US Election

[Opti]

Well, Ye has gone full anti-vaxx on his presidential campaign. Who'd a thought it?

[El Pollo Diablo]

Alaska has voted Democrat once since it acceded to the union in 1959, in 1964 when basically everyone went blue for Johnson. It has been won by the republicans in every other election, and by more than twenty points 8 times. Trump won it by fifteen points in 2016.

A poll in today has Trump just three points ahead of Biden in Alaska.

Alaska is competitive.

[Little waster]

Alaska has voted Democrat once since it acceded to the union in 1959, in 1964 when basically everyone went blue for Johnson. It has been won by the republicans in every other election, and by more than twenty points 8 times. Trump won it by fifteen points in 2016.

A poll in today has Trump just three points ahead of Biden in Alaska.

Alaska is competitive.

There is a danger here though, one IIRC the Lib Dem’s fell into at the last election.

If previously ignored, unlikely targets suddenly appear competitive there’s a temptation to divert some campaigning resources to the likes of a Texas and Alaska diluting the focus on the key battlegrounds.

On the night of the election these then revert to their usual voting pattern (with perhaps a reduced majority for the incumbent) and the key battlegrounds are lost by wafer thin margins which under FPTP is lethal. You then end up rueing the fact you got Trump’s Alaska lead down to single figures when a couple hundred more lawn signs could have swung you Florida.

[Martin_B]

Alaska has voted Democrat once since it acceded to the union in 1959, in 1964 when basically everyone went blue for Johnson. It has been won by the republicans in every other election, and by more than twenty points 8 times. Trump won it by fifteen points in 2016.

A poll in today has Trump just three points ahead of Biden in Alaska.

Alaska is competitive.

There is a danger here though, one IIRC the Lib Dem’s fell into at the last election.

If previously ignored, unlikely targets suddenly appear competitive there’s a temptation to divert some campaigning resources to the likes of a Texas and Alaska diluting the focus on the key battlegrounds.

On the night of the election these then revert to their usual voting pattern (with perhaps a reduced majority for the incumbent) and the key battlegrounds are lost by wafer thin margins which under FPTP is lethal. You then end up rueing the fact you got Trump’s Alaska lead down to single figures when a couple hundred more lawn signs could have swung you Florida.

Aye, especially when winning Alaska nets you 3 electoral college votes, but Florida gets you 29 (and Texas 38)

[El Pollo Diablo]

True, though I don't for a second expect Biden to be distracted. That said, if it goes for Biden, it'll be an interesting unexpected consequence of all this <handwave>

[Little waster]

True, though I don't for a second expect Biden to be distracted. That said, if it goes for Biden, it'll be an interesting unexpected consequence of all this <handwave>

Although because I like arguing, even with myself, Biden winning places like Alaska could put the Republicans into a death-spiral, at least for a term or two, and if he is facing a potentially hostile Senate and SCOTUS a true landslide victory gives the POTUS a lot of authority with a clear mandate.

I imagine there are also down-ticket effects as well, the House should go Democrat but isn't guaranteed, the Senate will probably lean Republican but with a little push could become split or on a very good night could tip Democrat. A narrow Presidential win pitched against a hostile Senate and SCOTUS (and even House) is going to severely hamper Biden's ability to get anything done and may consign him (and the Democrats) to a single term.

If the Democrats gamble and spread themselves thin they could pick up both House and Senate and see solidly-red Republican States flip giving them a much easier time in office. Factor in the possibility to undo a lot of Republican voter suppression legislation and gerrymandering (and with my cynic's hat on implement their own versions), a dream night in the Fall could cement Democrat electoral dominance for a generation. So expending Biden's campaign resources in the likes of Texas may pay-off bigly. Similarly Biden spending more in Texas means Trump also needs to spend more in Texas so basically IALBMCTT as we used to say in the Old Country.

Or the Democrats could lose everything due to 73 hanging chads in Palm Beach.


Temptation, temptation ....

[Woodchopper]

True, though I don't for a second expect Biden to be distracted. That said, if it goes for Biden, it'll be an interesting unexpected consequence of all this <handwave>

Although because I like arguing, even with myself, Biden winning places like Alaska could put the Republicans into a death-spiral, at least for a term or two, and if he is facing a potentially hostile Senate and SCOTUS a true landslide victory gives the POTUS a lot of authority with a clear mandate.

