Scrutable

Seeing as Johnson's utterly f.cked it all up by defending Cummings when anyone can see he broke the self-isolation rules for people with Covid-19 symptoms, is it too early to start speculating who will replace Boris?

(Struggling to think of 10 poll options, given they purged all the credible moderates last year.)

Matt Hancock! How could I forget Matt Hancock?

I assume you've discounted Cummings on the basis he is already, for all intensive porpoises, the Tory leader.

Might throw my hat in the ring.

Probably an outside candidate, but just possibly the breath of fresh air the Tories need right now (to reanimate the wizened cadavers that host their xenomorphs). Plus my presence in debates will help to shift the dialogue towards the centre ground.

I'm glad to see the obvious answer is leading in the poll.

bolo wrote: ↑

Sun May 24, 2020 9:12 pm

I'm glad to see the obvious answer is leading in the poll.

You can't lose by voting "Cock End" as it covers all the options, aside from Priti Patel, but she's next in line for Chancellor, given her head for figures.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Sun May 24, 2020 9:02 pm

Might throw my hat in the ring.

Probably an outside candidate, but just possibly the breath of fresh air the Tories need right now (to reanimate the wizened cadavers that host their xenomorphs). Plus my presence in debates will help to shift the dialogue towards the centre ground.

I thought the Mail was gunning for Gove?

I have voted for Priti Patel, Priti facing Starmer at PMQ time would be good entertainment.

Little waster wrote: ↑

Sun May 24, 2020 9:00 pm

I assume you've discounted Cummings on the basis he is already, for all intensive porpoises, the Tory leader.

Haha, good point.

But I was being serious, and so only listed current Tory MPs. Cummings' position is clearly untenable, but I also think Johnson's days are numbered. He will limp on for a while, but the UK's pandemic response has been botched in many ways, with the pattern repeating with contact tracing and the timing of schools readmissions. Johnson has burnt any remaining goodwill and every new thing that goes wrong will damage him further.

We saw with May that the limping can go on for some time, and she was running a minority government. Johnson is safe as houses.

plodder wrote: ↑

Mon May 25, 2020 11:54 am

We saw with May that the limping can go on for some time, and she was running a minority government. Johnson is safe as houses.

Running the party under such circumstances might be more attractive, though. I think May was partly protected by being in such a bad position.

bolo wrote: ↑

Sun May 24, 2020 9:12 pm

I'm glad to see the obvious answer is leading in the poll.

Currently at 52% which I understand represents the overwhelming Will of the People and MUST NOT BE DENIED!

Cummings has given Johnson six months' notice

Johnson was still struggling badly after having coronavirus and would step down in six months, according to a report in the Times.

“If you put a horse back to work when it’s injured it will never recover”

They shoot horses don't they?

Those c.nts voted for that c.nt what did they expect?

There's over four years until the next general election, the government is dealing (probably badly, but that's not necessarily relevant) with a major pandemic, the economy has shrunk by double digits, and Tory MPs are allegedly panicking because they are only level-pegging with the opposition?

Something about this is bollocks, although without more information we can't tell if it's the reporting or the reaction of the MPs. For the moment I'm going to file it under silly season.

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:07 am

There's over four years until the next general election, the government is dealing (probably badly, but that's not necessarily relevant) with a major pandemic, the economy has shrunk by double digits, and Tory MPs are allegedly panicking because they are only level-pegging with the opposition?

Something about this is bollocks, although without more information we can't tell if it's the reporting or the reaction of the MPs. For the moment I'm going to file it under silly season.

I can easily imagine that Johnson will stay on to "deliver" Brexit, and then will leave - hopefully taking a lot of the blame with him.

I can't see anyone else in the Conservative party wanting the poisoned chalice until that's over.

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:07 am

There's over four years until the next general election, the government is dealing (probably badly, but that's not necessarily relevant) with a major pandemic, the economy has shrunk by double digits, and Tory MPs are allegedly panicking because they are only level-pegging with the opposition?

Something about this is bollocks, although without more information we can't tell if it's the reporting or the reaction of the MPs. For the moment I'm going to file it under silly season.

