Starmer

[monkey]

Just found this one.

Nukes Good. British Weapons Good.

[Millennie Al]

I know people say that the election is years away but if you can't capture people's attention now when the country is in the shittiest position it's been in since the end of WW2 how the f.ck are you going to capture them when things are (hopefully) getting better? And just because the election is a long time away that doesn't mean you get to give up and go home.

However, you also don't want to stake your chances on some position so early that your opponents realise you're right and they have time to adopt your policy and then pretend it was theirs all along.

[Woodchopper]

I know people say that the election is years away but if you can't capture people's attention now when the country is in the shittiest position it's been in since the end of WW2 how the f.ck are you going to capture them when things are (hopefully) getting better? And just because the election is a long time away that doesn't mean you get to give up and go home.

The 2024 election isn’t a long way off. In political terms it’s very soon. Labour lost its credibility among large parts of the electorate. In terms of seats it was Labour’s worst result since 1935. Labour did slightly better in the share of the vote, but it’s result was still fifth worst since 1935. It is going to take far more than a new leader and a few months to get to a situation in which Labour can win a majority. Labour has a political mountain to climb and at the moment it’s still in the foothills. Though at least the leader seems to know how to use a compass.

Meanwhile Johnson has delivered Brexit without the catastrophe predicted by many remainers* and his government is saving the country from the Coronavirus.**

For Starmer to have brought Labour support up from 32% to circa 37% and only about four percentage points behind the Conservatives seems to be a major achievement.

* Brexit will damage the UK economy but that damage will be long term. Read the Mail instead of the Guardian and Brexit is looking much more like a success. The voters don’t care about fishermen, fishing rights were a symbol of sovereignty.

** Yes, Britain performed badly during the first year but the electorate seem to view the 100 000 Covid deaths as an act of god that couldn’t have been avoided, and Britain is actually doing very well at mass vaccination.

[plodder]

Read the Mail instead of the Guardian

um, is it ok if you do this for me?

I just have this other thing I have to do.,.

[discovolante]

Personally I think being the party of small business is fine...

Helping small business is good. They need it at the moment, it'll be popular too. My worry about that is that it's the start of a drift towards Blue Labour with their Fascisty sounding slogan of "Family, Faith and Flag". I do understand the motivation though, it's what most people assume that people in the "red wall" want, and might even be what the polling and focus groups* tell you. But if you go too far that way, it'll mean you end up having a flag waving contest with Boris f.cking Johnson, which you will lose, especially if your leader has next to no charisma**. Not to mention the surge of nationalism that would be encouraged.

Also, Labour are about to be outflanked by Sunak's budget, when he announces that he's stolen Corbyn/John McDonnell's fiscal policy next week. Even the left of the party doesn't seem to notice what's going on, they all seem to be getting ready to complain about Austerity 2.0 (when they're not too busy infighting).



*That thing about the flag I mentioned in a previous post was off of a leaked report based on focus groups. The Leadership claim it was just the results, rather than the strategy, I'm not sure they were believed by everyone.

**This isn't always a bad thing. Being able to focus on detail and analysis is what made Starmer a good shadow minister, but you do need someone with a bit of oomph to lead.

Ok, I was thinking of it as a policy/approach in and of itself, but you were looking at the wider context, fair enough. The flags and patriotism thing was and I hope it was one of those daft ideas that doesn't get off the ground.

[Herainestold]

There has to be some strategy here. You need a centrist/middle of the road approach to capture undecided/Red Wall voters, then pivot hard left after being elected.

[Woodchopper]

That would ensure that those voters don’t vote for the party at the next election.

[Herainestold]

That would ensure that those voters don’t vote for the party at the next election.

Maybe there wouldnt be another election...

Seriously, people would re elect a government that massively improved their well being.

[Grumble]

Here’s an idea, implement policies in your manifesto rather than trying to make a virtue out of dishonesty.

[Herainestold]

Here’s an idea, implement policies in your manifesto rather than trying to make a virtue out of dishonesty.

You will never succeed in politics with an attitude like that.

[El Pollo Diablo]

I agree with this column on Labour's popularity. Everyone just has to sit tight.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Also this.

