US Election
- Little waster
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Re: US Election
So Day 2 of the RNC is upon us and with it one of the eagerly-anticipated highlights, Melania Trump's speech.
At last we'll get an answer to the question on everyone's lips, which Michelle Obama speech will she be reciting tonight?
I'm hoping for a retelling of Michelle's 2014 commencement address for Dillard University on the theme of the empowering potential of education.
At last we'll get an answer to the question on everyone's lips, which Michelle Obama speech will she be reciting tonight?
I'm hoping for a retelling of Michelle's 2014 commencement address for Dillard University on the theme of the empowering potential of education.
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
- EACLucifer
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Re: US Election
Seems like a rare example of a genuine "in order to spend more time with their family"
- EACLucifer
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Re: US Election
Little and often?*lpm wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:42 amI like Kimberly. She spells her name like an adverb, she's shagging her toyboy Donald Jr (what's the necessary age difference for toyboyism? She's 9 years older), she's got more plastic in her face than Barbie, she's got more hair extensions than Essex, and she shovels down the cocaine like they shoved coal into steam engines.Little waster wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:29 amI imagine a convention dip is still possible if something goes catastrophically wrong so a no-change convention is perhaps more of a bullet dodged than a missed opportunity for Biden.
*This is defined as six full shovels every two minutes or so.
- shpalman
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Re: US Election
Apparently she's been saying things which aren't very nice about Donald and Ivanka.Little waster wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:25 pmSo Day 2 of the RNC is upon us and with it one of the eagerly-anticipated highlights, Melania Trump's speech.
At last we'll get an answer to the question on everyone's lips, which Michelle Obama speech will she be reciting tonight?
I'm hoping for a retelling of Michelle's 2014 commencement address for Dillard University on the theme of the empowering potential of education.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: US Election
It really does.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:58 pmSeems like a rare example of a genuine "in order to spend more time with their family"
Thinking about it, it's worth remembering that Kellyanne Conway is the one who allegedly confiscated Trump's mobile phone in the last weeks before the 2016 election. I don't think there's anyone left who could do that this year. So maybe the Conways' disappearance won't be a totally neutral effect.
Re: US Election
She’s a fascist with training wheels. I’m trying to get a sense of perspective with the worst of what I’ve seen at British party conferences, but this seems properly distopian. f.cking hell. How are you supposed to fight that?lpm wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:42 amI like Kimberly. She spells her name like an adverb, she's shagging her toyboy Donald Jr (what's the necessary age difference for toyboyism? She's 9 years older), she's got more plastic in her face than Barbie, she's got more hair extensions than Essex, and she shovels down the cocaine like they shoved coal into steam engines.Little waster wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:29 amI imagine a convention dip is still possible if something goes catastrophically wrong so a no-change convention is perhaps more of a bullet dodged than a missed opportunity for Biden.
- Little waster
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Re: US Election
I dunno, the Repugs were claiming that Night 1 had went awesomely but I think it’s a well-established rule-of-thumb that if your opponents are gleefully sharing your full speeches, without editing or editorialising, then something has gone badly wrong for you.plodder wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:13 amShe’s a fascist with training wheels. I’m trying to get a sense of perspective with the worst of what I’ve seen at British party conferences, but this seems properly distopian. f.cking hell. How are you supposed to fight that?lpm wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:42 amI like Kimberly. She spells her name like an adverb, she's shagging her toyboy Donald Jr (what's the necessary age difference for toyboyism? She's 9 years older), she's got more plastic in her face than Barbie, she's got more hair extensions than Essex, and she shovels down the cocaine like they shoved coal into steam engines.Little waster wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:29 amI imagine a convention dip is still possible if something goes catastrophically wrong so a no-change convention is perhaps more of a bullet dodged than a missed opportunity for Biden.
Ridicule seems the best disinfectant here, forget Kinnock in Sheffield even soft Republican voters will be repelled by that neve4 mind swing voters, genuinely uncomfortable to watch.
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
Re: US Election
Deciding to fight it is the first step. Much of the US media is deliberately not fighting fascism - passing on lies without comment, repeating fantasy world tropes, normalising behaviour that is mad, or illegal, or both mad and illegal.
It's the "balancing two sides" problem we've faced for a couple of decades on everything. The BBC balances a vaccinator with an anti-vaxer. Brings in a fake billionaire's lobby group to balance an economist. Presents an anti lockdowner to be the the other side to an epidemiologist.
