Next Tory Leader

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people

Who will be the next leader of the Tory party?

Michael Gove
4
7%
Rishi Sunak
8
14%
Jeremy Hunt
4
7%
Priti Patel
1
2%
Sajid Javed
1
2%
Jacob Rees-Mogg
1
2%
Cock end
37
66%
 
Total votes: 56

User avatar
bjn
Catbabel
Posts: 656
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by bjn » Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:19 pm

I just listened to James O'Briens interview with Rory Stewart. In the sane timeline he obviously won the leadership election. He's still a Tory, but at least he acknowledges reality and doesn't come across as a total careerist c.nt like Johnson.

User avatar
snoozeofreason
Stargoon
Posts: 141
Joined: Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:22 pm

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by snoozeofreason » Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:21 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:13 pm
snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:36 am
I'm not sure that the fixed-term parliaments act will survive that long. I think the intention was to make it impossible for a government to call a snap election when it still had the confidence of parliament. The events of 2019 showed that it could also work the other way. In other words it could be used to compel a government remain in office even when it arguably did not have the confidence of parliament. I don't think any party is going to want a repeat of that situation.
It's certainly been rumoured to be going - Johnson was frustrated that Corbyn held the cards on that matter last year, and we all know Johnson doesn't like any form of challenge or oversight or criticism. I mean, obviously, Corbyn chucked his cards in the shredder and then let his gerbil sh.t all over them and then through them into a fan where the sh.tty card shreds promptly blew back into his face and made a mess everywhere.

Sorry, I digress.

Point is, under either the FTPA or a scenario where it disappears, the next election will not be as late as December 2024. It will be only as late as May 2024.
Surely it would depend what FTPA got replaced with. If we reverted to the previous legislation then Johnson could hang on to December 2024. I suppose FTPA might survive through inertia, but it's hard to see anyone rushing to the barricades to defend it. Johnson has no reason to love it, but Starmer probably has enough imagination to have developed reservations of his own - the way it played out for the Conservatives in the context of brexit could easily be replicated with a Labour government in the context of some other issue. And it would be hard for anyone to argue that FTPA had worked in the way that was originally intended.
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?

plodder
Catbabel
Posts: 854
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by plodder » Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:48 am

Lots of rumours that Johnson is still ill w/ Covid and will step down in the next few months for health reasons.

User avatar
El Pollo Diablo
Dorkwood
Posts: 1278
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:41 pm
Location: FBPE

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:31 am

snoozeofreason wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:21 am
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:13 pm
snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:36 am
I'm not sure that the fixed-term parliaments act will survive that long. I think the intention was to make it impossible for a government to call a snap election when it still had the confidence of parliament. The events of 2019 showed that it could also work the other way. In other words it could be used to compel a government remain in office even when it arguably did not have the confidence of parliament. I don't think any party is going to want a repeat of that situation.
It's certainly been rumoured to be going - Johnson was frustrated that Corbyn held the cards on that matter last year, and we all know Johnson doesn't like any form of challenge or oversight or criticism. I mean, obviously, Corbyn chucked his cards in the shredder and then let his gerbil sh.t all over them and then through them into a fan where the sh.tty card shreds promptly blew back into his face and made a mess everywhere.

Sorry, I digress.

Point is, under either the FTPA or a scenario where it disappears, the next election will not be as late as December 2024. It will be only as late as May 2024.
Surely it would depend what FTPA got replaced with. If we reverted to the previous legislation then Johnson could hang on to December 2024. I suppose FTPA might survive through inertia, but it's hard to see anyone rushing to the barricades to defend it. Johnson has no reason to love it, but Starmer probably has enough imagination to have developed reservations of his own - the way it played out for the Conservatives in the context of brexit could easily be replicated with a Labour government in the context of some other issue. And it would be hard for anyone to argue that FTPA had worked in the way that was originally intended.
Johnson could indeed hang on to December 2024. But, in reality, he won't.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

User avatar
El Pollo Diablo
Dorkwood
Posts: 1278
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:41 pm
Location: FBPE

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:32 am

plodder wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:48 am
Lots of rumours that Johnson is still ill w/ Covid and will step down in the next few months for health reasons.
There were lots of rumours that Cummings would step down by now, and look at that. I don't reckon Johnson will step down, he's wanted this for f.cking years.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

User avatar
JQH
Catbabel
Posts: 898
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:30 pm
Location: Sar Flandan

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by JQH » Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:41 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:32 am
plodder wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:48 am
Lots of rumours that Johnson is still ill w/ Covid and will step down in the next few months for health reasons.
There were lots of rumours that Cummings would step down by now, and look at that. I don't reckon Johnson will step down, he's wanted this for f.cking years.
Yep. He's sacrificed country, party and principles for it. He ain't going to give it up easily.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

Fintan O'Toole

User avatar
Sciolus
Fuzzable
Posts: 300
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by Sciolus » Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:38 am

Cameron hated the hard work of being PM, but he still hung for ages.