If you are looking at voting intention or best Prime Minister figures to judge how well an opposition leader is doing, the first thing to note is that they are relative. It’s not just about how well the opposition are doing, it’s about how well the government are doing. Indeed, it’s probably mostly how well the government are doing – I am a great believer in the old truism that oppositions do not win elections, governments lose them. A really good opposition leader can pick holes in a government and force them into political errors, but primarily it’s a job of waiting for them to make a mistake, and making sure that when they do, you look like a plausible enough alternative for the public to place their trust in you.

Note that the government had a 20 point lead in the polls in May last year (after lots of mistakes), and Starmer managed to get that down to parity, and then a small lead. These are far from normal times, and so that's not bad going. Lots more to do, though.

Many of Starmer’s internal Labour party critics start with the absolute assumption that the Government are incredibly unpopular and that Labour should therefore be ahead of them. The reality is the Government’s figures really aren’t that bad and, on corona vaccination – the issue that currently dominates the agenda – are strikingly good. Looking at the Ipsos MORI polling this week, 38% think the government are handling corona well, 46% badly (negative, but not overwhelmingly so). 86% think they are doing well at securing vaccine supplies, 78% that they are doing well in rolling it out. For better or for worse, Boris Johnson has also delivered on his main election promise – getting Brexit done – and his own approval ratings appear to have bottomed out at the end of last year and have improved slightly since then.

Whatever your own opinions of the shitness of the government, many people in the country think they're just plucky frontmen just trying to do their best, and by god we're in a crisis, dammit, so let's just get behind them and we'll get through this together.

If we do that, then on the whole, Starmer’s ratings are at least acceptable. During the early part of his leadership there were very solid indeed, but over the last few months they have declined. His approval ratings are fairly neutral (Opinium’s last poll had 32% approving, 30% disapproving; Ipsos MORI has 40% satisfied, 35% dissatisfied; YouGov 39% good job, 37% bad job). These are significantly better than Boris Johnson’s current ratings, and better than his predecessors Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn.

Looking at polling on perceptions of Starmer, YouGov gives him positive ratings on being strong, likeable, decisive and – especially – competence (42% see him as competent, 21% incompetent). Ipsos MORI finds strongly positive ratings for him on being decisive, and moderately positive figures on leading opinion and demonstrating a clear vision.

MORI also ask a regular question on if the opposition leader looks ready to be Prime Minister. 33% of people think Starmer does, 37% think he does not. Jeremy Corbyn and Ed Miliband got figures ranging between 17%-31% thinking they looked ready to be Prime Minister, but consistently got in excess of 60% saying they did not. The positive figures may not be that different here, but Starmer’s negatives are far, far less than his predecessors. YouGov have a similar question, and found 33% think Starmer looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.

It is clear from the polling that Keir Starmer is seen by the general public as much more of a competent, plausible Prime Ministerial figure than his two predecessors. Whether that is enough is a different matter. I’ve frequently compared Starmer’s figures in this article to Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn. By that yardstick they’re not bad at all. But compare them to Tony Blair, or even to David Cameron, the last two leaders of the opposition to actually go on and become Prime Minister, and they look less positive.

Personally, even if Starmer was blitzing it, the size of the challenge is so enormous that I struggle to see how it could be overcome in one parliament. But the government has made lots of errors, some short term and some long term, and it remains to be seen whether the population will eventually tire of the impact of those errors. I suspect that little things, like long queues in European airports when we can go on holiday again, because we can't use the EU lanes; or if mobile operators decide to reinstate roaming charges in Europe, will make a difference. At the moment, though, the government has, rightly or wrongly, the wind in its sails, plenty of sympathetic potential voters, and an environment in which the opposition comes across either as unhelpfully carping from the sidelines, or as uselessly silent.

[nekomatic]

Yes.

The hype cycle for Starmerism is following an entirely predictable trajectory.

[Woodchopper]

I agree el Pollo, especially with this from the first link:

Labour is up against this: on trust to run the economy, Johnson and Sunak score 39% while Starmer and Dodds trail at just 25%. Without at least level-pegging on economic trust, Labour can never win.

Labour aren't going to be a serious prospect to win a majority until they are at least level with the Tories on that measure. Getting there will take years, I agree that the next election in 2024 is probably unrealistic.

[nekomatic]

Predictions of who can or can’t win the next election are based on assumptions about the volatility of the electorate which it’s not clear the electorate always feels obliged to go along with.