It reads to me that some Tory MPs are (a) a bit worried about the current fondness for u-turns and (b) pissed off that they're not being listened to. The opinion polling is presented in the main body of the article as an extra thing for the party to worry about on top of the u-turning and ignoring. It's only the headline and the intro where the upset and the poll seem to be linked.

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:07 am

There's over four years until the next general election

There aren't. They won't hold a December general election next time.

It is on Thursday 2 May 2024, as per the fixed term law thing.

I'm not sure that the fixed-term parliaments act will survive that long. I think the intention was to make it impossible for a government to call a snap election when it still had the confidence of parliament. The events of 2019 showed that it could also work the other way. In other words it could be used to compel a government remain in office even when it arguably did not have the confidence of parliament. I don't think any party is going to want a repeat of that situation.

I think there won’t be a challenge to Johnson before christmas. Next year Johnson will be the face of whatever happens with Brexit in January, either a no deal shitstorm or a last minute bodge that kicks a load of difficult decisions into the future and would be seen as reneging on the kind of clean break that the quitters want. So Johnson could well chuck in the towel or be challenged in the spring. I reckon Gove is exactly the slimy backstabbing bastard to do it, plus he’s mates with Cummings as well...

individualmember wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:01 pm

I think there won’t be a challenge to Johnson before christmas. Next year Johnson will be the face of whatever happens with Brexit in January, either a no deal shitstorm or a last minute bodge that kicks a load of difficult decisions into the future and would be seen as reneging on the kind of clean break that the quitters want. So Johnson could well chuck in the towel or be challenged in the spring. I reckon Gove is exactly the slimy backstabbing bastard to do it, plus he’s mates with Cummings as well...

yup

jimbob wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:24 am

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:07 am

There's over four years until the next general election, the government is dealing (probably badly, but that's not necessarily relevant) with a major pandemic, the economy has shrunk by double digits, and Tory MPs are allegedly panicking because they are only level-pegging with the opposition?

Something about this is bollocks, although without more information we can't tell if it's the reporting or the reaction of the MPs. For the moment I'm going to file it under silly season.

I can easily imagine that Johnson will stay on to "deliver" Brexit, and then will leave - hopefully taking a lot of the blame with him.

I can't see anyone else in the Conservative party wanting the poisoned chalice until that's over.

snoozeofreason wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:36 am

I'm not sure that the fixed-term parliaments act will survive that long. I think the intention was to make it impossible for a government to call a snap election when it still had the confidence of parliament. The events of 2019 showed that it could also work the other way. In other words it could be used to compel a government remain in office even when it arguably did not have the confidence of parliament. I don't think any party is going to want a repeat of that situation.

It's certainly been rumoured to be going - Johnson was frustrated that Corbyn held the cards on that matter last year, and we all know Johnson doesn't like any form of challenge or oversight or criticism. I mean, obviously, Corbyn chucked his cards in the shredder and then let his gerbil sh.t all over them and then through them into a fan where the sh.tty card shreds promptly blew back into his face and made a mess everywhere.

Sorry, I digress.

Point is, under either the FTPA or a scenario where it disappears, the next election will not be as late as December 2024. It will be only as late as May 2024.

individualmember wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:01 pm

I reckon Gove is exactly the slimy backstabbing bastard to do it, plus he’s mates with Cummings as well...

I read (sorry, lost the link) an interesting article suggesting that Gove and Cummings are no longer mates. Not sure who shafted whom. Of course, in the world of Transactional People(tm) these alliances come and go, and may come back again. But at the moment, Johnson and Cummings are joined at the hip.

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:54 pm

individualmember wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:01 pm

I reckon Gove is exactly the slimy backstabbing bastard to do it, plus he’s mates with Cummings as well...

I read (sorry, lost the link) an interesting article suggesting that Gove and Cummings are no longer mates. Not sure who shafted whom. Of course, in the world of Transactional People(tm) these alliances come and go, and may come back again. But at the moment, Johnson and Cummings are joined at the hip.

I'd think Sunak would be the next choice. It's a traditional route, and he'd let Johnson take the blame...