Now they are doing it with the Trump Party's attempt at fascism - seeing it as fair to balance normal politics with Trump politics. Two sides, horse race, plague-on-both-your-houses.
It's the "balancing two sides" problem we've faced for a couple of decades on everything. The BBC balances a vaccinator with an anti-vaxer. Brings in a fake billionaire's lobby group to balance an economist. Presents an anti lockdowner to be the the other side to an epidemiologist.
Now they are doing it with the Trump Party's attempt at fascism - seeing it as fair to balance normal politics with Trump politics. Two sides, horse race, plague-on-both-your-houses.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
- Little waster
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Re: US Election
If you watch Melania's speech again carefully you can see her blinking a message in morse code.
Not sure who "Toadstool-Dick" is?
Not sure who "Toadstool-Dick" is?
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
Re: US Election
Shouldn't have said that. Immediately slumped back to +8.2.lpm wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:31 amThe 538 tracker has improved a sliver. Back to +9.3 (it had previously eroded a bit from peak of +9.6 to low of +7.6, generally being in the +8.0 to +8.5 region for the past 3 weeks).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/
A fall from +9.3 to +8.2 is how a fall from +9.3 to -5.0 begins.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
- Bird on a Fire
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Re: US Election
Surely that's within the margin of error? Sounds like it's basically constant at 8ish with a bit of wobble.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: US Election
This change is entirely due to Rasmussen's Biden +1 poll. Rasmussen are not trustworthy.lpm wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:09 pmShouldn't have said that. Immediately slumped back to +8.2.lpm wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:31 amThe 538 tracker has improved a sliver. Back to +9.3 (it had previously eroded a bit from peak of +9.6 to low of +7.6, generally being in the +8.0 to +8.5 region for the past 3 weeks).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/
A fall from +9.3 to +8.2 is how a fall from +9.3 to -5.0 begins.
There aren't any live interview polls being published right now, between the conventions, just online ones. Live interview polls have been a lot more bullish for Biden than online panels.
Similarly, 538's model is including and compensating for a small convention bounce for Biden, but there's no real reason to expect one to actually occur this year. They've been getting weaker, and there are almost no undecided voters this time around.
- shpalman
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Re: US Election
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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- El Pollo Diablo
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Re: US Election
Big batch of new twice-daily polls from a company called USC Dornsife, who I haven't heard of before. Each one is done over a week during the convention season, polling likely voters (so theoretically giving the most accurate sense of where voters are, though this is not definite).
They show Biden with a big lead, and that that lead has grown a little over the last two weeks. Biden has gone from around 51% to around 54%, Trump from around 41% to 40%.
Which is nice.
They show Biden with a big lead, and that that lead has grown a little over the last two weeks. Biden has gone from around 51% to around 54%, Trump from around 41% to 40%.
Which is nice.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
- Little waster
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Re: US Election
538 had a slight narrowing over the RNC convention but it's all within the noise so too soon to say if it or "events, dear boy, events"* will change the overall picture.El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:44 pmBig batch of new twice-daily polls from a company called USC Dornsife, who I haven't heard of before. Each one is done over a week during the convention season, polling likely voters (so theoretically giving the most accurate sense of where voters are, though this is not definite).
They show Biden with a big lead, and that that lead has grown a little over the last two weeks. Biden has gone from around 51% to around 54%, Trump from around 41% to 40%.
Which is nice.
*I give you "US LEA openly colluding with far-right death squads" and raise you "BLM activists shouting at Rand Paul".
You pays your money and you takes your choice.
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
Re: US Election
This is the same group that was doing the USC/LA Times polls in 2016.El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:44 pmBig batch of new twice-daily polls from a company called USC Dornsife, who I haven't heard of before. Each one is done over a week during the convention season, polling likely voters (so theoretically giving the most accurate sense of where voters are, though this is not definite).
They show Biden with a big lead, and that that lead has grown a little over the last two weeks. Biden has gone from around 51% to around 54%, Trump from around 41% to 40%.
Which is nice.
- snoozeofreason
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Re: US Election
I think that we had some discussion of this upthread, but the system for counting postal votes in the US sounds like a recipe for conflict and shenanigans. In the UK they have to arrive before election night, and get counted alongside the in-person votes. That's not perfect, but at least there isn't the prospect of a majority for one party on election night being gradually eroded as postal votes come in.
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?