I imagine there are also down-ticket effects as well, the House should go Democrat but isn't guaranteed, the Senate will probably lean Republican but with a little push could become split or on a very good night could tip Democrat. A narrow Presidential win pitched against a hostile Senate and SCOTUS (and even House) is going to severely hamper Biden's ability to get anything done and may consign him (and the Democrats) to a single term.

If the Democrats gamble and spread themselves thin they could pick up both House and Senate and see solidly-red Republican States flip giving them a much easier time in office. Factor in the possibility to undo a lot of Republican voter suppression legislation and gerrymandering (and with my cynic's hat on implement their own versions), a dream night in the Fall could cement Democrat electoral dominance for a generation. So expending Biden's campaign resources in the likes of Texas may pay-off bigly. Similarly Biden spending more in Texas means Trump also needs to spend more in Texas so basically IALBMCTT as we used to say in the Old Country.

Or the Democrats could lose everything due to 73 hanging chads in Palm Beach.


Temptation, temptation ....

There were important down ticket effects in 2008, when Obama beat Bush and the Democrats won eight Senate seats from the Republicans (including Alaska and North Carolina).

[El Pollo Diablo]

(Obama beat McCain)

[lpm]

The Alaska Senate race is more interesting than any Presidential hopes, but the same applies - win Alaska and you've probably already won elsewhere.

A reminder of the Senate races (with Cook Partisan Voting Index score, showing the generic lean of each state). Current split 53-47. There are 35 races in 2020.

Assuming the loss of Alabama, Democrats need 4 wins to take it to 50-50 victory under Biden's VP. In 2018, the House was a huge blue wave, but the Democrats had far worse success in Senate races.

Democrats - 10 safe seats (unless there's a spectacular reversal)

D+12 Massachusetts
D+10 Rhode Island
D+7 New Jersey
D+7 Illinois
D+6 Delaware
D+5 Oregon
D+3 New Mexico
D+1 New Hampshire
D+1 Virginia
D+1 Minnesota

Democrats - 1 possible Republican target

D+1 Michigan

Democrats - 1 almost certainly lost seat

R+14 Alabama

Republicans - 2 almost certainly lost seats

D+1 Colorado (Cory Gardner)
R+5 Arizona (Martha McSally)

Republicans - 7 key targets

D+3 Maine (Susan Collins)
R+3 Iowa (Joni Ernst)
R+3 North Carolina (Thom Tillis)
R+5 Georgia (special) (Kelly Loeffler)
R+11 Montana (Steve Daines)
R+5 Georgia (regular) (David Perdue)

Republicans - 4 stretch targets

R+8 South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
R+8 Texas (John Cornyn)
R+9 Alaska (Dan Sullivan )
R+13 Kansas

Republicans - 11 safe seats

R+9 Mississippi
R+11 Louisiana
R+14 Nebraska
R+14 South Dakota
R+14 Tennessee
R+15 Arkansas
R+15 Kentucky
R+19 Idaho
R+19 West Virginia
R+20 Oklahoma
R+25 Wyoming

[Vertigowooyay]

Trump has postponed his New Hampshire rally tomorrow because of bad weather (checks notes)... not happening there.

[dyqik]

Trump has postponed his New Hampshire rally tomorrow because of bad weather (checks notes)... not happening there.

There's a tropical storm coming through here, 50 miles south of the rally location. Both here and there are under flash flood and tornado watch.

Hopefully his faithful are camping near the site already.

[Vertigowooyay]

Trump has postponed his New Hampshire rally tomorrow because of bad weather (checks notes)... not happening there.

There's a tropical storm coming through here, 50 miles south of the rally location. Both here and there are under flash flood and tornado watch.

Hopefully his faithful are camping near the site already.

Local weather forecast for where the rally is has it as 78F and partly cloudy. But I’m sure the WH isn’t using the storm as a cover for sh.tty attendance...

[dyqik]

Trump has postponed his New Hampshire rally tomorrow because of bad weather (checks notes)... not happening there.

