US Election

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US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:25 pm

Since the RNC have now settled on their platform for the November election, I guess it's time to start the official thread.

The RNC platform states:
The Middle East is more dangerous now than at any time since the Second World War. Whatever their disagreements, presidents of both parties had always prioritized America’s national interests, the trust of friendly governments, and the security of Israel. That sound consensus was replaced with impotent grandstanding on the part of the current President and his Secretaries of State. The results have been ruinous for all parties except Islamic terrorists and their Iranian and other sponsors.
and
The survival of the internet as we know it is at risk. Its gravest peril originates in the White House, the current occupant of which has launched a campaign, both at home and internationally, to subjugate it to agents of government.

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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:32 pm

That's amazing.

Not that they f.cked up. But that, four years in, I'm somehow still surprised at the basic stuff they manage to f.ck up.

Obviously it's not worth them really having a platform, because Trump won't read or understand it and his rallies will just be whatever nonsense dribbles out of his worm-riddled brain. Nevertheless, it's pretty funny that they couldn't even be bothered to phone in a few platitudes.
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:33 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:32 pm
That's amazing.

Not that they f.cked up. But that, four years in, I'm somehow still surprised at the basic stuff they manage to f.ck up.

Obviously it's not worth them really having a platform, because Trump won't read or understand it and his rallies will just be whatever nonsense dribbles out of his worm-riddled brain. Nevertheless, it's pretty funny that they couldn't even be bothered to phone in a few platitudes.
Changing the words would have meant going against Trump's wishes and going to a convention in North Carolina.

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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:37 pm

And yes, it's looking at least 50:50 like you'll have an election, now that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has made it quite clear that Trump doesn't have the unequivocal backing of the military. I don't think the cops are well-trained and disciplined enough on their own to back a coup.

(Trying to work out which sectors of which armed forces would support the president is a hobby I've picked up from my time following Brazilian politics)
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:32 am

Far too early to be looking at polls. But they look lovely, so worth a naughty look.

National polls, Biden lead, recent days, no attempt here at distinguishing between poll quality, sample size etc:

+9, 13, 11, 11, 8, 8, 8, 7, 13, 10, 4, 8, 8, 10, 12, 11, 9, 14, 10, 0, 5, 7

The nicest one is CNN from the other day, that Trump threatened to sue over, which was Biden 55 vs Trump 41.

On the other hand, an upcoming OANN poll is expected to show Trump with a 82 point lead, Biden 9 vs Trump 91.

Battleground polls:

Michigan (Trump +0.2% in 2016, 16 EV): Biden +15, 12, 2, 6

Pennsylvania (Trump +0.7% in 2016, 20 EV): Biden -4, +9, -5

Wisconsin (Trump +0.8% in 2016, 10 EV): Biden +9, 0, 10, 9

Florida (Trump +1.2% in 2016, 29 EV): Biden +3, 3, 1, 2, 5, 1

Arizona (Trump +3.6% in 2016, 11 EV): Biden +4, -1, +2, +4, +8

Winning those 5 would give an electoral college of Biden 318 vs Trump 220. Ignoring Florida, where the rigged election is guaranteed to give Trump the win, it is Biden 289 vs Trump 249.

Other potentials are Georgia (poll will be rigged), North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa - and the dream of Texas.
Last edited by lpm on Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:36 am

Worth noting the fun scenario of Biden winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, plus has massive win in total votes, but the electoral college is then Biden 269 vs Trump 271.

Or add in Biden capturing 1 from Nebraska 2nd (won by Trump in 2016 by 2%) - to give Biden 270 vs Trump 270.
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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:54 am

I forget where it was but one pro-Trump ATL article was along the lines of:-

"Well if we ignore California then Trump could still edge a marginal win"

Presumably they are expecting the San Andreas Fault to open up and usher in the era of Arizona Bay.
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Re: US Election

Post by Vertigowooyay » Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:19 pm

Little waster wrote:
Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:54 am
I forget where it was but one pro-Trump ATL article was along the lines of:-

"Well if we ignore California then Trump could still edge a marginal win"

Presumably they are expecting the San Andreas Fault to open up and usher in the era of Arizona Bay.
He probably thinks Lex Luthor’s plan in Superman might work.
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:57 am

A new poll has Biden within 3 percent of Trump.

In Arkansas.

Arkansas.

f.cking Arkansas.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:59 am

(Trump carried it by 27 in 2016)

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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:13 am

dyqik wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:57 am
A new poll has Biden within 3 percent of Trump.

In Arkansas.

Arkansas.

f.cking Arkansas.
Wow.
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Re: US Election

Post by Martin_B » Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:20 am

dyqik wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:57 am
A new poll has Biden within 3 percent of Trump.

In Arkansas.

Arkansas.

f.cking Arkansas.
According to https://www.270towin.com/states/Arkansas, Arkansas last voted Democrat in 1992 & 1996 (Bill Clinton, who's from Arkansas) and before that 1976!
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:48 am

Trump is only ahead by 1.5% in Texas as well.

And the thing is, as 538 realised four years ago, just because all the polls show Trump behind, doesn't mean he actually is. The swing states are all correlated, and the polls are all roughly in the same ball park, error wise (Rasmussen excepted), particularly in the area of missing certain cohorts of voters.

So if one state is out, the others will be out by a similar degree. Hence why they gave Trump a 28% chance of winning on the night when everyone else had less than 10%. Nate Silver even had a massive paddy about it on twitter.