User avatar
Woodchopper
After Pie
Posts: 1781
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:39 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:32 am
plodder wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:48 am
Lots of rumours that Johnson is still ill w/ Covid and will step down in the next few months for health reasons.
There were lots of rumours that Cummings would step down by now, and look at that. I don't reckon Johnson will step down, he's wanted this for f.cking years.
I agree. Unless he has a serious health problem I don't see any reason why he'd want to step down. He's purged the main opposition within his party and he has a decent sized majority. Who is left who could successfully challenge Johnson?

User avatar
lpm
After Pie
Posts: 1648
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Location: IMPEACH AND EXTERMINATE

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by lpm » Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:45 pm

I think Putin is happy with things as they are. Seems no reason why he'd want to change personnel right now?
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

User avatar
Little waster
Catbabel
Posts: 768
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:35 am
Location: About 1 inch behind my eyes

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by Little waster » Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:27 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:39 pm
I don't see any reason why he'd want to step down.
It's hard work, it's badly paid, people expect him to do things, people blame him when things go wrong, he can't just lie his way out of trouble* with a joke and a wink, people hate him.

I don't think it is what the glorified panel-show host was expecting when he signed up to be World King and his temperament, work-ethic, background and personality make him uniquely badly-suited for the role.
Shamelessly recycling old jokes since 1952.

PeteB
Stargoon
Posts: 107
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:02 pm

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by PeteB » Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:57 pm

the state of him at #pmqs today !

FlammableFlower
Catbabel
Posts: 654
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:22 pm

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:01 pm

PeteB wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:57 pm
the state of him at #pmqs today !
Haven't seen/heard it, but the Guardian commentary was damning
First, Johnson doesn’t seem to even be trying to get better. He has had the whole summer to think about how he could improve at PMQs, but today there was no evidence that he has done so. It is one thing to be bad at a particular task; but to try not to get better is less forgivable. This would not matter much if it were just lefty journalists saying that he has been poor at PMQs, but even in the rightwing press it is hard to find anyone saying he has been a success.

PeteB
Stargoon
Posts: 107
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:02 pm

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by PeteB » Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:15 pm

From Dan Hodges - (Mail on Sunday) that sometimes thinks (inexplicably to me) Johnson does well at these


(((Dan Hodges)))

Boris got a proper kicking there.

Starmer genuinely angry.

Starmer hammering Boris on the IRA jibe. Labour. Under new management.

PeteB
Stargoon
Posts: 107
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:02 pm

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by PeteB » Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:36 pm

“His replies to Sir Keir were incoherent, irritable, and often bewilderingly irrelevant. He had the air of a man who has slept through his alarm, dressed in a panic, and discovers only during the mad dash to the station that his trousers are inside out”. Telegraph

User avatar
Little waster
Catbabel
Posts: 768
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:35 am
Location: About 1 inch behind my eyes

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by Little waster » Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:51 pm

PeteB wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:36 pm
“He had the air of a man who has slept through his alarm, dressed in a panic, and discovers only during the mad dash to the station that his trousers are inside out”. Telegraph
Which TBF could have been written about Johnson at any point during his entire career.

It’s interesting that the “Boris Johnson” persona is a complete fabrication, a deliberate affectation of a hapless, bumbling, shameless, lazy toff to disguise that the core “Al Johnson” persona is in fact a hapless, bumbling, shameless, lazy toff who is also an unpleasant c.nt.
Shamelessly recycling old jokes since 1952.

User avatar
Woodchopper
After Pie
Posts: 1781
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:38 pm

PeteB wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:36 pm
“His replies to Sir Keir were incoherent, irritable, and often bewilderingly irrelevant. He had the air of a man who has slept through his alarm, dressed in a panic, and discovers only during the mad dash to the station that his trousers are inside out”. Telegraph
Does it matter?

PMQs mattered 30 years ago when most of the country watched the news every evening and excerpts of the PMs performance in parliament had an audience of millions.

PMQs also matter when there isn’t a large majority as a good performance will help to keep wayward backbenchers on side.