There's a tropical storm coming through here, 50 miles south of the rally location. Both here and there are under flash flood and tornado watch.

Hopefully his faithful are camping near the site already.

Local weather forecast for where the rally is has it as 78F and partly cloudy. But I’m sure the WH isn’t using the storm as a cover for sh.tty attendance...

No, it doesn't.

As I said, I'm 50 miles away, and watching the forecast because of a tropical storm.

[Bird on a Fire]

Looks like it's gonna be pretty wet at the very least. And a bit blowy.

[tenchboy]

Lap it up SUCKERS!!!

[Woodchopper]

(Obama beat McCain)

Ah yes, senior moment there

[Martin_B]

Lap it up SUCKERS!!!

I wonder, if Trump loses the election, how many of Trump's friends will admit to crimes only to have Trump immediately grant clemency before his leaves office?

Mind you, you know all those stories of previous administrations wrecking the White House offices prior to moving out which all turn out to be false? I wouldn't put it past some of this administration actually wrecking offices, should they lose in November.

[tenchboy]

Lap it up SUCKERS!!!

I wonder, if Trump loses the election, how many of Trump's friends will admit to crimes only to have Trump immediately grant clemency before his leaves office?

The president's commutation does not void a criminal conviction as a pardon does.

So, legally, is he still a criminal then?
Can the pardon be over-ridden and the sentence reïnstated?

[tenchboy]

Lap it up SUCKERS!!!

I wonder, if Trump loses the election, how many of Trump's friends will admit to crimes only to have Trump immediately grant clemency before his leaves office?

The president's commutation does not void a criminal conviction as a pardon does.

So, legally, is he still a criminal then?
Can the pardon be over-ridden and the sentence reïnstated?

[Vertigowooyay]

Lap it up SUCKERS!!!

Ladies and gentlemen... the law and order President.

[dyqik]

Looks like Trump has pissed off Mueller enough for him to write an Op-Ed in the Washington Post.

Also, a large state poll out of Texas showing Trump down 5 to Biden.

[bjn]

Looks like Trump has pissed off Mueller enough for him to write an Op-Ed in the Washington Post.

Also, a large state poll out of Texas showing Trump down 5 to Biden.

Feck, hope that carries on down ticket. Texas Senate seats are up for grabs this time round.

[lpm]

Poll in Nebraska-2 giving Biden +7. Trump won by +2 in 2016.

Might seem mad to look at a Congressional District, but Obama deliberately targeted NE-2 in 2008 to protect against a 269 vs 269 tie - and just won it.

Nebraska is 5 EV, 2 given to the winner of the state overall, 3 given to the winners in each of the 3 districts. NE-2 is Omaha, the rest of the state is basically rural Trump lands.

In 2020, if Biden takes WI and MI, plus Arizona, but fails to capture PA and FL, then NE-2 is the tie breaker.

- If Trump wins NE-2, it's 269 vs 269 tie and Trump wins the House of Representatives vote
- Give NE-2 to Biden and it's 270 vs 268. (Not that Trump would concede, he'd attempt unfaithful electors, claim fraud etc)

There's about a 1% chance of a 269 vs 269 happening, according to the models.

[El Pollo Diablo]

The steadiness of the general election polls showing Biden in front of Trump is very reassuring. The last poll showing Trump in front was at the start of April, although there have been a few ties in amongst the torrent of polls showing Biden ahead.

That said, all of it counts for nothing if Trump somehow comes back to a better polling position. But if the economy and the pandemic stay bad there (and currently there isn't reason to doubt they will) it's very hard to see how that will happen. But still, events. If Biden carks it then that'll be fascinating.

[El Pollo Diablo]

I wonder about the Georgia special senate election. All five candidates (two republican, three democrat) will be voted for at the same time. If no candidate gets over 50% of the vote, the top two will have a run-off election.

But the numbers don't look good for the democrats. In total there's about 40% of the vote for the dems and 50% for the republicans, but because the republicans have only two candidates, there's a strong chance of both of them going through to the run-off.

There'd be a much stronger chance of a democrat getting through to the run-off if one of them could be the preferred candidate. It's an odd way to run an election, to my eyes, but the democrats seem to be playing the game very badly.