[monkey]

I agree with this column on Labour's popularity. Everyone just has to sit tight.

But it was only about 2 weeks ago that Poly Toynbee was saying the budget should be bold on tax (after Starmer did a speech on making things fairer): clicky.

(As an aside, sometimes her analysis is wayyy off, there's no way there's going to be an early election - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/11/could-boris-johnson-be-eyeing-another-snap-election-dont-bet-against-it)

[tom p]

Also this.

If you are looking at voting intention or best Prime Minister figures to judge how well an opposition leader is doing, the first thing to note is that they are relative. It’s not just about how well the opposition are doing, it’s about how well the government are doing. Indeed, it’s probably mostly how well the government are doing – I am a great believer in the old truism that oppositions do not win elections, governments lose them. A really good opposition leader can pick holes in a government and force them into political errors, but primarily it’s a job of waiting for them to make a mistake, and making sure that when they do, you look like a plausible enough alternative for the public to place their trust in you.

Note that the government had a 20 point lead in the polls in May last year (after lots of mistakes), and Starmer managed to get that down to parity, and then a small lead. These are far from normal times, and so that's not bad going. Lots more to do, though.

Many of Starmer’s internal Labour party critics start with the absolute assumption that the Government are incredibly unpopular and that Labour should therefore be ahead of them. The reality is the Government’s figures really aren’t that bad and, on corona vaccination – the issue that currently dominates the agenda – are strikingly good. Looking at the Ipsos MORI polling this week, 38% think the government are handling corona well, 46% badly (negative, but not overwhelmingly so). 86% think they are doing well at securing vaccine supplies, 78% that they are doing well in rolling it out. For better or for worse, Boris Johnson has also delivered on his main election promise – getting Brexit done – and his own approval ratings appear to have bottomed out at the end of last year and have improved slightly since then.

Whatever your own opinions of the shitness of the government, many people in the country think they're just plucky frontmen just trying to do their best, and by god we're in a crisis, dammit, so let's just get behind them and we'll get through this together.

A position that is significantly helped by the leader of the opposition doing the square root of f.ck all to change that narrative.
Worst death rate in the world because of endless dithering from Johnson.
The difference between the number of dead in the UK & the number of dead if you'd had the same death rate as Germany is greater than the number of people who died in the blitz. Blundering Boris has butchered more Britons than the blitz. The headlines f.cking write themsleves.

Starmer being too afraid to go all guns blazing on 'you should be doing more' has led to Johnson only worrying about the nutters in the 'open it all up and let god sort 'em out' wing of his party and thus always acting too late. Starmer's timidity in the face of Johsnon's idiocy is literally killing people.
Seriously, Starmer has had an open goal for months & could have looked a lot more like a PM in waiting if he'd been on the news every night demanding action to sort things out during the dithering.
He doesn't look like the next PM, he looks like Peter Davenport after he signed for Man Utd - missing open goals left, right & centre.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Seriously, Starmer has had an open goal for months & could have looked a lot more like a PM in waiting if he'd been on the news every night demanding action to sort things out during the dithering.

He pretty much did this. The government ignored him. That's something they're allowed to do because they have an 80 seat majority and Starmer doesn't. Most of what Starmer demanded did end up happening though, just several weeks late.

[lpm]

Note that the government had a 20 point lead in the polls in May last year (after lots of mistakes), and Starmer managed to get that down to parity, and then a small lead. These are far from normal times, and so that's not bad going. Lots more to do, though.

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 43% (+3)
LAB: 36% (-2)
LDM: 7% (=)
SNP: 4% (=)
GRN: 3% (=)

Via @SavantaComRes, 26-28 Feb.
Changes w/ 19-21 Feb.

[Herainestold]

Note that the government had a 20 point lead in the polls in May last year (after lots of mistakes), and Starmer managed to get that down to parity, and then a small lead. These are far from normal times, and so that's not bad going. Lots more to do, though.

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 43% (+3)
LAB: 36% (-2)
LDM: 7% (=)
SNP: 4% (=)
GRN: 3% (=)

Via @SavantaComRes, 26-28 Feb.
Changes w/ 19-21 Feb.

Boris' lead is due to people like you talking up his vaccine effort.

