*Proper c.nt.
The annual "Eric Forth Memorial Award" was subsequently established, 'for the MP who had done most to carry on Eric's work'. The first winner of this award was Philip Davies.

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Re: Starmer

Post by discovolante » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:30 pm

As far as transport-related PR mishaps go, is this one better or worse than Jeremy Corbyn's fake-sitting-on-a-train-floor-photo-op-scandal? I'd say worse.
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Re: Starmer

Post by TimW » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:48 pm

Nah, it was only a Deliveroo.

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Re: Starmer

Post by dyqik » Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:34 pm

discovolante wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:30 pm
As far as transport-related PR mishaps go, is this one better or worse than Jeremy Corbyn's fake-sitting-on-a-train-floor-photo-op-scandal? I'd say worse.
Since I have no idea what you're talking about, I'm going with better.

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Re: Starmer

Post by Stephanie » Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:36 pm

dyqik wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:34 pm
discovolante wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:30 pm
As far as transport-related PR mishaps go, is this one better or worse than Jeremy Corbyn's fake-sitting-on-a-train-floor-photo-op-scandal? I'd say worse.
Since I have no idea what you're talking about, I'm going with better.
Believe it might be this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54701336
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Re: Starmer

Post by dyqik » Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:50 pm

Stephanie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:36 pm
dyqik wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:34 pm
discovolante wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:30 pm
As far as transport-related PR mishaps go, is this one better or worse than Jeremy Corbyn's fake-sitting-on-a-train-floor-photo-op-scandal? I'd say worse.
Since I have no idea what you're talking about, I'm going with better.
Believe it might be this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54701336
Well, that's definitely a meh, particularly given the Tory male driver constituency that hate cyclists.

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Re: Starmer

Post by discovolante » Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:55 pm

The Mail has juiced it up: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... claim.html
'How did you not see me?' Deliveroo cyclist berated Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer after he crashed into his electric bike 'while trying to perform a u-turn close to a busy junction near his London home', witnesses claim

  • EXCLUSIVE: Keir Starmer crashed into cyclist trying to U-turn, witnesses say
  • Eyewitnesses also claimed that the cyclist was a Deliveroo rider on electric bike
  • Sir Keir's office say he was trying to park and was not performing a U-turn
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Re: Starmer

Post by Vertigowooyay » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 pm

So he was involved in a road accident - which may well have been his fault - but stayed until an ambulance arrived and reported to the police later.

This seems like the right thing to do.

I wonder if we can find a similar example across the house?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 72686.html
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Re: Starmer

Post by Little waster » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:29 pm

Vertigowooyay wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 pm
So he was involved in a road accident - which may well have been his fault - but stayed until an ambulance arrived and reported to the police later.

This seems like the right thing to do.

I wonder if we can find a similar example across the house?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 72686.html
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Re: Starmer

Post by lpm » Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:34 pm

Anyone remember that leader Labour used to have, years ago? The useless one. Piers Corbyn's brother.

Anyway, he's been kicked out of the party.
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Re: Starmer

Post by lpm » Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:39 pm

Turns out the guy was anti-Semitic.

If only there had been an obscure internet forum about sciency stuff full of Labour members, where one person was able to demonstrate this guy's anti-Semitism in advance of him becoming leader, in lengthy and detailed posts in between getting abuse from Tom P.
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Re: Starmer

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:38 pm

I'm not sure I'm following this latest bit of lpm performance art.

Corbyn has been suspended from Labour for saying that the scale of antisemitism in Labour has been exaggerated for political reasons (as he should have been - the EHRC found that he managed the problem hopelessly, as we all know, and to dismiss the issue still is inadequate and disappointing). AFAICT the suspension is over his subsequent failure to acknowledge and apologise for mistakes, rather than for having been a useless leader. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54730425

But I'm not sure what point lpm is trying to make by exaggerating the scale of antisemitism in Labour for political reasons.
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Re: Starmer

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:07 pm

Regardless of the rights and wrong of the suspension, I'm sure that this issue will be handled carefully, maturely, thoughtfully and sensitively by all supporters of the Labour party.
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Re: Starmer

Post by bolo » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:14 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:07 pm
Regardless of the rights and wrong of the suspension, I'm sure that this issue will be handled carefully, maturely, thoughtfully and sensitively by all supporters of the Labour party.
Good one. I lol'ed.

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Re: Starmer

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:26 pm

It's going to be a shitshow isn't it :(

I came onto this thread to post the Daily Fail article about Starmer crashing into a cyclist "on the way to his tailor", and make some remark about how that incident exemplifies several differences between the two leaders. Maybe something about Starmer didn't see the cyclist, but Corbyn's never seen a tailor, I dunno.

Mind you, I've never seen a tailor either: I'm not a nineteenth century aristocrat, don't wear fancy dress and I'm not loaded.
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Re: Starmer

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:28 pm

I've never seen a tailor either, but I probably would've done if I'd served as Director of Public Prosecutions.
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Re: Starmer

Post by Grumble » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:32 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:26 pm
It's going to be a shitshow isn't it :(

I came onto this thread to post the Daily Fail article about Starmer crashing into a cyclist "on the way to his tailor", and make some remark about how that incident exemplifies several differences between the two leaders. Maybe something about Starmer didn't see the cyclist, but Corbyn's never seen a tailor, I dunno.

Mind you, I've never seen a tailor either: I'm not a nineteenth century aristocrat, don't wear fancy dress and I'm not loaded.
My dad always went to a tailor for his suits. I’m sure if you go to Saville Row it’s very expensive, but if you go to an old Jewish tailor in Manchester (and it was traditionally a very Jewish trade in Manchester, for some reason) it’s not much more expensive than buying a decent suit off the peg.
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Re: Starmer

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:37 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:28 pm
I've never seen a tailor either, but I probably would've done if I'd served as Director of Public Prosecutions.
Yeah, me too.

Or leader of the Labour party, for that matter.

Or probably even just as an MP. They're all pretty loaded, and if you've got to wear a suit all day it might as well be a comfortable one.

I am thinking about getting a proper suit made next time work/family takes me to a developing country.
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