But yes, the latest state polls look good for Biden. And if he takes Georgia or Pennsylvania, he can expect to get the rest too. Though possibly not Florida - we know from past elections that Florida is full of c.nts.
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Re: US Election

Post by Gentleman Jim » Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:08 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:48 am
Though possibly not Florida - we know from past elections that Florida is full of c.nts.
Although, if the covid rates there keep going up, it is likely to be less full of c.nts
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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:40 am

Gentleman Jim wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:08 am
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:48 am
Though possibly not Florida - we know from past elections that Florida is full of c.nts.
Although, if the covid rates there keep going up, it is likely to be less full of c.nts
TBF the Floridians have been Darwining themselves out of the equation for a number of years now.
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:32 am

Martin_B wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:20 am
dyqik wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:57 am
A new poll has Biden within 3 percent of Trump.

In Arkansas.

Arkansas.

f.cking Arkansas.
According to https://www.270towin.com/states/Arkansas, Arkansas last voted Democrat in 1992 & 1996 (Bill Clinton, who's from Arkansas) and before that 1976!
Dud poll. The most outliery outlier for years.

Arkansas is like Tennessee - both Republican by 26 points in 2016.

The Clinton-Gore ticket won Tennessee in 1992 and 1996. But Al Gore of Tennessee didn't manage to win Tennessee in 2000. Everyone talks about Florida and hanging chads and the rest, but winning the 11 EVs of Tennessee is what took George W Bush to 271.
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Re: US Election

Post by Gentleman Jim » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:34 am

Little waster wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:40 am
Gentleman Jim wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:08 am
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:48 am
Though possibly not Florida - we know from past elections that Florida is full of c.nts.
Although, if the covid rates there keep going up, it is likely to be less full of c.nts
TBF the Floridians have been Darwining themselves out of the equation for a number of years now.

And by taking a lot of the old, white, racists from other states it is acting as foul drainage system
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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:03 am

Four polls in the last two days on 538. Average adjusted score of 39.3% approval, 57.8% disapproval. Currently in Carter, Bush and Truman territory, noting that Truman's polls were proved wrong. Apart from Truman, every post-war president who sought and won reelection was in positive net approval territory at this point. Most improved their net approval as well - there are roughly 140 days until the election, and Trump has been in positive net approval territory for a grand total of 13 days of his presidency. Should be fun, this one.
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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:28 am

538 haven't unveiled their tracker yet. It was the best in 2016, giving Trump a 15%-20% chance most of the time - and of course a 20% chance will happen every so often with a frequency only mathematicians can calculate.

But Nate Silver has given a sneak preview:

March 1: Biden +4.1
April 1: +6.1
May 1: +6.1
June 1: +6.3
June 15: +8.1

The Economist has created its own version. I assume they are trying to replicate the 538 method.
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020- ... /president

Currently Biden +8.0
85% chance of Biden victory.
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:30 am

The state GE polls so far this morning:
New Mexico - Trump -14
Michigan - Trump -13, -16
Florida - Trump -11

The last one is the big one there, but the margins in all of them are large.

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Re: US Election

Post by lpm » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:45 am

Lovely.

But I'm worried about Pennsylvania. Assuming Michigan and Wisconsin are safe, but assuming the vote is rigged in Florida and Georgia, Pennsylvania becomes the swing state.

And it's not shifting anywhere near as much as Michigan. In 2016 Trump won Michigan by 0.2% and Pennsylvania by 0.7%. While Michigan is now in the Biden +11 region, Pennsylvania's polls in the last month are: Trump +4, Biden +9, Trump +5.

I'm surprised there's not more polling being done here.
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:59 am

I'm not sure Florida will be rigged sufficiently or in the right way.

Florida, Arizona, and to a lesser extent New Mexico are big retirement states. And retirees are the most vulnerable to CoVID-19, and are watching the disaster unfold, with Trump abandoning all the work on it.

The traditional rigging in FL is to make it even easier for retirees in gated communities and similar to vote, and harder for poor workers to vote, by doing things like putting polling places in gated communities with guards on the gate. But Biden is seeing the biggest swings to him among retiree aged voters.

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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:11 pm

New Mexico is always blue in presidential elections, but I assume the fact it's 50% Hispanic isn't helping with Trump love.

I wasn't aware that it's a retirement destination (and wiki says only 13% of the population is over 65) but it would be a lovely place to retire to. If the US can sort itself out in the next 40 years I'd consider it ;)
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Re: US Election

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:13 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:59 am
The traditional rigging in FL is to make it even easier for retirees in gated communities and similar to vote, and harder for poor workers to vote, by doing things like putting polling places in gated communities with guards on the gate. But Biden is seeing the biggest swings to him among retiree aged voters.
The traditional rigging is to use proprietary voting machines designed by republican donors that can't be effectively audited. That's why they're trying to restrict postal voting.
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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:22 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:13 pm
dyqik wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:59 am
The traditional rigging in FL is to make it even easier for retirees in gated communities and similar to vote, and harder for poor workers to vote, by doing things like putting polling places in gated communities with guards on the gate. But Biden is seeing the biggest swings to him among retiree aged voters.
The traditional rigging is to use proprietary voting machines designed by republican donors that can't be effectively audited. That's why they're trying to restrict postal voting.
Florida has had paper ballots for a while, and no one has ever shown actual large scale rigging via voting machines.

There's much simpler options that don't involve conspiracies, and aren't obviously illegal, but are just naked power moves.

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