[tom p]

Seriously, Starmer has had an open goal for months & could have looked a lot more like a PM in waiting if he'd been on the news every night demanding action to sort things out during the dithering.

He pretty much did this. The government ignored him. That's something they're allowed to do because they have an 80 seat majority and Starmer doesn't. Most of what Starmer demanded did end up happening though, just several weeks late.

Pretty, pretty tippy-tappy b.llsh.t with not nearly enough direction. It's like Barcelona now, rather than Barcelona with peak Messi.
Needs more engagement and effort. A higher press, if you will.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Note that the government had a 20 point lead in the polls in May last year (after lots of mistakes), and Starmer managed to get that down to parity, and then a small lead. These are far from normal times, and so that's not bad going. Lots more to do, though.

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 43% (+3)
LAB: 36% (-2)
LDM: 7% (=)
SNP: 4% (=)
GRN: 3% (=)

Via @SavantaComRes, 26-28 Feb.
Changes w/ 19-21 Feb.

Indeed. Hence the reason why I posted the articles earlier.

[lpm]

Boris' lead is due to people like you talking up his vaccine effort.

The other way round. It's people talking up the difficulties and giving him an easy bar to step over. The "it's so hard, he'll never do it on time, it's only half vaccinated" crowd.

When a political opponent is heading for a victory, you downplay the challenge, not exaggerate.

[monkey]

Labour's response to the budget has been alright. More of that please.

[Iron Magpie]

Also this.

If you are looking at voting intention or best Prime Minister figures to judge how well an opposition leader is doing, the first thing to note is that they are relative. It’s not just about how well the opposition are doing, it’s about how well the government are doing. Indeed, it’s probably mostly how well the government are doing – I am a great believer in the old truism that oppositions do not win elections, governments lose them. A really good opposition leader can pick holes in a government and force them into political errors, but primarily it’s a job of waiting for them to make a mistake, and making sure that when they do, you look like a plausible enough alternative for the public to place their trust in you.

Note that the government had a 20 point lead in the polls in May last year (after lots of mistakes), and Starmer managed to get that down to parity, and then a small lead. These are far from normal times, and so that's not bad going. Lots more to do, though.

Many of Starmer’s internal Labour party critics start with the absolute assumption that the Government are incredibly unpopular and that Labour should therefore be ahead of them. The reality is the Government’s figures really aren’t that bad and, on corona vaccination – the issue that currently dominates the agenda – are strikingly good. Looking at the Ipsos MORI polling this week, 38% think the government are handling corona well, 46% badly (negative, but not overwhelmingly so). 86% think they are doing well at securing vaccine supplies, 78% that they are doing well in rolling it out. For better or for worse, Boris Johnson has also delivered on his main election promise – getting Brexit done – and his own approval ratings appear to have bottomed out at the end of last year and have improved slightly since then.

Whatever your own opinions of the shitness of the government, many people in the country think they're just plucky frontmen just trying to do their best, and by god we're in a crisis, dammit, so let's just get behind them and we'll get through this together.

A position that is significantly helped by the leader of the opposition doing the square root of f.ck all to change that narrative.
Worst death rate in the world because of endless dithering from Johnson.
The difference between the number of dead in the UK & the number of dead if you'd had the same death rate as Germany is greater than the number of people who died in the blitz. Blundering Boris has butchered more Britons than the blitz. The headlines f.cking write themsleves.

Starmer being too afraid to go all guns blazing on 'you should be doing more' has led to Johnson only worrying about the nutters in the 'open it all up and let god sort 'em out' wing of his party and thus always acting too late. Starmer's timidity in the face of Johsnon's idiocy is literally killing people.
Seriously, Starmer has had an open goal for months & could have looked a lot more like a PM in waiting if he'd been on the news every night demanding action to sort things out during the dithering.
He doesn't look like the next PM, he looks like Peter Davenport after he signed for Man Utd - missing open goals left, right & centre.

For a moment I thought I was on Facebook.....I kept looking for the like button.
Starmer seems to be going after the tory vote which is silly. Tories will always vote for blue tories ahead of red ones and all the while he is losing more of labours core support and probably more importantly, the activists. The boots on the ground people are generally more left wing than the PLP which means Starmer will probably try and expel them all at some point if they haven't left already.