Re: US Election
Point of pedantry: UK postal votes have to be received by the local authority running the election by the time the polls close (10pm). This can include hand delivery at the council offices, or also dropping them into a ballot box at a polling station. (Which kind of defeats the point of a postal vote...)snoozeofreason wrote: ↑Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:41 amI think that we had some discussion of this upthread, but the system for counting postal votes in the US sounds like a recipe for conflict and shenanigans. In the UK they have to arrive before election night, and get counted alongside the in-person votes. That's not perfect, but at least there isn't the prospect of a majority for one party on election night being gradually eroded as postal votes come in.
There are several ways US elections seem a bit weird from the outside, starting with why does it take so long to vote?
Re: US Election
Well if you have a single polling station for a town of 13,000 that will help contribute to that.AMS wrote: ↑Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:53 amPoint of pedantry: UK postal votes have to be received by the local authority running the election by the time the polls close (10pm). This can include hand delivery at the council offices, or also dropping them into a ballot box at a polling station. (Which kind of defeats the point of a postal vote...)snoozeofreason wrote: ↑Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:41 amI think that we had some discussion of this upthread, but the system for counting postal votes in the US sounds like a recipe for conflict and shenanigans. In the UK they have to arrive before election night, and get counted alongside the in-person votes. That's not perfect, but at least there isn't the prospect of a majority for one party on election night being gradually eroded as postal votes come in.
There are several ways US elections seem a bit weird from the outside, starting with why does it take so long to vote?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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- Catbabel
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Re: US Election
And why, in this day and age in a country that's a world leader in electronics, don't they just elect the president by counting the votes ?? I can understand the need for an electoral college back in the days when results went to Wahington overland in days or weeks - but now !!??!!
Even my USAian cousins think it's mad.
WOULD CUSTOMERS PLEASE REFRAIN FROM SITTING ON THE COUNTER BY THE BACON SLICER - AS WE'RE GETTING A LITTLE BEHIND IN OUR ORDERS.
Re: US Election
It's because letting everyone have an equal weighted vote leads to the tyranny of the larger states.Lew Dolby wrote: ↑Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:45 pmAnd why, in this day and age in a country that's a world leader in electronics, don't they just elect the president by counting the votes ?? I can understand the need for an electoral college back in the days when results went to Wahington overland in days or weeks - but now !!??!!
Even my USAian cousins think it's mad.
As opposed to what we have now.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
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- Catbabel
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Re: US Election
Is that ^^^ tongue-in-cheek ??
I'd have thought a system where, for example, Californians vote 51% for a candidate and that candidate gets ALL California's Electoral College votes would be nearer to a tyrany of the larger states.
If you just smply count the national vote, no one need ever know how the vote went in each individual state.
I'd have thought a system where, for example, Californians vote 51% for a candidate and that candidate gets ALL California's Electoral College votes would be nearer to a tyrany of the larger states.
If you just smply count the national vote, no one need ever know how the vote went in each individual state.
WOULD CUSTOMERS PLEASE REFRAIN FROM SITTING ON THE COUNTER BY THE BACON SLICER - AS WE'RE GETTING A LITTLE BEHIND IN OUR ORDERS.
Re: US Election
Registering your campaign slogan as a web domain is just basic competence, no?
https://www.keepamericagreat.com/
https://www.keepamericagreat.com/
Re: US Election
Tongue in cheek? Hardly, AIUI, it's the justification given for using that system.Lew Dolby wrote: ↑Sat Aug 29, 2020 4:31 pmIs that ^^^ tongue-in-cheek ??
I'd have thought a system where, for example, Californians vote 51% for a candidate and that candidate gets ALL California's Electoral College votes would be nearer to a tyrany of the larger states.
If you just smply count the national vote, no one need ever know how the vote went in each individual state.
As it is, electors from the smaller states represent far fewer voters' intentions than the electors from large states.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_ ... l_Vote.png
Of course it would make more sense for the popular vote to choose the president, but this would reduce the power of people in the smaller states.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
- Woodchopper
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Re: US Election
Or to put it more mildly the electoral college reinforces the federal nature of the US. So for example Wyoming with a population of circa half a million still gets its own electors.Gfamily wrote: ↑Sat Aug 29, 2020 2:47 pmIt's because letting everyone have an equal weighted vote leads to the tyranny of the larger states.Lew Dolby wrote: ↑Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:45 pmAnd why, in this day and age in a country that's a world leader in electronics, don't they just elect the president by counting the votes ?? I can understand the need for an electoral college back in the days when results went to Wahington overland in days or weeks - but now !!??!!
Even my USAian cousins think it's mad.
As opposed to what we have now.
If the US President were to be directly elected then it would be more like a unitary state in which Wyoming didn’t matter very much.