But these days people are reading conspiracy theories on Facebook instead of watching the TV news, and with a majority of 80 Johnson doesn’t give a sh.t what his backbenchers think.

He looks disheveled and bored because he doesn’t see the point of participating in an irrelevant ritual.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3533
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:09 pm

It's a good source of short soundbites for the press / viral video clips for social media, so there's some motivation for injecting the odd moment where you look good even if the rest of it is dross. I think that's what's Johnson's been trying to do by shoehorning in those obviously scripted gags.
Ceterum autem censeo humanitatem esse delendam

#ShowYourStripes

plodder
Catbabel
Posts: 854
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by plodder » Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:55 pm

PMQs still matters because a relatively small number of people influence a much greater number. The bore in the pub, the facebook know-it-all, the dinner party droner, the forum obsessive. These guys pay attention to things like PMQs and it slowly and imperfectly filters through to the rest of us.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3533
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: nadir of brie

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:12 am

plodder wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:55 pm
PMQs still matters because a relatively small number of people influence a much greater number. The bore in the pub, the facebook know-it-all, the dinner party droner, the forum obsessive. These guys pay attention to things like PMQs and it slowly and imperfectly filters through to the rest of us.
Those guys are important, perhaps especially the 0.1% of them who have particularly influential positions in the media (be it traditional journalism, "blogging" sensu latu, billionaire cryptofascist shareholders, etc). They can do a lot with a little.

Business idea: the cash-for-questions bribery was lucrative, and ongoing long after the initial exposé. Surely there's a market for cash-for-answers: bribe the PM to say a particular phrase during his PMQs defence of a well-known scandal, and use it in a pre-written article to corner the all-important first 45 minutes of a tweeted newstorm, solidifying your lead with ~hourly releases of interviews with tame, quasi-important talking heads. Reap bazillions of wannabe political influencers. Then feed them paid propaganda, which is the real income-earner.
Ceterum autem censeo humanitatem esse delendam

#ShowYourStripes

User avatar
Martin_B
Snowbonk
Posts: 512
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:20 pm
Location: Perth, WA

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by Martin_B » Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:54 am

If performance at the PMQs is going to hurt Boris, then you are importing a very effective PMQ performer who ticks all the right (geddit?) boxes for the hard Brexit crowd - Tony Abbott.
"Don't tell me that the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon"

plodder
Catbabel
Posts: 854
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by plodder » Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:49 am

Yes, that’s why he’s been chosen, it’s the Norman Tebbitt thing (for the older readers)

User avatar
jimbob
Dorkwood
Posts: 1476
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by jimbob » Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:12 am

Little waster wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:51 pm
PeteB wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:36 pm
“He had the air of a man who has slept through his alarm, dressed in a panic, and discovers only during the mad dash to the station that his trousers are inside out”. Telegraph
Which TBF could have been written about Johnson at any point during his entire career.

It’s interesting that the “Boris Johnson” persona is a complete fabrication, a deliberate affectation of a hapless, bumbling, shameless, lazy toff to disguise that the core “Al Johnson” persona is in fact a hapless, bumbling, shameless, lazy toff who is also an unpleasant c.nt.
Yup, I'd said elsewhere that he'd cultivated an image of an amiable buffoon when he was actually a ruthless, calculating buffoon
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
El Pollo Diablo
Dorkwood
Posts: 1278
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:41 pm
Location: FBPE

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:38 pm

plodder wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:55 pm
The bore in the pub, the facebook know-it-all, the dinner party droner, the forum obsessive.
Hey.
Mike Patton wrote:"You overdo it sometimes. There I am, peeing on Axl Rose’s teleprompter." He looks rueful: "I didn’t really have to do that."

User avatar
shpalman
After Pie
Posts: 1834
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by shpalman » Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:45 am

molto tricky

User avatar
Little waster
Catbabel
Posts: 768
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:35 am
Location: About 1 inch behind my eyes

Re: Next Tory Leader

Post by Little waster » Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:44 pm

In other news; failures in Universal credit mean people are expected to live on no income at all for up to 11 weeks, annual food bank usage reaches 1.9m and 2% of UC claimants are undergoing some form of sanction of up to 6 months without any support at all, for such horrific infractions* as “bus being 5 mins late”, “having their CV on a USB stick rather than pointlessly printed out on the printer they don’t have” and “not using their worthless Universal Jobmatch website on the Tuesday before starting a new job on the Wednesday”.


*I should know I fell foul of all three when I had the joy of going through the kafkaesque farce for a couple of months.
Shamelessly recycling old jokes since 1952.

Post Reply